Sometimes the right scientific answer to a question is: "We don't know right now, because we don't have the evidence." That answer doesn't mean that we shouldn't even bother investigating -- in fact, it's probably a greater reason to investigate.
That's my point. Just because we don't know right now or exactly doesn't mean we can't explore the possibilities. Yes, it's speculation but so is everything in science until the evidence can be examined. That doesn't stop people from coming up with various theories and debating them. Many theories can be refined or debunked from that discussion.
R is the one I understand the least so you could be right. In my view star formation on its own is not enough as it doesn't take the star lifecycle into account. In all there are 10 types of star, of which it might be reasonable to assume F/G/K can support planets with life, in which case it would be (R * 0.227 or R=1.589). (22.7% of main-sequence stars are F/G/K type)
That wouldn't have a huge effect on something traveling at the speed of light. So while we're moving around the milky way at 72,000km/h these signals are moving around at 1,080,000,000km/h
If you're going based off rate of infection then those from Florida, New York, and Louisiana should not be allowed to donate either since they're more than twice as likely as someone from Virginia and more than 18 times more likely than someone from Vermont.
Shouldn't you specify a baseline infection rate if you're going to throw around "twice as likely" and "18 times more likely"?
There's a difference between a base rate of 0.0001% going up to 0.0018%, and 1% going up to 18%.
No, because the point was that looking at subgroups based on single factors was rather narrow sighted. One looks at MSM (men having sex with men) and you see a higher rate of infection there compared to non-MSM and say it's more than twice as likely but then even within MSM the numbers are wildly varied by different sub-groups. Hispanic MSM are half as likely as Black MSM. So should hispanic MSMs be allowed to donate? My point was the absurdity of it. Vermont has 1.3 aids cases per 100,000 people, New York has 29.2 per 100,000, Connecticut is actually the worst at 139 per 100,000. In Connecticut 39% of new cases are blacks - should blacks be banned from donating blood? No.
If Fermi states that it would take many millions of years that in itself is pointless as lets say L = 1,000. They wouldn't have millions upon millions of years to spread if their detectable signals are only around for a thousand. Perhaps you could use Fermi as a limit on the upper bounds of L so that L = 1,000,000.
This has not happened once, it's happened multiple times in the Homo genus
Homo gautengensis Homo habilis Homo erectus Homo antecessor Homo ergaster Homo rhodesiensis Homo heidelbergensis Homo neanderthalensis Homo floresiensis Denisova hominin Red Deer Cave people
That's 12 species, including homo sapiens, though homo sapiens killed off or absorbed the other 11 (remember, Homo sapiens are upto 30% Homo neanderthalensis due to interbreeding). Homininae are close enough genetically and many have shown the ability to communicate that they, given the lack of human presence, could evolve to our state as well. That's another 39 species.
Also, while you're taking the past into account you're not taking the future. In 4.6 billion years whether you want to say 1 to 12 species evolved depending on how you want to frame it. The Earth has an estimated 5 billion years remaining... so lets say in the next 100 years, even a million years, there's an extinction event and primates all die. That's 4.9 billion years for another intelligent species to develop.
Fermi's Paradox makes one major assumption: "the tendency to fill up all available territory seems to be a universal trait of living things"
This is a false assumption. While most species that come into an area that can sustain them tend to rise to 120% of the sustainable population then die back to 80%, humans do not follow this pattern. We've concentrated ourselves and while we've spread over a huge portion of the planet there's one curious thing that happens: the birth rate decreases with education:
Now imagine a society that is intelligent enough to go to the stars - would they continue to expand in the same manner as a less intelligent species? Even if they do, the massive resources required to mount a successful single colony expansion would likely only occur every few hundred years at most. Small outposts might crop up here and there as they explore but a full blown spread is highly unlikely or would take thousands upon thousands of years. And what about Earth? we're just starting to expand into our oceans and only for industry, very few of us go where it's cold, or where there's lots of insects, etc - who knows what the tolerances of an alien species might be?
Actually, many species have the potential of homo sapiens - with time, and without human presence, any one of the Primate order could eventually have risen in our place. We just got there first. One can't exclude the possibility of something like a dolphin or killer whale evolving to a land based intelligent creature. Your argument has the same problem as the Drake equation - it doesn't take into account time. Scientists estimate that there are 8.7 million species on earth and one can't have the ego to say that for the future history of the Earth that we will be the only intelligent species to develop. Maybe we all die off in some mass extinction and the Philippine tarsier becomes an intelligent/dominant species in a million years of evolution. Who really knows?
We're not extrapolating from a single data point though. We have estimates of the number of G type stars in the galaxy, we're starting to get more detailed information on the number of planets per star and their composition thanks to Kelper. While the numbers can vary widely without positing an equation you can't begin to narrow the results.
