Re:A cruel thought...
on
More On Tragedy
·
· Score: 2, Insightful
You can assume that no one knew they were going to die. How many hijackings end in the death of everyone? Very few. They have already released statments saying that conversations aboard one of the planes that were transmitted through one of the pilot's mike went along the lines of "Dont do anything foolish and you wont get hurt." However, the Pittsburgh plane terrorists told the passengers they were going to die. The plane crashed in the middle of nowhere and we can safely assume this was a last ditch effort by the terrorists to kill anyone as the passengers took over the plane.
The point i'm making is, if the passengers on those other planes knew what was going to happen...they would have ripped the terrorists apart with their teeth.
We have entered a world where when your plane gets hijacked, assume you are already dead.
~Steve
www.foggymyst.com
Part 2... My Prediction To How The US Will React
on
More On Tragedy
·
· Score: 1
Last night I spent rougly an hour drafting the predictions I posted earlier. I had more theories that were based off of the terrorist group not being related to Afghanistan but I reached a point where I was so tired I could barely keep writing, so I stopped. I will now continue, however I will continue with the assumption that the terrorist organization responsible for yesterday's attacks is Afghan.
Yesterday I stated that a US strike against Afghanistan would have two goals: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. If the strike were to be along the same magnitude as the previous strikes against Afghanistan I predicted we would see a short offensive consisting almost entirely of cruise missles. I also predicted that this retaliation would fall very short of what Americans would consider ample punishment. Any offensive would undoubtley result in heightened tensions in the Middle East, price hikes at the gas pump and further terrorist attacks.
Today I will focus on the possibility that the US will retaliate with a much harsher, colder offensive- which as events unfold is becoming more plausible.
A large scale retaliatory attack would have the same goals as the aforementioned attack: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. The difference would be the extent to which this objective is carried out and an extended effort to remove the Taliban goverment (which is apparently sympathetic with terroists). My previous prediction may temporarily stun or slow terrorism but it would surely not stop it. In fact it may provide more fuel for the fire. A larger scale attack would involve severley damaging the Afghan goverment and its military as well as areas of finical importance. This may slow terrorism, or it may increase it. I dont know.
Unfortunatley, no allied nations border Afghanistan. Due to this we are nearly guarenteed an air war which depends wholely on our ability to defeat the Afghan air defenses. In order to carry out air attacks, coalition aircraft must tresspass through another country's airspace, either Pakistan or Iran. In this case it would most likely be safer to go through Pakistan as we have done before, but Pakistan could become hostile-- although I doubt this will occur. Keep in mind that Pakistan is the only goverment that recognizes the Taliban goverment in control of Afganistan so one could easily deduct they are near allies. To what extent Pakistan would defend its airspace, to what extent it would aid Afghanistan and to what extent the United States would violate it Pakistani airspace is anyones guess. I can imagine the Afghan goverment demanding the Pakistani goverment shoot down American craft. I can also imagine a potential political and possible physical conflict developing over this issue.
A ground war is almost totally out of the picture. Again, to get troops into Afghanistan would require penetrating another country's air space. Furthermore, a ground war would be dangerous at best as Afghanistan has already been host to a 10 year war meaning veteran guerillas are in abundance and worse still is the area littered with mines.
So in summary, an extended campaign against Afghanistan would surely be air based. It would bring up many issues for Pakistan and their relations with Afghanistan and would surely make the area "hot" as things became hostile. Ground assault is almost completley out of the question. However, other nations siding with Afghanistan could complicate the issue beyond all reason and lead to a greater conflict that could dwarf previous conflicts in the Middle East.
I guess we'll see what happens.
My Prediction To How The US Will React....
on
More On Tragedy
·
· Score: 1
Here is my educated guesses as to what will occur next:
There will be further attacks, their magnitude is beyond me.
The US will attempt to identify the organization behind this attack and any following attack.
