I've liked the 2 Blackberries I've had. And as far as a texting phone, they are amazing. But the web experience on an iPhone is incomparably better.
Really I think Blackberry should drop down to 200mb data plans with unlimited texting and emails. That seems to be their sweet spot. The problem is right now I have to pay the same (essentially) for a Blackberry as an iPhone.
I have heard that with the iPhone that you should avoid major version upgrades. As far as software breakages, most apps update and update for free. If they don't they stop selling and quite often the vendor gets a bad rep. So the problem is quite often worse on Android.
I understand Apple could offer Siri, on the 3G. When it was a private service it was but they do:
a) Charge more for the 4S b) Offer additional services.
The fact is iOS 5 is available for the 3G. But the Siri service is not. You pay extra for phones that support Siri. Apple could include Siri with the price of the 3G but don't.
OK so now we have the basic gist of it. That hardware is the core business with software / media as gravy. Important gravy because Apple wants to diversify, but not the core business. The original poster argued that if opening up the media would substantially boost hardware sales Apple would do it. Your counter argument was that the media was more important than the hardware. I argued that the hardware was much more important and we are now on the same page (roughly) in terms of numbers.
I don't happen to think opening up would do much of anything for their hardware it might even hurt it. I think Apple users like the fully integrated experience. I think the iPod example proves that unless the alternative is compelling integrated (because of ease of use) will win out. So in my opinion Apple opens only if there is some sort of a move to lock Apple out by major players. I think that's the kind of resistance Apple hits at the 50-90% range. Essentially the studios gave other music companies like Walmart and Amazon better deals than Apple to preserve diversity. In effect they had to sacrifice DRM with electronic music though, which is ultimately to Apple's benefit.
I suspect something similar will happen with books, magazines and video if Apple were dominant, which right now it isn't.
Software they are locking in by pushing objective-C / Cocoa paradigm. The developers are tied to Apple.
So I have a hard time seeing why they would open up and disagree with the original poster that it would do anything but sacrifice revenue. That being said, if there were a good reasons to open I think they would have to. Hardware trumps media.
Again I don't know the British market. I know the European cell phone market has larger subsidies than the USA. But in general in the USA for most carriers, it doesn't make sense to buy a phone except with the subsidy. There are exceptions for example carriers that have a "bring your own phone" model to pricing like Straight Talk and service the month by month market.
iPhone is just starting to penetrate the regional carriers. I don't think there is a single one of the month by month or daily plans which can even carry it. But they aren't a huge percentage of the smart phone market in the USA. Mainly they exist at the bottom rung, the dumb phones.
Now Europe in general is ahead of us. It is possible that when large numbers of quality used smart phones exist that there may be a market for carriers that let you use them with their service with low fees for data and heavy data restrictions... the daily / month by month market. But at least now that doesn't have impact on the US market.
I don't know the market in Britain but at this point iPhone is offering $0 options in the states. They have that same spread. I assume they are taking that strategy international.
Wait, isn't it Apple that decided to artificially cut support for older model iPhones when it released Siri?
That's not an incompatibility issue. Incompatibility is when apps stop working after OS upgrades. Apple just doesn't offer Siri as a service for systems below 4S. It isn't included in the price.
The reason is because you can move much faster if you can vertically integrate. The people who first proposed the creation of a Linux GUI, KDE, wanted the advantages of vertical integration.
Developing a complex communication standard that is agreed upon can take a generation. Using a toolkit is instant.
If you don't need advanced desktop features and want stability go for a server Linux. Something like Debian, Scientific / Cent. You will have to fiddle but you only have to fiddle once.
I've heard that. Which BTW doesn't make any sense, they would be better off paying the early termination for the old Android contract and then reupping. The Verizon subsidy is iPhones is huge.
As for AT&T, I know people who switched to AT&T for the iPhone but they have had iPhone and and Android since the last cycle, so their numbers may be biased by people who would rather be with a different carrier who are going to switch carriers so they are if anything, I suspect biased in the other direction.
