Oh, get real. The vandals and the bottle throwers weren't fighting against the WTO - they were opportunistic leeches piggybacking on the much larger true protests against the WTO. Most of them didn't even know what the WTO acronym meant - they just wanted to cause trouble and "have fun".
The real protesters had real reasons - just as my friends who live on Capitol Hill had to leave their apartments due to gas attacks and had reasons to be upset at the gestapo tactics of the police. Just as people I know on City Council were yanked from their cars for being black and well dressed and thus obviously protesters. Just as my coworkers were gassed just for waiting for the bus.
So stop the diatribe and point out that you're not even a real Seattleite. I live in Ballard and I'm moving to Fremont (both Seattle) - most of my friends live on Capitol Hill or Queen Anne or First Hill. We pay the salary of the police that gassed us and we're not thrilled that our city budget just got blown for a bunch of corporate greedmeisters - heck, I've got tens of thousands in overseas companies, and they'd probably gas me - but I still got into the Westin with Scott yesterday and did lunch with the WTO delegates.
People who snoop on other people deserve drastic actions.
If we let corporate America decide what privacy rights we have, then we will become (and are) second-class citizens in the World Net, behind the first-class citizens of the EU who can stop this kind of thing.
Who amended the US Constitution on me when I wasn't looking?
Then no prob. Besides, they probably wouldn't even notice where they were. We could tell them it was an "elite training school for atheletes" and have them do something useful for society like dig ditches.
Well, it's been groovy in Seattle so far. Went and deposited my E*Trade check (yeah, cashed out of RHAT at $119, but my new townhouse closes next Tuesday, so am still happy) and tons of protestors. Mostly Qui Lin Gong (you know, that Chinese Spiritual Movement they lock in prison for life, and there's a HQ just East of Seattle) with 2-3 people on every streetcorner. Hundreds of them.
Then got to Washington Mutual at Westlake Center, past the carousel and police city. Must have been 50 cops in 5 blocks. Protesters can only get within 2 blocks of the Convention Center. I just wanted lunch at the Blowfish Cafe, but would have had to walk 8 more blocks, so gave in and ate at the Westin (where tons of delegates staying, and media). Got a nice view of the Turtle March - hundreds of them, a nice giant Whale, probably 1000 protesters, with ok signs. Police were cool, protesters were cool, very Seattle.
Protesters shut down the Convention Center though, via telephone. And I got a bonus parade during lunch. Had interesting discussions with hotel staff, some pro-trade, one from El Salvador who was worried that there might be riots and all. Told them so long as the police let us get our Lattees, we'll be fine.
Didn't you catch that? We (the US) tried to bluff and get our way (labor issues) and the EU tried to bluff and get their way (enviro issues), and the rest of the countries didn't vote for either, so...
No Agenda This Year
Not that that changes any of the deal-making. Had fun on the plane rides with some of the attendees - quite amusing.
Well, all the planes were booked up solid from Santa Barbara and San Francisco, so I had to come back Saturday with my son. Tons of limos and press people flooding in. Not much banner hanging - the main stuff is in NYC or Paris really. Bunches of marches, none of which will be visible by the WTO attendees. Counter demonstration by right wing nutcases who can't count at the Space Needle monday night. Probably, in a city with about half a million population, you're looking at 50,000 to 100,000 protesters, mostly local churches, labor groups, and environmental groups.
Massive silence on the part of the media - they're pretending like nothing's happening, so as not to scare away all the tourists. Docks will shut down tuesday, so will a lot of other things (I get to telecommute).
OK, maybe some of you still remember the days when you coded for free or the thrill of it all, back before you were in on the IPOs (Red Hat, at $250 next week?), but here's a little World Economics 101 from someone who's invested hundreds of thousands overseas and thus profited from the WTO.
1. MSFT's idea about a moratorium on Net Taxes. Bad Idea. Look, read some Shakespeare, crack the spine, it's "Death and Taxes" that you can't avoid. Privacy costs, dude. Taxes will happen - either hidden in manufacturers or sellers costs, or out in the open with a VAT or GST, but it's gonna get you and you might as well deal with it.