If the organization is found to be Osma Bin Laden, the following is my best guess as to what will happen-
I am fairly confident that the US has a good idea where Osama Bin Laden is located. They may claim not too, but I am sure they have a good idea. Already rocket attacks are reported in Kabul. I have little doubt this is due to American influence, particulary the CIA's. The CIA is notorious for influencing various foreign activities, most notably coups and wars and due to the Afghanistan/Russian was we already have a good share of influence there.
The first objective will be to destroy Osama Bin Laden and his "army". Unfortunatley Afghanistan is not located in an ideal geographic location (surrounded by Iran, Pakistan and other such nations) for a military campaign. Also, this is not the friendliest of countries.
"Afghanistan was invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union in 1979. The USSR was forced to withdraw 10 years later by anti-communist mujahidin forces supplied and trained by the US, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and others. Fighting subsequently continued among the various mujahidin factions, but the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban movement has been able to seize most of the country. In addition to the continuing civil strife, the country suffers from enormous poverty, a crumbling infrastructure, and widespread live mines. "
However, as you can see America already has some friendly forces (the mujahidin) in the area. Again, do you think its coincedence that Kabul was attacked this afternoon?
I digress. Osama Bin Laden will most likely be hiding in a bunker built somewhere in Afghanistan. If the location of this bunker is know it will surely fall prey to a wide assortment of American missles. However, again, Afghanistans geographic location creates problmes that would hinder extended attacks.
Bombs designed to destroy hardened bunkers, "bunker busters",must be delived via jet. To get to Afghanistan the US aircraft and missles must cross through Pakistanian airspace. During the 1998 missle attacks by the United States against Osama Bin Laden, 70 to 80 cruise missle made their way across Pakistanian airspace leading Pakistan to file a complaint to the UN. While this complaint did not lead to anything significant, an extended campaign in this area could cause major issues.
Along with Osama Bin Laden, the US will strike at Afghanistan for sponsoring such activities. Potential targets include weapons factories, military installations (notably SAM and radar sites), fuel depots, bridges, etc. The objective would be to cripple terrorist activities in Afghanistan and to generally dent the economy of the nation. I have no doubt there is a list of potential targets being generated as I write this. Once the list of targets and objectives had been generated the attack would be launched and most likely would be over in a period of hours, possibly days but not extending into more than a week. The attack would probly consist of Tomahawk cruise missles laden with conventional warheads striking various targets spread throughout the area.
For reasons mentioned above, an extended campaign would be very tricky and would be the most likely canidate for causing an escalation in hostilities. I predict that any attack by the US against Afghanistan will be extremely swift and will last but hours.
Surrounding nations will object, but no official action from any such nations will occur.
Finally, I predict that US sponsored guerilla activities will heighten in the region. We will see an increase in violence in Afghanistan as things progress.
Attacking Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan is a tactical and political issue that could reach potentially deadly levels. I am very interested to see what happens if Afghanistan is indeed held responsible.
Unfortunatley the result of any action by the US will be further terrorist attacks. This is almost a given. Also, any attack we make will not make up for what occured this morning. Nothing aside from a full scale retaliation can appease the anger that has filled America.
That is my speculation for now. I am way to tired to continue so I will stop here. There is more, but I will save my insight for later.
Until later. If you would like to read more spectualtion check out http://www.foggymyst.com
Predictions For Possible Retaliation
on
More On Tragedy
·
· Score: 1
By Steve from www.Foggymyst.com
So here we are. Areas of New York have been declared a major disaster area. The military is at Defcon 2. Thousands are feared dead. The stock market and air travel have completly shut down. America has stopped dead in the water and we dont know what to do next.
What can we expect? It would be foolish to expect the apocalypse but it would be equally foolish to expect nothing. I have spent all day contemplating this as I watch horrid videos of airliners peircing through buildings. It is useless to keep these thoughts and predictions to myself, so I have detailed them out on this page for your speculation. Please note that I dont consider myself an expert by any means, but I do know that world history is one of my strengths and as an avid news watcher I consider myself versed in current happenings.
Here is what we know:
Two large airliners were hijacked and intentionally crashed into the World Trade Center leveling both towers and subsequentlly destroying a smaller, but still sizable, third tower.
