the flaw in your argument is copyright. you can't just start up a service delivering content without paying for it.
Netflix bread and butter was DVDs...because they didn't have to pay for them each rental. Just buy a DVD and rent it 100-1000 times at pure profit.
Now, they are charged ridiculous streaming rates, per view. It's why Netflix keeps dropping movies...unless there's a significant viewership ongoing it's not profitable to keep it in stock. (and this is not a stock rotation thing...it costs them basically zero actual dollars to keep movies active on their service...only the copyright fees prevent it).
yeah, I hear these 30% will cancel cable...and I think 100% of those are single.
Even if you could get all the equivalents via streaming...it took my wife a few years to get the hang of Tivo. Tivo! that bastion of stupid simple TV watching. I haven't yet seen a decent interface that can really qualify as luddite friendly and encompass streaming, internet and likely some OTA.
Of course it has those possible problems. What it doesn't have is all the other problems associated with the ICE and associated parts. Water pumps, clutches, timing belts, etc.
The electrical nature is a fair point, but also something modern cars have in abundance themselves these days.
There are competing interests. Longer lifespan of cars...and selling more cars. Every part manufacturer could build a more robust widget for not that significantly more cost. But if that part never needs replacing, that's at least 1 lost sale for that small increase. And because cheaper makers will undercut you, there isn't the incentive for the added cost for longer reliability; except in really niche markets.
What's happening now is what you say...every car made today is significantly better than 40 years ago. And it's costing sales numbers as cars last 10-15 years vs 6-10. When its 20? LOTS harder to be in the auto business.
A flat fee won't increase with usage so savings on rates with efficient appliances will offset that.
Everything you mention is government regulated...so you have a say in it. Get organized and demand changes.
The only downside I see with the lower maintenance schedules of EV's is already showing up in ICEs thanks to longer oil life.
My current 2012 Honda Insight is roughly 10 months between oil changes. My wife's 2011 Kia Soul is averaging 7500k between changes.
That's a long time to never see a mechanic. Wheels get out of alignment, tires lose pressure (though newer sensors are helping this), etc. Cars themselves aren't designed to never be serviced, even if the bulk of service requirements are removed with EVs...other things do need checking from time to time at more frequent intervals than a 1-2 year inspection cycle.
The defense I've heard of the Tesla issues is that while they do exist, the VAST majority of them are software fixes that are downloaded and installed while it's parked in your garage at night.
The carpool exemption is coming to an end. It's a federal rule that ends when the roadway is classified as 'degraded' in traffic flow. I-66 HOV in VA is losing the Hybrid/Electric/Special fuel exemption in 2017.
You don't get to say the name is continuous if the previous incarnation of an Impala was a guzzling rear wheel beast of a car. Sure the current one is a 'normal' car, but it's not an Impala other than name.
The cost isn't in the cars themselves. It's the tooling and manufacturing costs of a factory line spread out over a very small set of cars.
Economies of scale are why Honda, Toyota, Ford, GM, etc can sell as cheap as they can.
That the Bolt will only cost basically the same as it's predecessor the Volt? that's cost coming down significantly as the amortization of the factory costs pays off.
And take into account that a business model of ICE cars involves kick backs and such between dealer and manufacturer. The dealer can absorb a hit on selling price because they'll make it up in maintenance. Electrics have a miniscule maintenance cost in comparison. So less likely you'll see the same price breaks on electrics.
I live in VA outside DC and have hybrid plates that let me get in the HOV solo. That allowance is federal rule that ends when the roadway is classified as 'degraded' in terms of traffic flow. I-66 in VA fully meets that classification:( so as of 2017 any 'Clean Special Fuel', including full electric, vehicles will no longer qualify for HOV exemption.
The thing about electrics though is the gas is a small part of the savings. There just aren't significant parts to break and need replacement; though obviously depending on design.
No ICE, no oil, no maintenance. No transmission, just a straight connection from motor to wheel (linkages as necessary but no gears, etc).
Replacing a battery isn't cheap but it is a very very straightforward thing. Unlike replacing an engine, which your transmission isn't engineered for.
The 'life' of an electric vehicle should realistically be multiple years beyond even the best ICE vehicles...bringing the ownership cost down even farther.
And then take into account that if you can put in a house battery and solar, you could get your 'fuel' entirely for free. You'll never do that with an ICE even with ethanol. This perhaps ties to your 5-10 years prediction which is reasonable. But there are still lots of savings involved beyond the fuel.
The cheapest option of course is a used ICE car for $5-10K;-)
meat likely did play a significant part in our rise as a species but that was well before organized civilization. It absolutely does not have to be that way in any modern society.
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the flaw in your argument is copyright. you can't just start up a service delivering content without paying for it.
Netflix bread and butter was DVDs...because they didn't have to pay for them each rental. Just buy a DVD and rent it 100-1000 times at pure profit.
Now, they are charged ridiculous streaming rates, per view. It's why Netflix keeps dropping movies...unless there's a significant viewership ongoing it's not profitable to keep it in stock. (and this is not a stock rotation thing...it costs them basically zero actual dollars to keep movies active on their service...only the copyright fees prevent it).
yeah, I hear these 30% will cancel cable...and I think 100% of those are single.
