Of-course they are working for it. They are working for it, their work allows them to be paid that.
Just because you are not making that, but making much less, while doing something very specific, and you think that whatever it is you do constitutes work, but what they do does not, has no bearing on the fact that they are doing something that allows them to be paid that.
But all of this is beside the point, which is - if you are going to be charged 94% taxes on some specific amount if you declare that amount as your income, you will modify your behavior and make sure nobody sees anything like that as your income.
WRONG!!! Inflation is BY DEFINITION rise of prices throughout the economy.
- right. That's why it should not be called economics, but should be called 'tarro card reading' or whatever, and it's political BS, because before US went off the gold standard the definition was very simple and clear - expansion of money supply
Prices do not EXPAND or CONTRACT, prices RISE or FALL. This double speak that they have been involved with, ever since the establishment of the Fed has changed the perception of the people when it concerns economics and money. People don't know what a dollar is, Bernanke doesn't know. It's because dollar is nothing. It's 0 of anything, but it used to be exact equivalent of some amount of gold.
1988 edition of Websterâ(TM)s Dictionary defines inflation as follows: âoeAn increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level.â - it's an increase in volume of money.
It causes prices to go up, but it's first of all an increase in volume of money. Just because they can redefine a word, doesn't mean the can redefine the idea.
Wrong. That's not possible, or I'd be rich arbitraging exchange rates between renminbi and (say) euro. China's pegging their currency to dollar would just cause exchange rates between renminbi and unpegged currencies to float.
- Chinese central bank is printing currency to buy the USD out of banks, that hold USD for the companies, who send their products to USA, Europe, etc. Thus they are subsidizing the US consumer by buying US currency. Then they buy US debt with that.
As there is more Chinese money due to this in China, there is more demand for the same amount of commodity, thus prices go up in Chinese money, so china sees huge price spikes, to the order of 15-25% a year. Chinese are forced to buy at these levels, as they are the ones using this stuff for production. This pushes the prices up for everybody else who buys these same commodities, because they trade in USD for these commodities.
Whether the local exchange rate can be used for arbitrage - sure it can, but everybody is busy printing their currency now, it's a race to the bottom in terms of currency value. Good thing Switzerland does not. So Franc is at all time high, while unemployment is 3%. Did they teach you that in your macro-'economics' class? Because by the Keynesian shamanism this is a paradox.
So? There's been no large fluctuations of USD to EUR since last year which kinda proves my point. QE2 had essentially no effect on the economy.
- CAD used to be 60 cents US back in 96 I believe. So that's a 'fluctuation'? Franc used to be 25 cents. That's a 'fluctuation'?
Euro and Yen are flawed currencies for the reasons similar to US. But Japanese have a large productive sector and most of their public debt is to the Japanese people. Big difference. Europe is busy bailing out German and French bankers (that's what it means, when they talk about 'bailing out' Greece. It's bad for the Greeks in the long term, but at least those bankers, with close gov't ties will be bailed out.)
Again, I don't consider USD or Euro to be money. These fiat currencies do not store value.
Unless you are resource-constrained. Which you are. There's only so much oil to be pumped and we're at the peak right now (or past it). There's only so much arable land, and it's peaked few years ago. With biofuels adding additional pressure. That's what causes the price spikes.
And no, inflation is NOT possible without almost immediately rising wages. That's Macro 101.
- nonsense. There is inflation going on right now and wages are staying where they are or dropping. Inflation is expansion of monetary supply, not rising prices, as they teach you in your Keynesian schools of 'economics', (which it's not.)
Again, USA can only 'export' inflation if country's local currency is pegged to dollar. So USA cannot export inflation to Japan or Europe, for example.
- nonsense.
As USA export inflation to China, the subsequent rise in commodities prices push inflation to the rest of the world. China uses commodities to produce for most of the world, and the higher prices for the commodities then affect everybody, including Europe, Japan and the rest. Besides, Europe is doing its own rounds of inflation just fine, and Japan bought into using inflation to fight the 'evils' of deflation in the nineties and though they printed only enough for prices to fall a little or to stay where they were before, it still is inflation. They didn't print enough to cause massive price hikes, but they were supposed to have massive price drops, and they 'saved' their population from the 'evil' of having low prices, thank you very much, all to subsidize the Western consumer by stealing the purchasing power of the Japanese producer.
There's been no significant changes in the USD exchange rates recently. So this is also false.
- really, so CAD and AUD being above USD, the Swiss Franc being at near 1.20 (thank you, thank you), the Japanese yen staying where it is right now even with their insane policy of inflation and after their catastrophes of the late, the NZD at all times high, even Euro, with all the problems of Europe being at what, 1.41 to 1? I don't know what you consider significant, but to me, truly, the only significant thing is this. That's the only real money AFAIC. Not an investment. Not a commodity. Money.
Actually, it's close to 20%. And it's really real - China and India are growing that fast (China is almost back to double-digits growth).
But let me explain something to you, that they don't teach you in your 'economics' classes apparently.
A growing economy with a growing demand GROWS SUPPLY. That means the prices go down, not up, in growing economies, because there is money to be made by increasing supply and selling more, and that happens because the market sends signals that more of whatever is required, so prices on that 'whatever' go up and then there is more supply. It's really that simple.
The demand is artificial, it comes from inflation, that's why the prices for commodities are in a 10 year bull market, not because there is more demand from China. If China produces more demand it also produces more supply. If China cannot produce more supply, others produce more supply.
The prices for oil are at an all time LOW today. All time low if counted in real money. 10 silver cents US per gallon. That's lower than in recorded history of USA ever, the lowest in history was 25cents, but of-course they also had people checking your oil at the gas pump, so maybe the comparison is just a little off by that amount.
That's what we call "a prediction" here in economic science. Can you make a corresponding prediction? What would happen if QE3 is not enacted (I know that you believe that it would)?
