Yes, and contrary to you, I *did* do the trouble of reading them. Only, they pertain no confirmation of your claim that it's not stochastic, nor does it substantiate your assertion that no backup is needed anymore from classical plants.
And don't complain about my post being insulting if you start being insulting in the first place, even though you then say 'maybe I worded it wrongly'. I'm a fervent proponent of free speech, but also of reciprocity, so don't start complaining you get the same treatment as you give others. "I stop here with debunking your bullshit." is where you started with language which you already should have known it was not going to be conductive of having an amicable discussion. Oh, don't tell me: in your opinion, it was merely stating an obvious fact, no doubt. Well, in reciprocity, I'm only saying an equally obvious fact. And thus:
In all honesty, you're an arrogant twit, and I think you know it. Or maybe not, with your bloated ego, but at least others know it too, seen your response(s) and the reactions you get from others in other threads. The one that is uneducated is you, AND you refuse to learn and don't even try to read anything that contradicts your set views, all in the absolute certainty that you know it best, and all the rest not, that you are an expert determining what is stochastic or not, because you claim to program and are a sailor (while questioning 'why should I be an expert in stochastic systems' when the fallacy of speaking from authority is *exactly* the fact that people that are NOT experts on the subjects act as if they do).
In short, you STILL did not provide any link that substantiates your claim about the weather not being stochastic, NOR that windmills don't need any back up anymore. Not surprising, because those assertions are untrue. I provided you the links to substantiate MY claims on the matter (one of which was to a scientific paper), but then you complain it's 'old data', while YOU didn't even give ANY data, nor provide links to papers that would indicate why the old data would be wrong. How very consistent...
You simply fail to grasp the basics of any rational debate, namely that your claims and arguments need to be substantiated, or they're basically worthless and don't amount to anything (the same is true for assertions based on your own expertise without giving proof of that expertise).
No, the parent poster is right. He's basically a troll. He ALWAYS asserts claims and conclusions with the utmost certainty, denying all other arguments, refusing to read anything that would contradict his own thoughts on the matter, yet never manages to give even the most basic reference or link to anything that would substantiate his own claims.
Indeed, he's basically a troll. He ALWAYS asserts claims and conclusions with the utmost certainty, denying all other arguments, refusing to read anything that would contradict his own thoughts on the matter, yet never manages to give even the most basic reference or link to anything that would substantiate his own claims.
I note you still did not provided a single link or reference to substantiate any of your claims. Be it recent or 'old' data. Ergo, your assertions and claims are derived from self-asserted authority (or not even that, apparently), without anything to back it up... and are thus pretty worthless in any rational debate.
You forget to mention that, apart from your last two, that didn't were relevant to the topic at hand, you posted NO links at all , let alone 'more recent' ones, that would contradict what is said in those other links.
One of the links was to a scientific paper, btw, clearly indicating the weather is a stochastic phenomenon. Your only response to it is "can't be bothered to read it, since I know it better then every one else". Or "aw, it's 10 years old, it's SO passé". Really? That's your counterargument? You do realise it's not based on refuting anything content-wise that is said in there, nor on arguments, only on your own assertion "it's not true, because I say so". Alas, not to burst your ego-bubble, but that's not a valid argument. If you realise this, then please provide your own links to recent scientific papers which claim it's NOT stochastic, as you keep claiming erroneously. You can't. You know it, and I know it. Give me your links to recent sites where it's said windturbines don't need any backup anymore these days from gas/oil/coal plants anymore. You can't. We both know it. And that's why, basically, you are just trolling, and baiting with all the 'maybe you should grasp the content'. I grasp it very well, and I also grasp you didn't and can not offer ANY proof of what you claim. And that's because you're full of bull.
If anything should be tiring, it's reactions like yours, who are clearly trollish in nature. If you didn't want to debate things based on facts and valid arguments, but just wanted to be an annoying idiot, you should have said so from the start. And if you do, then please substantiate your claims, preferably with more recent links, since you complain about older data.
I'll ask you again: put up or shut up. Show me a paper that explicitly claims the weather is NOT stochastic. Show me a reliable site where it's demonstrated windturbines do NOT need any backup anymore to compensate for load balancing.
"No I did not. As I likely know more about the stuff as you can find links." ---> appeal to authority. Are you a scientist with expertise on stochastic systems? Highly doubtful. And certainly with a self-referencing which can not be checked, it's completely worthless as an argument.
But, ok, I'm broad-minded; if you can actually prove you're such an expert on the domain in question, I'll count it as an argument with some worth. Please provide actual proof that you're such an expert as you self-profess to be. For instance, give a link to your professional career which can be crossed checked that you are in fact, that person.
If you do not want to, please realise, that then, the argument is completely worthless, just as anything said out of 'authority' or any other claims that you did not substantiate. You complain about my sources and claim I'm wrong, because you said so. You can turn it as you want, but that is what your posts boil down to. You provided nothing to back your claims up, nor did you deliver any proof of your expertise. So, what is left? Be honest.
"Did you even READ the links I gave you? No I did not."
"what is written in it, does not interest me"
I think that sums things up quite nicely, indeed. Basically, you don't want to educate yourself - throwing in an appeal to authority at that (always a weak sign), nor are you interested in any arguments that don't stroke with your biased vision.
And the weather CAN NOT be predicted precisely. There is no forecasts that can accurately predict with 100% certainty where and how much and at what time the wind will blow. It's absurd to even suggest otherwise, and hints that you really do not understand what you're talking about. In fact, it demonstrate you didn't even do the trouble of reading the links I gave, which substantiate what I say.
If you want to keep claiming the opposite, please provide me with a link where it is substantiated that one can do such a thing. You can't, period. And that's because it's impossible, BECAUSE it's stochastic in nature. Whether forecasts are ALWAYS approximations; they are the best (in a statistical way) predictions computer-simulations can offer. It's a reliance on statistics, thus (and now look again on the definition of stochastic). Here you have another link: http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/r...
Please educate yourself. It's embarrassing to look at arguments that miss even the most basic of knowledge on the subject.
Also... about the gas/coal backups for windmill-parks: this was not a suggestion or prediction, it is simply a fact: there ARE gas/coal backups for all those windmills, just *because* they are stochastic and unpredictable. Again: did you even bother to read the pages I linked to? It's explicitly mentioned there. Whether you like it or want it or not, it IS done that way. Here, I'll give you another link: http://www.aweo.org/windbackup... . What, exactly, do you not understand about it? Or are you being wilfully obtuse?
