Slashdot Mirror
20 Factors That Will Change PCs In 2002
bstadil writes: "CNN's tech site has posted a list of the 20 most significant factors that will change the PC in 2002. Its not very technical but it would be interesting to get the take on this from the Slashdot community plus what they think needs to be added."
i believe porn is the only real factor in shaping technology
;)
look at the space program
--donabal
Safety First Day?
I think that 1GHz Palmtops, IM, new fuel cells, and that new screen technology could be combined into one super PDA that has been promised since someone uttered convergence.
The Handspring Treo will replace my phone, my PDA, and my Blackberry. Now there's a something I'd shell out hard cash for in 2002.
And still IDE controllers will only support 2 devices.
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I really got my hopes up as I read through it - I thought for once, I would see an article about The Future that didn't say the equivalent of, "This year is really the year when voice recognition will be everywhere." But noooo, they had to say that voice-driven web portals will be one of the Big Things.
What is it about voice recognition that suckers journalists in every time? Nobody seems to get it: voice recognition is here, it's been here for a long time, it's just that the accuracy isn't good enough. You can't walk up to somebody else's installation of ViaVoice and start dictating a letter without missing a few words in each paragraph at the bare minimum.
Now they're talking about voice navigation of web sites? Let me get this straight: half of the sites I visit are so poorly designed that it's hard to tell where to CLICK, let alone what I would say if the site was actually listening to my voice. And if I have to read instructions on how to surf a specific site, you can bet I won't bother reading it - or even clicking.
I didn't bother reading the rest of their Big Futuristic Ideas, but if they're the kind of journalists that include voice recognition, it's not the kind of article I want to read.
What's your damage, Heather?
Heh, I tried a voice control package with my computer and all it would do was Maxamize and Minimize my windows, anything else it just couldnt handle properely.
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This ARTICLE should be modded -1 Flamebait
> Your desktop PC specs in 2004
[..snip..]
> Operating system: Some version of Windows (you
> expected Linux, perhaps?)
Is it just me, or does this sound like a very old technology, or atleast why they seemed to be trying to push it. I'm of course referring to core memory (the little ferrite donuts), whereby you could pull the power and bring the system back up exactly where you were, only difference I can see is price and density.
Hard disks that are faster, not bigger. If I need more space, I'll add more spindles. How about giving me a disk that can push 50 or 100 MB/sec from the platters?
Bring back those monitors-with-built-in-USB-hubs.
Cheap SMP. I'll take my dual 550 over a single 1 GHz any day of the week. How about 8x500 MHz on the desktop, instead of 1x4GHz which is still crippled by 1 CPU hogging app?
Less patronizing Windows UI ("My Documents", "My Computer")
A decent NFS client for Win32.
That's all I can think of for now. I'm not terribly interested about vapor markup languages or 1 GHz palmtops. Give me something I can use.
dd if=/dev/coffee of=/dev/geek
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
Did you notice the last piece of the article about laptops? :)
It says "Operating system: windows"
I never knew that laptops couldn't run linux
No seriously, what ignoramus wrote that article?
If only I could come up with a good sig
Subscription based Software / Services (games, streaming content etc etc)
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Your PC/network will NOT be held hostage/for ransom by convicted softwar gangster felons? Happy holidays/GNU year/millennium from all of US, to all of GNU.
I think one of difficulties of voice recognition is like handwriting recognition; it is *very* different between languages.
European languages (such as English, French, German, Italian, Spanish,...) are rather similar one another. However, the world is far larger. The number of vowels and consonants are very different between languages (European, east Asian, south-east Asian, Arab,...).
--an unbreakable toy is useful for breaking other toys--
Advanced operating systems. Defining technology as a subset of an unresponsive monopoly OS is a waste of time.
Efficient programming tools. If four programmers could write a better Photoshop in two months and distribute it electronically, then things will change.
Human factors driven technology. People will buy more stuff that works easily and makes them happy.
If markup languages such as XML will substitute proprietary binary formats like MS Word and so on, it will be very nice!
Some time back, I read on theregister about replacing PC bus with a bunch of fiber optics.
I believe this can turn on faster data than any physical/electrical bus.
But then every chip will have to have bunch of optical tranceiver/filter built in. As a good effect of this there will be only one physical "wire" capping single fibre carrying say 64 wavelengths, from each chip. Mobo size will be down to 20% of existing...
I don't believe that won't change the world...
Is anyone else sick of the 'civil liberties help terrorists' rant? Similar logic will be used to enforce digital rights management. No more music. No more fair use. Just pay per use, and having your keystrokes recorded and used against you whenever the current administration feels like it
Standard configuration files for applications which are XML based (like .net applications app.exe.config files)
Transactional file systems (SQL Server or Oracle based)
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Was serial ATA and they had it the only quesiton is sure the connection can push 400m/s but.... how fast are these drives going to be? is it going to be the same thing we are seeing with the ide drives? faster interfaces with the same speed drive? Either way i cant wait to see Serial ATA HW.
"All I can tell the "lesser of two evils" folks is that if they keep voting for evil, they'll keep getting evil."-Lp.org
I think that the largest change coming in the next few years, at least for laptop users, will be the increasing prevalence of pervasive, high bandwidth wireless networks based on the IEEE 802.11a-g protocols. I have the pleasure of working for one of the few companies that makes extensive use of these devices (we design them, actually), and I can't imagine working without them. When I go to a meeting, I just plug a card into my laptop and go. In the meeting I can bring up all of the relevant documents and data, check my email and stocks, and, most importantly, read Slashdot.
These technologies will have an even larger impact in academic institutions. At this moment, I know of at least two universities (Carnegie Mellon and, interestingly, Akron University in Ohio) that have essentially omnipresent 802.11b wireless networks. Students with laptops can access the campus network as well as the internet from any point in the university, even the football field.
I think that this will be the area of largest noticeable change because it is not incremental. We expect faster processors, greater storage capacity, faster busses, etc., but the ability to connect to the internet with a broadband connection from almost anywhere, that will be new and therefore more noticeable. However, even though it is novel, it is implemented with mature technologies that have been tried and tested for several years now, at least in the case of 802.11b.
400 gigs and a cloud of dust: AFC hard drives
:) !
well talk about storage problems. I'm having problems filling up my 48gigs.
I GHZ PDA & 10 Ghz PC
Allright what about workstations (maybe they'll start GIGIHertz and Mebihertz too)
LCD Replacement ?
Let them first replace CRT first
Instant messenger
hasn't it arrived here yet ?
Ah XML it's mentioned
this is going to be there "leave my files alone" -- Federal employee
Hyper Threading ?
Talk about "hype"
Good bye PCI ? costlier PC's ?
P2P
well it rocks (my gnutella !)
MRAM
Don't put that speaker near it !
The see-through PC: TFT computers
let me see it before commenting
Distributed Computing That works look at SETI@HOME:)
10 ghz
it's good to dream, but this overdid it
Serial ATA
bye bye ribbon cables
E-Wallet
we'll see more cyber crimes
well they didn't say Microsoft would change
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur
This article of the future is brought to you by the great people of Windows! Try XP today!
bwahahahahha
Whoever wrote this article has a perma-hardon to Windows and the XP version.
I'm suprised no one else has suggested this catch phrase for magic latern yet.
the cant even secure there own OS !
and im going to let them protect my data ?.
ok!
Can't half tell that the non-hardware concepts got some severe business bias, can we? Gees... I don't want "Presence," that's for damned sure. If I want to be found, I make myself easy to find - so why on earth do I need to be tracked to wireless devices, PCs, cell phones, etc? And the concept of having to "pay" to avoid it? Their comparison to caller ID and the blocking of such is bogus - if I'm calling someone, that's one thing, since I initiated the contact, but, but tracking location and usage? Ick.
And that's before the potential terrors of an electronic wallet - not that it's a bad concept, but I don't think it should get a '9' particularly when you consider that some monolith or other will be providing the service, and in a nasty, centralized fashion.
Bah.
Karma: Excellent, but still won't get you laid.
Magic lantern: Major change for all 2002 PCs.
When's it coming? Windows Messenger is here already, and its competitors are sure to respond soon
Gee, thank God Microsoft Invented instant messaging. Since they came up with Hotmail, I guess that means they invented e-mail too huh? (and yes, that's sarcasm - I know MS bought Hotmail out). Well that's what you get from a technical article from cnn
400 gigs and a cloud of dust: AFC hard drives
"640 is enough for anybody"
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What's cool? Even Moore's Law eventually gets trumped by the laws of physics. In a few years, the current method of packing ever greater numbers of transistors onto a chip will hit a wall. But a technology called Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography may break that barrier. Intel estimates that EUVL chips will boast 400 million transistors -- about ten times more than the Pentium 4's 42 million.
Sooooo...
(42 * 2)^n = 400
n = 3.3 lots of 18 months
3.3 * 18 = ~60 months
60 / 12 = 5 years
When's it coming? In three to five years.
Move along people... nothing to see...
If a square is really a rhombus, why aren't all triangles purple?
For the desktop and laptop the writer(s) stop at 512MB RAM. Why? Why not go Gig? It is the future after all.
The OS choices were "unfriendly" at best. <Paraphrase>Some form of Windows (What, you were expecting Linux?)</Paraphrase>
I know I will sound like a madman but I think OSX or a *nix with a good, consistent GUI could easily replace Windows. It has in my house, and we appear to be discussing home computers.
Good article for someone who hasn't read any tech stories in the past 3 years.
This
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy
That's according to the article, but, I have not used a floppy disk in nearly three years. I took all the floppy drives out of my computers at home, and simply use CDs or CDRWs for all my data transfer needs. They are leaps and bounds more reliable (Ask me about reports on magnetic disks "Escaping" in my bookbag), and are generally just more sensible to use (more space for better presentations, etc). Even with driver issues - most, if not all, new machies are CD bootable, so, voila, you can have all your drivers on once nice CD.
I don't understand why any (non tech person) would still use a disk (as opposed to a disc).
Man is born free; and everywhere he is in chains.
Wasn't the article supposed to be the things that will change PCs in 2002? The whole article was about what will change in 2003 and beyond. Their computer specs even said 2004.
Anyway, I should have quit when they mentioned digital nirvana. I can't stand that term.
-jay
Is it just me that noticed that most of these technologies are not expected for three or four years? It seems to me that they were stuck for new things that would actually come in 2002.
Still, I could see some use for a voice-driven interface to a web-mail portal, so my phone can read me my voice mail, and for things like news and stock quotes as well. Of course, these things may already exist, and I've just been too Neanderthal to figure out how to do them from my cell.
You can only drink 30 or 40 glasses of beer a day, no matter how rich you are.
-- Colonel Adolphus Busch
I saw no mention of security improving. I realize that the hardest part of maintaining a secure environment is making the 'user' comply but there HAS to be a better way of protecting people from themselves. Sort of like if a burglar trips and breaks his leg in your house he can sue you.
I mention security because of the "Presence technology" that was discussed. If somebody can get ahold of my network identity and then use that identity to pinpoint my location we could have a whole new wave of identity theft. Not that I have thought it over much but knowing exactly where somebody is opens up a whole new set of opportunites for exploit.
White collar criminal -**- Signing Off.
Back when I was using OS/2 I found the voice navigation on the web to be pretty good. I never really found the dictation that usefull though.
He's been there where M$ want him to be... never knowing he needed it until he got it right in front of him. Him and the great crowds like him is what will give M$ the IM monopoly too, because "everybody else" will be on messenger. Yet another blatant case of M$ extending their monopoly, but I don't suppose that rises any eyebrows here because it happens so often, and nowhere else either because they don't care, in particular the Justice Dep.
Kjella
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
I guess they are kidding: 512 MB DDR RAM is nothing, even by today's standards. I guess people will hit the 4 GB limit on traditional x86 desktops even before the end of 2004.
There's a rule that today's hard disk capacities are RAM capacities in five to seven years. By this estimate, we're going to hit 4 GB during 2003, I suppose.
My hope is that the people who were polled to come up with this list were rating the Microsoft Passport with "Impact meter: 8" as a warning, not a subtle endorsement. The Presence Technology rating of 7 scares me. I don't want people to be able to track my every move, and shouldn't have to pay for the right to be left alone. Isn't this a little to close to the conspiracy theory of the government implanting chips at birth? I have never been one to take that sort of thing seriously, but I want to know I can keep on eating and breathing technology without some hacker knowing my life.
People like you will give in to anything anyone who runs a government agency will say, as long as it protects your precious physical security.
Arapahoe can employ from 1 to 32 lanes; each lane consists of a pair of wires and can shuffle more than 200MB of data per second between the CPU and add-in cards or integrated parts. Arapahoe can also prioritize data, so that, for example, real-time streaming data is processed faster.
Why does this worry me? Why do I think some companies will be able to prioritize their content and others won't? Is this type of thing usually open or is it like most hardware where open source folks have to figure it out the hard way? I'm sure time will tell.
My Karma was at 49, then they switched to words. All that work for nothing!
They're writing about what they see as most important. You need to remember that reporters/journalists/comentators in the print media want desperately to be in the non-print media (radio / tv). And to those in the non-print media, their voice is the most beautiful thing in the world. It's no points for content or relevance and full points for inflection and intonation.
With voice being that important (at least sub-consciously), of course voice response gets played up.
You should try TellMe. It's a free service that does news, stock quotes, sports scores, gets taxis, and more.
What's your damage, Heather?
Again, I disagree with the things said about Laptops:
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD; some form of CompactFlash card
Why on Earth would Laptops come with CompactFlash card readers standard? The article makes no effor to explain this unseemly turn of events, and I can't figure it out. I love CompactFlash, as I am in love with all solid state media, but I really don't see why it would be a standard for removable storage, if SIMPLY because, right now, only once device can interface with it concurrently without the other data being raped.