One airliner was hijacked with the intention of crashing into the Whitehouse but was seen making radical manuevers as it changed course for the Pentagon. It crashed into the Pentagon.
Another airliner was hijacked but crashed outside of Pittsburgh.
The president stated he will hold the terrorists and the nation harboring the terrorists equally responsible.
Here is my educated guesses as to what will occur next:
There will be further attacks, their magnitude is beyond me.
The US will attempt to identify the organization behind this attack and any following attack.
If the organization is found to be Osma Bin Laden, the following is my best guess as to what will happen-
I am fairly confident that the US has a good idea where Osama Bin Laden is located. They may claim not too, but I am sure they have a good idea. Already rocket attacks are reported in Kabul. I have little doubt this is due to American influence, particulary the CIA's. The CIA is notorious for influencing various foreign activities, most notably coups and wars and due to the Afghanistan/Russian was we already have a good share of influence there.
The first objective will be to destroy Osama Bin Laden and his "army". Unfortunatley Afghanistan is not located in an ideal geographic location (surrounded by Iran, Pakistan and other such nations) for a military campaign. Also, this is not the friendliest of countries.
"Afghanistan was invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union in 1979. The USSR was forced to withdraw 10 years later by anti-communist mujahidin forces supplied and trained by the US, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and others. Fighting subsequently continued among the various mujahidin factions, but the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban movement has been able to seize most of the country. In addition to the continuing civil strife, the country suffers from enormous poverty, a crumbling infrastructure, and widespread live mines. "
However, as you can see America already has some friendly forces (the mujahidin) in the area. Again, do you think its coincedence that Kabul was attacked this afternoon?
I digress. Osama Bin Laden will most likely be hiding in a bunker built somewhere in Afghanistan. If the location of this bunker is know it will surely fall prey to a wide assortment of American missles. However, again, Afghanistans geographic location creates problmes that would hinder extended attacks.
Bombs designed to destroy hardened bunkers, "bunker busters",must be delived via jet. To get to Afghanistan the US aircraft and missles must cross through Pakistanian airspace. During the 1998 missle attacks by the United States against Osama Bin Laden, 70 to 80 cruise missle made their way across Pakistanian airspace leading Pakistan to file a complaint to the UN. While this complaint did not lead to anything significant, an extended campaign in this area could cause major issues.
Along with Osama Bin Laden, the US will strike at Afghanistan for sponsoring such activities. Potential targets include weapons factories, military installations (notably SAM and radar sites), fuel depots, bridges, etc. The objective would be to cripple terrorist activities in Afghanistan and to generally dent the economy of the nation. I have no doubt there is a list of potential targets being generated as I write this. Once the list of targets and objectives had been generated the attack would be launched and most likely would be over in a period of hours, possibly days but not extending into more than a week. The attack would probly consist of Tomahawk cruise missles laden with conventional warheads striking various targets spread throughout the area.
For reasons mentioned above, an extended campaign would be very tricky and would be the most likely canidate for causing an escalation in hostilities. I predict that any attack by the US against Afghanistan will be extremely swift and will last but hours.
Surrounding nations will object, but no official action from any such nations will occur.
Finally, I predict that US sponsored guerilla activities will heighten in the region. We will see an increase in violence in Afghanistan as things progress.
Attacking Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan is a tactical and political issue that could reach potentially deadly levels. I am very interested to see what happens if Afghanistan is indeed held responsible.
Unfortunatley the result of any action by the US will be further terrorist attacks. This is almost a given. Also, any attack we make will not make up for what occured this morning. Nothing aside from a full scale retaliation can appease the anger that has filled America.
That is my speculation for now. I am way to tired to continue so I will stop here. There is more, but I will save my insight for later.
Until later.
-------------
Last night I spent rougly an hour drafting the predictions I posted to my website below. I had more theories that were based off of the terrorist group not being related to Afghanistan but I reached a point where I was so tired I could barely keep writing, so I stopped. I will now continue, however I will continue with the assumption that the terrorist organization responsible for yesterday's attacks is Afghan.