"That is a matter of math, or not? Either you fix the wrong name plate, or you fix the place where you place them. I mean: if a wind turbine is rated to yield 8MW power at a wind speed of 30feet/sec but you put it on a place where that speed is rarely reached or exceeded, it can't be the wind mills fault."
Apparently, it happens often enough. One can put the blame on everyone else, the fact remains that the actual energy most windmills deliver are de facto a lot less than promised. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new...
note that the situation won't improve, since the first windmill-parks are obviously going to be build in the best wind-covered places. Additional ones will get *less* good spots, since the best ones are already taken. So, it's not that they can't technically possibly get to their vaunted maximum, it's that they just don't, in practise. This relates to the stochastic nature of wind.
Changing the 'nameplate' to a more realistic output would indeed solve that part...well: why, then, do green sites/blogs/groups never do that? Note that this would also mean that, when they compare 100 windmills of 8MW to a nuclear plant of 800 MW, they're actually NOT using an adequate comparison, since they would need, in fact, *300* windmills for that, thus, with triple the price - and still being stochastic in nature. It's math, yes. So why does the pro-camp not apply it correctly?
"The costs are calculated quite different than you think. A guy pacing a wind farm somewhere surely knows how much energy he can expect over the year and if an investment makes sense."
Wrong. You may not be aware of this, but wind-energy is *heavily* subsidies by the state, in most countries. This, in turn, means the actually efficiency DOES NOT (or at least, far less) matter, since they don't earn directly from the cost/benefit that it delivers, but by being subsidized. As long as you can make profit with the subsidies, it doesn't really matter *how* efficient it is. The taxpayers pays for it anyway. And that's also the reason why, in countries that stop with all those huge subsidies, a lot of those wind-mill companies close doors and can't survive. In short, the whole wind-energy industrial complex is a heavily subsidised one, which only survives thanks to those subsidies (aka, money that was first derived FROM the economy, thus).
"That is wrong. If that was the case you would need for every classical plant a classical back up plant, too."
?
What ARE you talking about? A gas-powered plant does not need a backup, because it's not stochastic in nature. It has a constant, well-defined amount of energy (gas) that it can use. It can do load-balancing. Thus, it can level out the peaks and valleys of demand and supply (of energy) on short notice.
The fact you say is wrong, simply indicates you are totally unaware of the facts. They do. It's not surprising you don't know, because many like you just don't research things, but repeat what others (greens) say (and of course, they'll always ommit things that speak unfavourable of it). Here, let me give you a link: http://www.forbes.com/sites/je...
Please read up before claiming something is wrong out of hand.
"Obviously, because of the continent wide grids, wind plants can back up each other just as classical plants back up each other."
No, they can't. Because every windfarm is stochastic in nature, not just your own. This means you're basically playing statistical roulette, and *hope* it will *ALWAYS* be enough. And: WHAT 'continent wide grid'? Do you have any idea what trillions that would cost?
"I stop here with debunking your bullshit."
No, please continue, since we were just coming to the good part. As you can see - I've provided links this time - it's YOU who are
If I had mod-points left, I would give some to this post.;-) Do you mind I I take parts of it in any following post(s) in regard to the same matter? (You can do the same with anything worthwhile you might see in mine, of course). It's just that, I think the few remaining rational voices in here should do more to make the obvious flaws apparent to all. Even if a lot don't get it because of their ideologically coloured glasses, it might reach *some* people whom didn't fall in the nonsense of it completely, yet.
You know, all this is strange. It's not that I'm against alternatives *per sé*, it's just that, merely looking at it from a rational standpoint, one simply can not note the vast and inherent difficulties of trying to provide a stable energy production with systems that are stochastic by nature. I've pointed all the major criticism out there, with clear argument,s and yet, it STILL doesn't get through. It all gets rejected out of hand, and, as you say, the main and principle reason for it, is because I'm NOT going with the political-and-ecological-correct story, and even 'dare' to suggest nuclear is a more viable option. Suddenly I'm a shill, or some undercover agent of the nuclear lobby, or whatever. Ermm...no... I'm just pointing out the inherent flaws of the one system compared to the other. IF one wants to go 'alternative', one would be better of with geothermal and other less-stochastic systems. The problem there is that not every country or place can do it (and certainly not economically) - and no, a smart grid spanning the globe will not help there neither, since the same problem with it remains.
But, instead of discussing it, it' just: modding it down, claiming I'm a shill, or other non sequitur arguments. Or, like the other poster, saying: "You're actively doing damage with that shit, so fuck you and the horse that rode in on you." Well, it's either true or not, if it's not, one give counterarguments, and if it is, then, if it 'does damage', than the problem lays with the unrealistic claims being made in the first place. It's ironic, but it's actually the reverse: it's this over-optimistic, PC-correct 'green policy' story of windmills and solarpanels where were basically wasting our money on (if the goal is stable energy deliverance) that is actually damaging. Not only to the acceptance and implementation of other systems, but to modern society as a whole, in the long run. I just don't understand people who'd rather believe in a pipedream than looking at the facts, and then complain their dream is being damaged by it.
Contrary to their anti-nuclear dogmatic reaction, I have nothing against green alternatives on themselves... but you MUST look at it objectively and see what it actually delivers. There is no way anyone with a rational mind looking at this objectively, that will not note such low-energy-yielding stochastic systems can never be a good idea for delivering stable energy.
I'm actually giving several arguments, none of which you refuted. That it's your opinion it is FUD is all good and well, but that remains your opinion (which clearly was not substantiated by any arguments), and if you can't debate in a sensible way but always feel the need to flamebait and use personal insults, it's rather clear WHO is being disingenuous.
You gave no counterarguments whatsoever - unless saying "we've been installing it en masse" is meant to be a compelling argument - but just assert (from authority?) that you are right and I am wrong. You're a typical example of a person with ideologically coloured glasses of which I spoke: nothing sensible comes out, except being derisive of all arguments against it, coupled with some personal attacks or insults. Way to go.