2012 will be a very interesting year.
As an aside when I bought 3000 cell phones for a company I excluded the iPhone instantly in that I didn't want to buy AT&T's data problems. They didn't even get to bid.
To pick two example graphs from reputable sources of revenue graphs.
As for your estimates of profit. Apple gives 70% of the revenue from the app store to developer and somewhere between 65-75% of revenue from music sales to the labels. So right off the bat their base profit couldn't be much higher than 30%. Then there is management costs for the app store and for music they run a lot of specials and advertising promotions. 20, 25% maybe.
Apple's gross profits on iPhones are under 70%. Now there are expenses like warranty that come out of that. But no they are way over the 30-40% you were worried about.
For iPad's the gross margin is pretty low (around 20%) for units sold through retailers like Best Buy (about 1/2 of them), and just under 50% for units sold direct to consumers (the other 1/2).
whether they relaxed because the terms were really hard to police or because they realized it angered a lot of developers is up for debate
Neither. The apps coming from the libraries right now for iPhone are tuned iPhone or tuned at least for phones similar to the iPhone. They aren't looking at a massive mismatch. Similarly with the iPad.
As an iPhone user those bloat of those frameworks is concerning. I'm getting a little agitated about 100m games.
So far Apple hasn't officially endorsed an interpreted language by making it available in the standard SDK. Maybe they will at some point, although my own guess is that there are still enough decision makers inside Apple who are against it - they just think that the "right" way to write apps is in ObjC either because they think ObjC is great or that alternatives are too resource intensive, etc.
I think they are getting closer to MacRuby. They are using it internally to provide applications scripting. And there is serious talk of allowing it to be a generic application scripting framework though they are going to want to be very security oriented with the applications that permit scripting.
I think AC for continuing conversations is rude and disruptive, especially unsigned. I understand why / allow it since lots of people comment as ACs before getting an account. That being said ACs disrupt the flow the conversation.
Back in the 1980s people talked about how we were 5 years away from the end of paper. All during the 1980s and 1990s computer technology increased the amount of paper. Only in the 2010s are we starting to see a noticeable drop off in paper use per employee in companies, and we still are no where near as low as the levels were when people talked about the death of paper.
I suspect things like "spray on lcd" which on one has any clue how to make might be centuries away and decades at the very least.
That's because the GUIs (Gnome, KDE, XFCE) don't come form the Unix philosophy. They all offer a high degree of vertical integration. If you don't want vertical integration you don't want GUIs, and just fundamentally disagree with the design of the product. The right choice then is the classic feature rich window managers.
You sound like what you want is a real time kernel for the desktop and I agree with you.
Most kernels are designed to maximize throughput, that is get the most amount of work done. RTOS are designed to make sure that the system is responsive. Windows server vs. dekstop is tweaked a bit to make the desktop version more responsive. But I agree that I'd give up total throughput for instantly responsiveness.
The good news is that the Linux kernel can now be compiled to RTOS. Hopefully the desktops switch over to RTOS settings.
The carriers don't want devices that will consume lots of 3G/4G bandwidth. They just don't have enough spectrum. If they get their wish and HD TV gets converted to carrier spectrum then maybe we'll see a push but right now the carriers aren't looking for anything "reasonably priced" on their getting rarer spectrum.
I'm seeing their popularity with middle aged people. Lots of people whose laptops are windows are getting the iOS / Apple integrated experience via. the iPad. I suspect if the tablet falls back into a niche it will be because those customers move over to Macbook Airs or something.
What are you talking about. Apple's profits from various parts of their business are public. While they like the idea of being in media, they make their money on hardware sales.
Slashdot Mirror
I've liked the 2 Blackberries I've had. And as far as a texting phone, they are amazing.
But the web experience on an iPhone is incomparably better.
Really I think Blackberry should drop down to 200mb data plans with unlimited texting and emails. That seems to be their sweet spot. The problem is right now I have to pay the same (essentially) for a Blackberry as an iPhone.
