Forrester Report: Linux Hysteria Will Fade In 2000

sirch wrote to us with the latest research from Forrester Reports. The report alleges that this year's massive hyping of Linux will fade in 2000, as well as stating that it's not probable that CIOs will be switching over in massive numbers to Linux. However, the report than goes on to say that Linux will probably see continued growth, through "dominating new application segments." Not really that surprising of a report. One of the interesting points is the prediction that by 2004, the other Unices and Linux will have converged to the point that binaries for any one will probably run on all the others.

Comments

Re:first haiku

[Frank Sullivan]

Many will respond
To this silly thread; waste points;
Scores will rise and fall
---
120
chars is barely sufficient

not surprising

[ToLu the Happy Furby]

Haven't taken the time to read the report yet, but I have to say that if the synopsis here is accurate, I'd tend to agree. But I'm assuming that the biggest reason Linux'll fall out of the "next-big-thing" spot is not just because all hype runs its course (although that'll have a lot to do with it), but because of Win2000.

And it's not just because, come Feb. 17, the same clueless media types babbling about Linux today will be talking up Win2K equally cluelessly. Hate to say it (well actually I don't hate to say it at all), but from all reports it looks as if MS has finally put together a competent OS. Now that they've reportedly fixed most all of the glaringly laughable faults of NT 4 (low uptime under strenuous use, DLL hell, forced reboots after minor reconfigurations, etc.), Linux will have to compete more on philosophical issues--open vs. closed source; full control and modularity vs. one consistent interface--than on obvious superiorities.

Frankly, folks, we have to realize that a big part of the reason Linux got its day in the sun this past year-and-a-half is because NT 5^H^H^H^HWin2K was about...a year-and-a-half late. Now, I think in that time Linux has made some important and irreversible changes for the better in the computer industry. For one thing, you can bet that without any credible server-side competition, Win2K would be a lot less polished than it will be now, and that's a change for the better. For another, I think even MS has to think twice nowadays about trying to fool the public into adopting new, closed standards (witness their recent support of XML in Office 2000 and elsewhere). Finally, I think the old "you can't get fired for buying Microsoft" climate is beginning to be questioned in many if not most companies.

But, suddenly Linux won't have the advantage of competing with patched-up 3-year old software. Now, on the other hand, three years from now Win2K will probably be on SP 6 or 7, awaiting the next much-delayed overhaul, while Linux (or perhaps some other free unix-alike? HURD perhaps??) will be chugging along with its steady organic improvements.

But for the next little while, Linux will have some real competition. And, while it may slow up corporate adoption in the short term, that's a Good Thing. I know most all of us here believe in the superiority of open-source development. Now it'll have the chance to really prove itself.

Any credibility?

[Uruk]

With the internet and linux in general, things change so fast, that I find it extremely hard to give any credit to people who write reports like this. Not that they're idiots, or that I'm flaming them, or that what they have to say isn't important, I just don't think it's going to be very accurate.

Consider that linux is much much bigger than a few hackers or even a large group of hackers. I've been using linux since the brand new 1.0 kernels, and things have changed so incredibly fast.

Really, if Linus were to write a report about where linux is going to be in 4 years, I don't think I'd believe him either.

I don't think I'm the only person who thinks that as far as technology is concerned, 4 years is practically forever. There are also so many other companies (like transmeta) that have things cooking that nobody knows about yet, I think it's foolish to make predictions about what things are going to be like 1 year from now.

That said, I'm not sure what purpose articles that try to play fortune teller serve.

Just my $0.02

Linux "Hysteria"

[twit]

Strangely enough, I agree. Sort of.

Linux has been over-hyped somewhat in the past year. By over-hyped I mean that valuations of Linux-related stock has far exceeded revenue. Fair enough - it has, by huge margins. Most likely this overvaluation is exacerbated by the paucity of Linux stock out there; most of it remains in the hands of their directors. This is endemic to the high-tech industry, of course, but it does mean that when they do cash in (hello, ESR) stock values will plunge.

I work with a number of business analysts (I'm not one, but they make for good lunch-time conversation), and they've come to the same conclusion: Linux doesn't offer strong enough added value to induce a CIO to switch corporate desktops outright. On the server side, it may well, but the majority of OS licenses are sold on desktop computers rather than servers (good thing that Linux isn't in the licensing game, no?).

In any case. While companies may come and go, and I fully expect at least a couple of Linux pioneers to fold in the new year, it's important to remind ourselves that no company has a monopoly on Linux. If Red Hat should fold, it would be a tragedy to lose so many talented developers who would have to work elsewhere for their suppers, but it would not be the end of Linux as an operating system. So long as people contribute to it, Linux as a phenomenon remains vital.

We all may be a bit sadder for a crash in stock values, and some of us much poorer, but it's nothing unexpected and nothing to worry about.

Hysteria indeed.

--

Hysteria VS market share

[Strauss]

Oh, I can see it now. The 200+ comments, all reading something like: "Linux is on the upswing, why would it fade? It's going to take off!".

Just a quick reminder: It's the linux hysteria that's going to fade (according to the report; I reserve judgement). Not the market share; not the value; not the number of users. But look for Linux IPOs to be less spectacular; look for linux announcements from companies to slow down (partially because, hey, many are already on the bandwagon!); and, look for Linux stock prices to drop. Possibly a lot. The day traders and capital gains types will eventually figure out that a company that doesn't make money (with apologies, many do not, at least yet, turn a profit) isn't a "good" investment.

Just some thoughts.
-Strauss