Secondly:
CPU and RAM: 2- to 3-GHz chip with 256MB of RAM
What are they THINKING??? I am fine with the chip expectations, heck, we might be even farther along than that, but, really, only 256MB of RAM? I don't think so. Whoever wrote this article must be behind the times a bit, as some Laptops can come equipped with that much RAM now. In two years, if engineers and designers haven't found a way to (economically) pack at least a gig of RAM in a laptop, I'll be very suprised. With all the demanding data processing going on (Hey! 3 GHz chip!) there is a _need_ for more of that precious RAM.
Methinks the writer of this article is a bit confused with some of his points. If he is right, in two years, I'll eat my shorts.
Man is born free; and everywhere he is in chains.
Purdue University has implemented a limited wireless network. Any engineering student can register for it and it is available when you are near the engineering mall. The school of technology has also begun to deploy wireless networking but they are still too security conscience to give people pr0n while in class.
As for the rest of campus *ahem* school of liberal arts, they aren't worthy.
I love Peer-to-Peer networking, and it only makes sense for IRC to evolve to instant messaging to evolve to peer-to-peer. What frightens me is the security implications given the convergance of several factors. First, the click and drool crowd will soon have unlimited access to other click and droolers. Second, AOL is going out of its way to try to give users the power to install and use its product despite measures such as blocking ports at the firewall. Third, traditional virus protections currently have been designed for an e-mail architecture - they also do not appear to apply the same scrutiny to quiet back doors or grappling hooks as they do to louder, cruder viruses.
What options does the administrator of a large collection of LANs have when he doesn't have any direct control of the policies of how each LAN sets up their users and workstations. What policies can he apply to the network at its internet perimeter?
Perhaps there is no adequate answer. It may be that the network must remain stupid, end-to-end, and the only security possible is at the desktop. Does this mean that we must require every person who has a computer to attend two weeks of security training every year? The option choice appears to be to suffer back doors, malicious keyboard stroke loggers, and routine virus outbreaks.
People want stuff that they can use everyday. Having a PC with software that uses voice recognition and learn my pattern usage is what I really want. I don't want to have to mess around anymore with DLLs, the registry, LD_LIRBARY_PATHs or .conf files. Applications should learn on how to adapt to my usage and fix themselves when broken. How about an instantaneous boot up people. My g4 with osx wakes up in 5 secs. Boots under 2 mins.
The idea of HyperThreading will create a new breed of applications, both on the client and server side hopefully. The hope of having a reatime application on my desktop is very appealing. No more me waiting for the application to respond to my command!!!
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
;-)
By 2004, we'll definitely be out of this recession and business will be running back to normal... i assume... but would that still really start to drive computer prices up again?
i remember before your typical desktop PC was about $2000+ for a big name computer... a computer with those specs will not necessarily cost $1500-$2000.. you could probably build it yourself for (what i'd assume) about $1000... processor prices, RAM prices, video prices and HD prices are all dropping... some by a huge percentage... and i'm assuming in the future LED monitors are gonna start dropping too... you can already get a 15 inch for what? $300?
only thing on their i see that might actually be worth its price is the DVD rewritable...
plus if you take Windows out you'll be saving yourself another good $100+
"The ones who dont do anything are always the ones who try to pull you down" -- Henry Rollins
Look at the price...
PC's are commodity items of last year. If people can't buy a computer for $500, they won't be paying 4x that in 2004.
OLED? When they start to come out the LCD people are going to get very nervous and they have much more room to play on the price cut front. Result, OLED meet ch 11 and its back to LCD.
IM? Thats too much like peer to peer file sharing for the media folks. I predict M$ will get its self in court with the MPAA people as well as RIAA within a year.
Wireless? Why? The last stuff that was rolled out is a hackers dream. You think large compaines are going to try it again? Other than the cool, look I can do ____ from the other side of the room, whats it worth to most compaines? No one is spending on toys anymore.
XML? TLA for the decade. Its going to be here for a long time. Much more difficult to parse than most text files and this looks like a cool idea to thouse who didn't understand why we have LALR grammar.
Multi-threading made faster. Oh joy... how many programs do I have now that are multi-threaded. Most users are more than happy with the spell check thread running under word and about 90% of applications thread well.
Magnet bubble memory is back... one more time its going to be the best thing since sliced bread. Its cool to be able to put the same 64mbyte card in my camera and my mp3 player but my rio seems to be having problems with its 1st sector as its fash has faded.
Fuel cells will be great if they don't get banned by the local fire marshal. I figure with H2's bad rap (think Hindenburg), all it will take is one accident and this will be baned in some major city. Then others will follow.
Voice portals... One more thing to strangle... too bad I can't put my hands around the things neck.
Smart cards are great. Now its difficult to get a magnetic card writer (who do you know that has one). Now everyone with a PC and the balls to walk into a Tandy shop can get what it take to reprogram some smart cards. The CPUs are too slow to do meaningful crypto and as the cable TV compaines have found out, there are people who can tell you the circut thats sealed in that thin plastic. My bet is smart card fraud will exceed US$500 by Dec of 2002.
G3? is this Gimik 3? DoCoMo will finaly get its act together, get live porn to phones in Japan. G3 will be dead anywhere they can export to or thouse parts of the world that don't have the guts to drop dead tech that isn't going to work.
Digital Cameras with more pixels. Ever try to explain to Mom why the screen can't show as many dots as the camera took and why good 35 mm fill is still 20000 lines of resulution while the overpirced camera has a few thosuand? What I want to know is why can't these $300 cameras have a lense better than a $10 disposable camera?
We need an imbedded AI to determine the data running across our networks is not copyrighted... as well as a slot for quarters so that every time we play an mp3 we can drop in our spare change... I heard Alternative Tentacles could use the money.
I'll add a sig just as soon as I clean up this room...
Have a cookie
Electric "disks" (such as memory device) are always researched in order to replace mechanical disks. The biggest problem is the cost. If this problem would be solved, "disks" (it would not be disk-shaped) would be drastically faster than today's disks.
Have you tried the voice portal - tellme?
Pretty cool stuff IMHO.I think the voice technology may have been around a long time, but it has been making a lot of strides in very recent times...
O=='=++
400 gigs and a cloud of dust: AFC hard drives
:)
:)
Not a bad idea. As the average amount of free space per PC increases, software makers will find a way to utilize it. They always have.
PDAs move to another level: The 1-GHz palmtop
Doubtful. Unlike cell phones, the demographic that buys palmtops aren't made up of teenagers. The people who buy and use palmtops aren't obsessed with making them smaller. They want connectivity first, then speed, then glitz. Besides, the typical uses of a palmtop don't extend to high-end computing. Having 1 Ghz under the hood isn't going to allow you to write your term paper any faster.
Scintillating screens: Organic-light-emitting diodes
Vastly overhyped. The intensity of OLEDs fade with time. When compared next to TFT, they look like shit, perform like shit, and go bad far quicker than TFT. They're also more expensive to produce. It'll be a novelty, but, it wont go anywhere in the end, IMHO.
The message is the medium: Next-generation instant messaging
Uhhh.....Ever heard of IRC? CUSeeMe? This is hardly a new technology. Its the same paradox as the video phone. Everyone thinks that videophones would be totally cool, but no one's willing to have their hair and make-up done in order to answer the phone. Pound for pound, text remains the best medium for large groups of people to share information. What good is a teleconference if only one person at a time can talk? If more than one person starts talking, you might as well be listening to a washing machine.
Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks
I absolutely agree. 802.11 is the beginning of something very big. Community networks, and the death knell for wire-provided technologies like DSL, Cable, 56K modems, etc.
In search of a common language: Markup languages for everything
Here we go again, failing to learn from history. People, its like this -- Programmers dont think alike. Thats what makes them programmers. You'll no sooner see people using the same language for markup as you'll see people coding in Smalltalk. People gravitate towards languages based on their ability to be proficient at it. No matter how good XML is, people will still use HTML becuase it suits them better, or PHP, or Perl, or C, or Assembly, or freakin Smalltalk if they want. Name a single time in history when a programmer was considered proficient in his art, WITHOUT knowing more than one language. Get my drift?
Getting a little hyper: Hyper-threading
Big clue for ya, gang--99.9% of your PC's lifespan is spent waiting for your lazy human ass to tell it what to do. Hyperthreading assumes that Moore's Law will flatline. It wont. What good is greater availability of processing power when you're STILL not addressing the fact that for most of your machine's usable lifespan, it's sitting idle anyway? Its like code optimization research. As time goes on, it becomes more and more irrelevant.
And now, my short list of what WILL take off:
802.11 and its offspring
Corporation-controlled P2P trading
P2P For Programmers--Wide and seamless code-sharing environments that replace segmented environments like SourceForge, Savannah, etc. Why not search for a bunch of good 3D engine s to pick from instead of just MP3s?
GUI optimization. Out with the old, in with the new. The need for a more intuitive interface always wins in the long run, over tradition-based designs. (cough)Scrollball(cough)
User-centric computing instead of application-centric computing.
Self-regulating and self-maintaining applications...Just picture it. Your antivirus software is eventually rendered obsolute because each of your applications, independant of one another, monitors its own structure and is aware of viruses that may attempt to exploit it. Also downloads and applies new updates, code patches, etc. Maintenance-free from a user standpoint.
Government requirements for both OS security and application security. Possibly even a ratings system.
Where will it end!
Cheers,
Bowie J. Poag
How will this be different from 2001. By the way, your email box needs cleaning.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Not being a businessman on the hardware side of the world, there's one question that I've been wanting an answer to for some time. Is there a viable market for PC systems in the less-than-$700 price range? It would seem that educational institutions (especially public school disctricts) and the less-affluent consumer would be the perfect targets for this sort of marketing.
I realize that as technology ages, margins get slimmer and slimmer. What, however, is the floor? It would seem that in a world of "faster, smaller, cheaper," that there would be use for $200-300 machines that are new, out of the box, with warranty service, but are fully functional PCs. Net appliances were interesting, but for the average consumer nothing more than a pretty terminal device. Is it possible in this marketplace for a company to build and sell a cheap Wintel box to the budget consumer and still turn a profit?
It would sure beat having school districts full of old, beat-up, barely functional corporate write-off machines.
At 3 A.M. you can see people's auras; at five you can see their contrails...
We will still have the concept of have's and have not's. What we need is cheap affordable roll outs of the basic infrastructure for all this wonderful technology.
Not everybody will be able to afford the prices, and not everybody will be able to get access to technologies (broadband for example in some locations whether wireless or wired).
----- Whats wrong with this picture? http://www.revoh.org:1234/whatswrong
Yeah, I know I mispelled "obsolete". Its 6 AM here, and i'm still a little goofy from all the egg nog.
:)
Bowie J. Poag
Hmm, I just finished this story in PCWorld during my after Christmas boweling.
It's probably best to combine a few of these to get some really cool techo ideas. For example:
Cross Peer-to-peer networking with Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks. Now every you're at that Nascar BBQ, you could be getting the latest Tim and Willy CD.
Or
Guided by voices: Voice portals combined with May we see some ID, please: The electronic wallet, so retailers have to yell at my butt to get my money.
I really hate Dan Patrick.
Oh, the hard drive manufacturers will love this. A simple one-page document will take gigabytes of hard disk space :-).
Wasn't there a slashdot story in the past year about how a common binary protocol was being replaced with XML, with a corresponding increase of a factor in the hundreds in storage/network requirements?
Does Ashcroft remind anyone else of the smoking
man in X-Files?
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy
If you'd have even only CD-writer, why the heck buying something as slow, low-space and unrealiable as floppy ? Bootable CD's replaced diskettes long time ago, and so does cheap home networking. I haven't used floppy for past 3 years.
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Pretty apocalyptic vision.
People who like this sort of sig will find this the sort of sig they like.
Solid State storage. I'm tired of these Victorian style moving platters and arms. Almost steam punkish. Check out the USB based Piccolo storage keys w/o drivers. They're up to 128MB. Prices should be dropping for GB size stuff, I hope.
Real Firewire hard drives, not these IDE drives with adapter cards on them. Again, it's a serial style cable connection that will feed the beast faster and help neated up the case internals. Serial ATA would do the trick too. Now if only we could connect these cables up to the solid state storage.
I drank what? -- Socrates
Have you tried the voice portal - tellme?
Yeah, I actually suggested that a poster above use it, but that's not voice web navigation. It's just a voice-response system, basically, with their own customized back end. Don't get me wrong, voice recognition is great - I love being able to say my responses to my bank's voice system when I'm on my cell phone, but that doesn't mean it's good for surfing the web yet.
What's your damage, Heather?
This sounds a hell of a lot like magnetic core memory. It's funny that they portray magnetic RAM as something new. Yes, I know the new implementation of this will be very different (sub micron scale etc) but the idea was popular decades ago. Does anyone have a good comparison of the old way and the planned new way?
I think the BIGGEST factor in the next three years will be the unfolding battle between users, Microsoft, and content publishers (music, eBooks, videos, etc.) for control of your PC hardware.
By 2004 we should start to have a clear idea of whether our own hardware still belongs to us, or whether the music industry and Hollywood convince Congress to put DRM-enforcing, watermark-detecting chips into every consumer device.
In 2004 will we still be able to buy general-purpose PC's? Will we be able to buy blank analog media? Will we be able to buy CD-R's that are capable of storing arbitrary binary files on them? When we turn on our PC microphone in a room with a radio playing, will it detect the watermark in the music and turn the microphone off again? Will we be risking serious jail time for even mentioning the possibility of evasion techniques in a forum like this?