I have heard that with the iPhone that you should avoid major version upgrades. As far as software breakages, most apps update and update for free. If they don't they stop selling and quite often the vendor gets a bad rep. So the problem is quite often worse on Android.
I understand Apple could offer Siri, on the 3G. When it was a private service it was but they do:
a) Charge more for the 4S
b) Offer additional services.
The fact is iOS 5 is available for the 3G. But the Siri service is not. You pay extra for phones that support Siri. Apple could include Siri with the price of the 3G but don't.
OK so now we have the basic gist of it. That hardware is the core business with software / media as gravy. Important gravy because Apple wants to diversify, but not the core business. The original poster argued that if opening up the media would substantially boost hardware sales Apple would do it. Your counter argument was that the media was more important than the hardware. I argued that the hardware was much more important and we are now on the same page (roughly) in terms of numbers.
I don't happen to think opening up would do much of anything for their hardware it might even hurt it. I think Apple users like the fully integrated experience. I think the iPod example proves that unless the alternative is compelling integrated (because of ease of use) will win out. So in my opinion Apple opens only if there is some sort of a move to lock Apple out by major players. I think that's the kind of resistance Apple hits at the 50-90% range. Essentially the studios gave other music companies like Walmart and Amazon better deals than Apple to preserve diversity. In effect they had to sacrifice DRM with electronic music though, which is ultimately to Apple's benefit.
I suspect something similar will happen with books, magazines and video if Apple were dominant, which right now it isn't.
Software they are locking in by pushing objective-C / Cocoa paradigm. The developers are tied to Apple.
So I have a hard time seeing why they would open up and disagree with the original poster that it would do anything but sacrifice revenue. That being said, if there were a good reasons to open I think they would have to. Hardware trumps media.
Again I don't know the British market. I know the European cell phone market has larger subsidies than the USA. But in general in the USA for most carriers, it doesn't make sense to buy a phone except with the subsidy. There are exceptions for example carriers that have a "bring your own phone" model to pricing like Straight Talk and service the month by month market.
iPhone is just starting to penetrate the regional carriers. I don't think there is a single one of the month by month or daily plans which can even carry it. But they aren't a huge percentage of the smart phone market in the USA. Mainly they exist at the bottom rung, the dumb phones.
Now Europe in general is ahead of us. It is possible that when large numbers of quality used smart phones exist that there may be a market for carriers that let you use them with their service with low fees for data and heavy data restrictions... the daily / month by month market. But at least now that doesn't have impact on the US market.
I don't know the market in Britain but at this point iPhone is offering $0 options in the states. They have that same spread. I assume they are taking that strategy international.
That's not an incompatibility issue. Incompatibility is when apps stop working after OS upgrades. Apple just doesn't offer Siri as a service for systems below 4S. It isn't included in the price.
The reason is because you can move much faster if you can vertically integrate. The people who first proposed the creation of a Linux GUI, KDE, wanted the advantages of vertical integration.
Developing a complex communication standard that is agreed upon can take a generation. Using a toolkit is instant.
xmonad won't teach you any Haskell unless you decide to start hacking it.
If you want to learn Haskell, learn Haskell.
If you don't need advanced desktop features and want stability go for a server Linux. Something like Debian, Scientific / Cent. You will have to fiddle but you only have to fiddle once.
I've heard that. Which BTW doesn't make any sense, they would be better off paying the early termination for the old Android contract and then reupping. The Verizon subsidy is iPhones is huge.
As for AT&T, I know people who switched to AT&T for the iPhone but they have had iPhone and and Android since the last cycle, so their numbers may be biased by people who would rather be with a different carrier who are going to switch carriers so they are if anything, I suspect biased in the other direction.
2012 will be a very interesting year.
As an aside when I bought 3000 cell phones for a company I excluded the iPhone instantly in that I didn't want to buy AT&T's data problems. They didn't even get to bid.
Siri is a service included with the 4S not a OS feature.
Single platform with very limited features like size makes emulation and testing easy.