2. Why the Enviros are right. Yes, you heard me, they're right. Any economic system is a system of "theoretical" laws which impose an arbitrary system of rules upon transactions. Without these, we don't get what are called "public services" and then only the rich (me, not you) can afford to pay what it really costs. All production has true costs - environmental pollution (yes, EVERYTHING causes pollution, just to varying degrees, some of which is easier to recycle through the environment or mechanical means), mineral costs, labor, water (this last one is more critical than you realize), and so on. Any "world trade" system must either assign a cost to pay for the pollution, or subsidize it at the cost of the receivers of pollution (hint - not the rich states). A system which allows corrupt politicians that people like me bribe to argue in my interests so that their country gets the "invisible" pollution quite literally stinks.
You can argue about how trade is really free till you're blue in the face (great, if you're a Celt), but it ain't. And when you make some serious bucks off of trade, I might listen to your rantings about how MSFT is right and the Enviros are wrong, but that won't happen anytime soon.
Well, that explains why my IPO shares are only at $65 (from the $50 IPO price). It seems to me the lawsuit might have more grounds IF it was a US company providing the insurance. Being that it isn't, many state regulations become meaningless in practice, due to the interpatria aspect of foreign countries.
And are we saying that UPS "created" this company or that, after doing business with this company, they decided to buy a controlling interest (aka Controlling a Vertical Industry) so as to gain more control over their business?
Given what people are saying about him, one would expect him to have a small amount of sympathy for MSFT's position, which may help him mediate between the Borg and the DOJ, in that he can connect with both.
But, in many ways, isn't it true that his hands are tied due to the consent decree and findings of fact which basically all but ask that MSFT be tied up to the stake and burnt alive?
I would agree that a number of IS shops will check out StarOffice. From my viewpoint I think the killer will be import/export of Word95/97 docs and Excel95/97 files. If it can't cope with these (and I don't mean VBA macros) than IS won't adopt it.
But under no circumstances should Sun try to out-market MSFT. You don't fight the enemy on their strong ground. Fix it, make it reliable, do a good job. That is why Linux is attractive.
If you mean that, without China, Linux will continue to be a minor OS, sure. But, if one adds China and the exponential growth that represents, then Linux has a good shot at becoming one of the top two OS.
The best thing we can hope for is that MSFT will crack down even more on pirated software, causing more people to adopt Linux and Open Source apps.
I mean, really, think about it. Are you saying that it is NOT an important enough case, with enough precedence for the future of this technologically-driven and dependent country? That a lower court is suitable, perhaps one in a specific state or circuit of states?
I kind of doubt it. Face it, this is the BIG SHOW. Do or Die. Roe v. Wade for the Software Industry.
The day the Supreme Court turns this down is the day that we elect women as both President and Vice-President to run this country. It may happen someday, but it sure won't happen today.
Since we're dealing in Internet Time, which is already accepted as a legal concept, that means the penalty phase will commence in about 16 months of clock time, which is 10 years in Internet Time.
Personally, since I know the media will be obsessing over this all weekend, I'd recommend buying some MSFT at a nice cheap price late Monday or most of Tuesday.
Me, I'm buying a townhouse and then selling my house, so I'm all invested for now.
1. Run over someone who got options with a truck, assume their identity, and cash in. 2. Work for a brokerage firm that takes the IPO public. 3. Marry someone who can give you Friends and Family IPO shares. 4. Be an exec at the firm that's IPO'd. 5. Contrib to code from the IPO firm. 6. Have more than $100K in an account at a major firm like Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and trade a bunch. 7. Be a famous actor, so you can get them to give you the Friends and Family.
All proven to work.
You can also try your luck with E*Trade ($50K+ account helps), Goldman Sachs, and a bunch of other firms that may have lesser requirements.
It did about what one would expect, given that few shares were offered in the IPO (most are still held) and it was considered to be one of the Red Hot IPOs for the month.
As to how long the market will take to deflate back to a reasonable level... for this stock, expect a good price about 30+ days from now, with a better price around 94 days and another chance in 180 days. Those are the periods when large blocks of shares are allowed to trade.
Personally, I thought they priced it low so that other people would want to buy more Linux IPOs, given that the profit potential is so high. I'm not sure if I got any allocation through MSDW, and know I didn't through E*Trade, but I'm holding for a longer period anyway.
