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5 Predictions for 2012
Structured Audio writes "Mike Langberg of the Merc put up his 5
technology predictions for 2012. Well
chosen, although of course in 2012 speech
recognition will still be 10 years away :-)."
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I predict 2012 will be a great year for wine.
I wonder why all the articles which hold predictions are "bold."
Great...can't skip work and go on the Duff Factory tour...
:)
unless I leave my cell phone at home
RMS will still not have bathed.
All present and accounted for -- always. ...
Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are,
I think this will come much sooner and, by 2012, will be gone again once everyone realises how bloody awful it is.
At least according to Terence McKenna.
from the longhorn story earlier: ;)
"Enderle said the new file system will also function efficiently with hard drives holding at least one terabyte of data. That's 1,000 gigabytes, or well over 1,000 compressed movies, or more than 700,000 novels the size of "War and Peace." Such drives are expected to hit the market by 2004."
i hope 8 years more can give a couple more megs to hds
Smile... tomorrow will be worse.
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Hey now, only one bottle broke. I salved the other 11 just an hour ago. :)
...FLYING CARS!!!
unzip; strip; touch; finger; mount; fsck; more; yes; unmount; sleep
The question is how sophisticated our voice recognition will be in 2012. Asking a car how far away a destination is really isn't that hard, and that is only a few years off. To me this just seems like a beefed up command line interpreter-- albeit alot more user friendly. But is that really true voice recognition? Shouldn't voice recognition imply that the computer can pass the turing test? If that's the case, I think that we are a long way off from computers that we can actually communicate with like human beings.
.....what gives? I talk to my computer all the time..I guess I'm ahead of the times.
Their calendar runs out in 2012, and that means an end to the world! Yes, it's true, I heard it on Art Bell.
Sounds familiar. A friend's Dad used to be a minion tending to the needs of a mainframe in the south east of England many years back. Apparently it wasn't unheard of for an HP engineer to walk in through the door and announce that he'd come to replace a processor without the admin even being aware that a processor had died.
--
Windows XP. From the people who brought you Edlin.
I could write those predictions. Actually most science and technology magazines have already printed similiar predictions for years now. If I type something BOLD like that also, will it get posted on Slashdot too?
In the year 2012:
Junis will upgrade to a 386
Jon Katz II begins writing articles for slashdot. His premiere article: What caused Columbine to happen II? A 37-part epic.
Stephen King and Alan Thicke will still be dying on a daily basis, missed by all.
The goatse.cx hole will increase in radius by 3m.
The (meta)-moderation system will still be broken.
E-paper will be coming out "real soon now"
The "How about a beowulf cluster of these?" joke finally gets played out.
Mozilla supports yenc decoding.
Would be pretty cool if they were actually implemented. The RFID tags and GPS things seem to be the most promising. Inventory taking would be painless and hopefully lead to lower prices. Who knows though? Only time will tell. They just need to invent a car that can drive me home from the bar on autopilot and then I will be thoroughly happy.
~S
In the year two-thousand and twelve, we will have inexhaustable electricity sources, flying cars, commercial zeppelin transports, jetpacks, a non-crashable Microsoft Operating system and of course SPAM(TM) that is edible.
They've always been promising us moving sidewalks. Why can't They keep their promises?
I can see it happening to some extent - I mean, the algorithms used are really unreliable, but given time, I can see it becoming usable. However, I take issue with the way he think it will be presented. AI will not be advanced enough, IMHO. You won't say "How far to nearest gas station", you will probably be more limited in how you can ask your question. It might be close to "Car, distance to gas station, nearest" or some other limited syntax. I preface it with 'car' because you have to have some way to let the car know the question is directed at it.
To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
--E.C. Stanton
Unfortunatly, Duke Nukem Forever was cancelled again in 2011....
The Earth is rotating as well as moving through space, right? So, I say moving sidewalks are already everywhere! A stationary sidewalk will be the real development.
( I just wanted to be the first to make this prediction for this particular year.)
NetInfo connection failed for server 127.0.0.1/local
One of the more probable and interesting technologies is Radio Frequency ID. Many people think it'll replace barcodes within some years, but I think many people (because of lack of knowledge) will be sceptic. We're hearing so much talk today allready of mobile phones and wireless networks being "dangerous" in different ways.
Ciryon
what on that list is impressive? He could've at least gone out on a small limb and mentioned fuel-cells.
Brevity is the soul of wit
-- Polonius
downloads a new kernel into you.
"Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
Cohen
(drumroll please)
5. computers will be much faster than they are today
4. computers will be much less expensive than they are now
3. programs will take much more space than they do now
2. hard drive capacities will be much larger than they are now
and finally... (drumroll please)
1. there will be even more duped articles on Slashdot
If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.
I'll say, just stick your in a conductive bag and they'll never know.
erhaps Frits Hollings will introduce the CRFIDTPA which will illegalize bags and pouches made from electrically conductive material.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
Anyone remember a PBS show that pretended to be a couple decades from now, reporting then current day events? I flipped in on the tail end of the show- one blurb had a couple who have never met, but got married in cyberspace, and she never wanted to meet him cause she was afraid that if she saw what he really looked like, she would be disgusted, and another blurb where a couple had a hacker controlling all of their appliances. I'm not asking if anyone else saw it so much as what were some of the other clips in that show?
slashdot: where everyone yells sarcastic metaphors to themselves to understand the issue
we will have compressed air powered cars!
oh.. wait! nevermind... its out already
I'm already always online on my IM services, but always in the N/A or away state.. People never know if I'm actually there, unless I talk back. I'm omnipresent, just not an accountant.. or something.
"If anyone needs me, I'm in the angry dome."
The car: You should not have to ask how far it is to the next gas station. The car knows how much gas you have, how many miles to the next station, and your gas millage, maybe even the terrain. It should be more like:
Hal: John, I have determined you should not have passed that last station, maybe you should turn around now.
Hal: John, you have two miles more before the point of no return to that gas station you passed.
Hal: John, are you listening to me?
John: Shut UP! You dont know i have a gas can in the trunk!
Hal: John, yes you do, but its empty! Remember last time?
John: Nag, Nag Nag..
See subject. Life's still going to suck. The planet is still going to be overrun with idiots.
Microsoft will release an OS without bugs, that "all your base are belong to us" joke will get old, and pigs will fly. Wait. Was that 2012? Oh, I thought it said 2102.
People like you give Soviet Russia a bad name.
Well, OK, it's mostly the people like Stalin who do that, but still....
I would guess it is also possible for networks to start doing what they do during soccer games when they can't take breaks -- scroll the add on top of the programming. You could be watching Friends, with a little "Pampers" ad on the bottom. This would allow for even more commercial time, and they could sell the time to sync to various moments in a program. (e.g Rachel is playing with the baby, roll the Pampers ad. They are in the coffeehouse, roll the Starbucks ad)
Another thing that can happen is a'la sports programming. At various times during the program, the picture would shrink, making enough space for an ad to be displayed alongside. Some people will put up with this if it means free, and you can't skip the commercials.
See, aren't ya'll glad I'm not a network exec.
If it goes away, good riddance. They have to be careful with subscription fees.. commercial TV is mostly crap, so it is hard to price it correctly. All my local stations together would probably be worth about $7/mo to me if they were to be commercial free. Can they make money with that?
The Internet is everywhere -- and nowhere.
;-)
This will take at least 15 years. People don't buy new washing machines all that often.
All present and accounted for -- always.
This will be in mobile phones within 5 years.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably unfeasible as described. More likely you will authorize payment for the item before putting it in the bag. The receiver at the entryway will only check that you don't leave with any unpaid items. 10 years is about right, I wager.
Prime time is your time
Not very adventurous there. 5 more years.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
People curse them every day, so this is already reality.
I doubt true voice control will be there in 10 years either, unless there is a major break through in AI technology. Before that, we will be limited to simple voice keyed activation.
"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them." -- George H. W. Bush
Receiver fails to detect CC ID chip - customer gets hassled by security/alarms go off.
Receiver fails to detect goods/detects wrong number. Makes stock inventory no easier, overcharging and undercharging still a problem.
Cash sales. Some people don't have a CC a) because they can't get one (age limitations, credit problems) or b)because they don't want one.
Games Workshop Petition
A world where everything is online? Companies will exploit it getting you to opt out of buying things from them and people will view it as a invasion of privacy.
RFIDs on clothing? Wouldnt that make it easier for the people to steal stuff if the cashier element was eliminated? So cashiers will logically have to be turned into security guards in order to watch you. So stores become more intrusive in spying on you.
Watch how you go TV? Unless the TV networks and studios merge into one this wont happen. You wont be able to store films as Hollywood wont allow you to (unless you bought the 2012 version of the DVD/VHS/hologram). Its more likely the TV of the future wil store what the networks think youd like ie commerically rich dumbed down shit.
In a perfect world these would happen. In ours business and human habits affect it.
To be more precise, it will end on Dec. 21, 2012. Even more suprising is the fact that everyone I work with finally gets our additional vacation time on...Dec 21, 2012! I think our CEO is in league with those Mayans, X-Philes, and the Aliens. We're all doomed to have the world end without getting to use our additional time! Damn aliens...
In Soviet Russia, Beowulf cluster imagines YOU!
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming.
Not bloody likely. HD Video is likely to require about 15 GB/hour to store. 1 TB of data does NOT give you 'hundreds of hours', more like 65 hours.
I predict that in the year 2012 i will finally have a date! YES! Girl Geeks. mmmm
"Where are my flying cars? I was promised flying cars..."
