Good point. I looked up cost of production vs. total revenues ( http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat8p3.html ) and to have comparable returns, the cost of production is about 1/2 of the revenues. I think that implies that at the current price point, the total end consumer retail price (including transmission) would be 19.6 cents per kilowatt hour. This is about two times the cost of yearly average conventional generation in the areas most likely to adopt solar. If the US goes the route of Europe and charges for CO2 emissions, then this will drop in the price multiplier.
Cost per KWhr at $0.98 cost per Watt ~ $0.098 installed. See below. Calculate KWhrs: Stated Efficiency = 10.8% (panels guaranteed to produce 80% of this value after 25 years of use, linear degradation with respect to time, see latest quarterly statement). Tested impinging irradiance energy = 1000Watts/Meter good yearly average value at solar noon across the latitudes spanning continental US. (USGS has irradiance values for different locals, NREL uses this value). Panel size = 2' X 4' minus edge effects = 23" x 46" = 0.683 Meters square. peak useable energy ~ 73 Watts per panel. Assume solar energy is positive sinusoidal (clipped at 0). Average day length = 12 hours. 12 hours * RMS factor * Watts per panel * ave degradation factor =.525 KWhr per day (12hours * 0.667RMS * 73Watts * 0.9aveDegradation). Assume 80% of solar energy available (due to cloudy days, diffuse light etc.). By the way, CdTe panels are much better at capturing diffuse light than Si panels. Because of this they don't need tracking devices. Panel guaranteed to produce 3835 KWhrs over 25 years (guaranteed panel lifetime (will produce 80% of initial power rating after 25 years)) given the assumptions. (25years * 365.25days * 0.8EnergyAvai l* 0.525KWh/day) Assume current cost of installation per Watt is ~2.5 times cost per Watt(includes cost of scaffolding, inverters, labor, connection to grid at source, does not include cost of land, cost of transmission (it's usually a separate item in your electric bill)). As a note, the cost per Watt includes the cost to collect, recycle and reuse the panels (CdTe is recovered and reused, glass recovered and reused, copper recovered and reused). So at $0.98 per Watt to make, we have $3.43 to make and install per Watt. Operating margin (See FSLR quarterly report ~50%) and assume the same for installers --> total cost = $5.15 per Watt --> 9.8 cents per KWhr; (($5.15 * 73Watt)/3835KWhr). Maintenance cost is minimal (no moving parts, don't have to wash the panels, etc.). A highly inflated cost would be 10% of cost per Watt --> $5.66 --> 10.8 cents per KWhr. As a note regarding Te availability check out FSLR SEC statements and see where they've been investing some of their money... With respect to CdTe toxicity, check out the studies about amount of Cd released when panels exposed to 1100C fires... If you check out their website and you believe the numbers, if they get to $1 Watt (sold so includes margin) to make and $2 Watt installed (sold so includes margin) then the cost per KWhr drops to 6.3 cents per KWhr by 2012.
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Good point. I looked up cost of production vs. total revenues ( http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat8p3.html ) and to have comparable returns, the cost of production is about 1/2 of the revenues. I think that implies that at the current price point, the total end consumer retail price (including transmission) would be 19.6 cents per kilowatt hour. This is about two times the cost of yearly average conventional generation in the areas most likely to adopt solar. If the US goes the route of Europe and charges for CO2 emissions, then this will drop in the price multiplier.
Cost per KWhr at $0.98 cost per Watt ~ $0.098 installed. See below. Calculate KWhrs: Stated Efficiency = 10.8% (panels guaranteed to produce 80% of this value after 25 years of use, linear degradation with respect to time, see latest quarterly statement). Tested impinging irradiance energy = 1000Watts/Meter good yearly average value at solar noon across the latitudes spanning continental US. (USGS has irradiance values for different locals, NREL uses this value). Panel size = 2' X 4' minus edge effects = 23" x 46" = 0.683 Meters square. peak useable energy ~ 73 Watts per panel. Assume solar energy is positive sinusoidal (clipped at 0). Average day length = 12 hours. 12 hours * RMS factor * Watts per panel * ave degradation factor = .525 KWhr per day (12hours * 0.667RMS * 73Watts * 0.9aveDegradation). Assume 80% of solar energy available (due to cloudy days, diffuse light etc.). By the way, CdTe panels are much better at capturing diffuse light than Si panels. Because of this they don't need tracking devices. Panel guaranteed to produce 3835 KWhrs over 25 years (guaranteed panel lifetime (will produce 80% of initial power rating after 25 years)) given the assumptions. (25years * 365.25days * 0.8EnergyAvai l* 0.525KWh/day) Assume current cost of installation per Watt is ~2.5 times cost per Watt(includes cost of scaffolding, inverters, labor, connection to grid at source, does not include cost of land, cost of transmission (it's usually a separate item in your electric bill)). As a note, the cost per Watt includes the cost to collect, recycle and reuse the panels (CdTe is recovered and reused, glass recovered and reused, copper recovered and reused). So at $0.98 per Watt to make, we have $3.43 to make and install per Watt. Operating margin (See FSLR quarterly report ~50%) and assume the same for installers --> total cost = $5.15 per Watt --> 9.8 cents per KWhr; (($5.15 * 73Watt)/3835KWhr). Maintenance cost is minimal (no moving parts, don't have to wash the panels, etc.). A highly inflated cost would be 10% of cost per Watt --> $5.66 --> 10.8 cents per KWhr. As a note regarding Te availability check out FSLR SEC statements and see where they've been investing some of their money... With respect to CdTe toxicity, check out the studies about amount of Cd released when panels exposed to 1100C fires... If you check out their website and you believe the numbers, if they get to $1 Watt (sold so includes margin) to make and $2 Watt installed (sold so includes margin) then the cost per KWhr drops to 6.3 cents per KWhr by 2012.