Next one is VA Linux Systems, formerly VA Research. I've got some IPO shares of UPS.com, which should also be Red Hot, so I'm not complaining, but I keep hoping I'll get more Linux IPOs, because I love making the PHB think Linux is the best thing since English Muffins (or was that Hot Buttered Penguins)?
While I know that he's not British, and currently resides in the US, is there any chance that QEII might knight Linus for his work, especially considering the lack of direct recompense for his (and everyone else's) work?
And, since it is provided freely, could Red Hat put By Appointment To Her Royal Majesty on their web page? This might be cool.
While I would also like to know how you handle fault-tolerance, switching (hub/router?), and other techie things, there is one question I really would like to ask:
Have any members of the Royal Family shown interest in coding, and if so, is it possible they may contribute code to one of the Linux (or other Open Access) distros?
I mean, based on everything I've seen, it's a far superior chip for far less money.
But they've got a lot of cash to spread FUD with, so I'm sure they'll try. In some ways this can backfire, in that people wonder WHY they are so worried about Athlon - and then check it out.
The Wall Street Journal had two articles on this today (no, they only have a paid site - I read the copy we get in our non-profit's library).
The first one said that they estimate 30-40% of all boxes shipping for consumers this year will be Windows-less, but this includes BeOs and Palm type boxes which are bailing from WinCE, as well as set-top boxen. Some of them were going to use Apple/iMac (kind of confusing, that one).
The second article said that some MSFT technical indicators indicated, for the first time in decades, that forward revenue (upgrades for Windows, Office, etc) at MSFT were down a very large amount (10-20%), whereas the stock has counted on these increasing every year and thus commands high P/E ratio as a result. Which means that the end may be nigh.
Figure in mid-January they'll release stats showing that MSFT boxen were a drastically smaller (70%) amount than usual.
Slashdot Mirror
Oh, get real. The vandals and the bottle throwers weren't fighting against the WTO - they were opportunistic leeches piggybacking on the much larger true protests against the WTO. Most of them didn't even know what the WTO acronym meant - they just wanted to cause trouble and "have fun".
The real protesters had real reasons - just as my friends who live on Capitol Hill had to leave their apartments due to gas attacks and had reasons to be upset at the gestapo tactics of the police. Just as people I know on City Council were yanked from their cars for being black and well dressed and thus obviously protesters. Just as my coworkers were gassed just for waiting for the bus.
So stop the diatribe and point out that you're not even a real Seattleite. I live in Ballard and I'm moving to Fremont (both Seattle) - most of my friends live on Capitol Hill or Queen Anne or First Hill. We pay the salary of the police that gassed us and we're not thrilled that our city budget just got blown for a bunch of corporate greedmeisters - heck, I've got tens of thousands in overseas companies, and they'd probably gas me - but I still got into the Westin with Scott yesterday and did lunch with the WTO delegates.
People who snoop on other people deserve drastic actions.
If we let corporate America decide what privacy rights we have, then we will become (and are) second-class citizens in the World Net, behind the first-class citizens of the EU who can stop this kind of thing.
Who amended the US Constitution on me when I wasn't looking?
Then no prob. Besides, they probably wouldn't even notice where they were. We could tell them it was an "elite training school for atheletes" and have them do something useful for society like dig ditches.
I mean, he fit the profile.
To a T.
Well, it's been groovy in Seattle so far. Went and deposited my E*Trade check (yeah, cashed out of RHAT at $119, but my new townhouse closes next Tuesday, so am still happy) and tons of protestors. Mostly Qui Lin Gong (you know, that Chinese Spiritual Movement they lock in prison for life, and there's a HQ just East of Seattle) with 2-3 people on every streetcorner. Hundreds of them.
Then got to Washington Mutual at Westlake Center, past the carousel and police city. Must have been 50 cops in 5 blocks. Protesters can only get within 2 blocks of the Convention Center. I just wanted lunch at the Blowfish Cafe, but would have had to walk 8 more blocks, so gave in and ate at the Westin (where tons of delegates staying, and media). Got a nice view of the Turtle March - hundreds of them, a nice giant Whale, probably 1000 protesters, with ok signs. Police were cool, protesters were cool, very Seattle.
Protesters shut down the Convention Center though, via telephone. And I got a bonus parade during lunch. Had interesting discussions with hotel staff, some pro-trade, one from El Salvador who was worried that there might be riots and all. Told them so long as the police let us get our Lattees, we'll be fine.
