I have a hunch that the 30-second commercial will be alive and well. Between content protection, plugging the "analog hole", and the DCMA, the networks could put an end to time-shifting. I can't see them doing it for all shows because of the outcry, but I can see a network exec proposing that the final episode of Friends (or all episodes of some very hot show) be shown with no copying allowed. "We'll make it an event!" The promos will tell you to 'make an appointment to see this show', 'be there on time or you'll miss it!' Bingo, captive audience for the 30-second spots.
One foot in the door (a few special shows or special events) and then it just creeps in more and more.
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I have a hunch that the 30-second commercial will be alive and well. Between content protection, plugging the "analog hole", and the DCMA, the networks could put an end to time-shifting. I can't see them doing it for all shows because of the outcry, but I can see a network exec proposing that the final episode of Friends (or all episodes of some very hot show) be shown with no copying allowed. "We'll make it an event!" The promos will tell you to 'make an appointment to see this show', 'be there on time or you'll miss it!' Bingo, captive audience for the 30-second spots.
One foot in the door (a few special shows or special events) and then it just creeps in more and more.