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Linus Looks at His Crystal Ball
Magorak writes "There's an interesting article I found here about Linus Torvalds' take on the future of the software and hardware industry. There's tidbits about Linux's future itself, the competition with Microsoft, and about customized software becoming more important. It also gives us an interesting view on how Linus sees the future of computers and technology. "
According to Linus, Transmeta "makes stuff". So, I assume, Linus was hired to help them make stuff. Linus will be bringing his expertise in stuff design and probably begin expanding into actual stuff manufacturing. With the team they have, I imagine they'll make quite good stuff. Maybe useful stuff. Definitely stuff of some sort or other.
/dev/stuff file or maybe even /proc/stuff, a new stuff driver and an expanded stuff interface). I hear O'Reilly will be partnering with Transmeta to release "Stuff in a Nutshell" and the new "Stuff Administrator's Handbook".
Perhaps the stuff will use Linux, but Linus was not hired to work on Linux (although this is not precluded by his contract). I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some of Linus' work go into Linux (like a
Citizens Against Plate Tectonics
>> . There will ALWAYS be a need for constant upgrades while the proprietary software model reigns king
Ah, but by the same token, the proprietary oftware business if pretty reliant on the need to upgrade. That's why I think Linus is right on the mark.
As Microsoft continues to add features to Office, each new feature will appeal to a smaller percentage of users. And as PC prices drop, it's going to be harder and harder to justify a $600 word processor, much less a $300 upgrade every 24 months.
I've watched PC software evolve since the beginning, and there has always been a sort of promised land on the horizon. We were always just a hair short of where we wanted to be. GUIs were unreliable at first, they were too slow. Upgrades seemed necessary, just to make it from Z80-CP/M to a stable 32-bit GUI platform with decent multitasking. It took time, and we bought upgrades along the way.
Now, GUIs and multitasking just work, and we don't think much of it. Windows works pretty well most of the time, Gnome/KDE just need a year or two of polish. And then we're done. The PC has finally evolved to where you turn on a new computer, and no matter how cheap it is, you'll get a pretty snappy GUI interface. And making it twice as "snappy" is no longer a big deal. Most "new" features in current software upgrades are either bells, whistles, or advertisements.
This situation will probably make it pretty difficult to charge a lot of money for the latest version of software in upcoming years. John Dvorak's article yesterday showed rare (for him) insight, when he observed that Linux's desktop challenge will eventually come in the form of a $199 PC that comes with a complete office suite.
yeah, i have one too.
it was an accident when i was a kid, i had one of those bmx bikes and i landed bad, and did a full nutcrusher on the highbar. the left one is okay, but the right one is gone, gone.
it was kinda embarrassing at my junior high, because they had those damn hardwood chairs, and if i wore thin shorts you could hear the "clink, clink, clink" as i settled in my chair. i was late to class a lot, so you can imagine what it was like.
i guess they're using silicon now, but i don't wanna get in one of those fucking class action lawsuits if my hair and teeth start falling out or something.
my crystal ball is doing fine, thx. it doesn't talk to me the way linus' does. maybe thats what the new transmeta appliances are, rf networked prosthetic crystal testicles or something.
Doesn't anyone else here think it's kind of odd that all of a sudden many stories are popping up about Linux on the newswires, when, if you look at it, there really wasn't a news event that predicated the need for an article? Now, I'm going to theorize on a few possibilities:
;) is that this is a plot by the OSS movement to Stick it to the Man and to create good vibes towards OSS and Linux in general.
1) Linux makes news. Good news makes money. Money makes people happy.
2) The increasing amount of tidbits related to Transmeta (yet another reference!) and Linus' relationship to it are nothing but fodder to increase awareness about the obvious branding of Trasmeta's product without said product actually being even known. This awareness and publicity are precisely the kind of calculated moves I would take if I were trying to hype the Next Big Thing (tm). I might note that, for the most part, the actual news item, "Software Price Crashes" in this case, are really of secondary importance. If you'll notice, the discussion of Linus, precedes the implication of Redhat's IPO with precedes the blurb about Transmeta, which then precedes the meat and potatoes of the article. Granted, this is an often used trick in the news industry to make sure people have a background for the material to follow, but isn't this a bit much?
3) (The least plausible
I admit that all of this is supposition and is baseless. I have no proof to back any of this up. IANAL. I'm just an avid slashdotter. AT the very least, it's good to not only read the articles presented, but to read past them and between the lines to derive the intent behind the posts in the first place.
I don't think that the need for upgrades will disappear in the near future. There are two reasons for this:
Purpose built devices are great, but I think that the future of purpose-built devices will be soft upgradeable as well.
___ This sig is in boldface to emphasize its importance!
The same reason people keep coffeemakers next to their stoves - stoves make coffee, too, but coffeemakers make it better, faster, and with a more appropriate UI.
But all of those are things that can be overcome. No one I know keeps a manual typewriter next to their computer. A lot of people with good internet access don't keep cd players, cassette players, or radios next to their computers. I no longer keep a newspaper in my house - it has been completely integrated with my computer. I know longer keep a TV guide next to my television - even though the TV guide has more information and a better UI than my digital cable, it's easier to find the TV than the TV AND a current periodical.
By contrast, I don't watch TV on my computer - that's too frustrating and expensive. I still keep maps in my car - again, the alternative is too expensive. I don't send e-mail through my cellphone, and even though I wish I could, it wouldn't be the only way I sent e-mail.
In summary - my girlfriend uses a knife to cut food, and scissors to cut paper and cloth, because she often has to do things requiring the precision scissors afford. I will use a knife to cut anything, because it's easier than looking for scissors, and I'm a lazy sod. There are many people who don't want all-in-one devices, but a lot of them will use them once they have them.
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