I primarily blame the education-system, though. No where in the world are there countries that oblige schools to teach and train critical and rational thought. "Historical criticism" is the closest thing I ever saw, and it was in a university. They should expand and make similar courses compulsory, starting from the lower grades. It would make people more than gullible sheep, willing to believe any politician or nonsensical emotionally driven claim.
There is a great shortage of ratio and logic being promoted in ourr societies, and that's a real shame.
No, they do not, if you mean the average windmill being able to provide there vaunted maximum energy-output. Look it up: with most it's 30%.
If you mean total demand can 'mostly' be provided, than that's only true if you take the averages. And also: being stochastic means you'll never be sure of that. Even if you can say there is a 90% chance it will always be enough, you can't go to a factory or company and say: "sorry, today no electricity, it's one of those 10% days."
And a smart grid has inherent economic problems, as I've already explained in my original post.
That's exactly what I already commented on: you're using the 'smart grid' argument. I already pointed the drawbacks of it. In short, it's economically unsustainable IF you want to make sure one part of your country/continent always gets enough electricity from the other side of your country/continent, if the need appears.
Also, the only really solution to it (using windturbines as a stable energy source) is in your last part: energy storage. However, as I said in my original post, you would need systems that could store vast quantities and that for weeks (to abridge) for it to be reliable enough to become virtually 'non-stochastic'. That's far, far future music - if ever.
Temper, temper. Not agreeing with someone is no reason to loose your manners.
Your counterargument that storage is improving is lacking, seen the fact that I clearly said it would need to store massive amounts of electricity, and that for at least three weeks. The best today is something that deals with 1/100th of that power, being able to bridge a mere 2 hours. *As said* thus, it's only a possibility in a far away future, and even when made, it still would need to prove it could be made economically viable (batteries are prohibitively expensive). So my reasons weren't 'shit' at all, as one might have understood, if one was reading my post comprehensively. And you didn't actually give any counter-arguments to any of the rest I pointed out.
Every economy in the world is slowing down now, because the economy is lowing down. It would be foolhardy to think this will remain so. Sooner or later, the driving motor (currently primarily China) of the world economy will start again. India will be next. When you look at it as a total picture - ignoring temporary economic dips thus - you will see that in our human history, the energy requirements of society have ALWAYS gone up, viewed as a whole. While 'unending' growth is not possible while remaining on Earth, it's far from finished for the time being. Moreover, if we're out of room for expansion, it becomes even more necessary to go for compact, high-yield energy sources - which windmills are not. And lastly, efficiency is all good and well, and one certainly has to aspire for the greatest efficiency in any device... but it can only bring you that far. There is no way even the most efficient electrical device will be able to work *without* electricity, after all. So, in the long run, even with high efficiency, you'll need more energy, as long as people are using immer more electrical devices. And they do. I know it's a recurrent thought of the greens that people will go 'back to nature' as some sort of idealistic environment, but that is untrue, and is nowhere substantiated by the facts around us. People do not cut back on electric and other appliances, they *augment* their use of it. Look at yourself. You're using a personal computer, and probably a smartphone too: things that didn't even exist, 30 years ago.
The reason greens fail to note this, is because, again, of ideological reasons. They fail to realise their ideal is NOT being pursued by the vast majority of people (most of the greens themselves don't actually follow as low a footprint as they could, in fact). That's because, in the end, people want comfort. The more comfort they can get, the more comfort they will seek out. That comfort uses energy. It's that simple.
So my prediction is, efficiency will be strived for, but won't hold back the requirement for more energy. And people will cheer on further efficiency, but not to the point it gets more uncomfortable for themselves. Now, one may deplore this or not, but the point is: all people, inherently, strive for an as big as possible comfort to live and work in. You can't say to an Chinese he can't have a fridge or a car or a PC or the fanciest new thingy on the market, after all, while having it yourself. EVERYONE (weirdos excluded) wants the best and the most comfort for themselves and their family. that's a human thing.
Thus, instead of thinking everyone will suddenly drop back in their use of devices and give up comfort, I think it makes more sense to look at ways where you can get that comfort (and thus energy-requirements). And, indeed, you can't do that would low-yield energy producing devices. But you could do it, at least for the next 10000 years, with LFTR kind of thorium nuclear plants. And, btw, massive adoption of it would starkly reduce the CO2 output in the climate too, AND get rid of the nuclear waste of old nuclear plants. As said...one would expect the greens to be *a bit* more forthcoming, thus...
I'm always amazed that wind and solar get all that starry-eyed looking fans every time it pops up in the news. It never seems to dawn on those people that wind and solar are *inherently stochastic*, and thus, can NEVER replace more stable forms of energy-delivery. Some little know facts: when the power of a windturbine is mentioned, it does NOT mean that it actually delivers that power. For instance, if it says "This is a 8MW windmill that can support 100000 households...that is simply a lie, in a de facto way. The vast majority only deliver ONE THIRD of their pretended maximum power (a lot even less). Thus, you need *3 times* as many just to provide the same power of an actual coal/gas/nuclear plant of 8 MW. It would be reasonable to compare the costs with the ACTUAL power being delivered, thus... but you *never* see that happen on any pro-green website or fancamp.
Apart from that, stochastic systems are inherently bad for giving you a stable energy source. That's why - another little detail most of the pro-camp seem to forget - is that for every windmill park, there NEEDS to be a classical plant (on gas, oil or coal) to provide backup, for all those times the demand and what's been asked for is not in accordance with eachother. (aka, to level out the peaks and valleys of energy-demand and delivery). THIS in turn means, such plants need to be always on (since wind and solar are inherently stochastic) with all the consequences of CO2 pollution, since those plants pollute. Even worse: they pollute *more* than they usually do, because they're running inefficiently most of the time: they always have to keep 'running', because they need to be able to shift gears and provide energy on short notice, but at times when the wind is giving enough, they're just running idle, which gives very bad combustion/burning up, and thus their CO2 emissions are far worse than when they're burning at full power. That's also why research has demonstrated the actual gains of reducing CO2 thanks to windmills is *far* less than what is claimed, if one looks at reality, instead of theoretical computations that act as if these backups aren't there. And they never seem to be there in any calculation of claim I've seen on a green site.
