Gaussian Distribution being questioned
Robert Wilde writes "The Financial Times is reporting in two stories that a group of scientists have discovered that any scale-independent system does not follow the traditional Gaussian Bell Curve but a new curve. " Interesting implications-for above systems. For what I can gather from the article, for those systems in which this curve is more appropriate, rare events will occur more often then predicted by the Gaussian distribution. Anyone have more comments on this?
The use of the gausian curve is based on the assumption that the random variable we are considering is actually gereated as an average of many many independent random variables. It has been shown for all 'reasonable' independent random variables in the limit their average will be a gausian distribution. This is straightforwad mathematics no arguing with this.
As such from a mathematical point of view this has nothing to do with replacing the gausian curve...it is still clearly the most 'natural' mathematical curve. However, what I understand the authors to be claiming is that certain types of real world events are not actually gaussian and are described better by this model. This shouldn't be that surprising as often the 'extreme' cases are not caused by a mere sum of the independent random variables mentioned earlier.
For instance intelligence might be regarded as the influence of a great deal of small random variables (how some genes got arranged upbring etc..) but the truly tale end cases such as mental retardation do not occur because all of these factors go bad, (someone who is retarded is the result of some genetic defect usually not a combination of bad upbringing poor nutrition etc..). This is probably not the kind of thing the distribution describes but it shows that the gaussian really never has been the end all and be all.
So while this is undoubtly a very interesting subbject it really isn't that exciting. Ohh and the claim that the greater incidence of natural disasters disproves the gaussian was really BS, while they may not be gaussian this doesn't appear to be a large enough sample size to make such definitive claims
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