- economic science in universities of the world is a misnomer. I can make predictions, I made predictions and based my behavior on them, that's why I left that continent 2 years ago. That's why I sold properties and got gold. I make predictions.
Oh, sure I will bet. I will absolutely bet. I will bet that there will be QE3, even if not under that name before September 5th.
As to Dow dropping - this is purely an inflation driven rise, there is nothing else at all that pushes those numbers up, they are supposed to fall in a deflationary bust, but since the fiat is being pumped into the system, it's going up.
As to commodities - yes, there is demand. But not to the tune of 10% per year prices going up, which they are. The demand is created with the new fiat that the Fed pushes into the system, and with the response to that push by other nations, who devalue their currencies as soon as their manufacturers put the USD into banks, which they get from US because of those other governments subsidizing the US consumer.
There's no significant inflation in the USA. The average wage has actually gone _down_ this month and was stagnant before that.
- Ha! USA exports inflation to the rest of the world, because it's not producing shit, but its buying the products from producer nations, so the fiat ends up in banks in Asia. In US the 0% interest at the Fed's discount window allows the financials to take up that debt and make the spread on T-bill purchases, which is another way for the Fed to monetize Treasury debt.
That and so called currency swaps with other countries, which again, are a way to monetize US debt.
As to wages going down - that is your response to me claiming there is huge inflation?! Yes, wages are going down as they must, because that is the only weapon left in US productive arsenal. Unless government kills off a lot of regulations and taxes and subsidies to monopolies and stops spending and inflating, there will be nothing else that US manufacturers will be able to compete on, only this - pushing wages down. They have nothing else they can do to compete at all. They can either push wages down or they can move to other countries.
This absolutely does not mean there is no inflation, it just means there is inflation AND the wages are going down. That's what it means - a double whammy.
So, how much extra money do you have that you want to bet with?
Well, Treasury and Fed. They've really stopped pumping liquidity. And this had no effect whatsoever on economy. None. Zip. Nada. The rest of your argument fails, because it contradicts reality.
- really? Bernanke said on multiple occasions that his policy helped to bring Dow up. Simultaneously he said he doesn't understand why commodities are going up.
Yes, they said QE is over. That's what they are saying. How much time before the Fed is buying T-bills again? 2 weeks? 4 weeks?
It doesn't matter what they call it, I am looking at the new T-bills issued, once the Aug 2 goes by and the so called debt 'ceiling' is once again raised, the Fed will be back buying T-bills, and Treasury will be back, printing new coupons by the ton. And the Fed will be buying them by the ton.
Oh, sorry. I've noticed that it's 'roman_mir' who has no problem living in an alternative reality. He has a privilege to rant about evil government, while sitting in world's best naturally protected country with pretty socialistic government - which happens to be a libertarian paradise in his mind.
- I lived in North America for 16 years, I moved. Just like anybody with any sense would move their business out of that country, I have all the reasons in the world to talk about this, I am an example of 'jobs leaving' or capital leaving for reasons of government destroying economy. Why would I stay and watch once again a collapse around me? No thanks.
BTW., I spend more than half of my time in Russia and Asia, but I do reside in Europe, you are right. So what? Aren't you in the story where the IMF head says something to the US government? She is not talking out of Boston, New York, right? Shouldn't you be maybe a little less hypocritical?
They can't say it's illegal. They can say it violates their contract between the licensee and licenser, but that's between them, it's a civil matter.
For these cables to be illegal, there has to be a law making them illegal, sort of like possession of, I don't know, 100 tons of heroin (and I disagree with that law as well.)
In any case, all patents should be declared void and null and never be given to anybody ever again.
Of-course electronics and lasic eye surgery and TVs and computers and cellphones fall in price. They fall in price, because that's what efficiencies and economies of scale do for production. That's what it was like, living in 19 century (not as many gadgets as today) - new shit was invented all the time and things were falling in price while dollar was rising in value.
Imagine how much more they would have fell in price if government wasn't printing all that money?
Government would have you believe that deflation is bad, while in reality, the only people who are afraid of deflation is the government, and the rest of population would be very much fine with prices falling, not rising, which would make everything more affordable, not less affordable and standards of living would go up, not down with falling prices and strengthening currency. Of-course they destroyed currency in 1971, so it can't strengthen, it's = 0, but that's why government has outlived it's purpose long ago.
The extension of credit might be more responsible, but I would like something more than your (or anyone else's) claim about it.
- inflation is increase of money supply by definition. Of-course they changed the definition past 1971, but whatever.
The Supreme Court, per the Constitution, is the ultimate arbiter of what the Constitution means.
- that's as good as having no Constitution at all.
Constitution is the las applied to government, that's why they don't uphold it but they 'interpret' it.
When it's criminal law for individuals, they don't interpret it - if you kill, you kill. They just need to prove it.
But if you are a government, all of a sudden there are all sorts of people who want to give a different meaning to any law that is supposed to apply to the government.
SCOTUS is a joke, it has outlived its purpose once it started 'interpreting' the law.
1. Who says QE ended? Just because the name 'QE' ended doesn't mean they the Fed will stop buying Treasury debt. Do you seriously believe they will risk to have higher interest rates at this time, when all of their charlatans, they call 'economists', are telling them they must stimulate and when the unemployment is getting higher (which was obvious it was going to do, stimulating economy via gov't spending only causes more imbalance in the system)?