A + B = C could mean anything until you figure out what A and B are only then can C have meaning. Who will try to figure out A and B if you simply dismiss it as unknowable?
In that equation we currently can estimate R and refine the equation to only include G type stars, fp & ne can begin to be estimated as well. fl, fi, fc, and L are unknowable, and will continue to be so until species are discovered, which will likely never happen if no one believes it to be possible. The three other factors I mentioned D (distance), t (technology), and T (time) need to be added to the equation and the equation technically is about detectable signals not about alien behaviour - they could stay on their home planet and some technology emits a radio wave strong enough to be detected by us.
If you're going based off rate of infection then those from Florida, New York, and Louisiana should not be allowed to donate either since they're more than twice as likely as someone from Virginia and more than 18 times more likely than someone from Vermont.
The fact is that they test all the blood for HIV/AIDS and a bunch of other things because if they don't they've got some hefty liability to deal with. What they are likely worried about is freshly infected individuals who are not diagnosed yet and won't show up on the test as a result. Those individuals are nearly as likely in the general population as the MSM population (something like 57% of new cases are MSM and 43% are from the rest of the population, according to the CDC) Eliminating 11 million (~3.5%) people from the donating pool because 28,000 of them a year will be diagnosed with HIV... debatable whether or not that's reasonable because if you eliminate all other factors New Yorkers have a higher infection rate (0.0029 vs 0.0025 for MSM)
The problem with Drake's equation isn't the uncertainty - that's part of the assumption behind the equation. It's that it doesn't properly account for space & time. Let's say that the highest number is correct and that there are 100 million civilizations
In 4.6 billion year history of our solar system intelligent life has had the possibility of traveling to another star for 1.08695652e-8 of that time (that we know of anyway) - that means that of the 100 million civilizations less than 132 might exist at the same time and if distributed evenly would be 1 per 7.1969697e+15km of space. Meaning that our nearest neighbour might be 760 light years away. That means that if they just started transmitting at the same time we did, we won't pick them up for another 710 years. If they started 100,000,000 years ago those signals have long since passed us by and we likely don't have the science to pick up the more advanced signals that might be passing us by right now.
And develop better screening tests - they rejected me and told me never to donate again because I have a protein in my blood that triggers a false positive on the cheap HIV test. A proper, more expensive, test works just fine though.
That was a fun letter to get... starts off saying (paraphrasing) "Thank you for your donation, unfortunately your blood tested positive for HIV and cannot be accepted"... at this point most sane people might start freaking out and stop reading. When you do read on it explains it but I wonder how many people started calling people or crying before reading on.
Note that my statement was about the supposed DRAM/Flash problem not about Memristors in particular. That said, from that page, you'll also note that it's estimated to be another 4 years before these are commercially available (based on research that is 6 years old). Again from that page we've got this line: "The memristor is currently under development by various teams including Hewlett-Packard, SK Hynix and HRL Laboratories." so there's 2 of the 3 you requested and I'm quite sure that's not an exhaustive list.
I get what they're doing, it's nothing new - there are half a dozen hardware variations that are poised to solve the problem they're trying to solve. The way they're doing it, with the new OS, is why I think it's a money grab.
Nothing HP does is inspiring - this is a money grab plain and simple. They're hoping that they can create another walled garden just like Apple, Google, and Microsoft. They see the writing on the wall and they don't want to be left out.
I can't say as I have any interest in VR... sure it's an experience but like Kinect it's too involved. Gaming is relaxation for me - not moving around with a stupid rig on. Give me a controller, a screen, and something comfy to sit on.
If I wanted a realistic combat sim I'd go paintballing.
They always copy the interface of the most popular competition - that's how they got started remember? They want the interface to feel familiar when someone switches. It's what's under the surface which is different:
Yes, cause we're smart. Get the US to pay for then, get all the benefits with few of the drawbacks, and get paid to dismantle them later on. Sure we'd like to live in a nuclear free world but we're not so naive to believe that'll ever be a reality.
Don't get too excited - the data is garbage. My 25/10mbps connection wouldn't stream over 320p despite my ISP hosting a cache. I installed the Youtube HighDef addon and sure enough I can stream 1080p easily. Reports on dslr show that they've got serious issues with their cache servers in specific areas and if you bypass them (ie: block their IPs) you'll get better streaming results from other areas further away which further skews the data.
Slashdot Mirror
Except once it's offline it's no longer contained...
Sometimes the right scientific answer to a question is: "We don't know right now, because we don't have the evidence." That answer doesn't mean that we shouldn't even bother investigating -- in fact, it's probably a greater reason to investigate.
That's my point. Just because we don't know right now or exactly doesn't mean we can't explore the possibilities. Yes, it's speculation but so is everything in science until the evidence can be examined. That doesn't stop people from coming up with various theories and debating them. Many theories can be refined or debunked from that discussion.
