Yeah, yeah, there will still be niches where people will be needed, but that's just it, niches. In the past one large manufacturing plant could employ thousands, or even tens of thousands of workers.
And people looking back at history seem to gloss over the number of niches that have always existed. How many niches existed at the height of steam power to keep a locomotive on the tracks and running?
With respect to the trades there wasn't just one type of woodworker unless you lived in a small town. A person that specialized in cabinet building would have a completely different set of tools and skillsets than someone that built homes. One person could probably do both but would do neither as well as the people well trained to do one.
100 years ago a small town doctor was the Ob, Surgeon, General practitioner and mortician. I'm amazed at the number of sub specialties my wife works with. You have people that specialize in pediatric nephrology. They spend their entire career ONLY working with kids kidneys. Other than med school they have none of the same training as a orthopedic sports surgeon. And for each of those doctors there are dozens more specialized supporting staff. Directly you have nurses and the such.
Indirectly you have the people that built the tools used in the specific industries. The medical hardware and tools that a surgeon uses are different than those that a nephrologist uses. There are hundreds if not thousands of engineers building, testing and working on each of the respective tools.
As the world becomes more diverse the number niche of jobs increases dramatically. It's not like you go to college, become one of 5 professions and do that. I'm one of 50 engineers at a single facility making a single product for a single industry and only 10% or so of my job may overlap with all of those other people. We have cleaning people that support the office building, mowers that mow the lawn, cafeteria workers, the guy that runs the on site gym, the marketing people to sell our product.
And this is for a boring every day product that you wouldn't think twice about. That single device in a single niche industry pays the salary of easily 1000+ people. Multiply that by every little thing out there and it adds up quick. So no, there aren't a TON of a single profession out there but the workforce is made up of a ton of little professions that add up.
That extends to the modern trades as well. I have friends that are plumbers and electricians. 90 years ago there may have been one type but you have people that specialize in residential vs industrial vs medical.
I want to know how many jobs directly or indirectly were created from the Steam engine.
How many people did the foundry employ to just make the things? How many mechanics were required to keep one running (early ones took more days off for 'maintenance' than they did running). Before the automated luber was invented someone was employed to make sure every single metal on metal part was lubricated (with catastrophic failures). You had thousands if not tens of thousands of jobs just from one technology. And just as quickly as those jobs came they started to disappear.
Trains used to be switched manually at the switch, then they made switch houses, then automated that. A brakeman was replaced with pneumatics for brakes and electrical lights for the rear lamps. People shoveling coal on board was replaced by conveyor belts. These days a small fraction of the people required to keep a steam engine running can keep a diesel one running.
Once upon a time it took 100% of humans 100% of their time to stay a live and gather enough food. Then we started to specialize. In 1987 2% of Americans farmed, and that's was the lowest number (total) since the 1800s. In 1820, when they were reported at less than 2.1 million, or about 72 percent of the American work force of 2.9 million. By 1850, farm people made up 4.9 million, or about 64 percent, of the nation's 7.7 million workers. The farm population in 1920, when the official Census data began, was nearly 32 million, or 30.2 percent of the population of 105.7 million, the report said. So we've gone from 100 to 72 to 64 to 30 to 2% of the population need to just make food to keep our species going.
How many people did horses 'automate'? If you look at the cumulative improvements at a single task how many people with sticks can a single tractor replace? Think of how many 'jobs' we could bring back if we outlawed tractors? It doesn't mean that a 'farmer' has gone away, it just means they do something different. An engineer in 2017 has had most of what an engineer did in 1917 'automated'.
Computers have been automating computer jobs since they were invented. Compilers are just "robots" that turn high level C into Assembly. I don't even write my own C any more, Simulink does a much better and consistent job at it. The autogenerated code may be a bit verbose but it's very explicit and bester right
How many more people could be employed if we rid ourselves of the water wheel? I demand future generations have the opportunity to walk in a circle milling our grain.
I switched away from Apple/OS X ~6 years ago. Mainly use Windows for work and Linux with different DEs for personal use.
I grabbed a MacMini to digitize video because everything was plug and play. (And old enough that it was cheap to do so). There was no command line. I opened iMovie. Plugged in the Firewire and it just saw the tape deck.
The OS still feels like I'm not trying to fight it all the time. "Oh, wifi's not working. Lets see if Systemd has anything to say about that" or my new favorite "Windows 10 has 15 different ways to set the same thing". (Try to figure out what control panel to use to set trackpad speed. Is it mouse, trackpad, the Synaptics control panel, the Logitech control panel for my mouse?)