- Avery Brooks (In a IBM commercial)
AnamanFan - Trying to find the Truth, one post at a time.
My presence is for me to decide. I don't want anyone to know right where I am unless I tell them or they are with me. The first anyone who insists on knowing my wherebouts 24/7 (who's not my wife ;) will learn a lesson in the wherebouts of my fist.
Smart tags wont be on price tags, they'll be built in to products. Again, I don't want little tattletales broadcasting every thing I have to anyone with a hig gain scanner. Theives will move from the store to your home. Expect that they will be illegal to remove by anyone, too.
TV will move to a pay per show model. Product placement will be rampant, as well as the commercials (you'll get those for free, of course. ) Expect shows to be shorter, and drawn out over longer periods. Reality Based shows will most likely thrive, since many of the things they will do on TV won't be allowed in RL. Invasiveness is the key.
Talking to my computer will still be hampered by bloated code, legislation, monopolies, and chewing with my mouth full.
All this will be driven by companies who want you to consume more and more. Durabillity will be replaced by a throwaway society - recycling will most likely be increased, since raw materials will become scarcer, and the number of people will continue to balloon.
See you there!
...it won't seem to odd to say, ``Car, how far to the next gas station?'' and for the car to reply ``Eight miles ahead at exit 37, there is a Chevron and a Union 76.'' ...the commercial aspect and assume we'll all enjoy these benefits for free.
More likely: "Eight miles ahead at exit 37, there is a Quick-Stop Cheveron with Food-O-Rama and Travellers' Information Center. To hear about... 1... other option, please say "additional options please" while pressing the "options" key on your dash."
"...all the labours of the ages, all the devotion, all the inspiration, all the noonday brightness..." yada yada
I had been browsing in Mozilla a long time and I didn't remember just how bad ads can be when using IE . . .
Most of these predictins are fairly safe. One of the most interesting is the self-checkout store. It might be hard to get the tags tamper proof. Remember that they would not merely have to get them tamper proof in terms of being to sneakily remove them, but tamper proof in the sense of preventing them from transmitting or tamperproof in the sense of having the recievers not get the signals, such as good old fashioned jamming. Some real challenges, but not out of the question entirely. The preciction that your family, etc will allways know where you are may well prove to be possible but unwanted (as may be the prediction about having your washing machine tell the company how often you are washing clothes). This is just an extension of the electronic name tags in the 1992 article. People want some privacy. It is a bit like universal picture phones. The first picture phone was demonstrated in a demonstration between AT&T headquarters and the Secretary of the Treasury in Washington. The Secretary of the Treasury was Herbert Hoover (yes, that Herbert Hoover, the technology is really that old).
overrated and underrated don't appear in metamod
I predict people will have had enough of getting a bill every month listing millions of micro-payments for all these invisible services. Paper will still be paper, the internet will still be two dimensional, and nobody will use email anymore because instant messaging is less spammy when you simply block all incomings not on your address list. Wood panels will become popular on cars again, and on computers too. A large desktop PC will be the size of a coke-can and generate enough waste heat to cook your evening meal.
Distributed.net will have finished another couple of pointless projects. Seti will still being going strong and getting nothing back in return. Cancer will be cured by computers, and aids will still be spreading wildly in poor countries while patented drugs keep rich people alive indefinitely who have the same disease.
Every major city in the world will still have terrible traffic problems. Computers will model perfect cities and nobody will build them. Nuclear weapons will still be able to wipe out humanity, and at least one small country will become a small scorch-mark as a result (and this will have been predicted 2 hours ahead by a computer model).
Armadillo Aerospace will have the first 'flying car' but it won't be available for public use because it's too dangerous.
The International Space Station will be almost finished and still not particularly useful (as far as anyone can tell). People will not have ventured to the moon or mars. Nor will they have plans to. (or budgets maybe).
And I will still be reading Slashdot.
A UK show called Drive or something had in it a couple of weeks ago a car with a verbal command phone. You say the persons name and it calls him/her. Thing was you had to set it up with the names first and the voice recognition was terrible. It took two hours for the presenter (Jeremy Clarkson) to vocally input and store a phone number and its owner.
Everything that could conceivably be part of a Beowulf cluster will be part of a Beowulf cluster!
Honestly, when people make predictions, why they forget the cost impact?
I would not want my wash machine cost an extra $30 for electronics so it can warn a repair service which will charge me $70 to fix a problem where my water is slightly more warmer than it should and cost me only $3 more per year of electricity. And if my wash machine has a serious defect, I will find out the old way by hearing or seeing what is going wrong; no need of a computer for that.
And if you want to connect appliances to the Internet, either you use the electric grid for data transmission (if available) and you must pay for it, or you connect the appliances to your ethernet network (assume you have ADSL internet). How many of you have houses with ethernet near the wash machine? How many will drill holes through your walls to get ethernet to your wash machine?
The suggestion is feasable technically, but not practical. It won't be widly deployed. Same thing with GPS. I do not want to pay more for a GPS in my car; I do not get lost that often.
I do not want my appliances to be intelligent because the more complex they are, the more the chances of failure and the more they cost at purchase and for maintenance. I like my wash machine as it is, as my refrigerator.
Having electrical appliances connected to the internet are certainly not killer apps, and that is why they will fail on the market (unless these appliances provide actual browsing capabilities on the internet, like on a refrigerator or a microwave; some people might actually want this).
Remember the year 2000? They promised us flying cars. They delivered the PT Cruiser...
Is anyone else even just a LITTLE disturbed that most of these predictions require 24/7 surveillance (one way or another) of any person that wants to take advantage of them? I'm sorry, but barring some new totalitarian regime taking over the U.S. (which could slowly happen, like a frog boiling in a pot), NO ONE in their right mind is going to want all this stuff.
If we have flying cars and inexhaustable electricity sources, what do we need zeplins for?
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
When looking a the future, it can be a good idea to look at the past predictions of the future. Here is a link to that. And you know, so much has changed since 1992. We were going through hard economic times, the president was a guy named "Bush" and the U.S. was in a conflict with Iraq. My, how times have changed. :)
If hardware takes the same status among college students as software, one can imagine all sorts of interesting stuff. And of course, making a render farm would be much easier.
Would there actually be any incentive for software/hardware development? However, this would mean that money would be meaningless, so any work people do would be of pure interest or wish to develop creatively. Creativity would actually be the only task left to humankind.
At this point, another scenario would be the installation into each human of a happybutton, that gives an instant orgasm. Humanity would then be kept in a state of constant ecstasy, never being creative like before. Maybe this is the end of the world in 2012 that people are talking about in other comments. Would you trade your current lives for eternal bliss?
That would mean that internet connectivity has to be wireless and cheap. It would also require people to WANT their appliances connected to the internet. I'm sorry but my washing machine works really well right now on it's own without it bugging me to take it in or yelling adds at me. If that's why these machines want to connect (to rip me off, advertise to me, tell me i should take it into the dealer and pay more money) then I'm gonna be ready with a nice jamming signal for them.
2. The IM prediction and online presence.
Maybe it will be like somewhat as he says. But I sure as hell am not going to have a damn gps signal telling everyone who wants to talk to me exactly where I am. And I'm not gonna be available all the time either. My settings are gonna default to "leave me a god damn email msg and I'll get back to you when I can". Not 'here's my exact location, what I'm doing and 5 ways to page me right now'. :)
3. Walking out of shops and the rfid tag nonsense.
Riiight. A store with no clerks. Talk about easy to shoplift if you have your own programmable rfids. or just walk out next to someone else and charge your stuff to their card.
4. Tivo in every home, no restrictions.
Let's see if the mpaa + networks will just roll over for that one. My guess is it will be a crippled tivo ripoff with all sorts of DRM and palladium inside if that happens. Anything else will be illegal.
5. Speech recognition.
Don't know about this one. Everyone and their mother has thought this was right around the corner for the past 20 years.
Here's my prediction:
Corporate America will finally dispense with the play acting and be in direct control of the country. Instead of having senators from each constituency, we will have senator Disney, senator Microsoft, senator Tobacco industry, senator chemical industry. And the president will be the CEO of the country.
Liberty.
"And in a few years you'll be able to talk to your computer. You can say like 'Wash my car', or 'Clean my room'. ... Of course it won't be able to do any of those things, but it'll understand what you said."
...Also, I didn't know Buggalo could fly.
Speech recognition prediction is like the "first post posts". Computers may get complex enough to understand speech. But you know I bet then they decide not to listen cause they think we are just a sad sack of genes, "All they do is complain and read slashdot. Life is tough as a server." Don't want them to be like humans, they may just become human and that'd be a problem.
5. Phasers
4. Force Fields
3. Transporters
2. Replicators
1. Warp Drive
They're talking about squeezing HD-DVD onto the same physical medium, but using MPEG-4 compression rather than the MPEG-2 currently used. Now, assuming that a DVD can hold 9 gigabytes and a necessary minimum capacity of two hours, that's about 4.5 gigabytes per hour. That gives about 220 hours of storage.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
The world ends sooner that 2012 according to this article.
That sounds kind of silly. Would be kind of like the grocery store calling me up and telling me I was low on milk. Yes... it would be great to know that my washing machine is using too much hot water... but the washing machine should tell me, and not Sears.
Sex - Find It
Yeah. What will you do?
I'm a bit surprised that some more thought wasn't given to how different our energy consumption patterns and transportation modes will be by then.
I predict that the Hurd will be almost done by then.
boldly going forward, 'cause we can't find reverse
Comment removed based on user account deletion
I mean, we all know the world ends in 2012, right??
Actually, No.