Yesterday I stated that a US strike against Afghanistan would have two goals: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. If the strike were to be along the same magnitude as the previous strikes against Afghanistan I predicted we would see a short offensive consisting almost entirely of cruise missles. I also predicted that this retaliation would fall very short of what Americans would consider ample punishment. Any offensive would undoubtley result in heightened tensions in the Middle East, price hikes at the gas pump and further terrorist attacks.
Today I will focus on the possibility that the US will retaliate with a much harsher, colder offensive- which as events unfold is becoming more plausible.
A large scale retaliatory attack would have the same goals as the aforementioned attack: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. The difference would be the extent to which this objective is carried out and an extended effort to remove the Taliban goverment (which is apparently sympathetic with terroists). My previous prediction may temporarily stun or slow terrorism but it would surely not stop it. In fact it may provide more fuel for the fire. A larger scale attack would involve severley damaging the Afghan goverment and its military as well as areas of finical importance. This may slow terrorism, or it may increase it. I dont know.
Unfortunatley, no allied nations border Afghanistan. Due to this we are nearly guarenteed an air war which depends wholely on our ability to defeat the Afghan air defenses. In order to carry out air attacks, coalition aircraft must tresspass through another country's airspace, either Pakistan or Iran. In this case it would most likely be safer to go through Pakistan as we have done before, but Pakistan could become hostile-- although I doubt this will occur. Keep in mind that Pakistan is the only goverment that recognizes the Taliban goverment in control of Afganistan so one could easily deduct they are near allies. To what extent Pakistan would defend its airspace, to what extent it would aid Afghanistan and to what extent the United States would violate it Pakistani airspace is anyones guess. I can imagine the Afghan goverment demanding the Pakistani goverment shoot down American craft. I can also imagine a potential political and possible physical conflict developing over this issue.
A ground war is almost totally out of the picture. Again, to get troops into Afghanistan would require penetrating another country's air space. Furthermore, a ground war would be dangerous at best as Afghanistan has already been host to a 10 year war meaning veteran guerillas are in abundance and worse still is the area littered with mines.
So in summary, an extended campaign against Afghanistan would surely be air based. It would bring up many issues for Pakistan and their relations with Afghanistan and would surely make the area "hot" as things became hostile. Ground assault is almost completley out of the question. However, other nations siding with Afghanistan could complicate the issue beyond all reason and lead to a greater conflict that could dwarf previous conflicts in the Middle East.
I guess we'll see what happens.
Slashdot Mirror
You can assume that no one knew they were going to die. How many hijackings end in the death of everyone? Very few. They have already released statments saying that conversations aboard one of the planes that were transmitted through one of the pilot's mike went along the lines of "Dont do anything foolish and you wont get hurt." However, the Pittsburgh plane terrorists told the passengers they were going to die. The plane crashed in the middle of nowhere and we can safely assume this was a last ditch effort by the terrorists to kill anyone as the passengers took over the plane. The point i'm making is, if the passengers on those other planes knew what was going to happen...they would have ripped the terrorists apart with their teeth. We have entered a world where when your plane gets hijacked, assume you are already dead. ~Steve www.foggymyst.com
Yesterday I stated that a US strike against Afghanistan would have two goals: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. If the strike were to be along the same magnitude as the previous strikes against Afghanistan I predicted we would see a short offensive consisting almost entirely of cruise missles. I also predicted that this retaliation would fall very short of what Americans would consider ample punishment. Any offensive would undoubtley result in heightened tensions in the Middle East, price hikes at the gas pump and further terrorist attacks.
Today I will focus on the possibility that the US will retaliate with a much harsher, colder offensive- which as events unfold is becoming more plausible.
A large scale retaliatory attack would have the same goals as the aforementioned attack: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. The difference would be the extent to which this objective is carried out and an extended effort to remove the Taliban goverment (which is apparently sympathetic with terroists). My previous prediction may temporarily stun or slow terrorism but it would surely not stop it. In fact it may provide more fuel for the fire. A larger scale attack would involve severley damaging the Afghan goverment and its military as well as areas of finical importance. This may slow terrorism, or it may increase it. I dont know.