The rest of the world isn't a single market, it is a bunch of different markets with different criteria and different issues.
AJ I'm not sure where you are getting this from.
http://static.arstechnica.net/2011/10/18/apple_4q11_results_006-4e9e18f-intro.png
http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4e25f4d049e2aee37d070000/chart-of-the-day-apple-revenue-by-product-july-2011.jpg
To pick two example graphs from reputable sources of revenue graphs.
As for your estimates of profit. Apple gives 70% of the revenue from the app store to developer and somewhere between 65-75% of revenue from music sales to the labels. So right off the bat their base profit couldn't be much higher than 30%. Then there is management costs for the app store and for music they run a lot of specials and advertising promotions. 20, 25% maybe.
Apple's gross profits on iPhones are under 70%. Now there are expenses like warranty that come out of that. But no they are way over the 30-40% you were worried about.
For iPad's the gross margin is pretty low (around 20%) for units sold through retailers like Best Buy (about 1/2 of them), and just under 50% for units sold direct to consumers (the other 1/2).
Neither. The apps coming from the libraries right now for iPhone are tuned iPhone or tuned at least for phones similar to the iPhone. They aren't looking at a massive mismatch. Similarly with the iPad.
As an iPhone user those bloat of those frameworks is concerning. I'm getting a little agitated about 100m games.
I think they are getting closer to MacRuby. They are using it internally to provide applications scripting. And there is serious talk of allowing it to be a generic application scripting framework though they are going to want to be very security oriented with the applications that permit scripting.
I think AC for continuing conversations is rude and disruptive, especially unsigned. I understand why / allow it since lots of people comment as ACs before getting an account. That being said ACs disrupt the flow the conversation.
Back in the 1980s people talked about how we were 5 years away from the end of paper. All during the 1980s and 1990s computer technology increased the amount of paper. Only in the 2010s are we starting to see a noticeable drop off in paper use per employee in companies, and we still are no where near as low as the levels were when people talked about the death of paper.
I suspect things like "spray on lcd" which on one has any clue how to make might be centuries away and decades at the very least.
That's because the GUIs (Gnome, KDE, XFCE) don't come form the Unix philosophy. They all offer a high degree of vertical integration. If you don't want vertical integration you don't want GUIs, and just fundamentally disagree with the design of the product. The right choice then is the classic feature rich window managers.
You sound like what you want is a real time kernel for the desktop and I agree with you.
Most kernels are designed to maximize throughput, that is get the most amount of work done. RTOS are designed to make sure that the system is responsive. Windows server vs. dekstop is tweaked a bit to make the desktop version more responsive. But I agree that I'd give up total throughput for instantly responsiveness.
The good news is that the Linux kernel can now be compiled to RTOS. Hopefully the desktops switch over to RTOS settings.
Read the thread. The question is what Apple does in the situation of share collapse.
Incidentally this is Microsoft's strategy for 25 years now.
The carriers don't want devices that will consume lots of 3G/4G bandwidth. They just don't have enough spectrum. If they get their wish and HD TV gets converted to carrier spectrum then maybe we'll see a push but right now the carriers aren't looking for anything "reasonably priced" on their getting rarer spectrum.
I'm seeing their popularity with middle aged people. Lots of people whose laptops are windows are getting the iOS / Apple integrated experience via. the iPad. I suspect if the tablet falls back into a niche it will be because those customers move over to Macbook Airs or something.
When did Apple ever have 98% of Smart phones. Q3 2008 was the first time iPhone sales even tied BlackBerry sales.
Apple by the early 1990s was in the 10% range. The clone stuff was devastating to Apple in the same way it was devastating to IBM, though less so.
There were 3 battles fought in succession.
1) The victory of IBM over most other platforms including Apple.
2) The victory of clones over IBM.
3) The victory of Windows over OS/2.
What are you talking about. Apple's profits from various parts of their business are public. While they like the idea of being in media, they make their money on hardware sales.
Like this:
http://androidandme.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/ev17d3.jpg