R is the one I understand the least so you could be right. In my view star formation on its own is not enough as it doesn't take the star lifecycle into account. In all there are 10 types of star, of which it might be reasonable to assume F/G/K can support planets with life, in which case it would be (R * 0.227 or R=1.589). (22.7% of main-sequence stars are F/G/K type)
That wouldn't have a huge effect on something traveling at the speed of light. So while we're moving around the milky way at 72,000km/h these signals are moving around at 1,080,000,000km/h
If you're going based off rate of infection then those from Florida, New York, and Louisiana should not be allowed to donate either since they're more than twice as likely as someone from Virginia and more than 18 times more likely than someone from Vermont.
Shouldn't you specify a baseline infection rate if you're going to throw around "twice as likely" and "18 times more likely"?
There's a difference between a base rate of 0.0001% going up to 0.0018%, and 1% going up to 18%.
No, because the point was that looking at subgroups based on single factors was rather narrow sighted. One looks at MSM (men having sex with men) and you see a higher rate of infection there compared to non-MSM and say it's more than twice as likely but then even within MSM the numbers are wildly varied by different sub-groups. Hispanic MSM are half as likely as Black MSM. So should hispanic MSMs be allowed to donate? My point was the absurdity of it. Vermont has 1.3 aids cases per 100,000 people, New York has 29.2 per 100,000, Connecticut is actually the worst at 139 per 100,000. In Connecticut 39% of new cases are blacks - should blacks be banned from donating blood? No.
If Fermi states that it would take many millions of years that in itself is pointless as lets say L = 1,000. They wouldn't have millions upon millions of years to spread if their detectable signals are only around for a thousand. Perhaps you could use Fermi as a limit on the upper bounds of L so that L = 1,000,000.
This has not happened once, it's happened multiple times in the Homo genus
Homo gautengensis
Homo habilis
Homo erectus
Homo antecessor
Homo ergaster
Homo rhodesiensis
Homo heidelbergensis
Homo neanderthalensis
Homo floresiensis
Denisova hominin
Red Deer Cave people
That's 12 species, including homo sapiens, though homo sapiens killed off or absorbed the other 11 (remember, Homo sapiens are upto 30% Homo neanderthalensis due to interbreeding). Homininae are close enough genetically and many have shown the ability to communicate that they, given the lack of human presence, could evolve to our state as well. That's another 39 species.
Also, while you're taking the past into account you're not taking the future. In 4.6 billion years whether you want to say 1 to 12 species evolved depending on how you want to frame it. The Earth has an estimated 5 billion years remaining... so lets say in the next 100 years, even a million years, there's an extinction event and primates all die. That's 4.9 billion years for another intelligent species to develop.
https://lh4.googleusercontent....
Trying again on that link... there's a good study on it somewhere, can't locate it right now.
Fermi's Paradox makes one major assumption: "the tendency to fill up all available territory seems to be a universal trait of living things"
This is a false assumption. While most species that come into an area that can sustain them tend to rise to 120% of the sustainable population then die back to 80%, humans do not follow this pattern. We've concentrated ourselves and while we've spread over a huge portion of the planet there's one curious thing that happens: the birth rate decreases with education:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... //Birth Rate
https://lh4.googleusercontent.... /National_IQ_Lynn_Vanhanen_2006_IQ_and_Global_Inequality.png //IQ
Now imagine a society that is intelligent enough to go to the stars - would they continue to expand in the same manner as a less intelligent species? Even if they do, the massive resources required to mount a successful single colony expansion would likely only occur every few hundred years at most. Small outposts might crop up here and there as they explore but a full blown spread is highly unlikely or would take thousands upon thousands of years. And what about Earth? we're just starting to expand into our oceans and only for industry, very few of us go where it's cold, or where there's lots of insects, etc - who knows what the tolerances of an alien species might be?
Actually, many species have the potential of homo sapiens - with time, and without human presence, any one of the Primate order could eventually have risen in our place. We just got there first. One can't exclude the possibility of something like a dolphin or killer whale evolving to a land based intelligent creature. Your argument has the same problem as the Drake equation - it doesn't take into account time. Scientists estimate that there are 8.7 million species on earth and one can't have the ego to say that for the future history of the Earth that we will be the only intelligent species to develop. Maybe we all die off in some mass extinction and the Philippine tarsier becomes an intelligent/dominant species in a million years of evolution. Who really knows?
We're not extrapolating from a single data point though. We have estimates of the number of G type stars in the galaxy, we're starting to get more detailed information on the number of planets per star and their composition thanks to Kelper. While the numbers can vary widely without positing an equation you can't begin to narrow the results.
A + B = C could mean anything until you figure out what A and B are only then can C have meaning. Who will try to figure out A and B if you simply dismiss it as unknowable?