The world ends in 2039, when the Unix clocks all fail, and we all get blown up by nuclear warheads and melting reactors.
His predictions may make sense technologically, but not socially. Your appliances might be on the Net, but they will only be accessible to you. Your refrigerator will notify you by email or equivalent when it needs service, not the manufacturer. People don't want their appliances talking to strangers. The owners will want to be in charge.
Likewise when checking out in the store, you will need to explicitly authorize the purchase, otherwise you could contest it later. You will be presented with an itemized receipt based on a scan of your items, and you're supposed to look it over quickly and make sure there's nothing on there that you didn't buy. Then you do something to initiate the payment. You can't let people take money out of your account without giving approval! There has to be some action you take to explicitly authorize a certain amount to be transfered.
With the "presence", again you will have much more control over it than he implies. You will be able to say who can find out how you are reachable. You can have filters that automatically email you when your voice mail comes in, etc., so that people with different levels of access don't necessarily know how much priority they're getting. That way you don't offend people.
As far as ubiquitous TiVo, it depends on the outcome (both legislative and technical) of the copyright wars. You may be able to record the shows only under the control of strict DRM software that won't FF through the commercials (like the way DVD players won't FF through the FBI warnings now).
One additional social/technical prediction I'd make is more use of webcams for business meetings, creating the virtual office. Assuming that terrorism scares keep happening, people will prefer not to travel so much, and employees will want to stay home and not come into the dangerously concentrated population areas downtown. We'll see a continued trend towards white collar workers using live video feeds to communicate with their co-workers both locally and around the world.
How long until the car says "I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave."?
:P
stupid joke, mod me down already!
Constant orgasms actually sound somewhat unpleasant.
220 gig hard drives are already on store shelves. You can easily build a 1tb raid array today if you want to. Think about the size of hard drives in 1992. What, 120 megs? If the triend continues we'll have half petabyte hard drives by then.
Of course, they will run at 400 degrees and last a week, but tradeoffs always need to be made...
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
You must not be doing it right, then.
In 2013, after you install the water limiter uncapper, your maytag washing machine finks on you and collects a reward.
In 2013, the invention of the RFID cloaking devices (aluminum lines shopping bags), leads to whole sale shoplifting. An new chain of stores called "shop-naked" emerges, and becomes wildly popular not only as a place to meet members of the opposit sex, but because it is the only place that sells food in the city anymore.
in 2013, stranger-on-a-train parties become an out-of control trend, with complete strangers exchanging their Presence ID tags. Thus subverting the tracking scrutiny of big brother and his computerized corporate stooges. Faced with a loss of control over ordinary citizens, President Jenna Bush imposes mandatory ID tatooing and all babies receive an injected RFID module.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Actualy I'd never seen a video banner ad like that. A few box ones though. Flash can have sound in moz, so I don't see why that would protect you.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
Even more interresting are the predictions he made 10 years ago, in 1992
They're called 'genitals',
Seriously though, how would pushing this so-called happy button be any diffrent then masterbating?
And if they made you truly happy, they'd be illegalized just like Ecstasy and heroin are today.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
the self checkout would so not work, somebody will have to put these secial tags on everything in the store, if one thing is not taged then basicly when somone walks out with it he will not be billed for that item, nice idea but why would a store take a chance when the system they have now with real cashiers works good.
Electricity? In 2012?
Doesn't this guy realise all our primitive electron-based technology will have been rendered useless by the countless EMPs from our future nuclear wars?
What about prediction number 6: There will still be sandwitch-board men proclaiming that "The end is nigh"?
Actually, at my grocery store Giant, I use the self-checkout line pretty much everytime. Many people are still scared of it, so the wait is generally much less. Pretty easy. I just scan the items, pay, and go bag them up. Works well.
it's not only on AT&T's mLife plans..... it's on a lot of newer phones... basically any phone that boasts "e911" has a GPS or GPS-like thing going on. my friend's latest phone (on verizon) has this feature, and it's not an expensive phone. it can be set so it is only active if you actually dial 911. in a sense it is kinda cool, in a sense it is creepy as hell. if you sail off the highway on a backwoods road during a snowstorm, you would be psyched you have it (assuming you have signal). if your boss uses it to find out you are not sick and actually going to see Star Wars 3, then you'll hate it.
Imagine an office landscape of about 100 people. It will sound like a chicken farm on fire.
Isnt handsfree silly enough to watch? Will the computer understand foul language and respond by deleting files (happens anyway if you use Windows).
HTTP/1.1 400
I ALREADY hate Star Wars 3 and I haven't even seen it yet
That was classic intercourse!
i dont really see what this has to do with predictions but thanks for the info all i have to say is who is hungry
In 10 years, we'll all look back on this and laugh. The same way that we do when we watch an old science fiction movie that was made without the thought in mind that people would still be watching it 30 years later.
My washing machine won't talk to the producer in 10
years. There is no reason to do so. My mothers
machine is now running for 20 years and her old one
did it for a longer time.
Also my computer won't understand me in 10 years.
Because it won't get the contexts. The problem with
context cannot be solved with more memory.
The next predition was a video recorder with
1TByte. Well that sounds reasonable to me, but
without special keys I wouldn't be able to watch
anything on that disc, because it is encrypted.
Well I predict. Less freedom, and more control
over knowlegde, resources by big companies.
Also there is a tendency for more riots, terrorism
and other kinds of disorder.
I presume that this guy is predicting that we'll interact with the computer through voice only, without need for keyboard or mouse. If so, then this prediction is way off, because speech recognition is only one small part of the puzzle.
Think of it this way. Sit with someone and walk them through performing relatively simple tasks, but try to do it without being able to point to the screen.
"Click on the red button, no, no, not that one, the one next to the green button, then tab into the next text field, type this in a-p-p-l-e-space-j-u-i-c-e, ok, now right click, enter, then select brown from the third drop down box, oh what's a drop down box?"
Pretty complicated, huh? And that's with perfect speech recognition software in your buddy's head.
To carry out tasks beyond the mundane like dictation will require a radical interface redesign, along with some pretty cool AI. Now, I think this technology might be within grasp by 2012, but far from widely deployed. As we've seen, Microsoft (and the market) likes incremental rather than radical change.
"store merchandise that rings itself up for purchase"
Imagine merchandise that recognises when its being taken out of the shop and bills your account...
"Oh I'm so brave and clever walking out of the shop without paying! I could never afford all these goodies!"
(checks bank account the next day)
"Oh crap I guess I'll have to find a cardboard box to live in"
Fragging brilliant; retail prices will be able to drop thru the floor! (but they won't of course; have profit, *keep* profit! INCREASE profit!)
In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
You can opt out for a monthly fee
No sig for you!!
I don't have any faith in speech recognition.
I'm already using it, and it drives me nuts. When I add money to my "pay and talk" cell phone account, I am forced to use their new (within the past couple of months) speech recognition menu. I am literally answering a robot's questions, and she makes me want to bang my phone on the closest solid structure near me.
Welcome to Rogers At&T pay as you go service, would you like to add money to your account today? Please say yes, or no.
Yes
I'm sorry, I didn't hear you, would you like to add money to your account today?
Yeeeees.
I'm trying to ask you a question. Please answer with yes or no.
YEEEEEES
this is the part where I wonder if swearing at the system will make it work. Maybe it recognizes "i said yes you piece of shit android" No it doesn't (I tried), but it usually takes about 5 tries, and I get into the "add money to my account menu" where i can then use the keypad (still) to enter in my P.I.N., new card number, etc.
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Bold technology predictions for 2012
By Mike Langberg
Mercury News
Smart devices that talk to each other without human intervention, store merchandise that rings itself up for purchase and machines that finally understand the spoken word are just some of the new technologies awaiting us in the year 2012.
On Monday I gave myself a ``B'' for my 1992 predictions of what life would be like in 2002.
Before sticking my neck out another 10 years, I consulted three Silicon Valley futurists: Tim Bajarin, president of technology consulting firm Creative Strategies in Campbell; Tim Brown, president of Palo Alto design firm Ideo; and Paul Saffo, a director of the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park.
I've borrowed many ideas from these three deep thinkers, but the predictions that follow are mine -- so I deserve all the blame for anything that looks silly 10 years from now.
So here are my five big ideas for how technology will reshape our daily routines in 2012:
The Internet is everywhere -- and nowhere.
Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-machine communication.
You'll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment -- information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built.
All present and accounted for -- always.
Instant messaging is popular, in part, because IM software tells you which of your friends are online waiting to chat. This concept, formally known as ``presence,'' will be extended to all forms of electronic communication.
Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are, thanks to wireless phones even tinier than what's available today and other devices with built-in GPS locators. You'll be able to specify how you wish to be reached: by text if you're busy, by voice or video if you're free. Between now and 2012, expect major controversy on whether employers, schools and advertisers should have access to your ``presence.''
Walk now, pay later.
Stores without doors will rely on RFID, or radio-frequency identification, tags to keep track of inventory and payment. These tiny semiconductors communicate a small amount of information, such as a product serial number, when queried by inexpensive transmitter/receivers. Only recently selling for several dollars, RFID chips should cost only a few cents next year and will be smaller than a grain of rice.
In 2012, RFID chips will sell for less than a penny and be printed onto packaging and price tags -- the beginning of the end for cash registers. You walk into a store, put what you want in a bag and walk out the door. An RFID transmitter/receiver in the entryway instantly totals up your purchases and makes a deduction from the RFID credit card in your wallet. If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.
Prime time is your time.
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming.