2. QE was absolutely there to keep interest rates down to buy out Treasury debt. The Fed's real policy is obvious - monetize government's debt. They are constantly worrying about deflation in US government and in the Fed and Treasury, while deflation is the FIX for the problem of mis-allocation of resources, it's not a problem in itself, it is what should happen - contraction and a bust, so that debt can be restructured, companies can go bankrupt, spending can be stopped, credit can be reallocated from unproductive parts of economy to new productive parts of economy, it's basic stuff, which they hope you don't understand. It's what 1921 depressions has clearly shown: let the depression take course and do one thing - cut government spending by a huge amount. Recession should be have been allowed in 2001, but Clinton and Bush didn't allow it, pushed interest rates down to 1 and then 0% and started pumping money in.
Of-course Bush cut taxes, but he increased spending by a huge factor, and regulations weren't removed to allow people to compete with established monopolies, and money was printed and spent and borrowed, thus more capital was leaving. What is it supposed to do, stay and be destroyed? That's why jobs left - capital left.
3. Commodity prices are not supposed to just fall if government stops buying treasuries for a few days. There is all that money out there, created by QE2 and other bail outs and stimulus plans, any new dollar is inflation.
Somehow there is no problem for the courts 'interpreting' the law when it concerns private citizens.
So if you murder somebody, I don't see them trying to do an interpretive dance around that fact and come up with a different explanation on what that law really says.
But when it concerns the law, which is supposed to apply to the government, now all of a sudden we need an 'interpretation'?
That's a bunch of nonsense.
SCOTUS is not supposed to be interpreting the law, he is supposed to be upholding it.
There is nothing to interpret there. When somebody says: validity will not be questioned. They mean just that. That it is valid, and it cannot be declared invalid by the government. That's all there is to it. It doesn't mean it must be paid at all. But it's valid.
Same with the rest of the Constitution - it does not need interpretation, it needs honest fucking people being judges, so they would uphold the fucking law.
I used to agree with this line of thinking. The problem is the rich aren't investing in US companies. The current tax breaks are creating jobs they just happen to be in China.
- obviously, and they are correct in doing so. Anybody creating jobs in USA or other Western nations is punished today.
The punishment comes in many forms: from high taxes, to insane business regulations, to insane labor laws, to insane subsidies to the competition, but it's not just high wages of Americans or Europeans.
It's really about government causing capital flight, that sends jobs away, why else do you think it's happening?
So while cutting taxes is always good (it's never good to give money to government), but it's not enough. As long as government regulates business, creates labor laws, makes it difficult and expensive to hire people with all the laws and regulations, it's not going to happen.
If government gives employees special privileges, then it means it puts special obligations on the employers. For example minorities, women, whoever are not basically young white men have various laws providing them with ability to file lawsuits against the company, whether it be for 'wrongful termination' (even if they are terminated for performance), or be it some 'intolerable work environment' (when company gets sued for actions of some asshole working for the company), it provides an excellent reason not to hire.
If hiring over 50 people puts the company into special category, which requires it to give special treatment for whatever reason, then company won't go over that threshold, and some other company will shrink to get below it.
Minimum wage laws during millions of people sitting on unemployment is criminal.
Don't let the information that I am about to provide to prevent your spiel there, but consider that people who get paid dividends are owners of the company, and thus they get paid dividends after the company pays all its obligations and taxes, so in reality the taxes of the company ARE the taxes of those, who pay dividends (for example Buffet owns majority of his business), so whatever the business tax is (35% less whatever deductions) AND 15% dividend tax on top of that, that's the tax, not just the 15%.
But let me provide an important perspective: the people who are deciding on this "debt ceiling" ruse are in Washington DC right now, so clearly the so called 'ceiling' will be raised, don't worry about it, they are just fucking with you.
So when to worry? When the people in China and all over who hold the debt decide that your ceiling shouldn't be raised.
Of-course for the past 6 months the Fed was buying 100% of all new debt (QE2 was equal in size to the amount of new debt created in that time period for a reason, it's not a wild coincidence,) and they are buying the outstanding debt on the market as well, which isn't rolled over. They want to keep interest rates low at expense of inflation.
US government default is prohibited by the 14th amendment of the constitution
- why are you saying things without understanding them at all?
That's not what the amendment says. Read it:
14th Amendment Amendment XIV Section 1.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
ok, done with that part, next:
Section 2.
Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the executive and judicial officers of a state, or the members of the legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such state, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such state.
- by the way, being 21 at those times is like being at least 30 nowadays in terms of work experience.
Next.
Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
I could have skipped this, but whatever.
Finally:
Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any state shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
OK, how the fuck do you get from : VALIDITY SHALL NOT BE QUESTIONED
to
Defaults are prohibited?
WTF?
Listen, why don't you fucking read the fucking thing you fucking referencing first, OK?
"Validity shall not be questioned." - means it's fucking valid. Nothing else. It doesn't mean anybody must pay! It only means this: yeah, it's a valid claim.
And WHAT is the debt in question by the way? authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, - well fuck me! Clearly this is all about the debts of US, so that they always must be repaid! NOT.
I am amazed, I am fucking amazed at people here. Do you know that USA defaulted on its debts already? It defaulted on its debts and its promises already? Do you know when? 1971, when it defaulted on the promise to pay gold for the dollar, that's when it defaulted, and since then the v
First: he is probably the only person in USA who benefits from death taxes, since those are often paid by fire-selling a company, because estate is normally a bunch of assets, like companies, and to pay those taxes, the money needs to be realized.
So who is on the other side of the trade here?
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
The second point is this: when Buffet pays himself dividends, that's because he chooses not to pay himself a salary. Whatever his company makes then, is his income, because dividends are paid after his company balances the books and pays the taxes, and whatever is left over as profits, can be paid out in dividends, and he is the majority shareholder.
His income is thus taxed at 35% corporate and then 15% personal levels.
Hopefully you do realize that nobody was paying those insane percentages, you understand it, right? Nobody in their sane mind would work for 6 cents on a dollar (at 94% level) or even at 23cents on the dollar (77% level).
