The "grid-parity" (same price of utility electricity and solar electricity) was a long shot a few years ago, but we are getting closer. How?
The biggest market in the world is Germany, with more than 50% of sold PV. The laws there set a feed-in tariff (a electricity price at which the producer sells the electricity) for 20 years. This tariff is going down every year (means if you install today you get 20years of XX. If you install next year 20 years of XX-5%.
As usuall, market is the driving force. If companies do not achieve this price reduction, they will just not survive. But the technology evolution in modules makes it possible to reach this 5% yearly. How? A mix of better technology and economy of scale. Take a look after September to the proceedings of the European PV Conference and you will see some serious content about that.
For EU countries, system prices of 3$ achieve grid parity. In Hawaii, 4-5$ is already profitable. In California, 3-4$. Those markets with grid parity, if laws are put in place to make it easy to put PV on the roof, will boom with demand; but if the grid is further "protected" from distributed generation, it will take longer.
I will try to put a summary to the interested folks around:
A photovoltaic system is composed today by: - Module - Inverter DC/AC - Mounting system - Cabling - Measuring/Protection electrical stuff
Most of the cost today is the module. Systems go (net) for 4-5$/Watt. More efficient cells (and modules) mean less installation costs. For the future, it will be important since cell and module prices will go down.
Today, in California, if you take a system lifetime of 25 years, the kWh equivalent "price" is about 25-30cent.
System price decrease is expected to be 5-10% yearly for the next 5-10 years at least. This means that very soon the PV power will be cheaper than the one sold by the utility.
PV systems are perfect for distributed energy: a centralized power plant is not really cheaper or more efficient than a 5kW roof installation. And the energy transport kills the small margin that you had in favour of the big thing. That is why most utilities are not hot about PV: it is against their business model.
For the moment, it is not cheap to get "disconnected" from the grid. Therefore, a mix of PV and other electricity is necessary. PV has a nice peak at max. consumption peak. However, the evening consumption must be covered otherwise. Wind, biomass, ocean waves, geothermal, whatever.
PV in order to charge e-cars is OK today already. A car that uses 10 liter to do 100km, at a 20kW mean power, is using 20kWh energy for 10 liter gas, at 1$/liter it would be 50 cent/kWh. Make the calculation with your local gas price/gallon and you see that, even today, it is competitive. And cleaner. Only e-cars are not yet developed/deployed as they need to be.
About Solar-thermal energy for cold- it works for mid-big sized equipments, it is cheaper and especially more reliable than electricity... PV supporting electrical AC is still a bit more expensive but both run a nice race.
Ah, the typical guy asks about energy payback times: depending on technology, after 1-4 years your system has produced the energy needed to make it. Longer times belong to PV prehistory and to right-wing-thinktank analysis.
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Hi,
The "grid-parity" (same price of utility electricity and solar electricity) was a long shot a few years ago, but we are getting closer. How?
The biggest market in the world is Germany, with more than 50% of sold PV. The laws there set a feed-in tariff (a electricity price at which the producer sells the electricity) for 20 years. This tariff is going down every year (means if you install today you get 20years of XX. If you install next year 20 years of XX-5%.
As usuall, market is the driving force. If companies do not achieve this price reduction, they will just not survive. But the technology evolution in modules makes it possible to reach this 5% yearly. How? A mix of better technology and economy of scale. Take a look after September to the proceedings of the European PV Conference and you will see some serious content about that.
For EU countries, system prices of 3$ achieve grid parity. In Hawaii, 4-5$ is already profitable. In California, 3-4$. Those markets with grid parity, if laws are put in place to make it easy to put PV on the roof, will boom with demand; but if the grid is further "protected" from distributed generation, it will take longer.
Hi,
I will try to put a summary to the interested folks around:
A photovoltaic system is composed today by:
- Module
- Inverter DC/AC
- Mounting system
- Cabling
- Measuring/Protection electrical stuff
Most of the cost today is the module. Systems go (net) for 4-5$/Watt.
More efficient cells (and modules) mean less installation costs. For the future, it will be important since cell and module prices will go down.
Today, in California, if you take a system lifetime of 25 years, the kWh equivalent "price" is about 25-30cent.
System price decrease is expected to be 5-10% yearly for the next 5-10 years at least. This means that very soon the PV power will be cheaper than the one sold by the utility.
PV systems are perfect for distributed energy: a centralized power plant is not really cheaper or more efficient than a 5kW roof installation. And the energy transport kills the small margin that you had in favour of the big thing. That is why most utilities are not hot about PV: it is against their business model.
For the moment, it is not cheap to get "disconnected" from the grid. Therefore, a mix of PV and other electricity is necessary. PV has a nice peak at max. consumption peak. However, the evening consumption must be covered otherwise. Wind, biomass, ocean waves, geothermal, whatever.
PV in order to charge e-cars is OK today already. A car that uses 10 liter to do 100km, at a 20kW mean power, is using 20kWh energy for 10 liter gas, at 1$/liter it would be 50 cent/kWh. Make the calculation with your local gas price/gallon and you see that, even today, it is competitive. And cleaner. Only e-cars are not yet developed/deployed as they need to be.
About Solar-thermal energy for cold- it works for mid-big sized equipments, it is cheaper and especially more reliable than electricity... PV supporting electrical AC is still a bit more expensive but both run a nice race.
Ah, the typical guy asks about energy payback times: depending on technology, after 1-4 years your system has produced the energy needed to make it. Longer times belong to PV prehistory and to right-wing-thinktank analysis.
Cheers!