Unfortunatley, no allied nations border Afghanistan. Due to this we are nearly guarenteed an air war which depends wholely on our ability to defeat the Afghan air defenses. In order to carry out air attacks, coalition aircraft must tresspass through another country's airspace, either Pakistan or Iran. In this case it would most likely be safer to go through Pakistan as we have done before, but Pakistan could become hostile-- although I doubt this will occur. Keep in mind that Pakistan is the only goverment that recognizes the Taliban goverment in control of Afganistan so one could easily deduct they are near allies. To what extent Pakistan would defend its airspace, to what extent it would aid Afghanistan and to what extent the United States would violate it Pakistani airspace is anyones guess. I can imagine the Afghan goverment demanding the Pakistani goverment shoot down American craft. I can also imagine a potential political and possible physical conflict developing over this issue.
A ground war is almost totally out of the picture. Again, to get troops into Afghanistan would require penetrating another country's air space. Furthermore, a ground war would be dangerous at best as Afghanistan has already been host to a 10 year war meaning veteran guerillas are in abundance and worse still is the area littered with mines.
So in summary, an extended campaign against Afghanistan would surely be air based. It would bring up many issues for Pakistan and their relations with Afghanistan and would surely make the area "hot" as things became hostile. Ground assault is almost completley out of the question. However, other nations siding with Afghanistan could complicate the issue beyond all reason and lead to a greater conflict that could dwarf previous conflicts in the Middle East.
I guess we'll see what happens.
There will be further attacks, their magnitude is beyond me.
The US will attempt to identify the organization behind this attack and any following attack.
If the organization is found to be Osma Bin Laden, the following is my best guess as to what will happen-
I am fairly confident that the US has a good idea where Osama Bin Laden is located. They may claim not too, but I am sure they have a good idea. Already rocket attacks are reported in Kabul. I have little doubt this is due to American influence, particulary the CIA's. The CIA is notorious for influencing various foreign activities, most notably coups and wars and due to the Afghanistan/Russian was we already have a good share of influence there.
The first objective will be to destroy Osama Bin Laden and his "army". Unfortunatley Afghanistan is not located in an ideal geographic location (surrounded by Iran, Pakistan and other such nations) for a military campaign. Also, this is not the friendliest of countries.
"Afghanistan was invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union in 1979. The USSR was forced to withdraw 10 years later by anti-communist mujahidin forces supplied and trained by the US, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and others. Fighting subsequently continued among the various mujahidin factions, but the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban movement has been able to seize most of the country. In addition to the continuing civil strife, the country suffers from enormous poverty, a crumbling infrastructure, and widespread live mines. "
However, as you can see America already has some friendly forces (the mujahidin) in the area. Again, do you think its coincedence that Kabul was attacked this afternoon?
I digress. Osama Bin Laden will most likely be hiding in a bunker built somewhere in Afghanistan. If the location of this bunker is know it will surely fall prey to a wide assortment of American missles. However, again, Afghanistans geographic location creates problmes that would hinder extended attacks.
Bombs designed to destroy hardened bunkers, "bunker busters",must be delived via jet. To get to Afghanistan the US aircraft and missles must cross through Pakistanian airspace. During the 1998 missle attacks by the United States against Osama Bin Laden, 70 to 80 cruise missle made their way across Pakistanian airspace leading Pakistan to file a complaint to the UN. While this complaint did not lead to anything significant, an extended campaign in this area could cause major issues.
Along with Osama Bin Laden, the US will strike at Afghanistan for sponsoring such activities. Potential targets include weapons factories, military installations (notably SAM and radar sites), fuel depots, bridges, etc. The objective would be to cripple terrorist activities in Afghanistan and to generally dent the economy of the nation. I have no doubt there is a list of potential targets being generated as I write this. Once the list of targets and objectives had been generated the attack would be launched and most likely would be over in a period of hours, possibly days but not extending into more than a week. The attack would probly consist of Tomahawk cruise missles laden with conventional warheads striking various targets spread throughout the area.