What do people do when faced with such calamities? They improvise, they change their behavior, they skip writing themselves a check, they use company's money and write everything off, and it was easy to write things off in those time.
Again, nobody pays stupid taxes at those stupid levels, and if somebody did, they needed a head check.
"Some prices have fallen over that time." - like what?
where could you get gasoline for 89 cents a gallon in 2003?
- it's not my number, I am using the same source, and in 2003 I was buying gasoline in Canada, not USA, it was probably around 60 cents/liter there then.
as they are more volatile than consumer prices.
- Oh? Look carefully, that's the trend over 10 years almost, they are all going up year to year, and they are part of the basis for consumer prices of finished products, and as they go higher and higher in price due to inflation (money printing), they are becoming a larger and larger percentage of the total cost, at some point it won't be labor (due to efficiencies created by better tools), but it will be actual commodity prices that will cause product prices to rise as well.
And are changes in commodity prices due to government policy?
- ha, there is only one policy that creates inflation - money printing.
sugar Dec 2003: 20.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 36.97 cents/pound, price up by over 81% Beef Dec 2003: 105.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 193.00 cents/pound, price up by over 83% Barley Dec 2003: 100.77 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 208.70 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 107% Rice Dec 2003: 197.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 500.57 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 154% Cocoa Beans Dec 2003: 1,646.58 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 3,113.52 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 89% Tea Dec 2003: 205.22 cents/KG, Apr 2011: 325.33 cents/KG, price up by over 58% Rubber Dec 2003: 57.31cents/pound, Apr 2011: 265.49cents/pound, price up by over 363% Corn Dec 2003: 111.98 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 318.45 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 184% Bananas Dec 2003: 371.43 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 1,013.47 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 172% Propane Dec 2003: 0.63 USD/Gallon, Apr 2011: 1.45 USD/Gallon, price up by over 130% Wheat Dec 2003: 165.57 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 336.30 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 103% Oranges Dec 2003: 583.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 881.00 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 51% Salmon Dec 2003: 3.12 USD/Kg, Apr 2011: 7.86 USD/Kg, price up by over 151% Chicken Dec 2003: 68.98 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 86.42 cents/pound, price up by over 25% Pork Dec 2003: 48.68 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 92.06 cents/pound, price up by over 89% Silver Dec 2003: 565.33 cents/Troy ounce, Apr 2011: 4,279.79 cents/Troy ounce, price up by over 657% Alluminum Dec 2003: 1,557.78 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 2,667.44 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 71% Uranium Dec 2003: 13.35 USD/pound, Apr 2011: 57.84 USD/pound, price up by over 333% Iron Ore Dec 2003: 13.82 cents/dry Metric Ton, Apr 2011L: 179.26 cents/dry Metric Ton, price up by over 1197% (yeah, almost 1200%) Gasoline Dec 2003: 0.89 USD/Gallon, Apr 2011: 3.18 USD/Gallon, price up by over 257%
Gold of-course went from 350USD/ounce to over 1500USD/ounce in that time frame.
- hold on, hold on, but if the script will stay true to the plot line of the game, will you then go watch it?
Really?
---
I actually have an idea. How about this: everybody in the theater is given a joystick, everybody is given one ship to run, there are a few earth defenders and many invaders, and everybody is controlled by one person from the movie audience and a set of instructions, that limit what anybody can do on the screen.
So just don't bother with the movie, put the game on the screen but an interactive game, with everybody in the audience participating.
Just as anti-corporatists bemoan the immortality and geographical reach of corporations, to add to that it is worth considering limiting the number of owners of a corporation and perhaps also setting a minimum period of ownership.
- so more government regulation then is your 'solution'? Like there isn't enough already?
Do you know WHY the corporations are so concerned with quarterly profits rather than with a long term business vision today?
Inflation.
Government creates inflation, which today is on the order of 10% per YEAR, which is possible because the government is printing money, the way that is absolutely not allowed to it Constitutionally (in USA at least), because money is worth precisely 0.
US dollar is worth 0.
0 ounces of gold, to be precise, so whatever it 'buys' today is not the same thing it bought 10 years ago and it's not the same thing that it will supposedly buy in 10 years (and I don't believe it will buy anything in 10 years, but that's a separate issue.)
Government creating inflation is what creates the drive to have higher profits every year and every quarter, as the profit must outrun inflation by a nice margin for the investment to be meaningful in any sense of the word.
It's not more of government regulation that is needed, it's more regulation OF the government that is necessary.
it's like an old joke, about a computer programmer, who is being pulled away from his computer by a bunch of mental hospital nurses, while he is looking at the screen, where there is an infinite loop running, and he is yelling: -It's only going to take a little longer!
War on terrorism, on drugs, on poverty, on anything that government does, it's not only futile, it actively causes more of what they are fighting against.
How about going over your own code once in a while, looking at it a month or 2 or 3 after it was written, certainly in that time period the understanding of the business problem has expanded or changed or was clarified somehow and it makes sense to go over business logic intensive parts to clean up, refactor, remove useless and restructure the useful.
I spend plenty of time in Germany, do you really want to rely on Russian gas and coal for your energy needs rather than developing further better nuclear? If an alternative can be found, it's likely to be found in some other way to process uranium and maybe in thermonuclear.
Slashdot Mirror
Of-course they are working for it. They are working for it, their work allows them to be paid that.
Just because you are not making that, but making much less, while doing something very specific, and you think that whatever it is you do constitutes work, but what they do does not, has no bearing on the fact that they are doing something that allows them to be paid that.
But all of this is beside the point, which is - if you are going to be charged 94% taxes on some specific amount if you declare that amount as your income, you will modify your behavior and make sure nobody sees anything like that as your income.
WRONG!!! Inflation is BY DEFINITION rise of prices throughout the economy.