Offers RSS feeds for any search you want to define. If you're looking to buy something it's easy to setup to get notifications when something comes up.
I have an ME and I spend my days programming. Everyone in my group is as ME or EE and all we do is make control algorithms in Simulink. Write low level C for compiling that to our embedded systems. Python for the dSpace hardware in the loop testing.
I don't use any of the Thermo, Statics, Dynamics, or 90% of the classes I took. For most of the stuff I do day to day (and are overwhelmed with work doing) I would love a 15-17 year old high school student that was interested in cars to take on as an apprentice.
This obsession with degrees is fairly recent as far as human history goes, everything has been 'on the job training' back through hunting mammoths. You took the adolecents out to learn on the job and they either did good or found another 'career'.
I work remotely and need to be at a few different sites a few times per month.
For ~$50/night at AirBNB I can get a quiet room, a place to sleep and no distractions.
A hotel in the ~$50-$100/night range has a hall that smells like weed. People wandering up and down the halls at all hours of the night and hit or miss bed bugs.
They do it every day all over the world with excellent results.
They also do it all over the world with bad results. Truck companies are adding 'auto dock' functions to newer trucks because damage to loading docks happens constantly.
Your mistake is assuming a 'farmer' is some guy that has been farming since birth like his father and grand father before him.
Corporate megafarms are the new customers that JD is catering to. I wouldn't be shocked if they do have a TaaS in place already. They have service contracts that say if a tractor is down for more than N hours JD reimburses them.
It's the MO of most heavy equipment these days in mines and on big construction projects.
The Leaf does a bit better in winter than a comparable gasser. The battery has a bit of nice heft down low. My wife's leaf with snow tires did great in 3 MI winters.
People were begging GM to keep their EV1s. The market that liked them really liked them. GM said "no" and crushed them.
They could have given the EVs to college campuses and thrown some "prize money" at improving them annually and been way ahead of Tesla by now. Look at what everyone got out of a mere $1M in DARPA prize money (that they didn't even give out the first year).
PulseAudio is not perfect, but it is improving, and is itself a big improvement on older sounds systems that often didn't work at all for many setups. Systemd is not perfect but it is a huge improvement on the old script init that couldn't handle modern features like hotplugging devices and sleep mode.
How is my FreeBSD desktop handling all those 'modern features' without PA or systemd?
The apprentice perspective is an educational theory of apprenticeship concerning the process of learning through physical integration into the practices associated with the subject, such as workplace training. By developing similar performance to other practitioners, an apprentice will come to understand the tacit (informally taught) duties of the position. In the process of creating this awareness, the learner also affect their environment; as they are accepted by master practitioners, their specific talents and contributions within the field are taken into account and integrated into the overall practice.
Actually the opposite, just like with building houses. It's easier to outsource architecture and engineering than it is to outsource the guy hammering the nails.
I'm not sure if trade electricians have specialized track for low voltage applications but you're not going to be able to outsource the guy punching down the ethernet ends. There is a lot of work that needs to be done that requires specialized training before a higher level person can take over.
As soon as you get a machine's IPMI online and pingable someone else sitting anywhere in the world can take over.
You're right. There's a good chance that it's going to be written by someone with a ME or EE background in controls. Most likely in Simulink. The job descriptions back this up.
Congratulations companies. You have now figured out that 4 year degrees are not on the job training seminars.
My local high school has an "IT" track that is very hands on approach to a sysadmin style job without the college. There are multiple job positions across all industries that are better served with a hands on approach to learning just like plumbing, electrical, pipe fitting, etc.
When you build a house you don't need 50 architects and engineers. You need a handful and then another handful of people that know how to put hammer to wood. I don't know why people think that IT, coding, etc is any different.
Slashdot Mirror
And isn't even that bad as a laptop machine.
AwesomeWM is 'OS' independent so my interface is the same.
NVidia has drivers.
Wifi and Sound work fine.
I had an easier time getting sound working in FreeBSD than I did with Debian and PulseAudio (who designed that ....)
Yeah, yeah, there will still be niches where people will be needed, but that's just it, niches. In the past one large manufacturing plant could employ thousands, or even tens of thousands of workers.
And people looking back at history seem to gloss over the number of niches that have always existed. How many niches existed at the height of steam power to keep a locomotive on the tracks and running?
With respect to the trades there wasn't just one type of woodworker unless you lived in a small town. A person that specialized in cabinet building would have a completely different set of tools and skillsets than someone that built homes. One person could probably do both but would do neither as well as the people well trained to do one.