Now, it's not that I have inherently something against 'green solutions', but only if they're viable and make economical sense, and DO give us stable energy which is needed for a modern society. You can't well say to companies in your country: "ah, sorry, wind is a bit down today, so no electricity". And yes, I know the theory the greens always come up with, aka the super-smart all-encompassing grid, where every windmill is connected to everything else, and electricity flows from one end of the continent to the other. But frankly, that's just a pipedream. And it also makes no economic sense, since it would mean that, if, say, a major part of Europe needed energy but the wind wasn't blowing strong enough, it would need to get the electricity from the other half of the EU where is *was* blowing. However, that would mean you'd need DOUBLE as much windmills, since you always need to be able to safeguard energy delivery for the other part of the EU, then. But most of the time, that would mean you have a HUGE surplus (when the wind is blowing hard enough in about the whole of the EU). So that means half of your windmill park would have to stand by idle (or at least, electricity would have to be sold very, very cheap) most of the time. That's economic suicide.
All those things, you never see mentioned anywhere in the pro-camp, and that's what I find the most annoying. It's not a realistic picture one portrays, but an ideologically coloured one, where reality has to step aside for dogmatic reasoning. I find it highly annoying. How can one make an informed decision, if one actually hides, ignores or outright lies about all these aspects?
The truth is, if one REALLY wants to get a stable alternative, one is better off with geothermal and water(dam) and maybe tidal-wave derived energy sources. At least t
As many have pointed out; it's 12.523,- EUR, not 12,523 EUR.
But that aside, it remains correct to doubt whether such a person should be considered 'the most wanted' on a list of Europol. By any standard, he shouldn't be on there, if one looks at it objectively. Alas, no doubt there was some political pressure or a behind-the-doors-deal or whatever, so he got on there - while persons or companies making a million+ fraud don't, apparently.
It's a pity, because it undermines the very essence of a 'most wanted' list, namely a warning and look-out for the most dangerous and vile criminals. Nothing with mere fraud should be on there. Not because fraud isn't criminal, but, compared to things that ACTUALLY are life-threatening - say, terrorists killing dozens of civilians - you want to set your priorities right. After all, stealing some bread is also a criminal act: is one going to put that to on the 'most wanted' list? It's diluting the purpose for what it is meant.
Yes, I know what you're argumenting. But, on itself, that has little to do with wasting money on overhead and mismanagement. The problem with what you say is, that, even when taken at face value, it's indeterminable *in any case*. So, while it might be true, it has no argumentative value (in determining the best course of action).
Let me make this clear: you basically say, well, the 8 billion might be worth it, since you never know what you will get out off it. Very well, but for 2 billion you could have made a set of smaller mirrors and used interferometry, and you ALSO could not predict what you would get out of it. Seen the potential, one might even assume *more* (foreseen) science would come out of it, as for the unforeseen...well, since it can't be determined in front, anything is as good as the next.
So, even in that case, it *still* makes more sense to go for what you may reasonably assume will give you the most 'foreseen' science, and as for the unforeseen benefits: well, everything has as much chance, since you can't predict it.
This is still the most reasonable thing to do, thus, otherwise one could spend the whole budget of NASA into something like the EMdrive, and simply hope for the one-in-a-trillion chance that something useful will come of it. I...think we can do better and spend it a bit more rationally...
Thus, even when one would take what you say at face value, it's still no way to conduct science (or at least, spend a budget on it) in the best way. Scientific projects are primarily done for the predicted and foreseen scientific benefits it will bring - this is the case even for non-commercial, academic science - and all the rest is a bonus. A bonus you can never be sure of anyhow, so it's not like wasting more money on a certain project will give you any more certainty of getting anything worthwhile in the far future we can not predict today.
So saying one can not fathom what that telescope might bring, might be true, but you also can't fathom what 1)a set of telescopes with interferometry + 2)an overwhelmingly large telescope on earth, + 3) two to three other projects could have brought, for the same money. It's still no reason to put up with overruns and just keep pouring money into it, in the off-chance it could maybe be beneficial in the future in ways we don't know. It might. so might everything else one could have done with the same amount of money. So it isn't an argument on itself in defence of spending so much money.
However, it's reasonable to ask oneself what the best bang for the bucks is. While the purpose might not be making a profit, budgets are never infinite, thus one can not deny cost IS important. The bang, in this case, is indeed not profit, but it is scientific return. But the same principle remains: couldn't one have gotten more scientific value out of the 8,8 billion that one poured into it? Since a lot is due to mismanagement, one can reasonably argue a lot of the budget was wasted. And whether that is a 'primary' concern or not, it still is a concern, exactly because the budget IS limited. A dime can not be spend two times, and what goes one way, isn't available for something else.
That said, my argument is not 'we spend so much on it, so we must finish it', but rather "we spend so much on it, it's now nearly finished, and the money one would save by stopping it today would be peanuts, and wouldn't compensate the loss of scientific value of scrapping it now."
I think this is the most logical rationale. It's all good and well to say science drives revolutionary technologies, but that doesn't mean one still can't spend it better, on more science, even in the domain of science where 'one can't see any application'. On the other hand, at some point, the cost/benefit has a turning point. I would say it exceeds it when only half the project is done and yet one is already half over ones' budget. At the other hand, when 90% is finished, and no great cost-overruns will occur anymore, *at that point* it makes sense to finish it, because, then, *that* is where one gets the most (scientific) bang for the bucks, since the sunken cost of it has already happened, and thus the total amount of money wasted is already there, it means one has to look at the possible savings in regard to the science one will get from it being allowed, or it being scrapped and something else started with the money saved.
This is a purely pragmatic stance. Each project, like that for the F-35, would need to be judged on those merits. But the real problem is letting it go on far too long with cost-overruns, not letting it go on when it's almost finished when the cost-overruns already happened.
And look, I'm all for science. But if they had stopped it when the estimate went from 1 billion to 1,8 billion in one year time, we'd saved 7,8 billion dollar. With that money, you could make far cheaper (2 or 3) space-telescope(s) of 2 meter diameter, and use interferometry to achieve the same (and actually a lot more) science than one can with the JWST, and still have enough left for other science too.
So I think you're in error, here. The 'profit' here is science, but the value-for-money principle still holds up. And it always will, unless you have unlimited budgets - which isn't the case of NASA.
No, they measured it with a fancy new laser-device, and based themselves on that to sharpen the mirror. And not on the two measurements of the old focus-determining device, which showed a discrepancy with it.