Except for special events such as the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards, no one will watch TV shows at the time they are transmitted, and conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won't pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button. Major broadcast networks and traditional prime-time programming will be fading, with most entertainment sold through either a monthly subscription or a pay-per-view fee.
Finally, we can talk to our computers.
I'm recycling a prediction from 1992 that didn't come true this year but just might happen by 2012: Reliable speech recognition will allow computers, phones and household appliances to understand our spoken commands.
Driving alone down an unfamiliar interstate, it won't seem to odd to say, ``Car, how far to the next gas station?'' and for the car to reply ``Eight miles ahead at exit 37, there is a Chevron and a Union 76.'' You won't need to know or care that your car required GPS navigation, a speech-recognition processor, a text-to-speech synthesizer and a wireless data link to an online Yellow Pages directory to answer what seems like a simple question.
Not everything will change in the next decade. I predict the Mercury News will continue, printed on paper and delivered to doorsteps every morning. The business of putting news and ads together on newsprint has worked for more than a century and probably has at least a few more decades of life. As for me, if I'm still here in 2012, I'll dig out this column and give myself another report card.
The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
Actually there seems to be some discrepancy as to whether the end will come on 12/21 or 12/23. See http://www.jaguar-sun.com/endcount.html.
Personally I'm hoping for 12/23 as that's my birthday. Could make things interesting :)
Driver: Car, how far to the next gas station?
Car: Eight miles ahead at exit 37 there is a Chevron station.
Driver: Is there a Mobil station there?
Car: No.
Driver: Are there any closer gas stations?
Car: Yes.
Driver: Where?
Car: Six miles ahead at exit 36 there is a Citgo station.
Driver: Are there any Mobil stations within the next twenty miles?
Car: Yes, there is one four miles ahead at exit 35.
Driver: Why didn't you tell me that in the first place?
Car: To keep the costs of the service low to you, we present you with value-added featured placements first. By the way, wouldn't you like a larger penis?
"How to Do Nothing," kids activities, back in print!
2) Have a lot of them turn out right
3) ????
4) PROPHET!!!
This page accidentally left blank
Jenna Bush, (R-texas) speaker of the house, was sworn in as president earlier today after the tragic death of President Jeb Bush, and vice president and consort, Kathleen Harris. The president was killed in a tagic suicide pretzel attack organized by the cuban branch of al quaida. The tragic news interrupted a beach front photo-shoot for playboy's Girl's of the Whitehouse issue.
On assuming the presidency, Jenna Bush abolished the DEA and ordered the whitehouse rose garden roto-tilled, and replanted with first class "presidential grade" Jamaican "hemp". In a slurred Inaugural speech she nominated Eileen Fleiss as Vice President, and called for Hot grits down natalie portman's pants. And obvious reward to the slash dot lobby that rigged the computerized elections for her father.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
He obviously hasn't thought this one through; he's claiming that in 2012, anybody will be able to steal your credit card and then walk out of stores with anything they want, and there will be no impetus on the store to actually verify that it is you? Doesn't sound like a viable business model to me! Winona would then just claim that somebody stole her RFID and still steal from Saks!
"Freedom means freedom for everybody" -- Dick Cheney
I think that it will be doing well. I think with it being embraced by more organizations, it will have a larger user base and it will finally be pretty user friendly.
I think Windows will still be a expensive, buggy, memory hog.
I think that people mostly just want speed and user-friendliness out of their computer programs. No matter what features Windows throws on, I don't think they'll stop defections. People will want a free reliable OS once and for all.
That's my opinion, I could be wrong.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free
Between now and 2012, expect major controversy on whether employers, schools and advertisers should have access to your ``presence.''
I worry more about what the police would do with it. I also worry about what kind of blackmailing is possible if people can see online that I'm going to a dark alley downtown for something.
People hawk it as a matter of convenience, and a matter of safety. But you know, it should be my right to drop off the radar, and EVERYONE'S radar...
Even if only for a little while.
I am not a celebrity. I am not a criminal. I am nobody important.
Why do I have to be tracked like I am?
/^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
I can't wait until this tracking feature is a de facto standard. Then, all I have to do to disappear for a while is let a friend borrow my cell.
...computer talks to you!
...but only if every mathematician who's ever worked out an orbital mechanics equation is dead wrong.
Shithead.
They that would sacrifice their
I admit that I haven't been following the latest developments in the field, but saying that recognizing speech and understanding the content are totally different things seems like an awfully bold statement.
I'd imagine that understanding the content is exactly what makes humans such cunning speech recognizers. Understanding can mean different things to different people, of course, but I'm sure that the first speech recognition machine to pass your test will contain at least some sort of semantic analysis to beef up the score.
Marko Karppinen
but not get any action until the 2038 Unix Time bug forces them to leave their machines and go forth and copulate
All his assumptions are based pretty much on what we TODAY consider to be desired. The fact is, in 10 years, we'll have changed our perspective so that such things, once past the gee-wiz phase, have evolved into more mainstream appliances, that do what we want them to do, and more importantly ONLY what we want them to do.
:) But better than the embarrasing situation where you've accidently labeled yourself a criminal because you misplaced that package of bubblegum when you were shopping.
:)
Everyone doesn't have a cellphone..... yet, but it seems to be getting that way quickly. You can't walk down an asile in the supermarket without seeing someone talking on the phone, usually about some useless, pointless conversation that is only occupying what free brain cells they have left, and leaving very little, if any, available for any other purpose, like not blocking the asile, or applying the brakes in an orderly fashion. More and more places are banning active cellphone use, mostly to appeal to the customers that find others yelling into the cellphone during a movie to be somewhat disruptive. And those of us who value our privacy will venture away from the option to be located anywhere at any time. The feature might exist, but very few people will probably use it, unless its necessary.
RFID tags are great, and it makes sense to simply walk out the door and have your credit card deducted for the right amount as you do. And if you accidently walk out with something you're not supposed to, it will let you know. If it was a simple accident, you have the option to walk back in. If it wasn't, you can still run..
Cable already SHOULD be advertising free. You're paying a monthly fee for the shows, you should get them without advertising. And if not for the advertising, they shouldn't care when, or how many times you watch something. As long as you keep dishing out the monthly fee, and you will, it should make little, if any difference. Its the dependance on advertising that's biting the cable networks in the ass, hence their bitter complaints about Tivo and the like. Rid themselves of the advertising beast, embrace the PVR, restructure their budget, and life will be good.
As for voice recognition, we got that today. Of course, there's an AI element that's lacking, but if the driver is willing to stick to a standard convention for command structure, most of what the author is predicting in 10 years could be done today with little difficulty. The simple fact of the matter is, 99% of the time, I know where the nearest gas station is. Only travellers need this information, and most intellegent travellers will fill up at the most convienent opportunity (i.e., not when they have 10 miles worth of gas left) Better for the car to simply inform me as I'm passing a gas station, knowing my destination and most likely route, that the gas station I'm passing is the least expensive one I will pass before running out of gas and therefore I should stop now to fill up. Screw asking the car about it.
-Restil
Play with my webcams and lights here
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Actually, your washing machine will negotiate will your day planner when the guy can come out to fix it. Then you'll renegotiate around all the things you don't want your day planner to know about. The your washing machine will email Sears, and the guy still won't show up that day.
But it would suck to die so young and still a virgin.
Nah, "stupid" will just move up a notch and the stupid people will be that much more advanced. I mean stupid people today are driving cars, operating computers to some degree, and have a somewhat decent scientific understanding of things like germs cause disease, and evolution, and other things.
In contrast, Stupid People in the middle ages were illiterate and relied on a lot of superstition.
So future stupid people will probably be just fine with new technology. The problems will come when todays stupid people can't handle new tech, much like many seniors today and computers.
Future geeks will probably be just as aggrivated with these new advanced stupid people.
Daikatana expansion set finally out
After years of anticipation, Final Fantasy XXX is announced but is canceled 24 hours before release date.
George Lucas announces Star Wars Episode 10,11 and 12
First man to ever transfer his life into a computer
Bill Gates tragically dies after Windows Etherlife crashes because of lack of stability and incompatibility with Paladium 4.0
A CD still costs 25 bucks
No, you're supposed to change "[Subject] [verb] [object]" sentences to "In Soviet Russia, [object] [verb]s [subject]!" Yours turned "[sentence fragment headline] into "In Soviet Russia, we have [headline fragment sentence]."
.. and conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won't pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button.
Uh... no. Who says that within the next 10 years that there will be a fast-forward button? Advertisers have a lot of clout; don't expect them to sit idle. And they've already started complaining...
In Russia Soviet we have... errr forget it.
WWJD.... for a Klondike bar?
You have a great point here.
I'm waiting for Americans to decide which technologies give them more or better personal time, and which technologies invade and destroy it.
Cellphones can be a blessing. They can also be a way for our employers to extend office hours through dinner and bedtime.
Instant messaging has become a burden to me. Being available all the time for any priority of message is like moving your office desk or living room couch to the mall.
I want nothing to do with people-tracking technology. The folks I care to know where I am during my day do. I don't want strangers, the Pentagon's Total Information Awareness program, or the Bush Administration tracking my movements as if I'm some sort of migratory animal, thank you.
Let's make toolks for the workers, rather than turning the workers into tools.
This is my post. There are many others like it. If you don't like what you read here, go try one of the others.
Anyone check out his 1992 predictions (for 2002)?
:)
this year's hot Hollywood hunk, teen star Macaulay Culkin
Ummm... yeah. And he claims he wasn't full of it back then
Endless arguments over trivial contradictions in books written by ignorant savages to explain thunder in the dark.