100 years ago a small town doctor was the Ob, Surgeon, General practitioner and mortician. I'm amazed at the number of sub specialties my wife works with. You have people that specialize in pediatric nephrology. They spend their entire career ONLY working with kids kidneys. Other than med school they have none of the same training as a orthopedic sports surgeon. And for each of those doctors there are dozens more specialized supporting staff. Directly you have nurses and the such.
Indirectly you have the people that built the tools used in the specific industries. The medical hardware and tools that a surgeon uses are different than those that a nephrologist uses. There are hundreds if not thousands of engineers building, testing and working on each of the respective tools.
As the world becomes more diverse the number niche of jobs increases dramatically. It's not like you go to college, become one of 5 professions and do that. I'm one of 50 engineers at a single facility making a single product for a single industry and only 10% or so of my job may overlap with all of those other people. We have cleaning people that support the office building, mowers that mow the lawn, cafeteria workers, the guy that runs the on site gym, the marketing people to sell our product.
And this is for a boring every day product that you wouldn't think twice about. That single device in a single niche industry pays the salary of easily 1000+ people. Multiply that by every little thing out there and it adds up quick. So no, there aren't a TON of a single profession out there but the workforce is made up of a ton of little professions that add up.
That extends to the modern trades as well. I have friends that are plumbers and electricians. 90 years ago there may have been one type but you have people that specialize in residential vs industrial vs medical.
I want to know how many jobs directly or indirectly were created from the Steam engine.
How many people did the foundry employ to just make the things? How many mechanics were required to keep one running (early ones took more days off for 'maintenance' than they did running). Before the automated luber was invented someone was employed to make sure every single metal on metal part was lubricated (with catastrophic failures). You had thousands if not tens of thousands of jobs just from one technology. And just as quickly as those jobs came they started to disappear.
Trains used to be switched manually at the switch, then they made switch houses, then automated that. A brakeman was replaced with pneumatics for brakes and electrical lights for the rear lamps. People shoveling coal on board was replaced by conveyor belts. These days a small fraction of the people required to keep a steam engine running can keep a diesel one running.
There's a simple solution: Boycott buying food from farmers that use them.
When did roofing become automated?
When pneumatic nailers were faster and more accurate than a guy swinging a hammer.
Once upon a time it took 100% of humans 100% of their time to stay a live and gather enough food. Then we started to specialize.
In 1987 2% of Americans farmed, and that's was the lowest number (total) since the 1800s. In 1820, when they were reported at less than 2.1 million, or about 72 percent of the American work force of 2.9 million. By 1850, farm people made up 4.9 million, or about 64 percent, of the nation's 7.7 million workers. The farm population in 1920, when the official Census data began, was nearly 32 million, or 30.2 percent of the population of 105.7 million, the report said. So we've gone from 100 to 72 to 64 to 30 to 2% of the population need to just make food to keep our species going.
How many people did horses 'automate'? If you look at the cumulative improvements at a single task how many people with sticks can a single tractor replace? Think of how many 'jobs' we could bring back if we outlawed tractors? It doesn't mean that a 'farmer' has gone away, it just means they do something different. An engineer in 2017 has had most of what an engineer did in 1917 'automated'.
Computers have been automating computer jobs since they were invented. Compilers are just "robots" that turn high level C into Assembly. I don't even write my own C any more, Simulink does a much better and consistent job at it. The autogenerated code may be a bit verbose but it's very explicit and bester right
"an apparatus using or applying mechanical power and having several parts, each with a definite function and together performing a particular task."
So a Centrifugal governor? Stealing jobs of engineers since 1788.
The hydraulics of a tractor plow? I demand my son a be able to have the opportunity to manually put all of those plows in the ground.
How many more people could be employed if we rid ourselves of the water wheel? I demand future generations have the opportunity to walk in a circle milling our grain.
I switched away from Apple/OS X ~6 years ago. Mainly use Windows for work and Linux with different DEs for personal use.
I grabbed a MacMini to digitize video because everything was plug and play. (And old enough that it was cheap to do so). There was no command line. I opened iMovie. Plugged in the Firewire and it just saw the tape deck.
The OS still feels like I'm not trying to fight it all the time. "Oh, wifi's not working. Lets see if Systemd has anything to say about that" or my new favorite "Windows 10 has 15 different ways to set the same thing". (Try to figure out what control panel to use to set trackpad speed. Is it mouse, trackpad, the Synaptics control panel, the Logitech control panel for my mouse?)
Offers RSS feeds for any search you want to define. If you're looking to buy something it's easy to setup to get notifications when something comes up.