- right. That's why it should not be called economics, but should be called 'tarro card reading' or whatever, and it's political BS, because before US went off the gold standard the definition was very simple and clear - expansion of money supply
Prices do not EXPAND or CONTRACT, prices RISE or FALL. This double speak that they have been involved with, ever since the establishment of the Fed has changed the perception of the people when it concerns economics and money. People don't know what a dollar is, Bernanke doesn't know. It's because dollar is nothing. It's 0 of anything, but it used to be exact equivalent of some amount of gold.
1988 edition of Websterâ(TM)s Dictionary defines inflation as follows: âoeAn increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level.â - it's an increase in volume of money.
It causes prices to go up, but it's first of all an increase in volume of money. Just because they can redefine a word, doesn't mean the can redefine the idea.
Wrong. That's not possible, or I'd be rich arbitraging exchange rates between renminbi and (say) euro. China's pegging their currency to dollar would just cause exchange rates between renminbi and unpegged currencies to float.
- Chinese central bank is printing currency to buy the USD out of banks, that hold USD for the companies, who send their products to USA, Europe, etc. Thus they are subsidizing the US consumer by buying US currency. Then they buy US debt with that.
As there is more Chinese money due to this in China, there is more demand for the same amount of commodity, thus prices go up in Chinese money, so china sees huge price spikes, to the order of 15-25% a year. Chinese are forced to buy at these levels, as they are the ones using this stuff for production. This pushes the prices up for everybody else who buys these same commodities, because they trade in USD for these commodities.
Whether the local exchange rate can be used for arbitrage - sure it can, but everybody is busy printing their currency now, it's a race to the bottom in terms of currency value. Good thing Switzerland does not. So Franc is at all time high, while unemployment is 3%. Did they teach you that in your macro-'economics' class? Because by the Keynesian shamanism this is a paradox.
So? There's been no large fluctuations of USD to EUR since last year which kinda proves my point. QE2 had essentially no effect on the economy.
- CAD used to be 60 cents US back in 96 I believe. So that's a 'fluctuation'? Franc used to be 25 cents. That's a 'fluctuation'?
Euro and Yen are flawed currencies for the reasons similar to US. But Japanese have a large productive sector and most of their public debt is to the Japanese people. Big difference. Europe is busy bailing out German and French bankers (that's what it means, when they talk about 'bailing out' Greece. It's bad for the Greeks in the long term, but at least those bankers, with close gov't ties will be bailed out.)
Again, I don't consider USD or Euro to be money. These fiat currencies do not store value.
Unless you are resource-constrained. Which you are. There's only so much oil to be pumped and we're at the peak right now (or past it). There's only so much arable land, and it's peaked few years ago. With biofuels adding additional pressure. That's what causes the price spikes.
- In case of oil the supply is limited, I agree.
But not with everything else, and oil didn't go up much faster than any other commodity that is in the bull market for the last 10 years.
but again, and again and again, in REAL money oil is CHEAPEST EVER. 10 silver cents US per gallon. Neve
Back to front:
And no, inflation is NOT possible without almost immediately rising wages. That's Macro 101.
- nonsense. There is inflation going on right now and wages are staying where they are or dropping. Inflation is expansion of monetary supply, not rising prices, as they teach you in your Keynesian schools of 'economics', (which it's not.)
Again, USA can only 'export' inflation if country's local currency is pegged to dollar. So USA cannot export inflation to Japan or Europe, for example.
- nonsense.
As USA export inflation to China, the subsequent rise in commodities prices push inflation to the rest of the world. China uses commodities to produce for most of the world, and the higher prices for the commodities then affect everybody, including Europe, Japan and the rest. Besides, Europe is doing its own rounds of inflation just fine, and Japan bought into using inflation to fight the 'evils' of deflation in the nineties and though they printed only enough for prices to fall a little or to stay where they were before, it still is inflation. They didn't print enough to cause massive price hikes, but they were supposed to have massive price drops, and they 'saved' their population from the 'evil' of having low prices, thank you very much, all to subsidize the Western consumer by stealing the purchasing power of the Japanese producer.
There's been no significant changes in the USD exchange rates recently. So this is also false.
- really, so CAD and AUD being above USD, the Swiss Franc being at near 1.20 (thank you, thank you), the Japanese yen staying where it is right now even with their insane policy of inflation and after their catastrophes of the late, the NZD at all times high, even Euro, with all the problems of Europe being at what, 1.41 to 1? I don't know what you consider significant, but to me, truly, the only significant thing is this. That's the only real money AFAIC. Not an investment. Not a commodity. Money.
Actually, it's close to 20%. And it's really real - China and India are growing that fast (China is almost back to double-digits growth).
- I calculate my numbers, I don't count on others to do it for me.
But let me explain something to you, that they don't teach you in your 'economics' classes apparently.
A growing economy with a growing demand GROWS SUPPLY. That means the prices go down, not up, in growing economies, because there is money to be made by increasing supply and selling more, and that happens because the market sends signals that more of whatever is required, so prices on that 'whatever' go up and then there is more supply. It's really that simple.
The demand is artificial, it comes from inflation, that's why the prices for commodities are in a 10 year bull market, not because there is more demand from China. If China produces more demand it also produces more supply. If China cannot produce more supply, others produce more supply.
The prices for oil are at an all time LOW today. All time low if counted in real money. 10 silver cents US per gallon. That's lower than in recorded history of USA ever, the lowest in history was 25cents, but of-course they also had people checking your oil at the gas pump, so maybe the comparison is just a little off by that amount.
That's what we call "a prediction" here in economic science. Can you make a corresponding prediction? What would happen if QE3 is not enacted (I know that you believe that it would)?
- economic science in universities of the world is a misnomer. I can make predictions, I made predictions and based my behavior on them, that's why I left that continent 2 years ago. That's why I sold properties and got gold. I make predictions.
