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Betting on Y2K Disasters
Doug Muth writes "According to
this article in Wired News, there is a company that is taking bets on which disasters will occur when Y2K comes around. Think a commercial airliner will go down? That's 300-1 odds. Think armageddon will occur? That's 1,000,000-1 odds, though even if you win, I think collecting on that bet would be a bit pointless."
I'll give 50 to 1 odds that someone makes a submission to slashdot on Jan. 1, 2000, with the title "First Article! I'm l33t!!" :)
Juiced? Or Not?
I'm sure Jesus would be REAL happy to hear that people are gambling over his return.
I'm sure they could cast lots over his clothes too...oh wait... been done. nevermind
I post links to stuff here
There's a 1,000,000 to 1 chance of Armageddon? Am I the only one that thinks it worrying that apparently Armageddon at the turn of the millennium has better odds than winning the lottery?????
- The FAA traffic monitor system runs on a different clock than the typical mm/dd/yy, or the unix 32-bit clock (and I though that it's turnover was due before the end of this year, or about this time next year), such that Y2K should not affect these.
- Most airlines are requiring their Y2K-readiness exec to fly on Jan 1, 2000, prompting these execs to make absolutely sure that they're ready.
Sure, ther will bound to be problems with the air*PORT* system, with schedules going bonkers, lost luggage, and that stuff, but I doubt this will cause the loss of life. If anything, I'd give an airplane crash 10,000:1 odds, and move the bank failure to about 10:1 odds. The banks don't directly have anyone lives in their hands, and many of the smaller bank chains have been slow to implement Y2K as 'it's not that big a problem'.I'll still be getting a written proof of my account status in early Dec, though my bank has promised Y2K complience.
"Pinky, you've left the lens cap of your mind on again." - P&TB
"I can see my house from here!" - ST:
Banks running NT crash: 10:1
Microsoft blames the crash on time's "exceptional and in-depth knowledge of date manipulation on NT workstations": 5:1
Odds of Armageddon on Jan. 1st: 1,000,000:1
Odds of finding one sober person when the Armageddon comes: 1,000,000,000:1
"There is no surer way to ruin a good discussion than to contaminate it with the facts."
10) IRS doesn't manage to complete remediation efforts. On second thought...
b leh inadvertently trip button marked 'Doomsday Device', unable to blame End of World on Bill Gates
9) IRS manages to complete remediation efforts
8) Hotels booked solid, Antichrist's family forced to sleep in a manger
7) The election of anyone currently running for the presidency of the United States
6) Electrical power fails on Jan 2cd when survivalists simultaneously switch off their kerosene generators
5) The Artist Formerly Known As Prince realizes the futility of a career entirely based on "1999", goes insane, burns down World Trade Center in Minneapolis, gets bodyslammed by Gov. Ventura
4) Rising mound of Y2K memorabilia towers over United States, topples, raises sea level 2 feet when it falls into the Pacific, drowns Antarctic penguins and Tokyo
3) Feuding geeks arguing over merits of KDE/Gnome/EMACS/vi/GTK/Motif/GNU/Linux/*BSD/blah/
2) God certifies the Universe Y2K-compliant, inadvertently forgets nearby meteor storm, is sued by rampaging trial lawyers, points out Acts of Me exemption clause
1) Entire planet shuts down when Jan 1st is declared World Hangover Day
We want endless gardens of data, where the bits can flower, flourish and reproduce. -- Andy Mueller-Maguhn
Looks like I'm going to make some money. They're taking a US firearms sales increase at 200-1 odds. US firearms sales are already up a few percentage points over last year. Even if December sales are relativly static, I'm sure the last rush of nuts will pull up December sales.
And at those odds, it's better than the RH IPO.
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