Even if you could get all the equivalents via streaming...it took my wife a few years to get the hang of Tivo. Tivo! that bastion of stupid simple TV watching. I haven't yet seen a decent interface that can really qualify as luddite friendly and encompass streaming, internet and likely some OTA.
or finding quite nice free streaming sites
Until they're not. If you can't define what causes consciousness and self awareness, you can't say something won't develop it.
Of course it has those possible problems. What it doesn't have is all the other problems associated with the ICE and associated parts. Water pumps, clutches, timing belts, etc.
The electrical nature is a fair point, but also something modern cars have in abundance themselves these days.
the AC has a point...to a point anyway.
There are competing interests. Longer lifespan of cars...and selling more cars. Every part manufacturer could build a more robust widget for not that significantly more cost. But if that part never needs replacing, that's at least 1 lost sale for that small increase. And because cheaper makers will undercut you, there isn't the incentive for the added cost for longer reliability; except in really niche markets.
What's happening now is what you say...every car made today is significantly better than 40 years ago. And it's costing sales numbers as cars last 10-15 years vs 6-10. When its 20? LOTS harder to be in the auto business.
Ok a single fixed gear. Vastly simpler and far less likelyhood of failure. My point stands.
Lots less things to break...glad you agree
A flat fee won't increase with usage so savings on rates with efficient appliances will offset that. Everything you mention is government regulated...so you have a say in it. Get organized and demand changes.
So GM sabotaged it with a poor business model? Sorta my point
And you think most drivers are that attentive?
The only downside I see with the lower maintenance schedules of EV's is already showing up in ICEs thanks to longer oil life.
My current 2012 Honda Insight is roughly 10 months between oil changes. My wife's 2011 Kia Soul is averaging 7500k between changes.
That's a long time to never see a mechanic. Wheels get out of alignment, tires lose pressure (though newer sensors are helping this), etc. Cars themselves aren't designed to never be serviced, even if the bulk of service requirements are removed with EVs...other things do need checking from time to time at more frequent intervals than a 1-2 year inspection cycle.
and one significant caveat. BMW has very little early life maintenance costs....passed on to the owner. The dealers are just eating the actual costs.
excellent sarcasm! sadly perhaps too excellent...lol
The defense I've heard of the Tesla issues is that while they do exist, the VAST majority of them are software fixes that are downloaded and installed while it's parked in your garage at night.
;-)
Lets see the Escalade do that
The carpool exemption is coming to an end. It's a federal rule that ends when the roadway is classified as 'degraded' in traffic flow. I-66 HOV in VA is losing the Hybrid/Electric/Special fuel exemption in 2017.
You don't get to say the name is continuous if the previous incarnation of an Impala was a guzzling rear wheel beast of a car. Sure the current one is a 'normal' car, but it's not an Impala other than name.
Go look up 'customer satisfaction'. The reason GM canned it is it was making the rest of their dealers look like complete shit.
The cost isn't in the cars themselves. It's the tooling and manufacturing costs of a factory line spread out over a very small set of cars.
Economies of scale are why Honda, Toyota, Ford, GM, etc can sell as cheap as they can.
That the Bolt will only cost basically the same as it's predecessor the Volt? that's cost coming down significantly as the amortization of the factory costs pays off.
And take into account that a business model of ICE cars involves kick backs and such between dealer and manufacturer. The dealer can absorb a hit on selling price because they'll make it up in maintenance. Electrics have a miniscule maintenance cost in comparison. So less likely you'll see the same price breaks on electrics.
regarding the HOV...that may not exist for long.
:( so as of 2017 any 'Clean Special Fuel', including full electric, vehicles will no longer qualify for HOV exemption.
I live in VA outside DC and have hybrid plates that let me get in the HOV solo. That allowance is federal rule that ends when the roadway is classified as 'degraded' in terms of traffic flow. I-66 in VA fully meets that classification
The thing about electrics though is the gas is a small part of the savings. There just aren't significant parts to break and need replacement; though obviously depending on design.
;-)
No ICE, no oil, no maintenance. No transmission, just a straight connection from motor to wheel (linkages as necessary but no gears, etc).
Replacing a battery isn't cheap but it is a very very straightforward thing. Unlike replacing an engine, which your transmission isn't engineered for.
The 'life' of an electric vehicle should realistically be multiple years beyond even the best ICE vehicles...bringing the ownership cost down even farther.
And then take into account that if you can put in a house battery and solar, you could get your 'fuel' entirely for free. You'll never do that with an ICE even with ethanol. This perhaps ties to your 5-10 years prediction which is reasonable. But there are still lots of savings involved beyond the fuel.
The cheapest option of course is a used ICE car for $5-10K
"I don't recall" - an excuse with a long and storied history of exploitation by political strategies
Hillary Clinton - largely derided for her penchant using political calculus before doing *anything*
But somehow her use of this means she has mental deficiencies?
you can't have it both ways...
In order... Worked for Reagan, GWB and Cheney
WUWT has been thoroughly debunked. The guy didn't even graduate college!
meat likely did play a significant part in our rise as a species but that was well before organized civilization. It absolutely does not have to be that way in any modern society.