Publishers envision (a world in which it is impossible to purchase or own software, books, music, or videos, only to rent them for short periods of time). If DRM even BEGINS to implement these changes, IMHO it will make FAR more difference to our lives than cheap 400 gig disk drives.
And the're plenty of variation on people who were born in the US or UK or AU (or wherever else people natively speak some strain of english) that tone and inflection are significantly difficult to work with.
Expect either of the following:
computers are fast enough, have enough memory and storage to actually understand the butchered english of the worst Teaching Assistant
OR
There's a massive Hitlerian (this should be a word, if it didn't exist, I claim to have invented it) effort to violate all of our civil liberties and force everyone to correctly speak the same way or be shipped off to concentration camps (in New Jersey, probably.)*
*You may laugh, but there's actually schools which teach you not to speak with a southern drawl. Scary.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
I think the only thing that will shape the (home) computer world for the next few years is weather and when cheap broadband is available for the masses.
Cruise TT
"Guided by voices: Voice portals"
Imagine how many websites would pop up if you announced that you wanted to see "mindless crap."
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Today's Top Deals
..but the alias 'pixie dust' sounds more fitting to some sort of street drug rather than a hard drive technology
The economy. This is the number one factor that will affect PCs in 2002. When the economy is shite, research firms are cut back which slows development of new technology. Manufacturers cut back which slows deployment of new technology. Consumers cut back which slows take-up of new technology.
Re: Me getting a new desktop in 2004:
I doubt it -- I have a PII400 I've used for the last 4 years... it served me very well until I got bitten by the Wolfenstein 3D bug over the summer and realized I 'needed' a new box so I built myself a 1.333GHz Athlon which I expect to keep until it blows up. Same with the PII400, it's a linux test box for FanHome which I keep all the dev code on .
I suspect, though, if things are that cheap in the year 2004 I'll go ahead and pick another computer up; I already have 3 -- another couple couldn't hurt (except the electric bill).
Wireless mouse and keyboard? Puh-lease. Those have been around for 5+ years and never, ever caught on (both infrared and RF). I doubt somehow we're going to want to sit on our couch and stare at our monitors. Why waste bluetooth bandwidth on your keyboard/mouse? I think the biggest drawback will be the need to replace batteries and/or plug the keyboard into the wall to recharge them. You'll always be working on a big paper or playing the perfect game of Counter Strike when your keyboard batteries die.
I dislike the idea of everyone using Bluetooth until their protocol isn't redicoulously easy to crack. Weren't there some stories posted a while ago about how easy it was to crack 128bit 802.11b -- with everyone and their mother using bluetooth it would be a cinch for someone to set up a wireless sniffer and read all your keyboard inputs (passwords, etc.).
Re: Laptop
I have a Dell Insprion 8000 that I purchased last May. It was faster than my desktop at the time so it truely was a replacement. It's a PIII850 with 256MB RAM. Runs great for what I use it for (when I'm on the road or otherwise away from my home computer it checks my mail and provides Age of Empires 2 gaming ) and I don't hope to replace it any time soon. It has a 15" LCD already and I couldn't imagine anything larger since as they said it would get HUGE. As soon as they develop those 'roll up' organic LCDs (which they've been talking about for 3 years or more now so I doubt all of a sudden they'll appear) they could have a laptop without any screen and then some sort of 'projector' type screen which you set up. I also have and use 802.11b at home and at work which is great although it is a separate PC card which sometimes I forget. If it was built-in like the Mac Ti Books (which are AWESOME btw) it would be a lot easier... Although one would think that would limit upgradeability since you'd have to rip the thing apart to replace the 802.11b with 802.11a. I don't know why they've limited the RAM to 256MB -- mine has that now with one slot free (for another 256MB DIMM I guess). If we're going to truely have desktop replacement laptops I'd see no reason why to get 512MB RAM (certainly whilst it is pennies on the dollar compared to even a year ago).
Thanks,
--
Matt
As long as I can remember the battery of my notebooks all lastet ONE hour. I think thats a magic number. Obviously users dont need more than one hour and it is not as important as a faster cpu or a brighter display. The same is valid for PDAs or else they wouldnt sell so many ipaqs.
SMP does not require a special application to take advantage of, only the operating system needs to support it (Windows 2000, XP Professional and Linux all do this).
It is useful if you like to do more than one thing at once. If you are like me and open up multiple instances of Netscape or IE, Word, MP3 players, all while burning a CD and hosting a Quake3 server, you would immediately experience the benefit from SMP.
Any multithreaded app can gain the benefit of SMP (not to mention running many simultaneously)
Black holes are where the Matrix raised SIGFPE
It's time to forget floppy disks, 2002 is a good date to stop using this old magnetig faulty devices.
One thing that I have noticed, were the little "weights of importance" for each category. Annoyingly enough, the two genuinely interesting(to me anyway) topics of P2P and distributed computing are apparently just something that would be "nice to have", which to me sounds like utter rubbish. P2P and distributed computing is underutilised and underdeveloped, which is why its benefits don't come through as clearly as, say the eternal fuel cells etc. The author clearly went for the "impress the average CNN.com reader by throwing in some abbreviations"-approach, for which, some people might want to see him put down. I really could not care less. Oh, another thing was that the "applications able to harness this power [of hyper-threading] are nowhere to be seen". Ahem, that is just funny. Can I have a job writing for CNN too?
Get with it, there are clueless people who think M$ is so big and wonderful that every innovation has come from them and Microsoft will be the last company to correct them on any praise. Now if they continued, ".. and in so doing, hopelessly choked the Net with bloat and brought the last broadband provider to their knees." then they might have something. Of course, Microsoft would happily correct them then "that's not bloat, that's a feature!"
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
so your phone can "read" your "voice" mail? The whole idea of voice mail is that it is already a recorded voice. I assume you mean email?
Ha! Unless it will me MsXML. If there is a standard out there AND MS isn't making money from it I am sure they will then create thier own. As if that hasn't happened in the past already...
"If you are on fire you can just stop, drop, and roll. If you fall into Lava you are just dead." - my 5yr old daughter
I was thinking over the holidays about how much I prefer playing games on a dedicated console instead of my PC. PCs have gotten to be necessary evils, especially in recent years. Consider:
1. Upgrading one piece of software or one hardware component (e.g. video card) can easily turn into a cascade of upgrades and a week's worth of evenings. I've gotten afraid to upgrade; I don't want to mess with something that works.
2. The rash of awful virii and worms that get released for whatever system provides the most opportunity (note: If Linux were on 95% of all desktops, there would be just as many Linux viruses; thinking otherwise is like thinking you have developed an unbreakable copy protection scheme). Keeping up with all the security patches and such has been a real headache. And unless I keep up with sites where these things are announced, I'd never know about them.
3. There's still a general unreliability factor associated with PCs. Sometimes my PC doesn't boot completely, and I have to power down and try again. Ever run a game and hear the monitor click indicating a resolution change, and then nothing happens and even if you could kill the game you can't get your video card to reset without a reboot. This is a common occurrence in both Linux and Windows.
4. 99% of the time there's a problem with a game or application, the response is "Do you have the latest video card drivers?" They seem to be released stealthily every few weeks. Who wants to deal with it? And whenever you upgrade there's a high probability of trouble with older software. See #1.
If PCs change in a drastic way, I'd like to see that change in the reliability direction. Yes, yes, yes, Linux is more reliable than Windows 95/98/ME, but Windows 2000 and XP are right up there with Linux. The OS wars dodge the issue. If PCs could be make as reliable as cell phones or PDAs, then I might be interested in them again. Right now I simply view them as mainframes for your home, with all the same system administration headaches.
How about gzipped XML? Or a compression scheme specially designed to compress XML? Really, this isn't that big a problem. In fact, a gzipped XML Word file would probably be smaller than the binary file as the text would be compressed as well. Faster processors make this easier than ever.
They're writing about what they see as most important. You need to remember that reporters/journalists/comentators in the print media want desperately to be in the non-print media (radio / tv).
I was hoping you were going for the fact that print journalists have to write a lot and since they often dictate into personal recorders to get a story and would rather not have to transcribe it later, to their computers, by hand.
A new bug that allows remote access will be found in Windows XP. People will be urged to install the critical update or move to a real OS.
A new bug that allows root access will be found in the latest version of wu-ftpd. People will be urged to patch it or move to a real FTP server.
A new bug that allows root access will be found in the latest version of Sendmail. People will be urged to patch it or move to a real MTA
A kid will be diagnosed with cancer, and will have few days left. People will send him lots of postcards.
Youll receive a warning about a terrible virus that can reformat your hard drive, and neither Microsoft nor the antivirus companies has the ability to fix it.
Motorolla will fill for Chapter 11 because it spent so much money giving cellular phones to everybody who sent lots of e-mails
Amazon will not make profit in 2002
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Roses are #FF0000, Violets are #0000FF, find / -name '*base*' |xargs chown -R us && mv zig greatjustice
you know, it is sort of sad that this journalist is to ignorant of the techmarket to realise that a standard PC and a standard Notbook will never be sold for more than $1200 and $1600 respectivly.
I thought it was sort of funny that he is predicting that PCs will cost the same as the did just before the tech boom. yeah never mind that the Cool new techs that came out in the last 10 years did not increese the cost of the PC or Notebook.
I am the Alpha and the Omega-3
Requiring copy-protection to be built in every single computer peripheral capable of storage is kinda significant, yet merits no mention. Maybe nobody's supposed to know about it?
-A.P.
"Remember when the U.S. had a drug problem, and then we declared a War On Drugs, and now you can't buy drugs anymore?"
no more telephone or e-mail tag.
...and...
What is it? A way to find people on the Net.
One of the great advantages of email is that you can send it when you want, but the person who gets it, also gets it when (s)he wants. It doesn't interrupt you like the telephone.
I see an advantage of this technology slipping away from us...
...and a disx is optional.
That 2-GHz Pentium 4 chip might be a barn burner, but parts of it are always sitting idle, waiting for your software to use them. Intel's Hyper-Threading technology will put those indolent circuits to use, allowing network servers to handle up to 30 percent more users. Desktops may see a similar gain once applications are written to take advantage of it, but the benefits would likely be felt first by compulsive multitaskers who like to play games, download files, and print databases at the same time.
Notice they said Pentium. Methinks its because some other unnamed chip maker allready has much better performance at lower mhz...
I don't know why anyone would not use an ftp server connected to a cable box. proftp works for me, who needs media for anything but archives?
The kind of computer that lacks a network interface generally lacks a CDROM but has a floppy. Hate them as much as I do, I've still got a pile of floppies and several drives. Compared to the single CD writer, the floppy drives in my house are easier to write to when I have to run someplace unfamiliar.
DMCA, Hollings, Palladium. What might have sounded like paranoia is now common sense.
Who with a critical mind watches CNN anymore anyway? Time to graduate to Fox News Channel.
Oh yeah, 200 MB is much faster than 1GB.
check out the new Indiatimes messenger that can connect to five different messenger systems and chat simultaneously with all of them and even invite all of them for a conference. If this technonlgy is as goods as it sounds, why is there no hype about it?. why have i not heard of it before?.
A new archetecture. No, we're just going to keep using the IBM-PC, with its IRQs and other funky crap that was invented in the early 80s and has to be hacked around to get today's computer working at a decent speed. Eventually, someone's going to have to take the plunge and reinvent the computer. Don't hold your breath.
I'm not interested in speeding up the interface. I want faster platters. The interface is already >> faster than the disk.
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
Only a fool discounts voice recognition. I haven't dialed my sprint phone for the past six months, instead I simply tell it who to call and it does.
:-)
I'm sure Douglas Adams would be giggling uncontrollably but that's OK, I think that's pretty neat technology.
Voice recognition has come to high-end cars (remember the "rain stop" commercials?" And it's come to TV remotes. When it's put into microwaves I'll be one of the first to buy it.
There was a time not ten years ago where nobody would dream of doing stuff like this but now we're on the verge of getting rid of the clunky typewriter keyboard and our children may look at our use of these devices as quaintly as we look upon our great great grandparents as they huddled around the radio listening to broadcasts of the lone rangers.
So while you may stop reading future trend articles because they talk about voice recognition I won't read one that doesn't because like it or not, it IS the wave of the future and every year the technology entrenches itself a little more into our lives.
And that is a very good thing IMHO
Linux for sure. I don't understand why we shouldn't be "hoping" for Linux on the desktop by 2004. I can understand that a lot of people don't think that granny could use Linux "out of the box." Well, hey. she can't use windows "out of the box" either. I use blackbox at home and my mother has never figured out how to use anything but she has figured out KDE and Kword and Konq. that is all she needs. Now i won't lie; we need much better microsoft compatibility for office documents, but openoffice doesn't do too bad of a job and by 2004 they will have become staroffice 6. maybe 6.5 or something.
anyway. enough babble. linux is here to stay, we all admit that. i think we can also admit that linux is only getting better, and better faster than MS (even if it is catching up right now.) so, using the much fabled idea of "math" and "logic" I predict that at some point they will pass MS.
"what about drivers?"
hey, when i started using slackware back in 96' there were NO drivers. now i can get drivers from quite a few HW distributers. Not to mention the fact that i prefer the OSS drivers. they are nice. (and ideologically i refused to use closed code so nvidia isn't gonna be doing anything 3d for me) but OEMs figure these things out, though slowly, and soon enough there will be enough driver-power for linux to contend with MS.
What comes first, finding a teacher or becoming a student?