QE3 will happen, so that's my prediction.
If Q
Oh, sure I will bet. I will absolutely bet. I will bet that there will be QE3, even if not under that name before September 5th.
As to Dow dropping - this is purely an inflation driven rise, there is nothing else at all that pushes those numbers up, they are supposed to fall in a deflationary bust, but since the fiat is being pumped into the system, it's going up.
As to commodities - yes, there is demand. But not to the tune of 10% per year prices going up, which they are. The demand is created with the new fiat that the Fed pushes into the system, and with the response to that push by other nations, who devalue their currencies as soon as their manufacturers put the USD into banks, which they get from US because of those other governments subsidizing the US consumer.
There's no significant inflation in the USA. The average wage has actually gone _down_ this month and was stagnant before that.
- Ha! USA exports inflation to the rest of the world, because it's not producing shit, but its buying the products from producer nations, so the fiat ends up in banks in Asia. In US the 0% interest at the Fed's discount window allows the financials to take up that debt and make the spread on T-bill purchases, which is another way for the Fed to monetize Treasury debt.
That and so called currency swaps with other countries, which again, are a way to monetize US debt.
As to wages going down - that is your response to me claiming there is huge inflation?! Yes, wages are going down as they must, because that is the only weapon left in US productive arsenal. Unless government kills off a lot of regulations and taxes and subsidies to monopolies and stops spending and inflating, there will be nothing else that US manufacturers will be able to compete on, only this - pushing wages down. They have nothing else they can do to compete at all. They can either push wages down or they can move to other countries.
This absolutely does not mean there is no inflation, it just means there is inflation AND the wages are going down. That's what it means - a double whammy.
So, how much extra money do you have that you want to bet with?
Well, Treasury and Fed. They've really stopped pumping liquidity. And this had no effect whatsoever on economy. None. Zip. Nada. The rest of your argument fails, because it contradicts reality.
- really? Bernanke said on multiple occasions that his policy helped to bring Dow up. Simultaneously he said he doesn't understand why commodities are going up.
Yes, they said QE is over. That's what they are saying. How much time before the Fed is buying T-bills again? 2 weeks? 4 weeks?
It doesn't matter what they call it, I am looking at the new T-bills issued, once the Aug 2 goes by and the so called debt 'ceiling' is once again raised, the Fed will be back buying T-bills, and Treasury will be back, printing new coupons by the ton. And the Fed will be buying them by the ton.
Oh, sorry. I've noticed that it's 'roman_mir' who has no problem living in an alternative reality. He has a privilege to rant about evil government, while sitting in world's best naturally protected country with pretty socialistic government - which happens to be a libertarian paradise in his mind.
- I lived in North America for 16 years, I moved. Just like anybody with any sense would move their business out of that country, I have all the reasons in the world to talk about this, I am an example of 'jobs leaving' or capital leaving for reasons of government destroying economy. Why would I stay and watch once again a collapse around me? No thanks.
BTW., I spend more than half of my time in Russia and Asia, but I do reside in Europe, you are right. So what? Aren't you in the story where the IMF head says something to the US government? She is not talking out of Boston, New York, right? Shouldn't you be maybe a little less hypocritical?
They can't say it's illegal. They can say it violates their contract between the licensee and licenser, but that's between them, it's a civil matter.
For these cables to be illegal, there has to be a law making them illegal, sort of like possession of, I don't know, 100 tons of heroin (and I disagree with that law as well.)
In any case, all patents should be declared void and null and never be given to anybody ever again.
RAM, hard drives.
- how is that a commodity?
Of-course electronics and lasic eye surgery and TVs and computers and cellphones fall in price. They fall in price, because that's what efficiencies and economies of scale do for production. That's what it was like, living in 19 century (not as many gadgets as today) - new shit was invented all the time and things were falling in price while dollar was rising in value.
Imagine how much more they would have fell in price if government wasn't printing all that money?
Government would have you believe that deflation is bad, while in reality, the only people who are afraid of deflation is the government, and the rest of population would be very much fine with prices falling, not rising, which would make everything more affordable, not less affordable and standards of living would go up, not down with falling prices and strengthening currency. Of-course they destroyed currency in 1971, so it can't strengthen, it's = 0, but that's why government has outlived it's purpose long ago.
The extension of credit might be more responsible, but I would like something more than your (or anyone else's) claim about it.
- inflation is increase of money supply by definition. Of-course they changed the definition past 1971, but whatever.
The Supreme Court, per the Constitution, is the ultimate arbiter of what the Constitution means.
- that's as good as having no Constitution at all.
Constitution is the las applied to government, that's why they don't uphold it but they 'interpret' it.
When it's criminal law for individuals, they don't interpret it - if you kill, you kill. They just need to prove it.
But if you are a government, all of a sudden there are all sorts of people who want to give a different meaning to any law that is supposed to apply to the government.
SCOTUS is a joke, it has outlived its purpose once it started 'interpreting' the law.
1. Who says QE ended? Just because the name 'QE' ended doesn't mean they the Fed will stop buying Treasury debt. Do you seriously believe they will risk to have higher interest rates at this time, when all of their charlatans, they call 'economists', are telling them they must stimulate and when the unemployment is getting higher (which was obvious it was going to do, stimulating economy via gov't spending only causes more imbalance in the system)?
2. QE was absolutely there to keep interest rates down to buy out Treasury debt. The Fed's real policy is obvious - monetize government's debt. They are constantly worrying about deflation in US government and in the Fed and Treasury, while deflation is the FIX for the problem of mis-allocation of resources, it's not a problem in itself, it is what should happen - contraction and a bust, so that debt can be restructured, companies can go bankrupt, spending can be stopped, credit can be reallocated from unproductive parts of economy to new productive parts of economy, it's basic stuff, which they hope you don't understand. It's what 1921 depressions has clearly shown: let the depression take course and do one thing - cut government spending by a huge amount. Recession should be have been allowed in 2001, but Clinton and Bush didn't allow it, pushed interest rates down to 1 and then 0% and started pumping money in.
