I can't believe that an article this banal has garnered so much attention from Slashdot readers. The article shows little to no real imagination and reads like a sequence of press releases assembled by clueless non-tech writers.
The message is the medium: Next-generation instant messaging
This is news? IMing is here and has been for years. This shows that the writers are desperately grasping for something to include. ("And in the workplace, IM could replace Web surfing as the goof-off activity of choice." You mean it hasn't already?)
Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks
You can set one up today if you want. Again, this isn't news, at least not to tech-savvy readers.
Peers looking at you: Peer-to-peer networking
Again, this isn't news.
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
Only 512MB of RAM? You can buy that much today for about $100! Failure of imagination, anyone?
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
How is this different than what we have now? CNN seems to envision NO progress in this area at all. Making predictions is always risky, but if I had to make one, I'd guess it won't be long before the cable companies start poaching dialup customers by offering an economy low-cap package (maybe 64kbps downstream, 32kbps up) for $15-$20 a month. They already have the infrastructure in place, and they can offer the convenience of always-on service, which the phone companies refuse to do with DSL even though it is technologically feasible. The cable company might even make more money providing 64/32 connections for $15-$20 a month than they do providing ~768/~256 connections for $50 a month (do the math). Of course, one important prerequisite for this is the commoditization of cable modem hardware.
Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM
That's only double what good graphic cards offer today.
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
This would be nice, but the Achilles' heel of LCD screens is that the picture quality goes down the drain if you view it in any resolution other than the one it is designed for.
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Why not? Maybe in three years, Linux will finally be ready for the masses. Besides, I don't see much further progress for Windows. What more genuine features can MS really add beyond those that are already in XP? For that matter, does XP have any real functionality that Win2K doesn't? As far as I can tell, it just adds a lot of candy-colored crap. As with Office, I think they've reached the point where they really have a finished product (except for bug fixes), only they're unwilling to admit it.
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
Hell, no. The trend is towards sub-$500 PCs, not expensive ones. Stepping up to make another prediction, I would guess that we'll see cheap systems in the $200-$300 price range as soon as a mass-market-suitable version of Linux hits. Currently, with sub-$500 systems, the Windows software is usually the most expensive part of the system. Don't you think OEMs would like to eliminate that expense if they could? Keep in mind, many people buy these cheap boxen just for Email, web surfing, and maybe a little word processing. Give 'em a user-friendly GUI-driven version of Linux that keeps the nasty command line well away, preload Mozilla and StarOffice, and they'll be happy.
All in all, the article is not too impressive. Back to the drawing board, guys.
Slashdot Mirror
I can't believe that an article this banal has garnered so much attention from Slashdot readers. The article shows little to no real imagination and reads like a sequence of press releases assembled by clueless non-tech writers.
The message is the medium: Next-generation instant messaging
This is news? IMing is here and has been for years. This shows that the writers are desperately grasping for something to include. ("And in the workplace, IM could replace Web surfing as the goof-off activity of choice." You mean it hasn't already?)
Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks
You can set one up today if you want. Again, this isn't news, at least not to tech-savvy readers.
Peers looking at you: Peer-to-peer networking
Again, this isn't news.
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
Only 512MB of RAM? You can buy that much today for about $100! Failure of imagination, anyone?
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
How is this different than what we have now? CNN seems to envision NO progress in this area at all. Making predictions is always risky, but if I had to make one, I'd guess it won't be long before the cable companies start poaching dialup customers by offering an economy low-cap package (maybe 64kbps downstream, 32kbps up) for $15-$20 a month. They already have the infrastructure in place, and they can offer the convenience of always-on service, which the phone companies refuse to do with DSL even though it is technologically feasible. The cable company might even make more money providing 64/32 connections for $15-$20 a month than they do providing ~768/~256 connections for $50 a month (do the math). Of course, one important prerequisite for this is the commoditization of cable modem hardware.
Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM
That's only double what good graphic cards offer today.
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
This would be nice, but the Achilles' heel of LCD screens is that the picture quality goes down the drain if you view it in any resolution other than the one it is designed for.
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Why not? Maybe in three years, Linux will finally be ready for the masses. Besides, I don't see much further progress for Windows. What more genuine features can MS really add beyond those that are already in XP? For that matter, does XP have any real functionality that Win2K doesn't? As far as I can tell, it just adds a lot of candy-colored crap. As with Office, I think they've reached the point where they really have a finished product (except for bug fixes), only they're unwilling to admit it.
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
Hell, no. The trend is towards sub-$500 PCs, not expensive ones. Stepping up to make another prediction, I would guess that we'll see cheap systems in the $200-$300 price range as soon as a mass-market-suitable version of Linux hits. Currently, with sub-$500 systems, the Windows software is usually the most expensive part of the system. Don't you think OEMs would like to eliminate that expense if they could? Keep in mind, many people buy these cheap boxen just for Email, web surfing, and maybe a little word processing. Give 'em a user-friendly GUI-driven version of Linux that keeps the nasty command line well away, preload Mozilla and StarOffice, and they'll be happy.
All in all, the article is not too impressive. Back to the drawing board, guys.
- mapperlord