The University of Nebraska - Lincoln (home to some alledgedly hot-shot theiving/conniving football team from what I hear) has a great wireless network covering a good chunk of their campus. The Union (student center) has complete coverage, as does the main library, the large chemistry building, the computer science building (duh) and I'm sure more buildings. You can roam around between these buildings and maintain decent connectivity.
The most significant change to computing in 2002 will be that Microsoft will do an Enron into oblivion. Xbox will prove to be a 3 month Xmas blip, XP sales will be a tenth of projections and a few key bank failures in March will induce panic in M$ investors.
ideally everyone could transfer data via the internet, intranet, etc. When this is not possible aand a sneakernet is the only way to go, floppies still are very useful for transfering small amounts of information (ie. term paper, program, etc.). Until CDRW is cheap (floppy drives are a few dollars and disks are almost free) floppy will still be used. There is no need to waste CDR after CDR unless you absolutely need the storage space.
sig
Well, it wasn't hydrogen that was the problem with the airship. The skin was painted with a highly flammable paint. I believe it was made of a magnesium (!) compound.
If manufacturers just push how non-polluting fuel cells are, they'll be able to guilt people into using them instead of those messy, yucky chemical batteries.
Black holes are where the Matrix raised SIGFPE
Totally right. For this reason, I reckon this coming year is going to be huge for Java, Python and PHP. They are so going to be the next big thing.
I appreciate they all suck in some way, Java because it belongs to M$-wannabe Sun, Python because its hard to get fast code, PHP because er...um..(sheesh, it must suck somehow). And of course, they are not C/C++, Perl, and HTML which are the languages of the Gods.
Nevertheless, alot of people find it easy to become proficient in this new wave of languages, and do some pretty cool stuff. They're designed from the ground up to be pervasive. The development environments are awesome and free to download. As the current Internet was built with C/C++, Perl and HTML, so the future one will be built with Java, Python and PHP.
"Well, put a stake in my heart and drag me into sunlight."
Your desktop PC in 2004: Two years from now, your desktop system will be slimmer and trimmer. Flat-panel screens will replace bulky CRTs, and rewritable-DVD drives and fast graphics subsystems will turn your PC into a movie lover's dream.
And DVD and CD so fscked up with copy protection that you can't use any of it on your PC
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
Try more memory, 512 isn't that uncommon in off the shelf computers today. And as for CPU, how about mentioning 64 bits, like the Hammer, instead of yammering on about that ancient Pentium 4
Hard disk: From 300GB to 400GB on a Serial ATA bus
And no backup technology even close, so you'll have to have RAID standard or risk losing all those pr0n videos. Rather have SCSI, too.
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy
DVD+RW or something else, perferably without some built in copy protection lock, like HP's unit has.
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
If there's ANY left and IF they provide in a reasonably open service format and IF it doesn't cost $100/mo so they're profitable.
Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM
And still able to play NetHack? :)
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
And weighs less than 20 lbs and lasts longer than 30 minutes on battery? I'd be happy with inexpensive 17", thanks.
Ports: USB 2.0 and IEEE 1394
Input devices: Wireless (Bluetooth) mouse and keyboard
What? Now Eye-mouse or Gyromouse?
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Some version of Linux (you expected Windows, perhaps?)
Other: An 802.11b wireless network designed for users with more than one PC
Or a more up to date version of 802.11, but why not network it to more than just PC's, or did the future vision 15 watt bulb start to grow dim?
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
Well, ok, but only because the $900 model has that crappy P4 in it.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Screw that hippie shit, I want OLED Display's right now!!
MSN messenger is barely a functional tool providing only the absolute bare bones of communication functionality.
As for video? Try talking hooks with Microsoft Net Meeting. MNM doesn't work well behind many corporate firewalls (it's useless behind my company's simple little NAT network for talking outside).
Finally, the idea that bundling the tool with the OS is an innovation could only come from a reporter who has had ear plugs over their ears and a paperbag over their head for the last five years. Puhhleeez.
Microsoft needs to be forced, for each bundled application that comes with Windows, to allow competitors to bundle their own products.
I wasn't too impressed with the first part.. stopped reading the article when I read this ditty.
Do not spread "09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0" over the internet, thank you.
Did anyone besides me wonder why most of these technologies that will change the PC in 2002 aren't expected until 2004 or so?
From the article: Your Desktop PC in 2004: Operating System: Some form of Windows (You were expecting Linux, perhaps?)
Stupid smart-off comment. My desktop PC has Linux now. The big change between now and then will be I quit using the Macintosh next to it. I'm tired of pompous folks telling me Linux isn't ready for my desktop. I'll make that decision, folks.
Secession is the right of all sentient beings.
when I got OS/2 Warp 4 from IBM a few years ago it came with a headset in the box and voice recognition software it worked good but unfortunaley when I had OS/2 Warp 4 the fastest computer out was like a P 166 and mine was a P75 and it required at least a Pentium 100 but I tryed it out on my newer computers when I got them and I could use the whole OS like with just my voice.
3. Political Bull-Shit (e.g. Intel and RAMBUS's agreement a while back)
2. Ego
1. Money
"20 Factors that CNN was paid to advertise for in 2002"
-- Dan
Almost all of the items presented are a year or more away.
Give us some stuff that is really going to happen with in the next 53 weeks, and not years away, if it gets here at all.
The only thing that looked relevent is that we can expect MS's IM product to cause further virus/worm activity in the workplace.
... a phone, that has no cord!
... a machine that does the work of 20 math-crunching calculators, in ONE SECOND!
... a decent story from timothy!
The list is missing something: attempts by various *AA orginazitions to add various DRM technologies to all things digital, including computers. A bill like the SSSCA is assinine, but of course the DMCA was too, and look what happened...
Let's get drunk and delete production data!
If four programmers could write a better Photoshop in two months and distribute it electronically, then things will change.
Your comment got me thinking. Gimp is close to Photoshop; it just needs a few things like CYMK. So contribute code, bug reports, or best of all: money. Maybe like the PERL community; people contribute money to hire a developer full time for a year. If the GIMP project had their 4 best developers working full time--could they pull it off?
1000 SlashDot sigs
Your desktop PC specs in 2004
;)
;)
;)
;)
Your desktop PC in 2004: Two years from now, your desktop system will be slimmer and trimmer. Flat-panel screens will replace bulky CRTs, and rewritable-DVD drives and fast graphics subsystems will turn your PC into a movie lover's dream.
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
Only 512MB? DDR is cheap enough now. Why not a couple of gigs? The processor sounds about right, though.
Hard disk: From 300GB to 400GB on a Serial ATA bus
Sounds good to me. I'll definatly be at the high end. My 20GB drive has been full since the first month I bought my current PC...
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy
Honestly, the PC floppy drive just might die eventually. I haven't used mine in quite a while, except to create an extra emergency backup copy of my essays to take to school just in case their network is broken. Still, the floppy is the easiest way to transport small files at the moment...
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
I wonder how much bigger broadband will be in 2004? I'd think the number of people with broadband connections will grow, if the companies providing it can weather the current recession. I do expect all broadband connections (even cable) to have tiered pricing plans based on speed caps, and to be coming down hard on customers who actually dare to use their promised "unlimited" access, though...
Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM
I predict we'll see more than 128MB cards by 2004. 256MB wouldn't suprise me one bit. Also, I am sure all of the decent cards will have nice, speedy GPUs. Yummm...
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
You can have my CRT when you pry it from my cold, dead hands. I won't touch LCD for my desktop until it looks as good (read: bright, crisp, clear, and perfect) as my CRT. It's nowhere close yet. And until I get laser surgery, I won't be running at anything more that 1024x768, and that only on a 19" screen, thank you.
Ports: USB 2.0 and IEEE 1394
This will be nice. No more multiple serial and parallel ports using up IRQs, and lots of speedy connections for video and other high-speed applications.
Input devices: Wireless (Bluetooth) mouse and keyboard
Not for me, thanks. I'd prefer a wired system. I don't need my neighbor or the FBI tapping my keystrokes.
Also, I expect that most, if not all, mice will be optical by this time, and scroll wheels and extra buttons will probably be even more commonplace than they are now.
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Windows for the masses, but some flavor of *nix (probably Linux) for me. With regards to Microsoft OSes, I doubt I will ever go beyond Windows 98 for my primary PC, though I may set up a dual-boot 98/2K box sometime in the future. I am not touching XP and it's descendants will probably be worse...
The article fails to mention other things that will affect PCs and other such devices, like content control, government intrusion and restrictions, nastier spyware than ever, etc. But I guess we don't want to alarm the masses, do we?
DennyK
From what I've heard, voice recognition is fairly good at this point -- the one remaining problem is that human speech isn't all that clear. ("Humorist" would not be a viable career choice otherwise.) If you read a list of random words aloud in your normal speaking voice (not taking care to separate words and talk clearly), chances are most people would mis-identify a quarter to half of them. Read normal sentences aloud, and the error rate of humans who understand the topic is pretty low -- because usually there are many ways the words could be interpreted, but only one way they fit together into a sensible sentence. But there are always some misunderstandings of spoken speech, because now and then there is another coincidental interpretation that seems even better.
Voice recognition systems are actually pretty good at identifying the words. Where they fail is at deciding which of the various possible interpretations of a sentence make sense -- since machine understanding of a typed-in English sentence is still hit or mostly miss, the machine is not going to get enough help interpreting ambiguous sounds from the context of the sentence...
So you aren't going to be able to dictate to your Palm Pilot and get a business letter that you can mail without proofreading and revision. But a human stenographer can't do that either, unless she understands quite a lot about the subject and has experience with how _you_ want the letters to come out. But there was a time when most businessmen thought it worthwhile to pay the wages of a stenographer even though they had to revise every letter and send it back to be re-typed. It beat banging on the old typewriter yourself... I think the best voice recognition now is roughly equivalent to a stupid stenographer; it should do grammar better and spell perfectly, but get the wrong word more often. It's not for me (imagine trying to dictate C code!), but if you aren't willing to lug around a full-size keyboard, or haven't become good at typing, it is quite likely that it will be faster to dictate to a voice machine and then do the needed corrections than to type a document into a palmtop.
As for why print journalists fixate on voice recognition, that's obvious. There was a time when they'd take notes on a little pad, then race to a typewriter -- now that they have laptops, they can add back strain from lugging around the 'puter and many sets of batteries to the older occupational diseases of writers cramp and carpal tunnel. And they still have to run around finding someplace to set the laptop. So say "voice recognition" and they're all dreaming about being able to just find a quiet corner and talk into a palmtop. And let the editors do the re-write, they will anyhow!
In search of a common language: Markup languages for everything Here we go again, failing to learn from history. People, its like this -- Programmers dont think alike. Thats what makes them programmers. You'll no sooner see people using the same language for markup as you'll see people coding in Smalltalk. People gravitate towards languages based on their ability to be proficient at it. No matter how good XML is, people will still use HTML becuase it suits them better, or PHP, or Perl, or C, or Assembly, or freakin Smalltalk if they want. Name a single time in history when a programmer was considered proficient in his art, WITHOUT knowing more than one language. Get my drift?
XML is all about data exchange and messaging. No, it's doubtful that it will replace HTML but it is does appear to be becoming the standard for business to business transactions. XML has found it's purpose not in web pages but in unified data formats and standards... and will be used along side dozens of other programming tools.
The tools we use still suck, we programmers are stuck in the 1950's, while the rest of the world gets all of the toys we built with this stuff, only with extreme tedium. We're trappist monks, trapped by the bounds of syntax. The time for change is near.
--Mike-- (a.k.a. one who has seen a hint of the light)
>>PDAs move to another level: The 1-GHz palmtop
>Doubtful.
Two Words: Voice Recongition
a PDA with a 500+ Mhz CPU will be able to support Voice Recongition for issuing command or typing simple notes. Corp Execs will eat this stuff up!
However, PDA's need to be equipped with a lot more of memory (Atleast 128 DRAM + 64 MB Flash + 1 GB Microdrive). The real question is, is there power supply lite enough to power all this stuff?
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
Why such a crappy display? I run 1600x1200 already, and can't even look at the full frame of the pictures from my digital camera any more. I want at least 4000*3000 pixels if I'm going to be forced to look at an LCD. It had better be driving digitally, as well, just like my laptop.
If the OS can't handle it, I'll just open the source, and fix it myself.
--Mike--I haven't seen anyone mention it, but I see 3G as the broadband solution of choice in the next few years. Why not a 3G wireless modem (not really a modem in the technical sense, yes, but that's what they'll call it)?
Politics, Culture, Food?
I agree, compressed XML (my favorite is bzip) can save a huge factor in space requirements.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised if certain big names in the OS business start coming out with "proprietary" XML extensions, just as they make postscript printer drivers that are printer-brand-and-model-specific.
I'm surprised some marketing bimbo in a $700 miniskirt hasn't already proposed the abolition of over-the-air radio and tv broadcasting to be replaced by some kind of subscription and/or micropayment per-use scheme with a name like a disease.
The hot new trend in the LAST 6 months, which hasn't been around long enough to be analyzed in depth or commented on much at a cultural level is simply gouging the consumer.
There are a lot of recent examples of schemes like these being initially launched. Some, like m$ passport and diddled CD manufacturing being covered here within the last month, but it's much too soon to declare any of them even profitable, let alone the kind of major alteration to the way we as a society use technology hinted at in the CNN story that prompted the posting.
I did hear broadcast this morning on Bloomberg and CNN though that retailers are complaining about a 26% drop in retail sales for this Christmas holiday under last year. There are a lot of additional contributing factors for this, but it still makes it abundantly obvious these new gimmicks aren't immediately selling like hotcakes.
