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User: I'm+Hammered

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  1. Re:US Legal system on Man Sued For $30K Over $40 Printer He Sold On Craigslist (usatoday.com) · · Score: 2

    Why not sue if you have a 90% chance of winning?

    Because the potential loss is so much greater than the potential gain. There is a concept in probability theory called expected value. It's essentially a weighted average of the various possible outcomes.

    In this case it would simply be: (what you have to gain) * (probability of winning) + (what you have to lose) * (probability of losing).

    ($500) * (0.9) + (-$30,000) * (0.1) = $450 - $3,000 = -$2,550

    So the decision to sue will average out to a (per occurrence) loss of $2,550. That's why you shouldn't sue.