In that equation we currently can estimate R and refine the equation to only include G type stars, fp & ne can begin to be estimated as well. fl, fi, fc, and L are unknowable, and will continue to be so until species are discovered, which will likely never happen if no one believes it to be possible. The three other factors I mentioned D (distance), t (technology), and T (time) need to be added to the equation and the equation technically is about detectable signals not about alien behaviour - they could stay on their home planet and some technology emits a radio wave strong enough to be detected by us.
If you're going based off rate of infection then those from Florida, New York, and Louisiana should not be allowed to donate either since they're more than twice as likely as someone from Virginia and more than 18 times more likely than someone from Vermont.
The fact is that they test all the blood for HIV/AIDS and a bunch of other things because if they don't they've got some hefty liability to deal with. What they are likely worried about is freshly infected individuals who are not diagnosed yet and won't show up on the test as a result. Those individuals are nearly as likely in the general population as the MSM population (something like 57% of new cases are MSM and 43% are from the rest of the population, according to the CDC) Eliminating 11 million (~3.5%) people from the donating pool because 28,000 of them a year will be diagnosed with HIV... debatable whether or not that's reasonable because if you eliminate all other factors New Yorkers have a higher infection rate (0.0029 vs 0.0025 for MSM)
ugh. got caught up in my thoughts and made an omission
132 civs = assumes 1 civ is born and dies each year over the age of the milky way - not the solar system... the rest of it stands though.
The problem with Drake's equation isn't the uncertainty - that's part of the assumption behind the equation. It's that it doesn't properly account for space & time. Let's say that the highest number is correct and that there are 100 million civilizations
In 4.6 billion year history of our solar system intelligent life has had the possibility of traveling to another star for 1.08695652e-8 of that time (that we know of anyway) - that means that of the 100 million civilizations less than 132 might exist at the same time and if distributed evenly would be 1 per 7.1969697e+15km of space. Meaning that our nearest neighbour might be 760 light years away. That means that if they just started transmitting at the same time we did, we won't pick them up for another 710 years. If they started 100,000,000 years ago those signals have long since passed us by and we likely don't have the science to pick up the more advanced signals that might be passing us by right now.
And develop better screening tests - they rejected me and told me never to donate again because I have a protein in my blood that triggers a false positive on the cheap HIV test. A proper, more expensive, test works just fine though.
That was a fun letter to get... starts off saying (paraphrasing) "Thank you for your donation, unfortunately your blood tested positive for HIV and cannot be accepted"... at this point most sane people might start freaking out and stop reading. When you do read on it explains it but I wonder how many people started calling people or crying before reading on.
From that page:
In development
T-RAM
Z-RAM
CBRAM
SONOS
RRAM
Racetrack memory
NRAM
Millipede memory
FJG
Note that my statement was about the supposed DRAM/Flash problem not about Memristors in particular. That said, from that page, you'll also note that it's estimated to be another 4 years before these are commercially available (based on research that is 6 years old). Again from that page we've got this line: "The memristor is currently under development by various teams including Hewlett-Packard, SK Hynix and HRL Laboratories." so there's 2 of the 3 you requested and I'm quite sure that's not an exhaustive list.
I get what they're doing, it's nothing new - there are half a dozen hardware variations that are poised to solve the problem they're trying to solve. The way they're doing it, with the new OS, is why I think it's a money grab.
Nothing HP does is inspiring - this is a money grab plain and simple. They're hoping that they can create another walled garden just like Apple, Google, and Microsoft. They see the writing on the wall and they don't want to be left out.
I can't say as I have any interest in VR... sure it's an experience but like Kinect it's too involved. Gaming is relaxation for me - not moving around with a stupid rig on. Give me a controller, a screen, and something comfy to sit on.
If I wanted a realistic combat sim I'd go paintballing.
They always copy the interface of the most popular competition - that's how they got started remember? They want the interface to feel familiar when someone switches. It's what's under the surface which is different:
http://www.diffen.com/differen... (slightly out of date)
http://www.ghacks.net/2014/01/... - excellent analysis imo
Most importantly Firefox is MPL vs Google ToS. That alone is worth it for me.
Netflix has already issued a clarification. http://www.dslreports.com/show...
Yes, cause we're smart. Get the US to pay for then, get all the benefits with few of the drawbacks, and get paid to dismantle them later on. Sure we'd like to live in a nuclear free world but we're not so naive to believe that'll ever be a reality.
Ahmed the Bomber and Caleb the Destroyer! FEAR THEM!
I'm pretty sure they were referring to the MODERN justice system, ie post https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Don't get too excited - the data is garbage. My 25/10mbps connection wouldn't stream over 320p despite my ISP hosting a cache. I installed the Youtube HighDef addon and sure enough I can stream 1080p easily. Reports on dslr show that they've got serious issues with their cache servers in specific areas and if you bypass them (ie: block their IPs) you'll get better streaming results from other areas further away which further skews the data.