Of-course Bush cut taxes, but he increased spending by a huge factor, and regulations weren't removed to allow people to compete with established monopolies, and money was printed and spent and borrowed, thus more capital was leaving. What is it supposed to do, stay and be destroyed? That's why jobs left - capital left.
3. Commodity prices are not supposed to just fall if government stops buying treasuries for a few days. There is all that money out there, created by QE2 and other bail outs and stimulus plans, any new dollar is inflation.
Somehow there is no problem for the courts 'interpreting' the law when it concerns private citizens.
So if you murder somebody, I don't see them trying to do an interpretive dance around that fact and come up with a different explanation on what that law really says.
But when it concerns the law, which is supposed to apply to the government, now all of a sudden we need an 'interpretation'?
That's a bunch of nonsense.
SCOTUS is not supposed to be interpreting the law, he is supposed to be upholding it.
There is nothing to interpret there. When somebody says: validity will not be questioned. They mean just that. That it is valid, and it cannot be declared invalid by the government. That's all there is to it. It doesn't mean it must be paid at all. But it's valid.
Same with the rest of the Constitution - it does not need interpretation, it needs honest fucking people being judges, so they would uphold the fucking law.
I used to agree with this line of thinking. The problem is the rich aren't investing in US companies. The current tax breaks are creating jobs they just happen to be in China.
- obviously, and they are correct in doing so. Anybody creating jobs in USA or other Western nations is punished today.
The punishment comes in many forms: from high taxes, to insane business regulations, to insane labor laws, to insane subsidies to the competition, but it's not just high wages of Americans or Europeans.
It's really about government causing capital flight, that sends jobs away, why else do you think it's happening?
So while cutting taxes is always good (it's never good to give money to government), but it's not enough. As long as government regulates business, creates labor laws, makes it difficult and expensive to hire people with all the laws and regulations, it's not going to happen.
If government gives employees special privileges, then it means it puts special obligations on the employers. For example minorities, women, whoever are not basically young white men have various laws providing them with ability to file lawsuits against the company, whether it be for 'wrongful termination' (even if they are terminated for performance), or be it some 'intolerable work environment' (when company gets sued for actions of some asshole working for the company), it provides an excellent reason not to hire.
If hiring over 50 people puts the company into special category, which requires it to give special treatment for whatever reason, then company won't go over that threshold, and some other company will shrink to get below it.
Minimum wage laws during millions of people sitting on unemployment is criminal.
Don't let the information that I am about to provide to prevent your spiel there, but consider that people who get paid dividends are owners of the company, and thus they get paid dividends after the company pays all its obligations and taxes, so in reality the taxes of the company ARE the taxes of those, who pay dividends (for example Buffet owns majority of his business), so whatever the business tax is (35% less whatever deductions) AND 15% dividend tax on top of that, that's the tax, not just the 15%.
The US Constitution says the government isn't allowed to default on the debt.
- what a bunch of BS.
I responded to a similar bunch of nonsense right here
But let me provide an important perspective: the people who are deciding on this "debt ceiling" ruse are in Washington DC right now, so clearly the so called 'ceiling' will be raised, don't worry about it, they are just fucking with you.
So when to worry? When the people in China and all over who hold the debt decide that your ceiling shouldn't be raised.
Of-course for the past 6 months the Fed was buying 100% of all new debt (QE2 was equal in size to the amount of new debt created in that time period for a reason, it's not a wild coincidence,) and they are buying the outstanding debt on the market as well, which isn't rolled over. They want to keep interest rates low at expense of inflation.
US government default is prohibited by the 14th amendment of the constitution
- why are you saying things without understanding them at all?
That's not what the amendment says. Read it:
14th Amendment
Amendment XIV
Section 1.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
ok, done with that part, next:
Section 2.
Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the executive and judicial officers of a state, or the members of the legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such state, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such state.
- by the way, being 21 at those times is like being at least 30 nowadays in terms of work experience.
Next.
Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
I could have skipped this, but whatever.
Finally:
Section 4.
The
validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any state shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
OK, how the fuck do you get from : VALIDITY SHALL NOT BE QUESTIONED
to
Defaults are prohibited?
WTF?
Listen, why don't you fucking read the fucking thing you fucking referencing first, OK?
"Validity shall not be questioned." - means it's fucking valid. Nothing else. It doesn't mean anybody must pay! It only means this: yeah, it's a valid claim.
And WHAT is the debt in question by the way?
authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, - well fuck me! Clearly this is all about the debts of US, so that they always must be repaid! NOT.
I am amazed, I am fucking amazed at people here. Do you know that USA defaulted on its debts already? It defaulted on its debts and its promises already? Do you know when? 1971, when it defaulted on the promise to pay gold for the dollar, that's when it defaulted, and since then the v
Warren Buffet is a liar.
First: he is probably the only person in USA who benefits from death taxes, since those are often paid by fire-selling a company, because estate is normally a bunch of assets, like companies, and to pay those taxes, the money needs to be realized.
So who is on the other side of the trade here?
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
The second point is this: when Buffet pays himself dividends, that's because he chooses not to pay himself a salary. Whatever his company makes then, is his income, because dividends are paid after his company balances the books and pays the taxes, and whatever is left over as profits, can be paid out in dividends, and he is the majority shareholder.
His income is thus taxed at 35% corporate and then 15% personal levels.
Don't listen to what this snake sells, he thanked the government for basically saving his ass
Hopefully you do realize that nobody was paying those insane percentages, you understand it, right? Nobody in their sane mind would work for 6 cents on a dollar (at 94% level) or even at 23cents on the dollar (77% level).