Maybe whole sectors of the investor community, business school graduates, and the institutions that produce them need to be ground into catfood. They have a way of coming up with one dumb idea after another without contributing anything of value..
Remember "The New Economy" and "Profits don't matter"? Most of us were alive in 1999, but the purpose of all that free crap was motivated by the desire to build a large base of users which would lead to user-dependency. They half succeeded.
A great deal is said, here and elsewhere, about the unsophistication of the "average user", whaterer that is, and beyond talk, a great deal of new funding, in addition to the $1 Trillion USD already lost is now being put into cybergouge, but the reaction of the marketplace based on statistics we have available so far is interesting and gives rise to optimism.
From X-drive, to subscription Napster, to NetZero, to BlueMountain the ratio of free registrations to paying subscribers in aggregate is 0.03%. That's one third of one percent which is insufficient to sustain publically traded and financed operations on the scale these "goldmines of the future" have been structured to. Interestingly, the statistic bears an interesting proximity to the impression-to-purchase ratio of most banner ads, so get set for further rounds of layoff notices and spectacular bankruptcy announcements: There's gonna be a sequel to that movie coming soon to an economy near you.
Consumers don't need an advanced degree in economics to know when they're being %&$*ed up the keister. It's already entirely too easy for the "average user" to find himself with too much month left at the end of the money, and these dudes are making impressively astute decisions on what they really need and what they can do without paying for - much more insightful than the thinking of cybergouge executives and their backers.
So with that my fellow penguins, best wishes for a happy and successful 2002. Chances are it isn't gonna suck anywhere near as bad as some of the commentary of this posting implies.
give me a
It's surprising to see 400GB hard drives having more impact than handhelds. Don't people go to hell for picking hard drives over handhelds?
Digital Cameras with more pixels. Ever try to explain to Mom why the screen can't show as many dots as the camera took and why good 35 mm fill is still 20000 lines of resulution while the overpirced camera has a few thosuand? What I want to know is why can't these $300 cameras have a lense better than a $10 disposable camera?
...
.. customers wont be happy with a new nifty camera and a single focal length lens. They want a wide range of focal lenths so they can take pictures of their cat hacking a hairball, or a nice wide group shot of their ugly relatives all on the same camera...
The difference between that 10 dollar camera and the 300 dollar one is the cheap zoom lens they throw in on cameras these days.
It is cheap and easy to make a slow, less contrasty zoom lens.. but the quality will be crappy and bla..
it is also cheap, if not cheaper, to make 50mm f/1.8 lens , which has a fixed focal length. Though the zoom might cost the same or even more than the 50mm , the 50mm will blow the hell out of the cheap zoom lens any day
Also, if you want a zoom lens on par with the quality of 50mm , it very well could cost up to a grand (ie. nikon 80-200mm f2.8 lens, $800 , tamron 80-200 f3.5 - 5.6 probably $300 , but real crappy quality and slow )
but heres the paradox
Those cheap disposable cameras have a built in single focal lenght lens that will deffinately get better picture quality, and be cheaper to produce...
I lost my concept of community when my community lost all concept of me.
The weeks/months of uptime you get on AAAs is one of the big advantages of the Palm platform, and a major factor in their dominance.
I hate to tell you, but they don't sell that many iPaqs. Palm has gained back the market share they lost early last year.
Jon Acheson
All opinions expressed herein are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled.
What about real-time raytracing and perfect physics? I don't know a single 3D gamer who wouldn't love to have such power available to him.
Sure, Intel's Itanium is out but no one is taking that seriously in the desktop market. Way too pricey for most users. AMD's 64 bit chip code named Hammer will come out in the first quarter of 2002. This is when the rest of us will see 64 bit computing.
anyone else find it ridiculous that both the 400 gig drives and 100 times faster processors are dismissed as "too powerful for people to need"
bring on the obscenely powerful computers for obscenely low prices, please! I do digital audio stuff and I would LOVE a 400 gig drive and a processor that's equivelent to a 50 gighertz G4, with appropriately fast system/memory buses...
it'd be nice to manipulate a large number of channels of stereo 24 bit 96khz audio doing massive fft effects on them, all in real time, from a laptop.
Just one comment on SMP:
Even if no applications can use it to speed up the processing of the application in the foreground, SMP is very nice to make the whole system more responsive. If one program hogs all of the power of one CPU there is still a second (third/fourth...) that will run the other programs on the machine.
I used to have an SMP machine with Windows NT for software development and then switched to one with a three times faster single processor. It didn't really feel faster due to my mouse moving and the windows scrolling less smooth.
And that is even true when playing games. I started off playing Total Annihilation under Win95 on a fast box and later, when DirectX on WinNT cought up, switched to a SMP box with WinNT4. The difference was noticable.
Here's another thing journalists (and a lot of other people) don't get: more RAM is the best way to get more out of your computer! For their "specs of your PC in 2004" they list...
;-) is lower power consumption, less heat output, etc.
Desktop: 512MB RAM
Laptop: 256MB RAM
Huh? I have more than that in both today. My desktop has 1GB and my laptop 384MB.
On the other hand they see a 4-5GHz CPU in the desktop and a 2-3GHz CPU in the laptop. Who needs that? 1-2GHz is very fast... the main reason even todays 1GHz PCs often "feel slow" to their users is that they don't have enough RAM! I hear it all the time... "my PC is slow" (brand new PC with 1GHz CPU)... turns out they only have 128MB RAM and every time they switch between their Word processor and their browser half of the other gets paged out. Duh.
I doubt that the default laptop will go much beyond a 1GHz CPU in the next few years anyway... what we need much more now in laptops (other than RAM
And I doubt desktops will go much beyond 2GHz soon... servers, sure, some high-end workstations, sure, but a typical home/office PC? Who needs the speed? With what we have today you can process a live video stream while silumtaneously playing Quake at 60fps (with help from dedicated video/3D hardware) which are some of the most computing resource intensive apps anyone has come up with yet.
:j
PHP because er...um..(sheesh, it must suck somehow).
Right you are, and indeed it does. Not Unicode based, so it's too hard to create global Web apps. (Not impossible, just not worth the extra effort.) Most serious organizations are waking up to the fact that if it's not fundamentally Unicode-based, it's not acceptable as a standard mission-critical platform.
(And yes, of course there are exceptions, depending on other constraints and available resources. Plain ol' C comes to mind, when you are willing to pay for complete customization on every axis. That doesn't invalidate the general rule.)
"Those who have never entered upon scientific pursuits know not a tithe of the poetry by which they are surrounded."
Currently, I don't have a floppy drive at all in my PC. I was thinking exactly like you are when I built it without a floppy. But, I need to go get one anyway.
:-)
;-)
I didn't think I'd need a floppy because today's standard is CD. If I need to send someone files on physical media, I've got a CD-RW for that. If I get new software or new hardware with driver media, it'll be on CD. Great.
But just a few years ago things were still being put on floppies. And that's my problem. See, I went to install the latest drivers for a used P II system I bought for a family member, and they were only available as disk images. Okay, there are tools which can decompress them, like WinImage. That's fine for getting the drivers out of the image. Annoying that it just isn't zipped like normal people would do, but workable.
However, software disk images are another matter if they're in some weird self-floppy-writing format, which does sometimes happen. I have a lot of older software, mostly games, ("abandonware" sites mostly--call it piracy if you want, but I think we should preserve our gaming heritage, and if something is no longer retailed at all, I find no harm in archiving and occasionally playing it) on disk images in a dozen different formats. It's a big pain in the ass to deal with when you have to get around writing them to floppy, whereas you could write them on a floppy in no time if you actually had a floppy drive.
That problem is increased since I'm using VMWare and a trial copy of VirtualPC for Windows. I wanted to run a free (legally, too) copy of DR-DOS I got, but it's in a disk image format, and as far as I can tell--I'm not *completely* familiar with the programs, so maybe one or both have this function and I haven't found it--both VMWare and VirtualPC need to install an OS from media (unless you buy one of their retail "packs") and you can't just copy the DOS files from your HD into the virtual PC's HD.
So, it would be much easier if I just broke down and bought a floppy drive. Which I did, actually, but being a geek I thought it would be cool to get one of those old combo 3 1/2 inch and 5 1/14 inch drives that a couple of companies used to make, if I had to hook up a floppy. I bought one on eBay since they don't make 'em any more--but it arrived DOA, dammit. That of course is just a side rant.
But anyway, I'll probably end up buying a shiny new 3 1/2 inch floppy drive just to deal with disk images. Dammit.
As a side note, I use and love Daemon Tools. Whenever I buy a new game with CD-check protection and can't find a simple way or crack to disable it, or if a new game I buy has CDA sound tracks, I can just make an image of the CD and a batch file to mount it in Daemon Tools before running the game. Very handy--no CD swapping, ever, which will be especially useful when I get around to building an ultimate arcade PC and an arcade cab around it. Daemon Tools is basically a free implementation of a Virtual CD program. I just wish there were a Virtual Floppy program that worked the same way, so that software and driver disk images could be easily and seamlessly written to a virtual floppy drive and then just as easily copied back onto the HD and zipped up in a standard archive if desired. That would be PERFECT for what I currently need a floppy for, and for all such "legacy" uses of floppy drives.
It's times like this when I wish I could code anything other than HTML.
Chasing Amy
(We all chase Amy...)
"The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws"-Tacitus
Yes, I can definitely see why you'd rather not use a keyboard to express yourself.
Not very lone if they're plural, are they? ;)
This sig is xenon coated, and will glow red when in the presence of aliens
hmmm....RAM that maintains data after the power is turned off. Sounds like an EXCELLANT oppertunity for virus makers...
Our campus implemented it poorly. They implemented limited access to "try it", and now the same limited access is acting like a reason not to implement it further. There are a lot of holes, and you have to be in specific places to use it (which nobody seems to know where they are), so you can get disconnected by wandering to the wrong place. Also, the different colleges within our University are beginning to develop their own networks (because they want a piece of it too), so there are different SIDs with ZERO communication with the Help Desk. Students will come to out Help Desk looking for assistance, and we can just tell them "Try finding a professor in that college. They might know." Sad. Plus, the University will ONLY support Cisco cards, which are far too expensive for the average student. If you're looking for the wrong way to implement wireless, try UWEC.
Computers are transforming into collections of separate networked modules.
Most computer components are already available as networked modules: storage, audio, input, printing. Even displays with graphics processors are available as tablets and webpads. This trend will continue. Protocols and software will evolve to support it.
Soon, processors will find their way to the market as a separate networked module, probably coupled with memory. When you add one of these modules to your network, distributed processing will let you use it in addition to all the others you already have.
You and your family (and maybe even your neighbors) will share processing and storage resources as you use your own separate portable terminals.
Your most important data will be encrypted on a storage module that looks more like a safe, set in concrete in the foundation of your house.
------DO NOT WRITE BELOW THIS LINE------
By then, we'll have the ability to connect a number of keyboard/mouse/monitor/removable-drive combinations to a single computer, and OSes will have enough stability and extra power to handle it. A family will buy a single fast computer and 2-3 heads for it, and then they'll never have to argue over it, because each head is really cheap. In fact, they'll probably get extra heads to have in different rooms, just because it's convenient.
Once flat-panel displays are as cheap as CRTs, there's no reason to sit at a desk to use the computer; have something laptop-shaped, but attached to a machine in the closet. Everything that is expensive to make small isn't; everything that's small by default fits on your lap.
Then people will want to ditch the cords, and they'll be out of Bluetooth range, so the heads will turn into 802.11 network appliances; LAN appliances, not internet appliances. You'll buy a computer, and it won't have a monitor or anything; those will be in the appliance. The whole thing will only cost a bit more than having a single unit, and it will be much more convenient.
Eventually, of course, you'll be able to do things like use your home computer from a friend's house; since everything has been designed for having an 802.11 network between the user and the CPU, having the internet in between isn't much different.
So, in 2004, my "desktop" computer won't be on a desk, and I won't be sitting at a desk to use it.
is it just me or is CNN starting to sound as sensational as Wired?
All those hardware/software things are great. But the one thing they didn't mention is the education of the masses. As more and more people become more and more familiar with computers and how to use them, these technological innovations will become more important to more people, thereby fueling the need for this Top 20 list...
jmo
This space for rent
OS X does this NOW. All of those .plist configuration files are xml configuration files. Apple also provides a nice editor for them if you install DevTools.
The problems with dictation are two-fold. The technology is way too fragile. It is too easily thrown off by changes in ambient noise environment or the speaker's level of stress/emotion. That will slowly improve. More processing power and storage will become available for more robust pattern matching. But the second problem is probably more the point: people can't dictate. Dictation is a learned skill and few people are willing to take the time to learn or to be that disciplined. With a keyboard and a word processing program, you can noodle around and generally do what we do on pencil and paper until it's right. Dictation isn't easy.
The other side of speech works well. We use it in offices, in factories and on trade show floors all the time. Browsing the Web and filling in forms designed for data entry by voice works . VoiceSurfer by Conversay works. The Web works as well by voice as it does by mouse. It would work better if Web developers did some simple things ... but they don't know what to do and nobody's pushing the isues. Conversay's software offers easy JavaScript scripting or effortless voice enablement. If you don't mind wearing a headset, you may find it is as easy and almost as fast as the mouse.
The real message is that people don't talk to their computers. Most don't wear headsets or have high-quality directional microphones attached to their computers. And virtually everyone feels strange talking to a machine. I have a headset on mine that I use for voice over IP, I still don't run with VoiceSurfer on all the time :-( ... proof of BrentO's position at a powerful level. We'll see if that strangeness fades ... my prediction is that it's 2005 and beyond.