There will be a pill men (and women) can take to remove the need for shaving. Trade named Depilorex, those that take the pill will lose all bodily hair and be referred to as 'smoothies' leading them to start a cult that worships the head of Steve Balmer.
After years of mis-understanding and accidental death, new Tablet PC's will come out that are chewable, in colorful Flintstone shapes.
Bill Gates will be a distant memory having been killed in 2006 in a bizarre accident when his computerized bidet malfunctions (a brief investigation can find no evidence of tampering and very little evidence of Mr. Gates)
Steve Balmer retires from Microsoft in 2005 to star and produce in a remake of the Battle for the Planet of the Apes. Mr. Balmer also becomes heavily involved with the smoothie cult as it's symbolic leader and introduces ritualistic clapping and hopping to the group before being asked to reduce his role and "just be the head"
Terrorism is a thing of the past when, in a 2003 CIA plot, the leaders of al-Qaida are clandestinely fed Depilorex and cannot look at each other without giggling and are too embarrassed appear in threatening videos.
The new head of Microsoft, an incomplete 6 year old Bill Gates clone hastily harvested from the scene of his death, announces (via a translator 'Mr. Wuzzy his Spokes-Teddy Bear') the switch to a new open source philosophy, introducing the new direction with a new mascot, a fuzzy green reptile called 'Opensaurus' and changing the marketing tagline of the company to "We wanna play too! "
Cake or Death? Cake Please!
Leave your phone at home?
I'm Rick James with mod points biatch!
The world ends sooner that 2012 according to this [yahoo.com] article.
Actually it reminds me of cars. They have lots of diagnostics built in, and check the engine etc, and then doesn't tell you about the results. Instead you have to go to the garage, where someone will read what the engine is saying, and repeat it back to you...
Dildonics matures, but is still too expensive for the average geek.
Well, in that case we had better watch out the next time 1 Reed comes around. (I think I have that date right. Anyway, the predicted return of Quetzacoatl.)
Last time it ended up being Cortez.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
So, let's say:
I live 70 years
I watch 5 movies per week (2 hours each)
one hour of high-definition movie is about 2 GB Then, in my entire life, I will consume something like 70 TB of data. Of course, maybe there will be 3D-surround immersion imaging devices... But eventually, we will be able to store locally all the information we can consume and produce. Storing more will be useless. Eventually, we will reach a point where more and better technology will be useless.
:-)
This reminds me something I read a long time ago: Knowledge Crash. Science progresses. It takes more and more time to reach the bleeding edge of science and improve on it. In the beginning of the century, you could write Nobel-prize class papers at 20. Now, you need to be a little bit older. Eventually, to improve on science, you will need a life-long study. And we will reach a point where human life will not be long enough to improve on humanity's knowledge. I know, teaching techniques improves over time, but even then, there will be a limit. The only way out will be a longer human life... or a limitless human life. But until Kurzweil's dream (read this too) become a reality, both technology and knowledge crashes are part of our future - and more technology will not be usefull anymore...
I wonder what kind of society we will live in then... and what being human will mean.
The AutoID center is doing field trials on using the RFID tags for inventory (but not I think for automagic checkouts) & I understand that the first real big order for tags has been made by one of the major consumer products companies.
No DNF jokes?
If the triend continues we'll have half petabyte hard drives by then.
That's a big if. There have been numerous articles claiming we are nearing a thermal limit on recording density.
Predictions for 2012:
1. Users that do try to learn will piss me off.
2. Software will fit the hardware. Has since Windows 98.
3. I hearby declare the therom of the bloat, that being tha bloat will always ruin the implementation of any good idea.
4. See number 3 for why any feature you THINK will really be around by then will not. I will still be using this damn keyboad, your mouse will still be sticky.
5. The only REAL features you will have in 2013 that are not in the pitcutre now.....NOTHING. All the same shit, all smaller.
6. Oh, and MS and DRM will by then rule all or fall by the wayside.
One bit to rule them, one bit to find them, one bit...shit, I hate quotes.
WAR TUX!!!
Also neural networks are algorithms, and actually most neural networks (by far) are 3 layer feedforward networks, with 1 input layer (for basically one slice of the speech spectrogram), 1 hidden layer and 1 output layer with a node for each hypothesis phone(me). The hidden and output layers have nonlinear activations. They are a mega-bitch to train because of the nonlinearity and they usually converge to non-global error minima. There are many ways to train an ANN, and most are iterative with random initial conditions, so that's why they are not algorithmically optimal.
But to run online, they are fast and deterministic (i.e. the non-recurrent variety), and can be done in a few lines of Matlab or page of C code.
Won't happen. "Home control" has been possible for 20 years, and very few people bother. The system administration outweighs the advantages.
This will take at least 15 years. People don't buy new washing machines all that often.
All present and accounted for -- always.
This will be in mobile phones within 5 years.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably unfeasible as described. More likely you will authorize payment for the item before putting it in the bag. The receiver at the entryway will only check that you don't leave with any unpaid items. 10 years is about right, I wager.
Prime time is your time
Not very adventurous there. 5 more years.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
People curse them every day, so this is already reality.
I doubt true voice control will be there in 10 years either, unless there is a major break through in AI technology. Before that, we will be limited to simple voice keyed activation.
"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them." -- George H. W. Bush
it was at a Grapeful Whosits show, some guy gave me some green liquid that made the sidewalks move.
Frankly, I was much happier when they stopped....
Of Course Toyoda will have an all hybrid-electric fleet.
Galium Arsenide is the material of the future, and always will be.
according to Terminator 2, the world was supposed to end on August 29, 1997. I think we made it okay..
May 1990 (ok .. a bit more than 10 years ago) 80MB was twice as much as I'd EVER need ... Well this according to a Laser computer rep.. (umm.. laser computers.. hehe.. a little short sighted and *poof* no longer here!)
Won't happen. "Home control" systems have been marketed for 20 years, and have never caught on. The system administration takes more time than the thing saves. How many people even use the time clocks on ovens?
All present and accounted for -- always.
Truckers have had this for years. You can buy it for your car now. It will be a work-related thing, not a generally used feature.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably not, but things will go faster at checkout.
Prime time is your time.
Not if the MPAA can stop it.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
No way. We have speech recognition now. What we don't have are systems that comprehend natural language. We're no closer to that than we were ten years ago. If you like speech recognition, call TellMe at 800-555-TELL, which offers news, sports, driving directions, phone information, and movie tickets. Try to buy movie tickets in less than five minutes of talking.
Although I think life often sucks big monster peckers (I love my job, hate my boss; I make alot of money, but just buy more expensive shit, so I'm not rich, etc), I wouldn't trade the pain of trying for things or working for things just because I could have a happy button attached to my nuts making life much simpler. I hate pain and disappointment as much as the next person, but it's the suffering and learning from suffering that makes me who I am, and try to become who I want to be. I'll die trying on my own before I ever have something handed to me.
Spread the RC luvin'
Pushed submit button too soon. Sorry.
The world will end/change on Dec. 31, 9999AD, according to this calendar. As you can clearly see, the calendar does not extend past this date and our modern calendars are much more accurate than those of the Mayans. Surely time will end on this date, or why else would the calendar stop here?
I have a hunch that the 30-second commercial will be alive and well. Between content protection, plugging the "analog hole", and the DCMA, the networks could put an end to time-shifting. I can't see them doing it for all shows because of the outcry, but I can see a network exec proposing that the final episode of Friends (or all episodes of some very hot show) be shown with no copying allowed. "We'll make it an event!" The promos will tell you to 'make an appointment to see this show', 'be there on time or you'll miss it!' Bingo, captive audience for the 30-second spots.
One foot in the door (a few special shows or special events) and then it just creeps in more and more.
+1 Insightful.
Why do you have such narrow poin of view?
Why not in SOVIET UNION?
I want some sharks! With some frickin lasers?!?! Where is that prediction? Huh? Huh???
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order- Ed Howdershelt Via Tass
I'm suprised he didn't predict the fate of "Trusty Worthy Computing" as it's such a hot ticket item to discuss these days. Here are some questions I have on my mind:
- Is M$'s "Trust Worthy Computing" going to actually succeed or flunk? If it succeeds will there be a growing trend towards stringent enforcement v.s. those who openly and secretly defy Pallidium-style architectures? Will there be a new, strong underground movement of "black hat" hackers out to destroy any new tech trying to police content? Will DMCA become a "national priority"?
- Will the RIAA succeed in preventing all forms of "digital theft" using DRM + lotsa lawsuits, or will we still P2P file networks? Will the RIAA create a "new internet model" that would prevent individual artists from self-publishing their own works across the 'net?
- Will 64-bit CPUs be common, and AMD the one leading in this sector?
- Will Apple finally release OSX on x86 hardware?
- Finally the questions we all want answered:
Will Microsoft finally die as a huge behemoth?
Will it be killed by none other than Linux?
And...
Will Linux Desktop actually be easy to use?
Or will Linux(forgive me for saying this) become bloated crap by various distributions that must fit on 5 DVDs?
Or will Microsoft after dying release Windows source code under GPL in order to compete against Linux?(I can dream, can't I?)
Please follow up and add your own questions you are curious about!
If the store gets used to people just walking out with a bag of merchandise, what is to stop people from placing the merchandise into something that will block the rfid signal, say a lead bag?
Also, nobody will ever pay the extra cost for a networked washing machine or dryer, that's just silly.
Do you really believe we still will destroy the atmosphere by burning fossile fuels in 2012?
I certainly hope we don't!
The nature certainly hope we don't!