Didn't you catch that? We (the US) tried to bluff and get our way (labor issues) and the EU tried to bluff and get their way (enviro issues), and the rest of the countries didn't vote for either, so ...
No Agenda This Year
Not that that changes any of the deal-making. Had fun on the plane rides with some of the attendees - quite amusing.
Well, all the planes were booked up solid from Santa Barbara and San Francisco, so I had to come back Saturday with my son. Tons of limos and press people flooding in. Not much banner hanging - the main stuff is in NYC or Paris really. Bunches of marches, none of which will be visible by the WTO attendees. Counter demonstration by right wing nutcases who can't count at the Space Needle monday night. Probably, in a city with about half a million population, you're looking at 50,000 to 100,000 protesters, mostly local churches, labor groups, and environmental groups.
Massive silence on the part of the media - they're pretending like nothing's happening, so as not to scare away all the tourists. Docks will shut down tuesday, so will a lot of other things (I get to telecommute).
OK, maybe some of you still remember the days when you coded for free or the thrill of it all, back before you were in on the IPOs (Red Hat, at $250 next week?), but here's a little World Economics 101 from someone who's invested hundreds of thousands overseas and thus profited from the WTO.
1. MSFT's idea about a moratorium on Net Taxes. Bad Idea. Look, read some Shakespeare, crack the spine, it's "Death and Taxes" that you can't avoid. Privacy costs, dude. Taxes will happen - either hidden in manufacturers or sellers costs, or out in the open with a VAT or GST, but it's gonna get you and you might as well deal with it.
2. Why the Enviros are right. Yes, you heard me, they're right. Any economic system is a system of "theoretical" laws which impose an arbitrary system of rules upon transactions. Without these, we don't get what are called "public services" and then only the rich (me, not you) can afford to pay what it really costs. All production has true costs - environmental pollution (yes, EVERYTHING causes pollution, just to varying degrees, some of which is easier to recycle through the environment or mechanical means), mineral costs, labor, water (this last one is more critical than you realize), and so on. Any "world trade" system must either assign a cost to pay for the pollution, or subsidize it at the cost of the receivers of pollution (hint - not the rich states). A system which allows corrupt politicians that people like me bribe to argue in my interests so that their country gets the "invisible" pollution quite literally stinks.
You can argue about how trade is really free till you're blue in the face (great, if you're a Celt), but it ain't. And when you make some serious bucks off of trade, I might listen to your rantings about how MSFT is right and the Enviros are wrong, but that won't happen anytime soon.
Really, a fine of $250,000 is just a cost of doing business. The only thing is it's not deductible, due to being a fine.
...
Expect more of this - this is just the tip of the iceberg, the lone case where they got caught, not the majority of cases.
Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not spying on you
Well, that explains why my IPO shares are only at $65 (from the $50 IPO price). It seems to me the lawsuit might have more grounds IF it was a US company providing the insurance. Being that it isn't, many state regulations become meaningless in practice, due to the interpatria aspect of foreign countries.
And are we saying that UPS "created" this company or that, after doing business with this company, they decided to buy a controlling interest (aka Controlling a Vertical Industry) so as to gain more control over their business?
Given what people are saying about him, one would expect him to have a small amount of sympathy for MSFT's position, which may help him mediate between the Borg and the DOJ, in that he can connect with both.
But, in many ways, isn't it true that his hands are tied due to the consent decree and findings of fact which basically all but ask that MSFT be tied up to the stake and burnt alive?
So, given that, this may have been a wise choice.
I would agree that a number of IS shops will check out StarOffice. From my viewpoint I think the killer will be import/export of Word95/97 docs and Excel95/97 files. If it can't cope with these (and I don't mean VBA macros) than IS won't adopt it.
But under no circumstances should Sun try to out-market MSFT. You don't fight the enemy on their strong ground. Fix it, make it reliable, do a good job. That is why Linux is attractive.
If you mean that, without China, Linux will continue to be a minor OS, sure. But, if one adds China and the exponential growth that represents, then Linux has a good shot at becoming one of the top two OS.
The best thing we can hope for is that MSFT will crack down even more on pirated software, causing more people to adopt Linux and Open Source apps.