This article should have been called:
"We've found a way to fit more advertising in less space and get people to pay attention at the same time."
> And to those in the non-print media, their voice is the most beautiful thing in the world. It's no points for content or relevance and full points for inflection and intonation.
"Your post is"
"..."
"Plus two, inflection"
"..."
"Plus one, intonation"
"..."
"Total, plus three."
"..."
"You have"
"..."
"one"
"..."
"more posts."
"..."
"Say 'next' to continue."
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Most technology companies have had a terrible record over the last 20 years when it comes to designing technology for easy, efficient usage. I seriously doubt that in three years things will be any different, because that requires changing the attitudes of the people who design technology and changing the way they think about their designs. It's a lot easier for technology to change and evolve than it is for people to change and evolve.
it looks like these projections are for 2002 and beyond. some of them aren't even due until 2006 or later according to this story.
also, the release of some of the technology they're talking about is dependant on where you live in the world. for instance, in the US,the petrol corps have such a lobbying stranglehold on our govt. that we'll probably be among the last in the world to see any form of usable fuel cell technology.
i think a lot of this is optimistic at best and utter drivel at worst.
I am a PHP newbie (only a about a month and a half) but so far, I haven't found how PHP sucks. I went into the project expecting to run into walls and disappointment, but PHP keeps pulling its weight. Go figure.
As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
I can think of a good app for voice: a car music player (or anything else in a car that would require a huge menu). You say "Play Powerslave" (and it only need to know your voice, since it's your car) and a fraction of a second later, Aces_High.ogg is blasting out the speakers.
As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
A mid range Sony Vaio can be had today with those specs for $1500, including the docking station. Admittedly the processor is 1GHz rather than 2, but batter life is the principle reason for that. And most people who have the choice today go for smaller machines that are lighter than huge brick like desktop replacements.
What I think will happen is that the laptop phenomena will start to merge with the PDA line. Most people don't actually need or want a laptop, they want a PDA that can read email and do powerpoint presentations.
Another thing to think about is that with 802.11b and the like it is not necessarily the case that you need a powerfull machine in your hand. We may well start to see the portable display tablet becomming detached from the desktop processor.
Looking for an Information Security student project suggestion?
Try http://dotcrimeManifesto.com/
I find this fascinating. On the one hand, we have great programming languages, tools, and libraries whose only disadvantage compared to C, C++, Java, and C# is that they are maybe 10x slower. We have the processors to run them faster than we could run assembly a few years ago. Yet, whenever these new processors come out, everybody goes back, wastes lots of time tuning their C/C++ code and then complains that all those cycles are useless. There are still endless debates even in 2001 whether Gnome or KDE is faster. The Linux kernel developers don't even want to move to C++
Folks, those cycles are very useful. Not for some obscure technology that you know nothing about. They are very useful to let you program faster by worrying less about fine-tuning your software and for automating lots of tasks. They are very useful also for making programs safer and more robust automatically by eliminating common bugs like buffer overflows. And they are very useful for component-based software construction, which requires some form of runtime reflection--much better done automatically.
Drexel University (in Philadelphia) has had a wireless campus for 2 or 3 years now. It was initially restricted to a few buildings, but now it's everywhere, and as far as I know anyone can use it.
They should have stated it as follows: With all your eggs in one basket...
Programming code needs markup capability, not just comments. Markup provides the ability to specify addition LAYERS (Plural!) of information about something. You should be able to add as many of these layers as you like, they should be able to overlap as you like. The compiler output should just be another layer on top of your source code, if you like.
--Mike--
The future PC will be a lot more different than just "a smaller, faster, lighter, more power-efficient PC with more memory" but it will be a lot more significant than that. we're moving sooo fast.... hopefully soon good riddance to the floppy, and soon after that good riddance to microsoft.
2003: Ebay rejects ads for analog speakers as piracy devices.
I like OSX and would really like to see an Intel port since its based on Unix. Then I could give up on the four days I've been trying to do a clean install on WinXP on a machine with a new proc, new hd, new graphics card and new sound. All with XP drivers. XP's problem? IRQ Conflicts. Or memory paging. OR Just a Random Error that causes a blue screen.
One more try and then its Redhat 7.2 for that machine.
Personally, I'm hoping for a holodeck-like experience. "Computer, give me Victorian-era England. And don't skimp out on the bustiers".
Outside of games, there aren't many applications that really need much more compute power. The concept of needing a 1GHz CPU in a handheld to work on a spreadsheet, as suggested in the article, is idiotic.
We need bandwidth more than CPU power right now. TV needs about 3Mb/s, and home Internet connections aren't delivering that yet. (And it terrifies the content providers if everybody has enough bandwidth and storage to pump video around, let alone HDTV or theatrical film bandwidths.)
20 Factors That Will Change PCs In 2002? Maybe they mean 2004? Only about 5 of them will be in 2002...
How the IP shakes out seems disconected to hardware advances. On an off-topic note, I want a cellphone that switches to "handheld/portable mode, and back, whenever I move in or out of range of my landline so I can save peak$$. I know I can have calls forwarded. I also want a cellphone that has the look/feel/sound of the old Star Trek communicator.
"Big clue for ya, gang--99.9% of your PC's lifespan is spent waiting for your lazy human ass to tell it what to do. Hyperthreading assumes that Moore's Law will flatline. It wont. What good is greater availability of processing power when you're STILL not addressing the fact that for most of your machine's usable lifespan, it's sitting idle anyway? Its like code optimization research. As time goes on, it becomes more and more irrelevant."
Software apps will also become more complex & require the power available to them. Java is still noticably slower than C. Some apps need all the speed they can get.
Code optimization will always be important, just like Assembly Language will always be important, barring some radical change to mainstream computing architecture. Code optimization, like many other technologies, will become more automated, faster & easier to conduct.
...but your .sig is hateful, and a lie. So none of
my precious mod points will be wasted on you.
re: your comments on wireless mice and keyboards...
To be honest... I couldn't give a damn about a wireless keyboard as I have no real use for one, but... Wireless mice on the other hand are great to use. I agree with your comments about battery life though.
I reckon it would kick ass if you could get an optical wireless mouse with a cradle type adapter that recharges the mouse when you're not using it. I suppose the cradle could act as the RF/IR transmitter/receiver too... Anyone know if something like this exists?
hummer
All other factors being equal (such as the quality of the lens and the focusing mechanism), how many million pixels does it take before we can say that digital images capture more detail than 35 mm film? Is there a definitive answer on this?
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
and in the year 2004, people will still continue to use Outlook... despite the fact that every 2 months, yet another email worm will spread using people address books. Hurumph!!
XHMTL 1.0, which is the current W3C recommendation to replace HTML 4.0, IS XML!! The next version of HTML will be XHTML 2.x probably, there will be no HTML 5.x, so people that want to take advantage of any new features introduced in the next version will be using XML for their pages. They will just be using a specific DTD known as XHTML.
I've found that XML is one of the most misunderstood technologies out there, people seem to think that it's a drastic departure from what they know and nobody seems to understand where it's true power lies. XML is not going to replace PHP, Perl, Python, C, Java, or anything else. But you can use XML with all of those technologies and it's really a great way to store and describe large amounts of data if you don't need RDBMS or if you don't want to lock yourself into something.
Sun uses XML DTD's (or maybe Schemas, I dunno) for the StarOffice 6 file formats (maybe this was more an innovation of OpenOffice), which lets people create documents in StarOffice with absolutely no worry that they won't be able to retrieve their data 100 years from now.
XML was created exactly because "programmers dont think alike".
------
Where are the slash-groupies? I distinctly remember being promised slash-groupies!
I personally want to hear somebody accurately dictate a perl script into a voice recognition interface.
I am thinking that by the end of it they'll be spitting out broken teeth and blood.
instead of using 3.4inch platters, new harddisks are starting to come out in 2.5inch or less diam platters in 3.5inch housings. Smaller DIAM = less seek times, less heat coz of surface area and faster xfer rates.
So 3.5 inch disks should have 2 x 2inch platters side by side instead of one big ass 3.4inch one. This is the future.
which will fuel the need for about 20% of the mentionned stuff on that site :)
Factor: 10
coolness: priceless.
--- Metamoderating abusive downgraders since my 300th post.
Does postscript define things like paper selection, double-side, four-up, and other advanced printer features?
/etc/printcap. It's such a joy.
It doesn't?
Then why would those of us who run OSes that the hardware vendors actually support with drivers bemoan the fact that there are specialized drivers that take advangage of the printer's features that we paid for?
Stick to your antique Unix. Keep feeding raw postscript to your printer through lpd. And above all else, have fun with
What's the catch? The AOL and Microsoft IM clients still can't communicate with each other.
...
Apparently, they haven't heard of gabber and all its flavors.
And in the workplace, IM could replace Web surfing as the goof-off activity of choice.
It already has!!!
Presence technology? M$'s Passport? There goes our privacy!
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not.
How about making DSL accessible and affordable in remote places: islands, rural areas
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Actually, YES I WAS! It would appear that XP is starting to get half way close to what Linux can offer.
[...]
Use my userscript to add story images to Slashdot. There's no going back.
And what the hell is that all about: "Next time you call your bank or your travel agent, that pleasant-sounding woman who answers the phone may be a Web server." <seductive voice>"Hi, I'm Apache, what can I do for you."</seductive voice>
Lars T.
To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck
The reason that wireless keyboards are being pushed so much is so that the gov't can "listen in" on what you're typing, thus getting passwords, PGP keys, etc., without risking the user finding out about some keytrap software installed on their machine, especially now that makers of anti-virus software are stating that they will not ignore the FBI's keytrap software (and will alert the user to it's presence if it is detected, just like any other virus).
</conspiracy>
Or maybe I'm just really paranoid ;-)
I doubt Linux will have acheived world domination by 2004, though. As was mentioned, KDE and GNOME aren't quite newbie-friendly enough yet (though I think KDE is 98% there and GNOME is in the 75-80% range). I used to use KDE, and though I prefer GNOME, I do admit KDE is more ready for newbie users. However, I'm using Debian 2.2, so I don't have the latest version of GNOME (no Nautilus, etc.), when 3.0 goes stable, we'll see how far it's come.
Geesh...why does everybody have to bother mentioning stupid interfaces like KDE/GNOME? Sure, they are great widget sets, but my god...those horrible window managers! Ditch that and install Enlightenment or AfterStep or WindowMaker! Why must everybody try to lure newbies into using those god-awful KDE/GNOME WMs?
Zodiac Survey
that Microsoft's relentless expansion of Office "features" and condescending dictation of how everyone organizes files and uses productivity software is _reducing_ usability of the products.
With Office95 I could set each application to save its files in a specific directory by default. So I had separate directories for Word, Excel, etc., and I'd use Save-As to place files in Client folders as needed. Lately with Office2000 I have to use Save-As for every frickin file plus having to click up and down the directory tree to reach my file structure. Its painful and it wastes time - all simply because Microsoft _enforces_ their "easy" (dumbed-down, lowest-common-denominator) approach to saving files. It insults me to use it. What I want is software that's easier for me to use in the way I want to work. And that is Not M$ Office. I do hope Star Office 6 will be more usable in this sense and wish Sun would finish it up and finally release it real soon.
The CNN article's apparent deference (or pandering) to Microsoft's plans seems rather strange, seeing as how CNN is part of that other Great Satan - AOL/Time-Warner - which is positioning resources to take on Microsoft wherever it can in a battle for consumer control of media and transactions.
They want connectivity first, then speed, then glitz. Besides, the typical uses of a palmtop don't extend to high-end computing. Having 1 Ghz under the hood isn't going to allow you to write your term paper any faster.
I'd argue that palmtops are not really designed for writing term papers (I can understand writing small notes, but a whole term paper on a palmtop would be take to long). A laptop is probably the better way to do that. But you are right that connectivity is more important then speed, but having more speed will help with several things, video conferencing from a palmtop device would be real nice, rather then sending simple messages. Being able to watch news from the web rather then read it, is also interesting.
Vastly overhyped. The intensity of OLEDs fade with time. When compared next to TFT, they look like shit, perform like shit, and go bad far quicker than TFT. They're also more expensive to produce. It'll be a novelty, but, it wont go anywhere in the end, IMHO.
I'm a little confused here, I thought TFT (Thin-Film Transisters) were something to be used with LCDs and OLEDs? Maybe you can provide actual information about it?
What good is a teleconference if only one person at a time can talk? If more than one person starts talking, you might as well be listening to a washing machine.
I agree with that there is no point in seeing who you are conferencing with, but having visuals (charts, slides etc) in a conference is very important in expressing ideas, as well as being able to point at things with in the visuals, that is linking the speech with things in a visual is also important. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words. But dont get me wrong I agree that this is not something worth mentioning.
Here we go again, failing to learn from history. People, its like this -- Programmers dont think alike.
You hit the nail on the head. I think technology in the future will make it easier for people to work together not through forcing them to work in a uniform environment, but allowing them to work the way they have to, to get things done, and then translating it so that others may understand. More of an advancement in compiler like technology, bidirectional translation technology, that will allow you to translate to diffrent languages/codes.
Big clue for ya, gang--99.9% of your PC's lifespan is spent waiting for your lazy human ass to tell it what to do.
I dont think you get it. That 0.1% could be multiple tasks that are require to be done in a short period of time. In the real world humans also have to deal with maniac humans who like to get things done in short periods of time in order to yank out as much of the cost of doing things as much possible. Its irritating but its something we have to live with.
Hyperthreading assumes that Moore's Law will flatline.
Not exactly, hyperthreading can be said to be a part of Moore's Law, not against it. If certain technologies flat line, doesnt mean Moore's Law has flat lined, it simply means we get performance by other means.
