No, I mean things like oil embargoes, laundering the proceeds of corruption in the Chinese cadres, moving off-shore funds between tax-free jurisdictions, &c.
Or you could buy 2 bitcoin and short 1. if you're wrong, you win when the price rises 50%. If you're right, you can buy 1.5 when the price drops 50%. rinse, repeat. Same thing works in any volatile market. Just don't get margin called and you are golden.
And yes, I am wealthy due to estimating the future fair value of bitcoin. I expect to become much, much wealthier than I am now. Crashes will not change that. Only a fundamental technological change which invalidates the value-add provided by the cryptographically secured counterparty-risk-free global ledger will change that.
There will undoubtedly be many more crashes before bitcoin price achieves parity with its fundamental economic value. I hope to buy many bitcoins at a severe discount during those crashes.
The fundamental value of bitcoin is determined by Fisher's quantity theory of money, PQ=MV. This is not an economic hypothesis. It is no less certain than the analogous law of physics, the ideal gas law. MV = 90,000,000. A very pessimistic estimate of PQ would include 50% of international remittances and 50% of the black market globally, which yields a figure in excess of 1 trillion USD. Do the math. Discount this future attractor value by 2 factors: 1) a risk-free interest rate, and 2) the distribution of estimate error.
I will sell bitcoin when the price meets or exceeds its discounted fundamental future fair value. I do not expect this to occur for at least 5 years.
Re:Another bitcoin short-sell opportunity coming
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Please understand, the value of a currency is unrelated to utility for unrelated uses. BTC is worth billions of dollars today because it is useful as a currency. This should not be surprising, because it was specifically designed to be a superior currency. It derives its value from truth. PQ=MV is a tautology, and hence true. When BTC is used to transact 4% of the wGDP, the value of 1 BTC will be equal to 27000 US dollars in 2013. When BTC is no longer used to transact, it will have 0 value.
Re:Another bitcoin short-sell opportunity coming
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They are not geek interest. BTC is the quintessence of geek interest.
Re:Another bitcoin short-sell opportunity coming
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The value of a US dollar since 1913 has gone from 1/20 oz of gold to 1/1200 oz of gold. The value of a BTC since 2009 has gone from 1/7600 oz of gold to 1/4 oz of gold. Which would you rather give to your children? To your medical care provider?
I see, so your opinions should control everyone else's actions then. Do tell me more. What other opinions of yours should be imposed by force upon me and my posterity? And what should be done with us, if we disagree?
because it's hard to separate heavy nearby isotopes, and its dangerous to handle plutonium, and nobody was really quite sure about the neutron cross-section math, although it seemed straightforward enough, and also it would be nice to be sure not to ignite the whole atmosphere. you'll notice they over-did it and delivered two completely different designs. it definitely cost at least 100x what was needed to do the job.
so true. people will often sacrifice their lives to serve their ideals because the corruption and degradation of the reality they face makes their lives unworthy preserving.
Slashdot Mirror
Selling bitcoin now isn't tempting fate so much as cutting off your nose to spite your face.
No, I mean things like oil embargoes, laundering the proceeds of corruption in the Chinese cadres, moving off-shore funds between tax-free jurisdictions, &c.
Or you could buy 2 bitcoin and short 1. if you're wrong, you win when the price rises 50%. If you're right, you can buy 1.5 when the price drops 50%. rinse, repeat. Same thing works in any volatile market. Just don't get margin called and you are golden.
And yes, I am wealthy due to estimating the future fair value of bitcoin. I expect to become much, much wealthier than I am now. Crashes will not change that. Only a fundamental technological change which invalidates the value-add provided by the cryptographically secured counterparty-risk-free global ledger will change that.
There will undoubtedly be many more crashes before bitcoin price achieves parity with its fundamental economic value. I hope to buy many bitcoins at a severe discount during those crashes.
The fundamental value of bitcoin is determined by Fisher's quantity theory of money, PQ=MV. This is not an economic hypothesis. It is no less certain than the analogous law of physics, the ideal gas law. MV = 90,000,000. A very pessimistic estimate of PQ would include 50% of international remittances and 50% of the black market globally, which yields a figure in excess of 1 trillion USD. Do the math. Discount this future attractor value by 2 factors: 1) a risk-free interest rate, and 2) the distribution of estimate error.
I will sell bitcoin when the price meets or exceeds its discounted fundamental future fair value. I do not expect this to occur for at least 5 years.
you appear to be confusing ubricht with DPR. that is one error.
rumors and allegations. propaganda is always thus
Please understand, the value of a currency is unrelated to utility for unrelated uses. BTC is worth billions of dollars today because it is useful as a currency. This should not be surprising, because it was specifically designed to be a superior currency. It derives its value from truth. PQ=MV is a tautology, and hence true. When BTC is used to transact 4% of the wGDP, the value of 1 BTC will be equal to 27000 US dollars in 2013. When BTC is no longer used to transact, it will have 0 value.
They are not geek interest. BTC is the quintessence of geek interest.
The value of a US dollar since 1913 has gone from 1/20 oz of gold to 1/1200 oz of gold.
The value of a BTC since 2009 has gone from 1/7600 oz of gold to 1/4 oz of gold.
Which would you rather give to your children? To your medical care provider?
I see, so your opinions should control everyone else's actions then. Do tell me more. What other opinions of yours should be imposed by force upon me and my posterity? And what should be done with us, if we disagree?
but protons don't come with a buddy neutron in hydrogen
infinitely more expensive? i'm in the wrong business!
i see a lot more guns at european airports than at u.s airports.
you can be pretty sure it won't be all over the national news. citizen kills cop gets universal headlines. cop kills citizen? that's not even news.
because it's hard to separate heavy nearby isotopes, and its dangerous to handle plutonium, and nobody was really quite sure about the neutron cross-section math, although it seemed straightforward enough, and also it would be nice to be sure not to ignite the whole atmosphere. you'll notice they over-did it and delivered two completely different designs. it definitely cost at least 100x what was needed to do the job.
ah, that explains why they turned traitor.
and insightful
no, there aren't any. none.
to defend themselves against democracy
so true. people will often sacrifice their lives to serve their ideals because the corruption and degradation of the reality they face makes their lives unworthy preserving.
example prove existence. they do not prove wisdom or moral imperative.
oh no, much worse. evil is not merely the absence of good.
or a nice, clean remington 760
Okay, we can start by redistributing the stock shares of all public companies evenly among the public.