For reasons mentioned above, an extended campaign would be very tricky and would be the most likely canidate for causing an escalation in hostilities. I predict that any attack by the US against Afghanistan will be extremely swift and will last but hours.
Surrounding nations will object, but no official action from any such nations will occur.
Finally, I predict that US sponsored guerilla activities will heighten in the region. We will see an increase in violence in Afghanistan as things progress.
Attacking Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan is a tactical and political issue that could reach potentially deadly levels. I am very interested to see what happens if Afghanistan is indeed held responsible.
Unfortunatley the result of any action by the US will be further terrorist attacks. This is almost a given. Also, any attack we make will not make up for what occured this morning. Nothing aside from a full scale retaliation can appease the anger that has filled America.
That is my speculation for now. I am way to tired to continue so I will stop here. There is more, but I will save my insight for later.
Until later. If you would like to read more spectualtion check out http://www.foggymyst.com
By Steve from www.Foggymyst.com So here we are. Areas of New York have been declared a major disaster area. The military is at Defcon 2. Thousands are feared dead. The stock market and air travel have completly shut down. America has stopped dead in the water and we dont know what to do next. What can we expect? It would be foolish to expect the apocalypse but it would be equally foolish to expect nothing. I have spent all day contemplating this as I watch horrid videos of airliners peircing through buildings. It is useless to keep these thoughts and predictions to myself, so I have detailed them out on this page for your speculation. Please note that I dont consider myself an expert by any means, but I do know that world history is one of my strengths and as an avid news watcher I consider myself versed in current happenings. Here is what we know: Two large airliners were hijacked and intentionally crashed into the World Trade Center leveling both towers and subsequentlly destroying a smaller, but still sizable, third tower. One airliner was hijacked with the intention of crashing into the Whitehouse but was seen making radical manuevers as it changed course for the Pentagon. It crashed into the Pentagon. Another airliner was hijacked but crashed outside of Pittsburgh. The president stated he will hold the terrorists and the nation harboring the terrorists equally responsible. Here is my educated guesses as to what will occur next: There will be further attacks, their magnitude is beyond me. The US will attempt to identify the organization behind this attack and any following attack. If the organization is found to be Osma Bin Laden, the following is my best guess as to what will happen- I am fairly confident that the US has a good idea where Osama Bin Laden is located. They may claim not too, but I am sure they have a good idea. Already rocket attacks are reported in Kabul. I have little doubt this is due to American influence, particulary the CIA's. The CIA is notorious for influencing various foreign activities, most notably coups and wars and due to the Afghanistan/Russian was we already have a good share of influence there. The first objective will be to destroy Osama Bin Laden and his "army". Unfortunatley Afghanistan is not located in an ideal geographic location (surrounded by Iran, Pakistan and other such nations) for a military campaign. Also, this is not the friendliest of countries. "Afghanistan was invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union in 1979. The USSR was forced to withdraw 10 years later by anti-communist mujahidin forces supplied and trained by the US, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and others. Fighting subsequently continued among the various mujahidin factions, but the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban movement has been able to seize most of the country. In addition to the continuing civil strife, the country suffers from enormous poverty, a crumbling infrastructure, and widespread live mines. " However, as you can see America already has some friendly forces (the mujahidin) in the area. Again, do you think its coincedence that Kabul was attacked this afternoon? I digress. Osama Bin Laden will most likely be hiding in a bunker built somewhere in Afghanistan. If the location of this bunker is know it will surely fall prey to a wide assortment of American missles. However, again, Afghanistans geographic location creates problmes that would hinder extended attacks. Bombs designed to destroy hardened bunkers, "bunker busters",must be delived via jet. To get to Afghanistan the US aircraft and missles must cross through Pakistanian airspace. During the 1998 missle attacks by the United States against Osama Bin Laden, 70 to 80 cruise missle made their way across Pakistanian airspace leading Pakistan to file a complaint to the UN. While this complaint did not lead to anything significant, an extended campaign in this area could cause major issues. Along with Osama Bin Laden, the US will strike at Afghanistan for sponsoring such activities. Potential targets include weapons factories, military installations (notably SAM and radar