I would hope the future would bring a P2P network that pays you to distribute files and information and do computing tasks, which would include the P2P for programmers.
For GUI optimization, I think the GUIs we have currently are the product of our input devices. That is the mouse and keyboard, effect the graphical user interface. Have more interesting input devices can allow for new intuitive interfaces. Like 3d motion tracking will definetly allow for more interesting GUIs, for one thing I am dying for more desktop space, and my gut feeling is I would like to have an HMD with motion tracking and a motion tracked stylus/mouse like device, and be able to have a 360 degree desktop.
disclaimer : My views do not represent those of every one else in slashdot.
>> The number of vowels and consonants are very different between languages
Eerrr, no. People the world over use the same vowels and consonants, just combined in different ways. Every language leaves a few of them out. Some combine them with tone to change the meaning.
But the human vocal apparatus is really only comfortible making about 100 different noises.
Linuguistics 101 is a great course, I highly recomend it to any before they comment on voice recognition software.
Larger harddrives.
Moving from 80GB to 400GB is not that big a deal, but it does let us use our desktop computer to store and trade tv shows. That's going to be fun. Anyone have the first Tick episode?
Although, this probably means that they can make a 5 GB micro drive, which would be really cool if it was hidden inside my iPac without making the outside bigger.
The 1-GHz palmtop
I would be much happier with larger memories in these devices. Not much that I want to do on a palmtop that needs 1 GHz of processing power. Although it would be fun to have the device do all the moon shot calculations and plot all the moon orbits for all the apollo missions in just a few seconds.
Organic-light-emitting diodes
Years away.
Next-generation instant messaging
Other countries have this infrastruct developed years ahead of where we are.
802.11 networks
Slow, insecure. old news.
Markup languages for everything
This is old news. XML won, but didn't change much.
Hyper-threading
Funny, I already do this on the apps I write for Linux.
3G input/output bus
I'll believe it when I see it. Years away.
Peer-to-peer networking
Lots of scalability issues to fix first.
clear computers
Cosmetic change only, don't see it changing anything.
Magnetic RAM
The old shall become new again. This is just mainframe core memory, revamped. Should be great to have 1 GB of core memory instead of flashram in my iPac though. Especially since this memory is likely to outlast flashram by years. Good for cameras and music players too.
Presence technology
Already works with IM.
Fuel cells
Gee, do you think the battery companies want you to only spend $2.00 on a gallon of alcohol that will run every current battery powered device you have for a week? No, they want you to shell out $5.00 for their batteries which will only last a couple of days at most. We will be lucky to see this technology in our lifetimes.
Distributed computing
We already have this in the Linux world, Beowolf and mosix are 2 of the most popular, but there are more.
Voice portals
Years away.
The electronic wallet
I think I'll keep on paying with cash or card for a while yet. Call me old fashion.
The new cell-phone network
Be nice to have wireless networking based on 2Mbit per second networking, that was city wide... Beats the hell out of 802.11b.
Extreme ultraviolet lithography
Years away.
Multiplicity of megapixels
Old news.
Serial ATA storage
It will have to beat firewire.
Your desktop PC specs in 2004
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
You would be better off with an AMD 2GHz processor and 2GB of DDR RAM. And I will be running at least 2 processors on my desktop from here on out.
Hard disk: From 300GB to 400GB on a Serial ATA bus
An external firewire 2 drive is faster and more compatible.
Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy
Floppy is Dead.
OS on my computer will be Linux.
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
I won't pay more than $600 for a new computer.
Your notebook PC specs in 2004
CPU and RAM: 2- to 3-GHz chip with 256MB of RAM
Better off with a battery conserving 1.5 GHz processor with 1GB of DDR RAM.
Hard disk: 60GB to 80GB with Serial ATA interface
Naw, these drives will be 200GB, at least.
No need for removable drives or even CDROM drives, I want a small laptop computer. If I want to watch videos on the laptop, I'll stream it from another machine, wirelessly.
OS, again, Linux will be my choice, although I'll have to probably pay for windows anyway when I buy a laptop. Damn that Windows tax.
Price: $2,000 and up
I'll not pay more than $1200 for a laptop.
The article title states "20 Factors That Will Change PCs In 2002 " yet a lot of the items mentioned will not be seen in the PC world until 2004 and beyond.
/-\ |-|
One sentence: "Suck my dick". What you can do with your Palm hehe...
Erm...no?
As a journalist-to-be, I can tell you that my interest is not in TV or radio. I'm a writer, not a parrot. Where voice recognition really would be helpful to me is in dictating passages and editing them. I'm rather surprised at your suggestion that print media journalists "want desperately to be in the non-print media". What basis do you have for this odd assumption?
A word can paint a thousand pictures
Still having to check each bag, for your sweet & sour sauces and fries orders at McD's
// TRiPTMiND \\
Intel Arapahoe? What about AMD's Hypertransport which should be here much sooner?
Big Brother Inside: The SSSCA and Digital Rights Management
What is it? A new mandate being legislated as we speak, pushed by the record companies and movie companies (disclosure: CNN is owned by AOL Time Warner, which is also a record company and movie company, which is why they didn't say anything about this) to keep users from copying copyrighted material without "permission."
What's cool? Depends on whether you work for a movie company or record company--if you don't, there's very little "cool" about this. The Security Systems Standards and Certification Act (to be introdued by Senator Hollings, R-SC) will mandate that all digital devices contain copyright protection systems to keep people from copying "copyrighted material." What this means is unknown as of yet, but it's for certain that the days of Napster and Gnutella wll be long gone if this comes to pass...and perhaps the days of Linux as well, since it would be impossible to put secure copyright protections into an open-source operating system. The bill also mandates penalties for tampering with digital rights management systems, and for connecting an unprotected digital device to any computer network. If you want to enjoy music or movies on your computer, the movie and record companies will tell you "It's my way or the highway"--and you'll probably have to pay. And pay. And pay. And pay. And pay.
When's it coming? The SSSCA will likely be on Congressional committee agendas early next year. Expect its sponsors (mostly Disney) to try and get it rammed through Congress as fast as they can, with as little review as they can. Then, the "industry" has a certain amount of time to come up with the copyright protection standards that will be mandatory from then on...and if they can't come to an agreement, the government will do it for them.
What's the catch? This will basically be The End Of The World As We Know It for the computer industry. The only beneficiaries of a law like this will be the record, movie, and other "intellectual property" companies, who will expect to see more cash flowing into their already-bloated coffers. Meanwhile, a lot of people are going to get harassed for the crime of using computer systems of their choice...and the average consumer, as always, will get screwed. Repeatedly. Forever. On the other hand, it may still be possible to stop this from happening...write your Congressional representatives and tell them why this law would be a Bad Thing for the consumer, for the computer industry, and for the American economy as a whole. Of course, bear in mind that the record companies and movie companies have more money than you do, and so they're likely to get listened to first.
Impact Meter: 10...no, make that 10,000,000.
This is just a poor and feeble first draft...anybody else out there, feel free to rewrite it.
Eric
Be who you are...and be it in style!
That's enough to change how you interact with a PDA - instead of a screen interface with handwriting input, you can do an earphone/mike interface, voice input, voice output for many things, though possibly a screen as well. Obviously you'd want to integrate it with a cellphone and voicemail. E-Books are probably way too annoying when read through most common text-to-speech systems, but perhaps the new AT&T Labs Natural Voice stuff is good enough.
Some of that can probably be done with much lower-end speech-recognition, and possibly with speaker-independent. The Sprint voice-dialed cellphone is a cute trick - the memory and speech recognition parts can live in the server side of the system, but since the system knows it's *your* cellphone, it only needs to look up your few dozen phone numbers, rather than having to recognize across their entire subscriber bases' set of "Mom", "Home", "Work" voice patterns.
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
Hear, hear. For personal use (since I'm not a gamer, and don't use my PC as a substitute for a television :-), I don't need multi-GHz processing, especially if I'm not wasting it on patronizing bloatware user interfaces, and I don't need a Beowulf cluster in my garage. For business applications, there are obvious applications like encryption for web servers (lots of SSL sessions, though custom accelerator boards (or less-custom DSPs) are often worthwhile ways to speed that up) or database searching - but that one parallelizes well, and the real performance problems are usually in how you handle the disk drives. The old Teradata Database Engines had up to 432 processors, each with their own disk drives, and a funky fast bus connecting them - the master processors would split up database queries into slices that each little CPU could go search on and then collect the results back together. You could build similar things today using PCs and either chains of fast Ethernet - Beowulf is designed for more general-purpose applications, but much of the philosophy is reusable, and the techniques for splitting up queries can probably be adapted easily enough. Inktomi/b> and similar highly parallelizable indexing and search engines are another point in the loosely-coupled-processing space, though obviously you're not going to run a massive web-crawler in your garage behind a little DSL connection - the processing needs to balance the network bandwidth.
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
Very interesting idea; it raises some obvious questions (e.g., how to code the "modification tags" in a way that doesn't totally break portability). I suspect it would work best at the upper levels (e.g. if you could write "sort X" or "sort [use quick-sort] X" or "sort [if count X lt 20 use bubble-sort else use quick-sort] X", etc.) But then of course the question would be "can't you already do that?"
-- MarkusQ
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Yes, you could get a $1500 desktop machine if you want to spend $1000 on a really good flat-screen display - and if this were still the Dot-Com-Boom of 1997 instead of the Dot-Com-Bust of 2001 you'd do it in an instant, but this year, you'd only spend that because it's really nice, not because it's actually enhancing your ability to do work.
The real must-have component for your desk-top machine - it's the $25 plastic slide-out disk drive drawer, so you can upgrade that 20GB drive to an 80GB drive without disassembling the box. (And of course the CD-R, because 650MB CD-Rs are cheaper than floppies these days.)
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
I can't believe that an article this banal has garnered so much attention from Slashdot readers. The article shows little to no real imagination and reads like a sequence of press releases assembled by clueless non-tech writers.
The message is the medium: Next-generation instant messaging
This is news? IMing is here and has been for years. This shows that the writers are desperately grasping for something to include. ("And in the workplace, IM could replace Web surfing as the goof-off activity of choice." You mean it hasn't already?)
Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks
You can set one up today if you want. Again, this isn't news, at least not to tech-savvy readers.
Peers looking at you: Peer-to-peer networking
Again, this isn't news.
CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a 600-MHz system bus
Only 512MB of RAM? You can buy that much today for about $100! Failure of imagination, anyone?
Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem if not
How is this different than what we have now? CNN seems to envision NO progress in this area at all. Making predictions is always risky, but if I had to make one, I'd guess it won't be long before the cable companies start poaching dialup customers by offering an economy low-cap package (maybe 64kbps downstream, 32kbps up) for $15-$20 a month. They already have the infrastructure in place, and they can offer the convenience of always-on service, which the phone companies refuse to do with DSL even though it is technologically feasible. The cable company might even make more money providing 64/32 connections for $15-$20 a month than they do providing ~768/~256 connections for $50 a month (do the math). Of course, one important prerequisite for this is the commoditization of cable modem hardware.
Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM
That's only double what good graphic cards offer today.
Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200 resolution
This would be nice, but the Achilles' heel of LCD screens is that the picture quality goes down the drain if you view it in any resolution other than the one it is designed for.
Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)
Why not? Maybe in three years, Linux will finally be ready for the masses. Besides, I don't see much further progress for Windows. What more genuine features can MS really add beyond those that are already in XP? For that matter, does XP have any real functionality that Win2K doesn't? As far as I can tell, it just adds a lot of candy-colored crap. As with Office, I think they've reached the point where they really have a finished product (except for bug fixes), only they're unwilling to admit it.
Price: $1,500 to $2,000
Hell, no. The trend is towards sub-$500 PCs, not expensive ones. Stepping up to make another prediction, I would guess that we'll see cheap systems in the $200-$300 price range as soon as a mass-market-suitable version of Linux hits. Currently, with sub-$500 systems, the Windows software is usually the most expensive part of the system. Don't you think OEMs would like to eliminate that expense if they could? Keep in mind, many people buy these cheap boxen just for Email, web surfing, and maybe a little word processing. Give 'em a user-friendly GUI-driven version of Linux that keeps the nasty command line well away, preload Mozilla and StarOffice, and they'll be happy.
All in all, the article is not too impressive. Back to the drawing board, guys.
- mapperlord
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Some of us have real jobs man...
XHMTL 1.0, which is the current W3C recommendation to replace HTML 4.0, IS XML!! The next version of HTML will be XHTML 2.x probably, there will be no HTML 5.x, so people that want to take advantage of any new features introduced in the next version will be using XML for their pages. They will just be using a specific DTD known as XHTML.
1) There will be no HTML 5 because the W3C wrestled control of the HTML standard back from Netscape and Microsoft and is placing new work in appropriate places (DOM, XML, etc). Proper HTML has been mostly feature complete since 3.0. The only real major addition I can think of is tables, which have a valid use when they are not being butchered by 99.5% of web sites (W3C included). HTML 4 added some SGML-derived descriptive tags that everyone should use but doesn't.
2) The next recommendation is XHTML 1.1, which is basically XHTML 1.0 with the "flavors" removed (only "strict" now) and some hooks for other W3C technologies.
3) "The XHTML is XML" thing doesn't mean much. HTML is XML is SGML. They're all based on a tag format defined in a 1986 standard. HTML 4 needed very minor hacks to make it XML compatible. In fact, the only one I can think of is the new tag completion rule. Besides ending single tag elements, this doesn't affect things much since tag minimization has been depreciated for years.