Alas, turned out tit was their fancy new toy that was calibrated wrongly, and not the other ones they always used. And THAT was why it went wrong.
I'm not sure if you understood my post. It's meant to be a taken as indicating it has cost TOO much, and the money would well have been spend much better. If you're not agreeing to that, give arguments, not just some non-sequitur snapshot remarks and links that have nothing to do with the issue.
If, however, you are specifically taking out one element of my post, namely that I argue that one should have pulled the plug out long ago, and that now it's not a good idea anymore - feel free to argument why this would be untrue in this *de facto* specific example. Do note, that, while in the begin-years the costs overruns were gigantic (the time where one SHOULD have pulled the plug), this is not the case for these last few years anymore. Moreover, by now it's largely build. *Whatever* you would spare and recuperate money from it starting today - if you should shut it down now - the total amount 'saved' that way would NOT get you as much scientific worth as what the JWT would give. It's a fully rational reasoning if you take a pragmatic stance, and not some idealistic purist one. One should have done it in the year 2000, then, when there was an 80% increase of the cost in one year time. Now that it's already build for more than 90%, even if further overruns would occur, they won't be drastic - which is shown in the cost-estimates of the last few years, btw. for the few hundred millions you would save that way, you couldn't make another telescope - even when cheaper build - of the same capabilities with that money.
The main point however, was that there should be more control on cost-overruns of such projects, and pull the plug much more early. I don't see how anyone would NOT agree to that. Then one wouldn't encounter things like this, where one would argue to scrap an almost finished product and thus basically waste all what was put in already. Doing such a thing makes only sense if the benefits outweighs the cost *at that time* (aka, when you are debating to scrap it or not)...
I'm not sure if you understood my post. It's meant to be a taken as indicating it has cost TOO much, and the money would well have been spend much better. If you're not agreeing to that, give arguments, not just some non-sequitur snapshot remarks and links that have nothing to do with the issue.
If, however, you are specifically taking out one element of my post, namely that I argue that one should have pulled the plug out long ago, and that now it's not a good idea anymore - feel free to argument why this would be untrue in this *de facto* specific example. Do note, that, while in the begin-years the costs overruns were gigantic (the time where one SHOULD have pulled the plug), this is not the case for these last few years anymore. Moreover, by now it's largely build. *Whatever* you would spare and recuperate money from it starting today - if you should shut it down now - the total amount 'saved' that way would NOT get you as much scientific worth as what the JWT would give. It's a fully rational reasoning if you take a pragmatic stance, and not some idealistic purist one. One should have done it in the year 2000, then, when there was an 80% increase of the cost in one year time. Now that it's already build for more than 90%, even if further overruns would occur, they won't be drastic - which is shown in the cost-estimates of the last few years, btw. for the few hundred millions you would save that way, you couldn't make another telescope - even when cheaper build - of the same capabilities with that money.
The main point however, was that there should be more control on cost-overruns of such projects, and pull the plug much more early. I don't see how anyone would NOT agree to that. Then one wouldn't encounter things like this, where one would argue to scrap an almost finished product and thus basically waste all what was put in already. Doing such a thing makes only sense if the benefits outweighs the cost *at that time* (aka, when you are debating to scrap it or not).
For all it's worth - and I'm sure it will be a great telescope - one can not also look at the downside of it. It has been exorbitantly expensive. Originally estimated at 1 billion, and 5 years development, it will now clock at 8,8 billion (more than 8 TIMES as much, thus!) and 11 years later...
For sure, I do not agree with those who say to just scrap it, since it gobbles up all the money that other space-science projects could use - at least at this point. It has come this far, and we'd poured so much money in it already, and it's now actually close to be finished, it would be foolhardy to shut it down now. We needed to do that years and billions of dollars ago. Now it's too late, and it would mean wasting all that money and time for nothing.
No, then we'd better get everything out of it that we can, costly as it may have been. No use stopping and returning if you're finally at the finishing line.
That said, one has to acknowledge it has been mismanaged to an awful degree, and cost-overruns were rampant, and no sensible control was exercised on it (or at least, they didn't had the balls to pull out the plug when it became apparent it would cost 50% more than expected, in which case, imho, ALL projects should be cut. Because if you're already at 50% overrun and you still have next to nothing built, it's bound to 'overrun' much, much more. But apart from it being far too costly, there is also the problem it took so much time as to have been outdated by now.
Technology didn't stand still. These days, one could achieve the same lightgathering power with creating three much cheaper and easier to build 2-meter mirrors as space-telescopes and use optical interferometry. And it would have a ten time BETTER resolution, or even more, depending how much the mirrors are apart while remaining stable and data-connected with a laser. And that for about a quarter as the price of the JWT.
In fact, for 8,8 billion, you could make something that would be 5 times bigger than the overwhelmingly large telescope ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ) of the EU (which has been cancelled due to it being considered too costly), on Earth. That would given you a FAR more powerful Telescope than what you have now, with only very minor drawbacks in comparison to the JWT.
All in all, thus, it has been a bad decision to keep the project alive with all the time and money-overruns. But now that it's finally finished...well, I hope it turns out to be a worthwhile machine, and a telescope that will brings uw many amazing things. There is no sense in crying over spilled milk, after all.
Slashdot Mirror
Yes, and contrary to you, I *did* do the trouble of reading them. Only, they pertain no confirmation of your claim that it's not stochastic, nor does it substantiate your assertion that no backup is needed anymore from classical plants.
And don't complain about my post being insulting if you start being insulting in the first place, even though you then say 'maybe I worded it wrongly'. I'm a fervent proponent of free speech, but also of reciprocity, so don't start complaining you get the same treatment as you give others. "I stop here with debunking your bullshit." is where you started with language which you already should have known it was not going to be conductive of having an amicable discussion. Oh, don't tell me: in your opinion, it was merely stating an obvious fact, no doubt. Well, in reciprocity, I'm only saying an equally obvious fact. And thus:
In all honesty, you're an arrogant twit, and I think you know it. Or maybe not, with your bloated ego, but at least others know it too, seen your response(s) and the reactions you get from others in other threads. The one that is uneducated is you, AND you refuse to learn and don't even try to read anything that contradicts your set views, all in the absolute certainty that you know it best, and all the rest not, that you are an expert determining what is stochastic or not, because you claim to program and are a sailor (while questioning 'why should I be an expert in stochastic systems' when the fallacy of speaking from authority is *exactly* the fact that people that are NOT experts on the subjects act as if they do).