I have 1 Gbps Internet access@home
"The 'How about a beowulf cluster of these?' joke finally gets played out."
d !
Steve Ballmer will be chanting:
Distributed!
Distributed!
Distribute
Time to celebrate the lack of diversity (if you are still around that is..).
that smart to go with a completely automated check-out. It can be done; see most Zehrs grocery stores, but there are so many problems/discounts/staff discounts/ coupons/ customer stupidity that have to be accounted for.
Even where automated checkouts do exist they still need a fulltime staffer watching them to make sure ppl don't steal and that the customers don't have a problem checking in their own goods.
retail is one of the few buisnesses that can never be fully automated. Any one who has ever worked on a cash and seen how many bad barcodes/bad computer codes/ crazy customers there are will know that no computer could ever deal with that
All those golly gee whiz bang thingys are all, well, gee whiz. Therefore they will be premium services. Moreover the extended warranty on all this crap will be more or less required because maintenance and repair costs for your voice reco AI internet aware wireless fridge will be astronomical.
Just a feeling - many of these predictions, as well as peoples comments posted here, seem to have some sort of connection with 1984. Kinda scary.
I am unique, just like you, and you, and you...
Here is a hint: just because the phone rings does not mean you have to answer it. In fact if there is someone physically in your presense it is IMPOLITE to answer the phone unless you are expecting an emergency. (Your wife could go into labor at anytime, your parent is going in for heart surgery, your kid is late in bad weather. There are others, but those are the big ones)
If I'm in your cube and you answer the phone I will talk to your boss about that, unless you are in customer service they can get voicemail and you will call back.
Many people are surprized that I, a strong introvert like my cell phone. They don't realise that I'm not a slave to the phone, the phone is my slave. If I'm sitting between two beatiful girls and it rings, I hit cancle without even looking at it. (As a geek I've so far had one such opportunity, I might have blown it, but it wasn't by answering the phone) Manytimes when I could answer it I will just look at callerid and send the caller to voicemail.
I see you finally created an account name for your troll. I love you. You are probably the 2nd best troll on slashdot today. The IN SOVIET RUSSIA guy is ahead of you, though. He's not original or anything, but I just love him.
And all you need to do to clone yourself is get some cell phone programming equipment w00t. Yay you can be in 12 places at once!!!
Linux will make it all possible. Of course, that will be 5 years after Windows actually made it possible and shipping.
...the average 3.5" 1/3 height hard disk will be storing more like one hundred terabytes, not one terabyte.
Even with that much storage capacity by 2012 it's likely MPEG-4 will be superceded by an even better video compression format, and we may be seeing a couple of thousand hours of 1080i 16:9 HDTV video stored on a single 100 TB drive.
Personally, I totaly agree with you. He has some of the funniest posts on slashdot. I think it's a shame he starts with a -1 bonus.
Some of us, assuming we survive the fallout, will survive for another year as all macs can handle at least through 2040. Though maybe OS X cut that back a year.
T Money
World Domination with a plastic spoon since 1984
Mike Langberg will give himself another "B" and make another list for 2022.
Not necessarily... Back at the turn of the century, there were 'doctors', and 'surgeons'. Now, there are hand surgeons, internists, gynacologists, eye/ear/nose guys, etc. Likewise, there used to be 'physicists', and shortly afterward there were 'theoretical physicists'... now there are high energy physicists, quantum physicists, particle physicists, etc.
Take any profession... expand it, through more knowledge and technology... you get to the point where you can have people specialize in barely-overlapping fields within the same industry - computer programmers vs. computer engineers vs. network engineers vs. helpdesk trolls, etc. Can your average programmer design a chip? Can your average chip designer program a GUI?
To view it another way, the age of the Renaissance man is well over... instead, we get the age of the specialized man, with more expertise in a chosen profession than any renasissance man could hope for.
-T
Rapid decline of oil production will start around 2012. The growth of an economy only works because we have lots of easy energy around.
If current consumption trends continue, the world will be having a serious energy problem. The world isn't going to end - we'll just start burning coal for electricity. So much for the environment, though. This is a direct effect of the current price of gasoline - high consumption. Much more effort should be put into higher efficiency alternatives and new means to generate large quantities of mobile energy.
I have no problem with people driving SUVs, but you should have to PAY for that luxury. I pay about $0.90/l (~$4/gallon) for premium in Canada. We are an net oil exporting nation, unlike the US. I would be much more confortable with a price about twice that - but how many americans are going to handle a $8/gallon price tag at the pump? That'd be no big deal with a 80mpg hybrid.
What does ANY of this have to do with the topic? I'd put big bets on technologies that allow for teleconferncing, remote work, etc. Telecommunications are likely going to become very valuable as they allow for productive work without much worker mobility. Likewise, technologies related to the more efficient combustion of energy are going to take off. The current model of north american society, commuting, etc - is going to end. It is just not sustainable.
Bonus to living here though - the US military machine will make sure the effects are felt everywhere else first. Another observation is Russia holds some of the largest untapped reserves of petroleum.
But hey, don't panic.
..don't panic
Comment removed based on user account deletion
what will happen to email spamming and telemarketing.
If they continue growing at the current rate something must happen before 2012, be it a change in their dirty practices or some clever politician (about time) outlawing them.
My dad has always tried to use the newest speech recognition programs, but they are never any good? Why? My dad is a geek in denial. Like any other self-respecting geek, he types faster than he talks. Hell, I type faster than I think. Example:
Hands: http://slashdot.org
Mind: No slashdotting, must write program...
Mind: Oooh, new kernel!
...often at a hefty fee. I was taking my car into the shop one morning and on the way, the check engine light came on, so I asked them to plug their little handheld unit into it, and they obliged (for free, because I'd be paying quite a bit for the service anyway). It took him no more than 30 seconds to tell me my oxygen sensor could be bad. I asked him how much they usually charge to do that, he told me $80. Give them a little more time to read each car, maybe say two minutes, and you've got something that'll make you $2400/hr. Let's hope Sears and Maytag aren't quite as greedy.
The troll loves you!
According to the legacy computer systems, whose calendar runs out in the year 2000, the world has already ended.
Ergonomica Auctorita Illico!
I will still have not gotten laid since the last century.
Today's CPU: 3 GHz
2012's CPU: 192 GHz
Today's RAM: 512 MB
2012's RAM: 32 GB
Today's hard disks: 200 GB
2012's hard disks: 12.5 TB
And just for fun...
Today's Quake III fps: 120 fps
2012's Quake III fps: 7,680 fps
In Soviet Russia, all your us are belong to base!
Hurd will finally be usable as a production system.
And people still won't care.
In Soviet Russia, you work for intelligent software agents.
I predict that if you are right, and "Stock ticker" commercials end up in vogue, it won't matter anyway, because most of the people watching the television programs won't be able to read the ads, since they'll be illiterate.
-- Terry
Parent Poster Found In Mad House.
No, not prediction for 2012, but was my prediction in 1992, and it came TRUE!
a terabyte is 1024 gigabytes, not 1000. the fools.
Speech recognition... hee hee hee...
Can you imagine speech recognition becoming so common it gets built into every computer?
It would be worthwhile paying for a 1U slot in a colocation facility, just to have a machine that has no purpose whatsoever, except to randomly scream out at the highest volume on it's sound card "SHUTDOWN NOW!" to the other machines...
-- Terry
Nothing so elaborate is needed. Americans already tune out reality with just a simple two-dimensional display device, with zero interactivity to boot.
Anyone remember Fahrenheit 451?
"I plunk the children in school nine days out of ten. I put up with them when they come home three days a month; it's not bad at all. You heave them into the 'parlour' and turn the switch. It's like washing clothes; stuff laundry in and slam the lid." Mrs. Bowles tittered. "They'd just as soon kick as kiss me. Thank God, I can kick back!"
The women showed their tongues, laughing.
--grendel drago
Laws do not persuade just because they threaten. --Seneca
I looked at his 1992 predictions, and I would give him a fat "F". He gave himself a B. What a pompous ass. I didn't even bother reading his 2012 predictions.
I read his stuff once in a while in the Mercury, and he's consistently a case in point that Mercury, despite their location in the middle of Silicon Valley, has weak if not clueless coverage of Technology.
As for Langberg, he should just stick to fluff coverage like reviewing Palm Tungsten with words like: "I like Tungsten because it fits my small little hand," or "the review sample they sent me had a small crack in it."
Muckraker he sure ain't.
Cystalis for the NES (which came out in 1990) said the end would be on October 1, 1997. Chrono Trigger for the SNES said Dec. 31 1999. Neither were correct, which is strange as video games are usually correct about these things.
You haven't been paying attention for the last 20 years, have you?
That should teach you, bringing a cellphone to the cinema!
Say no to software patents.
...if you have a job where you can call in sick and not be summoned back (e.g., an ER doctor), you have no business taking a telephone into a movie theater in the first place.
You cannot apply a technological solution to a sociological problem. (Edwards' Law)
.. the Prisoner meets Adam Smith.
Or to put it another way a Bill Gates wetdream.
In Soviet Russia, you're still BORING.
Not as boring as you, apparently, given the almost total lack of responses to your trolls. You get plenty of redundant moderations, but nobody cares enough about what you say to respond.
Last time I checked a 4.7 GB DVD can easily hold two hours films. So a 1TB HD gives you about 400 hours DVD quality video.