What do people do when faced with such calamities? They improvise, they change their behavior, they skip writing themselves a check, they use company's money and write everything off, and it was easy to write things off in those time.
Again, nobody pays stupid taxes at those stupid levels, and if somebody did, they needed a head check.
"Some prices have fallen over that time." - like what?
where could you get gasoline for 89 cents a gallon in 2003?
- it's not my number, I am using the same source, and in 2003 I was buying gasoline in Canada, not USA, it was probably around 60 cents/liter there then.
as they are more volatile than consumer prices.
- Oh? Look carefully, that's the trend over 10 years almost, they are all going up year to year, and they are part of the basis for consumer prices of finished products, and as they go higher and higher in price due to inflation (money printing), they are becoming a larger and larger percentage of the total cost, at some point it won't be labor (due to efficiencies created by better tools), but it will be actual commodity prices that will cause product prices to rise as well.
And are changes in commodity prices due to government policy?
- ha, there is only one policy that creates inflation - money printing.
I count my own numbers, OK, here they are:
sugar Dec 2003: 20.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 36.97 cents/pound, price up by over 81%
Beef Dec 2003: 105.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 193.00 cents/pound, price up by over 83%
Barley Dec 2003: 100.77 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 208.70 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 107%
Rice Dec 2003: 197.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 500.57 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 154%
Cocoa Beans Dec 2003: 1,646.58 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 3,113.52 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 89%
Tea Dec 2003: 205.22 cents/KG, Apr 2011: 325.33 cents/KG, price up by over 58%
Rubber Dec 2003: 57.31cents/pound, Apr 2011: 265.49cents/pound, price up by over 363%
Corn Dec 2003: 111.98 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 318.45 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 184%
Bananas Dec 2003: 371.43 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 1,013.47 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 172%
Propane Dec 2003: 0.63 USD/Gallon, Apr 2011: 1.45 USD/Gallon, price up by over 130%
Wheat Dec 2003: 165.57 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 336.30 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 103%
Oranges Dec 2003: 583.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 881.00 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 51%
Salmon Dec 2003: 3.12 USD/Kg, Apr 2011: 7.86 USD/Kg, price up by over 151%
Chicken Dec 2003: 68.98 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 86.42 cents/pound, price up by over 25%
Pork Dec 2003: 48.68 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 92.06 cents/pound, price up by over 89%
Silver Dec 2003: 565.33 cents/Troy ounce, Apr 2011: 4,279.79 cents/Troy ounce, price up by over 657%
Alluminum Dec 2003: 1,557.78 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 2,667.44 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 71%
Uranium Dec 2003: 13.35 USD/pound, Apr 2011: 57.84 USD/pound, price up by over 333%
Iron Ore Dec 2003: 13.82 cents/dry Metric Ton, Apr 2011L: 179.26 cents/dry Metric Ton, price up by over 1197% (yeah, almost 1200%)
Gasoline Dec 2003: 0.89 USD/Gallon, Apr 2011: 3.18 USD/Gallon, price up by over 257%
Gold of-course went from 350USD/ounce to over 1500USD/ounce in that time frame.
I count 10% inflation / year.
Seriously, you are so right.
How about Tetris Meets Pacman THE MOVIE!
Ohhh, this could be good.
How about this: Command Keen? Actually that sound fine.
How about this: Monster Bash?
Snakes?
What a waste of time. I'll skip this one...
- hold on, hold on, but if the script will stay true to the plot line of the game, will you then go watch it?
Really?
---
I actually have an idea. How about this: everybody in the theater is given a joystick, everybody is given one ship to run, there are a few earth defenders and many invaders, and everybody is controlled by one person from the movie audience and a set of instructions, that limit what anybody can do on the screen.
So just don't bother with the movie, put the game on the screen but an interactive game, with everybody in the audience participating.
The goal should be cake....
Just as anti-corporatists bemoan the immortality and geographical reach of corporations, to add to that it is worth considering limiting the number of owners of a corporation and perhaps also setting a minimum period of ownership.
- so more government regulation then is your 'solution'? Like there isn't enough already?
Do you know WHY the corporations are so concerned with quarterly profits rather than with a long term business vision today?
Inflation.
Government creates inflation, which today is on the order of 10% per YEAR, which is possible because the government is printing money, the way that is absolutely not allowed to it Constitutionally (in USA at least), because money is worth precisely 0.
US dollar is worth 0.
0 ounces of gold, to be precise, so whatever it 'buys' today is not the same thing it bought 10 years ago and it's not the same thing that it will supposedly buy in 10 years (and I don't believe it will buy anything in 10 years, but that's a separate issue.)
Government creating inflation is what creates the drive to have higher profits every year and every quarter, as the profit must outrun inflation by a nice margin for the investment to be meaningful in any sense of the word.
It's not more of government regulation that is needed, it's more regulation OF the government that is necessary.
it's like an old joke, about a computer programmer, who is being pulled away from his computer by a bunch of mental hospital nurses, while he is looking at the screen, where there is an infinite loop running, and he is yelling: -It's only going to take a little longer!
War on terrorism, on drugs, on poverty, on anything that government does, it's not only futile, it actively causes more of what they are fighting against.
it's gonna be all back and forth, back and forth, the ending is totally predictable, the only question: who'll play the hot chick?
How about going over your own code once in a while, looking at it a month or 2 or 3 after it was written, certainly in that time period the understanding of the business problem has expanded or changed or was clarified somehow and it makes sense to go over business logic intensive parts to clean up, refactor, remove useless and restructure the useful.
I spend plenty of time in Germany, do you really want to rely on Russian gas and coal for your energy needs rather than developing further better nuclear? If an alternative can be found, it's likely to be found in some other way to process uranium and maybe in thermonuclear.