In short, you STILL did not provide any link that substantiates your claim about the weather not being stochastic, NOR that windmills don't need any back up anymore. Not surprising, because those assertions are untrue. I provided you the links to substantiate MY claims on the matter (one of which was to a scientific paper), but then you complain it's 'old data', while YOU didn't even give ANY data, nor provide links to papers that would indicate why the old data would be wrong. How very consistent...
You simply fail to grasp the basics of any rational debate, namely that your claims and arguments need to be substantiated, or they're basically worthless and don't amount to anything (the same is true for assertions based on your own expertise without giving proof of that expertise).
No, the parent poster is right. He's basically a troll. He ALWAYS asserts claims and conclusions with the utmost certainty, denying all other arguments, refusing to read anything that would contradict his own thoughts on the matter, yet never manages to give even the most basic reference or link to anything that would substantiate his own claims.
Indeed, he's basically a troll. He ALWAYS asserts claims and conclusions with the utmost certainty, denying all other arguments, refusing to read anything that would contradict his own thoughts on the matter, yet never manages to give even the most basic reference or link to anything that would substantiate his own claims.
That was pretty funny, though it probably went over the heads of many. +1 funny!
I note you still did not provided a single link or reference to substantiate any of your claims. Be it recent or 'old' data. Ergo, your assertions and claims are derived from self-asserted authority (or not even that, apparently), without anything to back it up... and are thus pretty worthless in any rational debate.
You forget to mention that, apart from your last two, that didn't were relevant to the topic at hand, you posted NO links at all , let alone 'more recent' ones, that would contradict what is said in those other links.
One of the links was to a scientific paper, btw, clearly indicating the weather is a stochastic phenomenon. Your only response to it is "can't be bothered to read it, since I know it better then every one else". Or "aw, it's 10 years old, it's SO passé". Really? That's your counterargument? You do realise it's not based on refuting anything content-wise that is said in there, nor on arguments, only on your own assertion "it's not true, because I say so". Alas, not to burst your ego-bubble, but that's not a valid argument. If you realise this, then please provide your own links to recent scientific papers which claim it's NOT stochastic, as you keep claiming erroneously. You can't. You know it, and I know it. Give me your links to recent sites where it's said windturbines don't need any backup anymore these days from gas/oil/coal plants anymore. You can't. We both know it. And that's why, basically, you are just trolling, and baiting with all the 'maybe you should grasp the content'. I grasp it very well, and I also grasp you didn't and can not offer ANY proof of what you claim. And that's because you're full of bull.
If anything should be tiring, it's reactions like yours, who are clearly trollish in nature. If you didn't want to debate things based on facts and valid arguments, but just wanted to be an annoying idiot, you should have said so from the start. And if you do, then please substantiate your claims, preferably with more recent links, since you complain about older data.
I'll ask you again: put up or shut up. Show me a paper that explicitly claims the weather is NOT stochastic. Show me a reliable site where it's demonstrated windturbines do NOT need any backup anymore to compensate for load balancing.
"No I did not. As I likely know more about the stuff as you can find links." ---> appeal to authority. Are you a scientist with expertise on stochastic systems? Highly doubtful. And certainly with a self-referencing which can not be checked, it's completely worthless as an argument.
But, ok, I'm broad-minded; if you can actually prove you're such an expert on the domain in question, I'll count it as an argument with some worth. Please provide actual proof that you're such an expert as you self-profess to be. For instance, give a link to your professional career which can be crossed checked that you are in fact, that person.
If you do not want to, please realise, that then, the argument is completely worthless, just as anything said out of 'authority' or any other claims that you did not substantiate. You complain about my sources and claim I'm wrong, because you said so. You can turn it as you want, but that is what your posts boil down to. You provided nothing to back your claims up, nor did you deliver any proof of your expertise. So, what is left? Be honest.
Nothing, indeed.
"Did you even READ the links I gave you?
No I did not."
"what is written in it, does not interest me"
I think that sums things up quite nicely, indeed. Basically, you don't want to educate yourself - throwing in an appeal to authority at that (always a weak sign), nor are you interested in any arguments that don't stroke with your biased vision.
I, for one, hail our Russian Mooning Overlords!
I'm sorry, but that's just BS.
Did you even READ the links I gave you?
And the weather CAN NOT be predicted precisely. There is no forecasts that can accurately predict with 100% certainty where and how much and at what time the wind will blow. It's absurd to even suggest otherwise, and hints that you really do not understand what you're talking about. In fact, it demonstrate you didn't even do the trouble of reading the links I gave, which substantiate what I say.
If you want to keep claiming the opposite, please provide me with a link where it is substantiated that one can do such a thing. You can't, period. And that's because it's impossible, BECAUSE it's stochastic in nature. Whether forecasts are ALWAYS approximations; they are the best (in a statistical way) predictions computer-simulations can offer. It's a reliance on statistics, thus (and now look again on the definition of stochastic). Here you have another link: http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/r...
Please educate yourself. It's embarrassing to look at arguments that miss even the most basic of knowledge on the subject.
Also... about the gas/coal backups for windmill-parks: this was not a suggestion or prediction, it is simply a fact: there ARE gas/coal backups for all those windmills, just *because* they are stochastic and unpredictable. Again: did you even bother to read the pages I linked to? It's explicitly mentioned there. Whether you like it or want it or not, it IS done that way. Here, I'll give you another link: http://www.aweo.org/windbackup... . What, exactly, do you not understand about it? Or are you being wilfully obtuse?
"That is a matter of math, or not? Either you fix the wrong name plate, or you fix the place where you place them. I mean: if a wind turbine is rated to yield 8MW power at a wind speed of 30feet/sec but you put it on a place where that speed is rarely reached or exceeded, it can't be the wind mills fault."
Apparently, it happens often enough. One can put the blame on everyone else, the fact remains that the actual energy most windmills deliver are de facto a lot less than promised. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new...
note that the situation won't improve, since the first windmill-parks are obviously going to be build in the best wind-covered places. Additional ones will get *less* good spots, since the best ones are already taken. So, it's not that they can't technically possibly get to their vaunted maximum, it's that they just don't, in practise. This relates to the stochastic nature of wind.