sites), fuel depots, bridges, etc. The objective would be to cripple terrorist activities in Afghanistan and to generally dent the economy of the nation. I have no doubt there is a list of potential targets being generated as I write this. Once the list of targets and objectives had been generated the attack would be launched and most likely would be over in a period of hours, possibly days but not extending into more than a week. The attack would probly consist of Tomahawk cruise missles laden with conventional warheads striking various targets spread throughout the area. For reasons mentioned above, an extended campaign would be very tricky and would be the most likely canidate for causing an escalation in hostilities. I predict that any attack by the US against Afghanistan will be extremely swift and will last but hours. Surrounding nations will object, but no official action from any such nations will occur. Finally, I predict that US sponsored guerilla activities will heighten in the region. We will see an increase in violence in Afghanistan as things progress. Attacking Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan is a tactical and political issue that could reach potentially deadly levels. I am very interested to see what happens if Afghanistan is indeed held responsible. Unfortunatley the result of any action by the US will be further terrorist attacks. This is almost a given. Also, any attack we make will not make up for what occured this morning. Nothing aside from a full scale retaliation can appease the anger that has filled America. That is my speculation for now. I am way to tired to continue so I will stop here. There is more, but I will save my insight for later. Until later. ------------- Last night I spent rougly an hour drafting the predictions I posted to my website below. I had more theories that were based off of the terrorist group not being related to Afghanistan but I reached a point where I was so tired I could barely keep writing, so I stopped. I will now continue, however I will continue with the assumption that the terrorist organization responsible for yesterday's attacks is Afghan. Yesterday I stated that a US strike against Afghanistan would have two goals: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. If the strike were to be along the same magnitude as the previous strikes against Afghanistan I predicted we would see a short offensive consisting almost entirely of cruise missles. I also predicted that this retaliation would fall very short of what Americans would consider ample punishment. Any offensive would undoubtley result in heightened tensions in the Middle East, price hikes at the gas pump and further terrorist attacks. Today I will focus on the possibility that the US will retaliate with a much harsher, colder offensive- which as events unfold is becoming more plausible. A large scale retaliatory attack would have the same goals as the aforementioned attack: Destroy the terrorist leader Usman Bin Laden and cripple Afghanistan's military/terrorist activities. The difference would be the extent to which this objective is carried out and an extended effort to remove the Taliban goverment (which is apparently sympathetic with terroists). My previous prediction may temporarily stun or slow terrorism but it would surely not stop it. In fact it may provide more fuel for the fire. A larger scale attack would involve severley damaging the Afghan goverment and its military as well as areas of finical importance. This may slow terrorism, or it may increase it. I dont know. Unfortunatley, no allied nations border Afghanistan. Due to this we are nearly guarenteed an air war which depends wholely on our ability to defeat the Afghan air defenses. In order to carry out air attacks, coalition aircraft must tresspass through another country's airspace, either Pakistan or Iran. In this case it would most likely be safer to go through Pakistan as we have done before, but Pakistan could become hostile-- although I doubt this will occur. Keep in mind that Pakistan is the only goverment that recognizes the Taliban goverment in control of Afganistan so one could easily deduct they are near allies. To what extent Pakistan would defend its airspace, to what extent it would aid Afghanistan and to what extent the United States would violate it Pakistani airspace is anyones guess. I can imagine the Afghan goverment demanding the Pakistani goverment shoot down American craft. I can also imagine a potential political and possible physical conflict developing over this issue. A ground war is almost totally out of the picture. Again, to get troops into Afghanistan would require penetrating another country's air space. Furthermore, a ground war would be dangerous at best as Afghanistan has already been host to a 10 year war meaning veteran guerillas are in abundance and worse still is the area littered with mines. So in summary, an extended campaign against Afghanistan would surely be air based. It would bring up many issues for Pakistan and their relations with Afghanistan and would surely make the area "hot" as things became hostile. Ground assault is almost completley out of the question. However, other nations siding with Afghanistan could complicate the issue beyond all reason and lead to a greater conflict that could dwarf previous conflicts in the Middle East. I guess we'll see what happens.