I've found that XML is one of the most misunderstood technologies out there, people seem to think that it's a drastic departure from what they know and nobody seems to understand where it's true power lies. XML is not going to replace PHP, Perl, Python, C, Java, or anything else.
On the contrary, I don't think it is misunderstood. By "us" at least. I can't tell you how many times I've laughed at these absurd concoctions for XML: TCP protocols, file systems, database backends...it just goes on. XML is a tag language. It does things tag languages do. XML is a minor extension of SGML to escape the 1986-ness of the format.
XML isn't the end-all future, but these publications make it seem that way, and when it's not that it's Java.
One of my friends had a wireless mouse 'back in the day' maybe 3, 4 years ago... What struck me the most about it was:
a) the size (it was much larger)
and
b) the weight (much heavier)
I attribute that to the RF transmitter (or whatever it used, but it certainly wasn't a fun experience. I wouldn't mind a cordless mouse (one of my mice's cord likes to get stuck behind the monitor and I have to yank it out) if they could keep the same size and weight of my intellimouse optical.
Thanks,
--
Matt
Definitely... I find it amazing how accustomed we've all gotten to asking someone to repeat what they just said ("Huh?" "Put the yellow cup next to WHAT?" "Come again?") - yet we have no patience for a computer/machine not grasping 99.99% of what we say the first time its spoken.
The problem with voice recognition systems is we expect them to work better than we do!
Personally, I still want to know why everyone's so interested in every digital camera on the market getting multi-mondo-megapixels of resolution in the first place??
.BMP backgrounds out of pictures of my friends and pets, and have an easy way to email photos around. For these purposes, resolutions above 1024x768 are usually more hinderance than help! Your average Windows desktop runs no more than 1024x768 resolution, and you don't want more than either 640x480 or even 320x200 for a small .JPG to upload to eBay or email to a relative.
If I'm really concerned about high resolution photos, then I'm probably going to shell out the $'s for a high-end camera (digital or not). If I go the digital route, probably would be best to do it with a digital camera back for a traditional 35mm camera.
If I'm like 90% of the digital camera buyers, I just want to shoot quick pictures of my stuff to post on eBay, make cool Windows
Most people using these higher-resolution cameras end up shrinking their photos in Photoshop or Paint Shop Pro, so they're a manageable size to upload.
Disclaimer: I work for Nuance Communications a speech recognition software company
.wav where I don't have a clue what the user is saying and the engine is righ on! And with good design you'd be amazed at what voice portals can accomplish.
Speech rec works. Talk to Sears, TellMe and Schwab to name a few
This article is not adressing John Doe controlling his PDA with speech commands(although we're getting there). It's talking of Voice browsing the way you browse the web.
We get very high recognition acuracy (90-99% range). Heck, sometimes I listen to
The trick with voice applications is to design excellent dialogs. Basically, the speech rec will be good if you know what the user is going to say. That means asking the right questions to get the right answers. Then write the grammars that matches. System that are speaker-independant need to have a grammar specified. Basically a list of possible answers the user can give. This network of possibilety can be small or huge (think of diallers with 100k names)
Text-To-Speech also has a bad reputation. We all remember what Dr. SBAITSO used to sound like but beleive me, when the next generation of TTS engine will speak to you you probably won't notice. I heard samples from a few engines and they are unbeleivable.
Take a look at the Voice Web Server. It is available for free (free registration required) on extranet.nuance.com and it works on any Intel PC (yeah, I know...) with a SB16 compatible soundcard
Then come discuss with other users on our discussion forums. I'll be there to answer your questions
Mathieu
There's a CIO magazine article with their own "What's coming up list" that includes voice recognition with a twist.
They see voice recognition starting to really make an appearance in large call centres rather than for the fellow in the street with his (or her) home PC.
It makes sense to me. That's where (a) there is a significant possible $$ impact and (b) people are already using a device designed for voice input.
Biography of Fritz Hollings
Senator Hollings is a Democrat. it is this kind of moral blindness that cripples Slashdotters when it comes to stopping legislation. I want to grab you all and shake you, the Democrats are just as bad!!!
At some point somebody will have to figure out a new, revolutionary way to back up all that hard disk space. I doubt it will be next year.
A IT/aml2/index.html for fun). As our computers get smaller, we can use the space for the massive backup systems we'll need.
... of course you can then buy disk-to-disk systems, etc.
I think it's funny that you can fill a whole room with your backup equipment (see http://www.adic.com/US/English/Products/Hardware/
I just moved from a 7-tape DLT library to an LTO solution, that can handle up to 6 drives and 72 tapes in a space about 6 times the size of the DLT library. The LTO tapes hold about 2.5 times as much, and are more digital, less analog, and I suppose there's room for another doubling of capacity in there. But it won't go twice as fast, and the other problem is it can take a day to back up a day's work
The thing is, these are all gemotric advances and we're going to need something exponential soon.
MY notebook PC specs in 2001
My notebook PC in 2001: By 2001 a notebook will be some users' only PC. These mobile monsters will have the power to replace desktops, but will stay slender enough to tuck into a briefcase. Screens won't get much larger than 15 inches, though -- any bigger and you would lose portability -- and battery life will improve, but not as much as most users would like.
CPU and RAM: 550- to 666-MHz G4 chip with 1GB of RAM
Hard disk: 20GB to 48GB with Ultra ATA/66 interface
Removable storage: Slot Loading CD-RW/DVD
Internet connection: 10/100/1000 Base-T Ethernet; 56K V.90 modem (backup) (Home - DSL; Work - T3)
Wireless technologies: 802.11b for connecting to a LAN
Display: 15.2-inch LCD
Dimensions: 5.4 pounds and barely 1 inch thick
Battery: lithium ion unit good for 5 hours of life per charge
Operating system: MacOS X.1
Price: $2,200 and up ($2000 for DVD-only still available retail)
----
Just to note... I don't actually have one of these. I'd sort of like one, as a fantasy, except I really don't want to have the burden. I have a G4 (Dual 533) at home and a G4 (Dual 800) at work, as well as a Dual Athalon 900 at home (on a 2.4 kernel) and a few 600 to dual 800 range PIII boxen, (2.4 kernel, Win2000), an 8-way Compaq behemoth (8x1GHz Xeon), and a Sun E3000 at work... if I had a cool portable, I'd never escape the damned silicon monsters. A good friend does have one (666MHz/1GB/40MB/DVDw/extern CD-RW) that he got for $2.4k+tax (ADC Premier, the lucky B*st*rd) plus the cost of the memory upgrade (he had one 512MB built in) and while the 550 would be cheaper, the faster bus certainly seemed to give his book more power. Now, I know the costs are lower for PCs, but they don't seem to be much lower for equivalent portables. It isn't like you can (as I do with my boxen) order all the parts through the company's wholesale supplier and assemble your own laptop. And to get 1" thick and 15" screen and optical drive (not in an external bay) is next to impossible. So... when I see nothing compelling about this two-three year off laptop they describe, perhaps there's something there for the PC world. But I still much doubt the 3lb 15" screen DVD-R thing. The 3lb thing will only happen when LCDs get replaced by something lighter (Organics? Would take work) and optical drives get thinner. And Li-ion batteries can't get that light, and power something like that...
-- Still waiting for the Nike endorsement
Run through the office, yelling "FORMAT C:", "Yes!". - me
Try writing a real application in PHP, Java or Perl. As in word processor, spreadsheet, photo editing, video editing, etc.
Of course, if your application doesn't grok a particular XML DTD thrown at it, then you're still screwed as far as data exchange goes...
I used to have a Logitech wireless mouse and keyboard. Worked Ok for awhile. Then it froze. So I replaced the batteries just to be safe. It kept on freezing randomly to the point that I tossed the in' hardware out the window and hooked up a nice and reliable wired mouse and keyboard. Never looked back - too bad I wasted the $$ on the wireless fad junk.
Well.. that's not what PHP is for. I'm looking at it strictly as a web-thingie.
As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
3) "The XHTML is XML" thing doesn't mean much. HTML is XML is SGML. They're all based on a tag format defined in a 1986 standard. HTML 4 needed very minor hacks to make it XML compatible. In fact, the only one I can think of is the new tag completion rule.
Technically HTML is just SGML, XHTML is XML is accurate. XML is NOT SGML, while they are both tag based languages, XML was designed to be at the same level on the tree as SGML is, they are equivalent.
Besides ending single tag elements, this doesn't affect things much since tag minimization has been depreciated for years.
Just because something is deprecated doesn't mean that it still isn't extensively used. Look at the <FONT> tag, it's been deprecated since CSS came out with HTML 4 but it's still widely in use. But the point I was making was that in the future HTML will conform to XML standards and simply be a subset of XML instead of a direct subset of SGML. I was refuting the contention that XML was not going to replace HTML.
On the contrary, I don't think it is misunderstood. By "us" at least. I can't tell you how many times I've laughed at these absurd concoctions for XML: TCP protocols, file systems, database backends...it just goes on. XML is a tag language. It does things tag languages do. XML is a minor extension of SGML to escape the 1986-ness of the format.
XML isn't the end-all future, but these publications make it seem that way, and when it's not that it's Java.
I'm not arguing that it is, all I was pointing out was that: A. XML is not a programming language meant to replace C or PHP or anything else. B. XML, through XHTML, is probably going to replace HTML eventually.
Here is a great document by the W3C that goes over XML and how it relates to SGML, HTML, etc:
http://www.w3c.org/XML/1999/XML-in-10-points.
------
Where are the slash-groupies? I distinctly remember being promised slash-groupies!
IMO, Voice "Web" and "Portals" will never take off the way the article says. Portals have already been proven to suck in the normal web.
..., press 9 for the other thing", you have, "Please say what you want, or help for a list of choices."
Where voice shines (and where Tellme is going) is in replacing the crappy IVR (touch tone) phone systems in which we are all so familiar. Imagine, instead of "Press 1 for this, press 2 for that,
I've been designing voice systems like that for 2 years, and let me tell you that, although "dictation" recognition has a long way to go, recognition with a fixed set of a few phrases already works very well, even over the phone. Well designed grammars with even 100 or 200 possible phrases get very good recognition, no training required.
It's just a voice-response system, basically, with their own customized back end.
It is not designed to be anything more. It seems to me that everyone hopes that we'll all be able to surf the web with our voice, but the truth is it is really not practical. If you really want it, go buy a screen reader like JAWS (which is designed for the blind). VUI (Voice User Interface) and web site/GUI design are incapable of converging completely, simply because web sites are designed to use things like color and layout to ease navigation, and VUI's have to use a very linear interface. Technologies like SALT hope to combine the two, but it will never magically convert the web to voice without having some kind of backend conversion.
I can't be bothered to look up the reference, but at some point I read about some folks who tried to make up a binary protocol to be as compact as possible, and they couldn't make it more efficient than a gzipped text protocol. Even if you're within 10%, don't bother, just gzip it and move on.
How do you move something?
Why, you just drag and drop.
It won't let me.
Oh, that'e because you're moving a "special" folder. Get properties on it and change its location from there.
Stupid! Stupid!
± 29 dB
Use HTML Tidy.
#define X(x,y) x##y
Peter Cordes ; e-mail: X(peter@cordes ,
If I'm like 90% of the digital camera buyers, I just want to shoot quick pictures of my stuff to post on eBay, make cool Windows .BMP backgrounds out of pictures of my friends and pets, and have an easy way to email photos around. For these purposes, resolutions above 1024x768 are usually more hinderance than help! Your average Windows desktop runs no more than 1024x768 resolution, and you don't want more than either 640x480 or even 320x200 for a small .JPG to upload to eBay or email to a relative.
You forgot one thing, a good chunk of the 90% like to also print out their pictures. With excellent Epson photo printers out there for cheap money, your average user really does need more than 1024x764.
But not much more. Rarely does anyone print out something larger than an 8"x10", which means the current crop of 3 megapixel cameras are about all you need. But even this is iffy, its tough to get a critically good 8"x10" picture out of a camera (35mm or digital) without using a tripod. And that's something the 90% generall doesn't do.
The battle over how many pixels do you really need will go on and on I'm sure.
I'd say we'll see larger sensors in the future rather than more pixels (though I'm sure we'll see more pixels as well since that seems to sell). Some of the good SLR's have sensors as big, or almost as big as a 35mm negative. I suspect this'll become more commonplace.
- ordinarius
Faster hardware? Who cares...
I'm still waiting for some decent software.
Dave.
Reminds me of a Futurama episode in which the Professor says (forgive me if the quote is imprecise), "my internet browser heard us saying the word 'Fry' and downloaded a movie for us. Incidentally, it opened up my calendar to Friday and ordered me some french fries."
:P
Determining the appropriate context for spoken input is, I think, the biggest hurdle. But, I don't really know enough about the technology to make a proper statement, so I'll just shut up now
All else aside, security is another obvious problem; what, in general, does prevent someone from running through an office shouting "format C:"? Besides, wouldn't it be hard to discreetly browse for pr0n when you have to speak to your computer? =P
Hydrogen fuel cells offer the possibility of dumping the hydrogen into the air in a confined space and igniting it, making a wonderful little bomb. This would be just the thing to take down an airliner. (It just occurred to me that the same could possibly be done with regular old NiMH batteries, if you had enough of them; how much H2 does one of those store?) I wonder if anyone is analyzing these possibilities, and if so, if the FAA is ready to restrict problematic technologies from commercial aircraft. Methanol fuel cells, by contrast, don't appear to be abusable in this way and ought to be clear to fly; if you're looking for a technology which is going to take off and make money, the one which will be permitted on commercial aircraft seems like a better bet if all else is equal.
Scientists restrict study to entire physical universe; creationist