Prediction 1
My pre-prediction: His predictions assume that the Nasdaq investment boom continues. I don't think so. I think that we are going to have a slow-slide recession, as businesses are raided for taxes to support war after war, and the IMF, having drained the third world, ceases to bring in "investment" and cheap goods. Here's what I think instead:
Prediction 2
Much colder winters in Europe and America, and drought. Our fuel usage *increases* for winter. But the harder conditions result in reduced expenditures for luxuries, including automobiles. A corresponding shift is *beginning*, either into the cities or into the country, away from suburbs. So fuel usage peaks about this time.
Prediction 3
We see more and more obvious problems associated with overpopulation, but it becomes apparent that it will not continue: the population crests and starts to fall. AIDS, with still no true wonderdrug, begins to take its toll, as does starvation and (especially) war.
Prediction 4
The fall of the technology information sector in America, just as industry fell to foreign competition. Essentially, we remain uncompetitive in America, due to the high taxes and continual war, and other peaceful countries eat our cake. That doesn't mean our programmers disappear; they just start to do other things. Some emmigrate; others redirect their efforts towards...
Prediction 5
single-application networkable computers. Essentially, the day of the PC is not over, but it is only useful for entertainment and typing. You want to get something printed? Plug your data card through the smart printer. It handles the rest. Step by step, smart "labor saving devices" are designed and built -- true labor saving devices. Those bread machines were just ahead of their time, and more gadget than useful. But automobile computers, for example, will improve, and tell you when and where a new, unusual noise is coming from *before* the car breaks down. You go to the automechanic, pay $500, and he installs it on your *old* car, too. But they won't be powered on pentiums. They'll be powered on cheap RISC computers, or 8051-XAs, or something else like that. Cheap, slow, but specialized enough that you'll never know it's slow.
Correct Horse Battery Staple: 72 bits of entropy. Enter "Correct H" into google. When it generates the phrase, that's
Leave your phone at home?
But...but...but, what if I get an emergency call during the movie?!
that's my birthday
You won't be born for another 10 years?
I think we made it okay.
Duh. The melted all the Termiator technology to prevent the creation of Skynet. Thank god for that whiny brat.
Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-machine communication.
You'll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment -- information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built.
Why isn't the machine smart enough to self-adjust?
I don't want my appliances on the internet. Sorry for sounding paranoid, but I don't want my household habits monitored by other people.
Mike of 2002,
Dont predict that "Reliable speech recognition" will be researched fully by 2012.
Do mention that time travel will be available.
Regards,
Mike Langberg of 2012.
p.s. Do this to allow I to get that A we, you.. um, I have always dreamed of.
p.s.s. Turn the oven off, and let the cat out of the house on Nov 25, 2009.
We've heard about them for years but nothing really seems to be happening. Then The Air Car is much more interesting: http://www.theaircar.com/
That was classic intercourse.... ...so errr, thanks.
You tell your boss you've got a mobile phone... and you tell him the number? Fool.
Umm... isn't that what you're doing now? Duh.
Good idea to leave it at home anyway just so it won't be confiscated as you walk in the door.
I don't actually exist.
RFIDs on clothing? Wouldnt that make it easier for the people to steal stuff if the cashier element was eliminated? So cashiers will logically have to be turned into security guards in order to watch you. So stores become more intrusive in spying on you.
No. You'd have a regular register set up for people who want to pay cash, and for those with an approved credit card, they can walk through a lane with a barrier, and as soon as it validates you, it lets you out.
mogorific carpentry experiments
think so? think again: Welcome To Skynet
Having every device connected to the Internet is rather unlikely for one reason I discovered a few months ago: IPv6, which is required for this to work, will get nowhere. Why?
Because ISPs make a lot of money rationing out the limited range of IPv4 addresses available to the world. As more people and devices get connected to the Internet, the higher the prices for IPv4 addresses will get. IPSs would rather die than lose out on the massive cash flow that results from controlling access to limited IP resources. Allowing a new protocol which allows everyone on the planet to have as many IP addresses as they want will kill the cash cow, and it just isn't going to happen any time soon.
The comment in the article about there being fewer ads due to a viwers ability to fast forward past them makes me wonder... Isn't it inevitable that broadcasters and advertisers try to bring in laws to prevent this? Even if all TV goes subscription or PPV, there will still be advertising, simply because it makes more money for the broadcaster. A good example is Sky TV in the UK. I used to pay £34.00 per month untill I realised there were 20 minutes of adverts per hour! Effectively Sky was getting paid twice for the airtime, by me and by the advertisers. This is the way of the future and broadcasters will not allow PVRs to stop this. Could the fact that Sky have developed and launched their own PVR called Sky+ (which has software that can be changed remotely, without getting the owners permission) be a sign of things to came as broadcasters try to take control of viewing habits?
We already have a form on enforced advertising with DVDs that won't allow you to fast forward past the trailers. IMHO this will happen with television as well, no doubt backed up with laws to ensure PVRs take their instructions from the broadcaster and not from the viewer.
I was going to post a comment about Julian Simon but IExplorer crashed when I clicked "Submit".
Normally that's not a problem as I have learned long ago to copy the entire comment (double-confirmed as I actually cut then paste it back in) I've just typed before clicking "Submit" because there are many problems that occur (one of them is that IExplorer doesn't remember what you entered when you hit the "Back" button when you get the "Slow down Cowboy!" screen.)
Anyhoo, IE is too damned stupid to copy its cut-and-paste text to the system clipboard until, presumably, one of its windows loses focus. IE crashes. Text lost. I want more MS quality in MY applications!
Hopefully that will be the year that the Neverwinter Nights Linux client is released. Anything before that is just icing on the cake.
First, as already ponted out in serveral comments; predicting that exsiting, popular, yet still new, technologies will spread, is hardly predicting.
... get a call from the repair center .. washing machine is using too much hot water .. information the washing machine has sent through the Net .. back to the factory where it was built
:-P
However, I see serveral lacks, many of which relate to privacy, which is arguable a big issue these days:
Well, as more and more machines become 'self-aware' in terms of maintenance (I rode in a taxi - Mercedes - in which the display flashed 'BRAKES NEED MAINTENANCE. VISIT SERVICE CENTER' Hmm..), the scenario is easy to imagine. However, I doubt they'll do more than tell you. They will perhaps offer to arrange for someone to call you up - but only on your request. Imagine spam emitting from this - "You're running ouf of [...] soon, would you like to try the new [...]?". This phone-home stuff is so upopular that even MS Windows XP doens't do it without asking you. "Word 2000 crashed for no apparent reason. Send report?".. Microsoft, folks...
Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are, thanks to wireless phones even tinier than what's available today and other devices with built-in GPS locators.
Tinier? It's going to be difficult to make anything much smaller than my Nokia 8310 that will still be useful - I doubt it. More features in the same sized unit, sure, but smaller?
GPS? The feature may be present for locate nearest, routeplanning etc - but publishing it?
Sure, for purposes, like, Are any of my friends in the neighborhood so we can join up for lunch? But no way it will happen without the consent of the friend. I also see the build in opportunity to have the device lie - ex. be able to answer "Office" if you don't need to let your girlfriend that you are in the lingerie store at the mall - or other places less innocent.
The predicted controversy on access to the 'presence' people will not be that big of a deal. If you call in sick and go wherever you go, and you boss calls/'locate's you, you better answer "at home".
You'll be able to specify how you wish to be reached: by text if you're busy, by voice or video if you're free.
Yes! Let's have it! I've been waiting for this for years. I can reject a call seven times, and pick it up the eight time and - to the amusement of other participants at the meeting - say "Mother, I am in a meeting, I will call you back in an hour.". And the worst part? She does know how to send SMS/texts - she just doesn't want to have her cellphone on at home (?!).
Stores without doors will rely on RFID
Sure. I saw this on a trade fair two years ago. It'll happend anytime the RFIDs become affordable, which they do now, and the systems has passed real-world application hassels.
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows,
Uh, no. Everybody will pull whatever they want to watch down their (real) broadband connection, as soon af we get rid of those wuzz <2 mbit DSL toys.
conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won't pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button
This is hardly news, much less a prediction. Sophisticated product placement, onset ads (like in sports) and pay-per-view is the financing of tomorrow.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
I doubt it. And I don't see the real-world application, letting out for people with disabilities.
While it may happen, for the sake of happening, the more likely thing to happen, is that user interfaces become more intutive and intelligent. In the given gas-station example it is more likely that the computer will flash a low-gas warning somewhere, and upon being asked to do so, using a set of thumb buttons, will offer driving instructions to the nearest gasstation, while not diverting too much from the route.
That was more like $2 that two cents. I'll make it my 1.000.000 turkish lires then
if your boss uses it to find out you are not sick and actually going to see Star Wars 3, then you'll hate it.
If I have to lie to my boss about going to see Star Wars 3, then I'll already hate it. That's what "I'm not telling you" personal days are for.
The survival of the human race is dependent upon the human race, not the activity of celestial bodies--until the Sun goes to red giant around 5 billion years hence.
That does not, however, mean that we can or should ignore the effects of the activity of celestial bodies upon the Earth.
Astrology works.
Aliens will colonize earth according to Chris Carter.
Here's how I would grade his 2012 predictions:
Appliances: D
Appliances may do self-diagnosis, and there might even be some with option
to "phone home" but few people will avail themselves of it for several
reasons:
1. Too much bother to run the wiring and too expensive to do it with
wireless.
2. Too expensive to put in the machine in the first place, and most
appliances are reliable enough it's not worth it --- people will
opt for the cheaper ones.
IM: A
I think you're dead on with IM, both having it and the controversy.