And do they really believe in Open Source or will they try to ignore GPL?
Seriously, though, I've been expecting this for the last few months, as a logical progression. And as a necessary prerequisite for Linux growth.
I mean, really, think about it. Are you saying that it is NOT an important enough case, with enough precedence for the future of this technologically-driven and dependent country? That a lower court is suitable, perhaps one in a specific state or circuit of states?
I kind of doubt it. Face it, this is the BIG SHOW. Do or Die. Roe v. Wade for the Software Industry.
The day the Supreme Court turns this down is the day that we elect women as both President and Vice-President to run this country. It may happen someday, but it sure won't happen today.
Well, if you're actually contributing code instead of cashing in on the IPOs - yeah, you're a real ubergeek.
That doesn't mean that ubergeeks don't get stock options or IPO shares for their contribs, just that it's not your focus - the code is.
Since we're dealing in Internet Time, which is already accepted as a legal concept, that means the penalty phase will commence in about 16 months of clock time, which is 10 years in Internet Time.
Personally, since I know the media will be obsessing over this all weekend, I'd recommend buying some MSFT at a nice cheap price late Monday or most of Tuesday.
Me, I'm buying a townhouse and then selling my house, so I'm all invested for now.
1. Run over someone who got options with a truck, assume their identity, and cash in.
2. Work for a brokerage firm that takes the IPO public.
3. Marry someone who can give you Friends and Family IPO shares.
4. Be an exec at the firm that's IPO'd.
5. Contrib to code from the IPO firm.
6. Have more than $100K in an account at a major firm like Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and trade a bunch.
7. Be a famous actor, so you can get them to give you the Friends and Family.
All proven to work.
You can also try your luck with E*Trade ($50K+ account helps), Goldman Sachs, and a bunch of other firms that may have lesser requirements.
Yo! Then we can either follow this stuff or be ignored by the real ubergeeks who actually crank out code most of the time.
It did about what one would expect, given that few shares were offered in the IPO (most are still held) and it was considered to be one of the Red Hot IPOs for the month.
... for this stock, expect a good price about 30+ days from now, with a better price around 94 days and another chance in 180 days. Those are the periods when large blocks of shares are allowed to trade.
As to how long the market will take to deflate back to a reasonable level
Personally, I thought they priced it low so that other people would want to buy more Linux IPOs, given that the profit potential is so high. I'm not sure if I got any allocation through MSDW, and know I didn't through E*Trade, but I'm holding for a longer period anyway.
Next one is VA Linux Systems, formerly VA Research. I've got some IPO shares of UPS.com, which should also be Red Hot, so I'm not complaining, but I keep hoping I'll get more Linux IPOs, because I love making the PHB think Linux is the best thing since English Muffins (or was that Hot Buttered Penguins)?
While I know that he's not British, and currently resides in the US, is there any chance that QEII might knight Linus for his work, especially considering the lack of direct recompense for his (and everyone else's) work?
And, since it is provided freely, could Red Hat put By Appointment To Her Royal Majesty on their web page? This might be cool.
While I would also like to know how you handle fault-tolerance, switching (hub/router?), and other techie things, there is one question I really would like to ask:
Have any members of the Royal Family shown interest in coding, and if so, is it possible they may contribute code to one of the Linux (or other Open Access) distros?
I mean, based on everything I've seen, it's a far superior chip for far less money.
But they've got a lot of cash to spread FUD with, so I'm sure they'll try. In some ways this can backfire, in that people wonder WHY they are so worried about Athlon - and then check it out.
The Wall Street Journal had two articles on this today (no, they only have a paid site - I read the copy we get in our non-profit's library).
The first one said that they estimate 30-40% of all boxes shipping for consumers this year will be Windows-less, but this includes BeOs and Palm type boxes which are bailing from WinCE, as well as set-top boxen. Some of them were going to use Apple/iMac (kind of confusing, that one).
The second article said that some MSFT technical indicators indicated, for the first time in decades, that forward revenue (upgrades for Windows, Office, etc) at MSFT were down a very large amount (10-20%), whereas the stock has counted on these increasing every year and thus commands high P/E ratio as a result. Which means that the end may be nigh.
Figure in mid-January they'll release stats showing that MSFT boxen were a drastically smaller (70%) amount than usual.