Changing the 'nameplate' to a more realistic output would indeed solve that part...well: why, then, do green sites/blogs/groups never do that? Note that this would also mean that, when they compare 100 windmills of 8MW to a nuclear plant of 800 MW, they're actually NOT using an adequate comparison, since they would need, in fact, *300* windmills for that, thus, with triple the price - and still being stochastic in nature. It's math, yes. So why does the pro-camp not apply it correctly?
"The costs are calculated quite different than you think. A guy pacing a wind farm somewhere surely knows how much energy he can expect over the year and if an investment makes sense."
Wrong. You may not be aware of this, but wind-energy is *heavily* subsidies by the state, in most countries. This, in turn, means the actually efficiency DOES NOT (or at least, far less) matter, since they don't earn directly from the cost/benefit that it delivers, but by being subsidized. As long as you can make profit with the subsidies, it doesn't really matter *how* efficient it is. The taxpayers pays for it anyway. And that's also the reason why, in countries that stop with all those huge subsidies, a lot of those wind-mill companies close doors and can't survive. In short, the whole wind-energy industrial complex is a heavily subsidised one, which only survives thanks to those subsidies (aka, money that was first derived FROM the economy, thus).
"That is wrong. If that was the case you would need for every classical plant a classical back up plant, too."
?
What ARE you talking about? A gas-powered plant does not need a backup, because it's not stochastic in nature. It has a constant, well-defined amount of energy (gas) that it can use. It can do load-balancing. Thus, it can level out the peaks and valleys of demand and supply (of energy) on short notice.
The fact you say is wrong, simply indicates you are totally unaware of the facts. They do. It's not surprising you don't know, because many like you just don't research things, but repeat what others (greens) say (and of course, they'll always ommit things that speak unfavourable of it). Here, let me give you a link: http://www.forbes.com/sites/je...
Please read up before claiming something is wrong out of hand.
"Obviously, because of the continent wide grids, wind plants can back up each other just as classical plants back up each other."
No, they can't. Because every windfarm is stochastic in nature, not just your own. This means you're basically playing statistical roulette, and *hope* it will *ALWAYS* be enough. And: WHAT 'continent wide grid'? Do you have any idea what trillions that would cost?
"I stop here with debunking your bullshit."
No, please continue, since we were just coming to the good part. As you can see - I've provided links this time - it's YOU who are
If I had mod-points left, I would give some to this post. ;-) Do you mind I I take parts of it in any following post(s) in regard to the same matter? (You can do the same with anything worthwhile you might see in mine, of course). It's just that, I think the few remaining rational voices in here should do more to make the obvious flaws apparent to all. Even if a lot don't get it because of their ideologically coloured glasses, it might reach *some* people whom didn't fall in the nonsense of it completely, yet.
You know, all this is strange. It's not that I'm against alternatives *per sé*, it's just that, merely looking at it from a rational standpoint, one simply can not note the vast and inherent difficulties of trying to provide a stable energy production with systems that are stochastic by nature. I've pointed all the major criticism out there, with clear argument,s and yet, it STILL doesn't get through. It all gets rejected out of hand, and, as you say, the main and principle reason for it, is because I'm NOT going with the political-and-ecological-correct story, and even 'dare' to suggest nuclear is a more viable option. Suddenly I'm a shill, or some undercover agent of the nuclear lobby, or whatever. Ermm...no... I'm just pointing out the inherent flaws of the one system compared to the other. IF one wants to go 'alternative', one would be better of with geothermal and other less-stochastic systems. The problem there is that not every country or place can do it (and certainly not economically) - and no, a smart grid spanning the globe will not help there neither, since the same problem with it remains.
But, instead of discussing it, it' just: modding it down, claiming I'm a shill, or other non sequitur arguments. Or, like the other poster, saying: "You're actively doing damage with that shit, so fuck you and the horse that rode in on you." Well, it's either true or not, if it's not, one give counterarguments, and if it is, then, if it 'does damage', than the problem lays with the unrealistic claims being made in the first place. It's ironic, but it's actually the reverse: it's this over-optimistic, PC-correct 'green policy' story of windmills and solarpanels where were basically wasting our money on (if the goal is stable energy deliverance) that is actually damaging. Not only to the acceptance and implementation of other systems, but to modern society as a whole, in the long run. I just don't understand people who'd rather believe in a pipedream than looking at the facts, and then complain their dream is being damaged by it.
Contrary to their anti-nuclear dogmatic reaction, I have nothing against green alternatives on themselves... but you MUST look at it objectively and see what it actually delivers. There is no way anyone with a rational mind looking at this objectively, that will not note such low-energy-yielding stochastic systems can never be a good idea for delivering stable energy.
I'm actually giving several arguments, none of which you refuted. That it's your opinion it is FUD is all good and well, but that remains your opinion (which clearly was not substantiated by any arguments), and if you can't debate in a sensible way but always feel the need to flamebait and use personal insults, it's rather clear WHO is being disingenuous.
You gave no counterarguments whatsoever - unless saying "we've been installing it en masse" is meant to be a compelling argument - but just assert (from authority?) that you are right and I am wrong. You're a typical example of a person with ideologically coloured glasses of which I spoke: nothing sensible comes out, except being derisive of all arguments against it, coupled with some personal attacks or insults. Way to go.
I primarily blame the education-system, though. No where in the world are there countries that oblige schools to teach and train critical and rational thought. "Historical criticism" is the closest thing I ever saw, and it was in a university. They should expand and make similar courses compulsory, starting from the lower grades. It would make people more than gullible sheep, willing to believe any politician or nonsensical emotionally driven claim.
There is a great shortage of ratio and logic being promoted in ourr societies, and that's a real shame.
No, they do not, if you mean the average windmill being able to provide there vaunted maximum energy-output. Look it up: with most it's 30%.
If you mean total demand can 'mostly' be provided, than that's only true if you take the averages. And also: being stochastic means you'll never be sure of that. Even if you can say there is a 90% chance it will always be enough, you can't go to a factory or company and say: "sorry, today no electricity, it's one of those 10% days."
And a smart grid has inherent economic problems, as I've already explained in my original post.