RFID: F
There might be a variation on the self-scan checkouts that are happening
already, but you won't be able to just walk out the door and have things
charged to you. No one in their right mind would allow that sort of free
access to their bank account. You will have to go through a checkout
confirmation process of some sort. I would give it a C, but you
specifically said "walk now, pay later" and that's the part that I think
simply won't happen ever even if it's technologically possible.
Prime Time: B
I'm already there, though only with 1/10th the disk space. I expect I'll
probably be in the terabyte range in about 5 years. Rather than seeing
advertising disappear as a result, however, I think you'll see a shift to
product placement and creation of ads that are actually entertaining in
their own right, such as the old Taster's Choice serial ads, or the BMW
videos they're doing at the moment (though not that lavish).
You could be watching Friends, with a little "Pampers" ad on the bottom. This would allow for even more commercial time, and they could sell the time to sync to various moments in a program. (e.g Rachel is playing with the baby, roll the Pampers ad. They are in the coffeehouse, roll the Starbucks ad)
And all I'd have to do to block ads is take a strip of black construction paper and tape it to the bottom of the screen. Voila! Uninterrupted commercial-free TV!
And no TiVo hacking needed, either!
Then suddenly black construction paper is banned by the DMCA...
Cheers,
Ethelred
Everyone wants to be Ethelred. Even I want to be Ethelred.
Actually since the the singularity is coming in 30 or so years, we won't really have to worry about the Unix clocks.
Why not fork?
So here are my five big ideas adjusted by The Guv'na for how technology will reshape our daily regime in 2012:
The Internet is everywhere -- and a religion.
Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-government communication. A minority religion has appeared that worships the internet, and is rapidly growing thanks to favours and funds from the US government and corporations.
You'll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying you're gonna screw up the internal sensors with all that fetishwear and that your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment -- information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built, and several marketing corporations.
All present and accounted for -- always.
Instant messaging is popular, in part, because IM software tells you which of your friends are online waiting to chat, and relays all messaging to the government's "carnivore" database, though this is strenuously denied. This concept, formally known as ``presence,'' will be extended to all forms of electronic communication.
Family, friends, government agencies and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are, thanks to wireless phones even tinier than what's available today and other devices with built-in GPS locators. You'll be able to specify how you wish to be reached: by text if you're busy, by voice or video if you're free. Between now and 2012, expect major controversy about the government, employers, schools and advertisers having access to your ``presence.''
Walk now, pay later.
Stores without doors will rely on RFID, or radio-frequency identification, tags to keep track of staff, inventory and payment. These tiny semiconductors communicate a small amount of information, such as a product serial number, when queried by inexpensive transmitter/receivers. Only recently selling for several dollars, RFID chips should cost only a few cents next year and will be smaller than a grain of rice.
In 2012, RFID chips will sell for less than a penny and be printed onto packaging and price tags -- the beginning of the end for cash registers. You walk into a store, put what you want in a bag and walk out the door. An RFID transmitter/receiver in the entryway instantly totals up your purchases and makes a deduction from the RFID credit card in your wallet, and tells the pentagon what you purchased. If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.
Prime time is your time.
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming and unskippable advertisements, determined by your purchasing and viewing habits.
Except for special events such as the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards, no one will watch TV shows at the time they are transmitted, and conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won't pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button. Major broadcast networks and traditional prime-time programming will be fading, with most ad-free entertainment sold through either a monthly subscription or a pay-per-view fee.
Finally, we can swear at our computers and they will "understand" us, relaying our comments to Microsoft's Customer Experience Improvement Program.
I'm recycling a prediction from 1992 that didn't come true this year but just might happen by 2012: Reliable speech recognition will allow computers, phones and household appliances to understand our spoken commands and inform the government of our mutterings when we are reading the news.
{end edited portions}
Ok so some of those might be tongue-in-cheek, but I still say it'll be closer! Who knows, I might just be revisiting this post myself in 2012... Spooky.
Ali
Ph33r m3!!!
In Soviet Russia, 2012 predicts you!
The fourth prediction, about customizing primetime, won't come true. Or at least will be about as common as electric cars are now (the exception versus the rule). The hollywood people have been trying to put rental places like blockbuster out of business since they're inception. I'm telling you this isn't going to prevelent any time soon. As for devices that store shows and movies on a hard drive that won't be very common either. People still feel the need to archive every episode of their favorite shows on some sort of media for easy storage. Not to mention the always-resourceful pirates trying to get all these things for free. Remember that short-lived version of DVD called divx (not the encoding scheme)? You bought the movie and could only watch it a few times, or a for a few days or something like that. Never took off. Cable boxes won't change very quickly. Even the new digital box I have seems rather badly made and old technology, and it's new. I expect it will have changed very little between now and 2012. It will of course still be "just around the corner". This is because there's little to motivation to improve the boxes. No competition == no innovation. Unless the cable industry is reformed in some manner to rectify this. Also free TV isn't going anywhere. There will always be people who refuse to pay the local 'evil' mega-corp a fee just to watch the latest sitcom. I would like to have seen some predictions of the security concerns that went into all this new Internet-related technology. Will hackers be able to get data via a security hole in my MS washing machine? Will houses come equiped with a firewall? What about incompatibilities? What if MS controls the protocol to the washer/dryer while oracle runs the microwave/toaster racket? Will I have to update everything like all the stupid clocks I have to reset at daylight savings time? One detail he forgot to take into account but I'm sure will be relavent: by 2012 there will be a lot of baby boomers in their late 50s/60s/70s, and they'll all be living a really really long time. Will this adversly affect the rest of us? I would say yes.
"UNIX is very simple, it just needs a genius to understand its simplicity." -Dennis Ritchie
First thought: 2012 as a year is as imaginary as 1984. But don't worry.
Minimal intervention---not no intervention. That simple, subtle difference is all that is required to keep humans in control.
No blame. All you're doing is exploring what could be, and thinking about it so that those of us concerned about the present don't have to (all that much...)
One word. Pervasive. An important word to understand.
Yep. Laziness is good. Leave what can be left to machines to machines, and leave the proper thinking to the humans.
I wouldn't be suprised if it happened today.
Already on its way. This is perfectly natural, and has, of course, happened with every medium of communicaition that I can think of. (Basically, people learn to get the most mileage out of any communication medium that they are offered)
Keep in mind the importance of being able to switch these things off. Privacy must always have its place.
Yep.
But it made great fun for the tabloid journalists
Don't bet on that. Letting the rest of the world decide what you want to watch has its uses (it saves you the effort of having to decide...)
Don't we do that already... (e.g. You F*****G piece of S**T!!? Why don't you F*****G well work?)
John_Chalisque
-Reid
Just because you can circumvent presence, doesn't mean it doesn't exist and/or affect you.
So you leave your phone at home. What if you need someone else to know your presence for that time you are supposed to be at work (or any other noble reason to skip work). Do you put your boss and any others in a "privacy" list?
What about when you go back to work, and your boss is trying to locate you, and you have them blocked? What will they see, "user offline"?
That's too obvious and/or troublesome. I prefer to keep my privacy. Why would you want everyone to know exactly where you are at all times?
You can't surprise them that way.
Ogre
"The more you suffer, the more it shows you really care, right?" -Offspring
Unfortunately, it seems that journalists who write about the internet are still AOL/MSN newbies who think that AOL IS the Internet. Somehow I don't think that AOL/TW is going to innovate as much as these folks hope. Who really wants the Internet EVERYWHERE. Geez, do these people have a real life (outside of computer journalism) or care about privacy and security issues?
Remember the movie, "Back to the Future"? Yeah it was a great movie built on the concept that people aren't necessarily greedy in every effort put forth in life. Our problem is that almost everyone out there wants to make a buck off of their "hot coffee" and all that extra legal work delays products, delays the development of new technology and the good technology usually lands in the lap of some fat bastard politician who's receiving generous kickbacks from other companies to either delay the use of it or hasten it. Its almost the year, Two Thousand and frickin' Three! Where are the frickin' flying cars and hover boards already???
-- Game Developers: Stop porting badly-textured games from crappy console systems!
Actually I'd really like to ride on a zepplin.
Wouldn't that be a bit chiily?
I'd rather ride in a Zepplin myself.
(Actually, I'd rather ride in a starship, or, better yet, pilot a starship.)
Those who sacrifice security to condemn liberty deserve to repeat history or something. - Benjamin Santayana
In 2101, war was beginning.
I'm recycling a prediction from 1992 that didn't come true this year but just might happen by 2012: Reliable speech recognition will allow computers, phones and household appliances to understand our spoken commands.
Flying alone down an unfamiliar interplanetary route, it won't seem to odd to say, ``Open the pod bay doors HAL'' and for the computer to reply ``I'm sorry DAVE, I can't do that''
1. If you go see Star Wars 3, you are stupid anyway. I just broke down and rented that last piece of tripe, which I didn't go see in the theater out of protest because of Episode I. It wasn't even worth renting.
2. If your phone is on in the theater, you need your ass kicked anyway.
3. If you are dumb enough to sneak out of work to go see a movie, you deserve to be fired.
Maybe you were joking, but I guess a lot of the /. crowd thinks this way. Sad, really.
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
>>if your boss uses it to find out you are not
>>sick and actually going to see Star Wars 3,
>>then you'll hate it.
>Leave your phone at home?
Leave your phone at work.
--Joe
I cannot overemphasize the importance of good grammar.
What a crock. I could easily overemphasize the importance of good
grammar. For example, I could say: "Bad grammar is the leading cause
of slow, painful death in North America," or "Without good grammar, the
United States would have lost World War II."
-- Dave Barry, "An Utterly Absurd Look at Grammar"
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