The thing is, if you *really* believe we're sticking our collective heads in the sand, borrow a couple of billion dollars and buy oil on a long dated future. If the peak oil doom-mongers are right, in a few years we'll be paying a thousand dollars a barrel. The fact that the price of future-dated oil doesn't reflect this suggests that the smart money doesn't believe peak oil is as imminent as the heralds of doom suggest.
Read here for one example of an argument that a decrease in the supply of oil will coincide with a decrease in the price of oil.
I too first figured that oil scarcity would lead to an increase in oil prices due to a simple supply/demand relationship, but since learning more about peak oil theory and the complexity of relationships between oil supply, oil demand, money supply, debt, etc., I'm not at all sure anymore. It could be that the market too is pricing into oil prices the possibility of a deflationary spiral.
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The thing is, if you *really* believe we're sticking our collective heads in the sand, borrow a couple of billion dollars and buy oil on a long dated future. If the peak oil doom-mongers are right, in a few years we'll be paying a thousand dollars a barrel. The fact that the price of future-dated oil doesn't reflect this suggests that the smart money doesn't believe peak oil is as imminent as the heralds of doom suggest.
Read here for one example of an argument that a decrease in the supply of oil will coincide with a decrease in the price of oil.
I too first figured that oil scarcity would lead to an increase in oil prices due to a simple supply/demand relationship, but since learning more about peak oil theory and the complexity of relationships between oil supply, oil demand, money supply, debt, etc., I'm not at all sure anymore. It could be that the market too is pricing into oil prices the possibility of a deflationary spiral.