I have an ME and I spend my days programming. Everyone in my group is as ME or EE and all we do is make control algorithms in Simulink. Write low level C for compiling that to our embedded systems. Python for the dSpace hardware in the loop testing.
I don't use any of the Thermo, Statics, Dynamics, or 90% of the classes I took. For most of the stuff I do day to day (and are overwhelmed with work doing) I would love a 15-17 year old high school student that was interested in cars to take on as an apprentice.
This obsession with degrees is fairly recent as far as human history goes, everything has been 'on the job training' back through hunting mammoths. You took the adolecents out to learn on the job and they either did good or found another 'career'.
Hypercard then TI-BASIC.
I guess you and I stay in a different class of hotel.
Absolutely. To get near the same experience as with AirBNB I could stay in a $160/night hotel.
Now I'm looking at $640 wk vs $200 wk.
I work remotely and need to be at a few different sites a few times per month.
For ~$50/night at AirBNB I can get a quiet room, a place to sleep and no distractions.
A hotel in the ~$50-$100/night range has a hall that smells like weed. People wandering up and down the halls at all hours of the night and hit or miss bed bugs.
They do it every day all over the world with excellent results.
They also do it all over the world with bad results. Truck companies are adding 'auto dock' functions to newer trucks because damage to loading docks happens constantly.
pfSense works just fine. Depending on their internet connection get a newer CPU with AES-NI and you should have no problem routing all the traffic.
You mean like XBMC -> OSXBMC -> Plex.
Your mistake is assuming a 'farmer' is some guy that has been farming since birth like his father and grand father before him.
Corporate megafarms are the new customers that JD is catering to. I wouldn't be shocked if they do have a TaaS in place already. They have service contracts that say if a tractor is down for more than N hours JD reimburses them.
It's the MO of most heavy equipment these days in mines and on big construction projects.
The Leaf does a bit better in winter than a comparable gasser. The battery has a bit of nice heft down low. My wife's leaf with snow tires did great in 3 MI winters.
That's where the market is.
People were begging GM to keep their EV1s. The market that liked them really liked them. GM said "no" and crushed them.
They could have given the EVs to college campuses and thrown some "prize money" at improving them annually and been way ahead of Tesla by now. Look at what everyone got out of a mere $1M in DARPA prize money (that they didn't even give out the first year).
Caterpillar (sponsors of CMU's Red Team) has self driving dump trucks. Uber came in and poached all of CMU's autonomous grad students & teachers. Pittsburgh is the SV of autonomous vehicles.
GM could have given a budget rounding error to sponsor an EV prize in 1999 and been way ahead of the game by now.
Write software after/before work.
BSD license it and sell support/customizations. When you're making more on the side than your main job, quit your main job.
PulseAudio is not perfect, but it is improving, and is itself a big improvement on older sounds systems that often didn't work at all for many setups. Systemd is not perfect but it is a huge improvement on the old script init that couldn't handle modern features like hotplugging devices and sleep mode.
How is my FreeBSD desktop handling all those 'modern features' without PA or systemd?
Sooner or later, everything old is new again.
Educational theory of apprenticeship
The apprentice perspective is an educational theory of apprenticeship concerning the process of learning through physical integration into the practices associated with the subject, such as workplace training. By developing similar performance to other practitioners, an apprentice will come to understand the tacit (informally taught) duties of the position. In the process of creating this awareness, the learner also affect their environment; as they are accepted by master practitioners, their specific talents and contributions within the field are taken into account and integrated into the overall practice.
Actually the opposite, just like with building houses. It's easier to outsource architecture and engineering than it is to outsource the guy hammering the nails.
I'm not sure if trade electricians have specialized track for low voltage applications but you're not going to be able to outsource the guy punching down the ethernet ends. There is a lot of work that needs to be done that requires specialized training before a higher level person can take over.
As soon as you get a machine's IPMI online and pingable someone else sitting anywhere in the world can take over.
You're right. There's a good chance that it's going to be written by someone with a ME or EE background in controls. Most likely in Simulink. The job descriptions back this up.
Congratulations companies. You have now figured out that 4 year degrees are not on the job training seminars.
My local high school has an "IT" track that is very hands on approach to a sysadmin style job without the college. There are multiple job positions across all industries that are better served with a hands on approach to learning just like plumbing, electrical, pipe fitting, etc.
When you build a house you don't need 50 architects and engineers. You need a handful and then another handful of people that know how to put hammer to wood. I don't know why people think that IT, coding, etc is any different.