That's exactly what I already commented on: you're using the 'smart grid' argument. I already pointed the drawbacks of it. In short, it's economically unsustainable IF you want to make sure one part of your country/continent always gets enough electricity from the other side of your country/continent, if the need appears.
Also, the only really solution to it (using windturbines as a stable energy source) is in your last part: energy storage. However, as I said in my original post, you would need systems that could store vast quantities and that for weeks (to abridge) for it to be reliable enough to become virtually 'non-stochastic'. That's far, far future music - if ever.
Temper, temper. Not agreeing with someone is no reason to loose your manners.
Your counterargument that storage is improving is lacking, seen the fact that I clearly said it would need to store massive amounts of electricity, and that for at least three weeks. The best today is something that deals with 1/100th of that power, being able to bridge a mere 2 hours. *As said* thus, it's only a possibility in a far away future, and even when made, it still would need to prove it could be made economically viable (batteries are prohibitively expensive). So my reasons weren't 'shit' at all, as one might have understood, if one was reading my post comprehensively. And you didn't actually give any counter-arguments to any of the rest I pointed out.
Every economy in the world is slowing down now, because the economy is lowing down. It would be foolhardy to think this will remain so. Sooner or later, the driving motor (currently primarily China) of the world economy will start again. India will be next. When you look at it as a total picture - ignoring temporary economic dips thus - you will see that in our human history, the energy requirements of society have ALWAYS gone up, viewed as a whole. While 'unending' growth is not possible while remaining on Earth, it's far from finished for the time being. Moreover, if we're out of room for expansion, it becomes even more necessary to go for compact, high-yield energy sources - which windmills are not. And lastly, efficiency is all good and well, and one certainly has to aspire for the greatest efficiency in any device... but it can only bring you that far. There is no way even the most efficient electrical device will be able to work *without* electricity, after all. So, in the long run, even with high efficiency, you'll need more energy, as long as people are using immer more electrical devices. And they do. I know it's a recurrent thought of the greens that people will go 'back to nature' as some sort of idealistic environment, but that is untrue, and is nowhere substantiated by the facts around us. People do not cut back on electric and other appliances, they *augment* their use of it. Look at yourself. You're using a personal computer, and probably a smartphone too: things that didn't even exist, 30 years ago.
The reason greens fail to note this, is because, again, of ideological reasons. They fail to realise their ideal is NOT being pursued by the vast majority of people (most of the greens themselves don't actually follow as low a footprint as they could, in fact). That's because, in the end, people want comfort. The more comfort they can get, the more comfort they will seek out. That comfort uses energy. It's that simple.
So my prediction is, efficiency will be strived for, but won't hold back the requirement for more energy. And people will cheer on further efficiency, but not to the point it gets more uncomfortable for themselves. Now, one may deplore this or not, but the point is: all people, inherently, strive for an as big as possible comfort to live and work in. You can't say to an Chinese he can't have a fridge or a car or a PC or the fanciest new thingy on the market, after all, while having it yourself. EVERYONE (weirdos excluded) wants the best and the most comfort for themselves and their family. that's a human thing.
Thus, instead of thinking everyone will suddenly drop back in their use of devices and give up comfort, I think it makes more sense to look at ways where you can get that comfort (and thus energy-requirements). And, indeed, you can't do that would low-yield energy producing devices. But you could do it, at least for the next 10000 years, with LFTR kind of thorium nuclear plants. And, btw, massive adoption of it would starkly reduce the CO2 output in the climate too, AND get rid of the nuclear waste of old nuclear plants. As said...one would expect the greens to be *a bit* more forthcoming, thus...
I'm always amazed that wind and solar get all that starry-eyed looking fans every time it pops up in the news. It never seems to dawn on those people that wind and solar are *inherently stochastic*, and thus, can NEVER replace more stable forms of energy-delivery. Some little know facts: when the power of a windturbine is mentioned, it does NOT mean that it actually delivers that power. For instance, if it says "This is a 8MW windmill that can support 100000 households...that is simply a lie, in a de facto way. The vast majority only deliver ONE THIRD of their pretended maximum power (a lot even less). Thus, you need *3 times* as many just to provide the same power of an actual coal/gas/nuclear plant of 8 MW. It would be reasonable to compare the costs with the ACTUAL power being delivered, thus... but you *never* see that happen on any pro-green website or fancamp.
Apart from that, stochastic systems are inherently bad for giving you a stable energy source. That's why - another little detail most of the pro-camp seem to forget - is that for every windmill park, there NEEDS to be a classical plant (on gas, oil or coal) to provide backup, for all those times the demand and what's been asked for is not in accordance with eachother. (aka, to level out the peaks and valleys of energy-demand and delivery). THIS in turn means, such plants need to be always on (since wind and solar are inherently stochastic) with all the consequences of CO2 pollution, since those plants pollute. Even worse: they pollute *more* than they usually do, because they're running inefficiently most of the time: they always have to keep 'running', because they need to be able to shift gears and provide energy on short notice, but at times when the wind is giving enough, they're just running idle, which gives very bad combustion/burning up, and thus their CO2 emissions are far worse than when they're burning at full power. That's also why research has demonstrated the actual gains of reducing CO2 thanks to windmills is *far* less than what is claimed, if one looks at reality, instead of theoretical computations that act as if these backups aren't there. And they never seem to be there in any calculation of claim I've seen on a green site.
Now, it's not that I have inherently something against 'green solutions', but only if they're viable and make economical sense, and DO give us stable energy which is needed for a modern society. You can't well say to companies in your country: "ah, sorry, wind is a bit down today, so no electricity". And yes, I know the theory the greens always come up with, aka the super-smart all-encompassing grid, where every windmill is connected to everything else, and electricity flows from one end of the continent to the other. But frankly, that's just a pipedream. And it also makes no economic sense, since it would mean that, if, say, a major part of Europe needed energy but the wind wasn't blowing strong enough, it would need to get the electricity from the other half of the EU where is *was* blowing. However, that would mean you'd need DOUBLE as much windmills, since you always need to be able to safeguard energy delivery for the other part of the EU, then. But most of the time, that would mean you have a HUGE surplus (when the wind is blowing hard enough in about the whole of the EU). So that means half of your windmill park would have to stand by idle (or at least, electricity would have to be sold very, very cheap) most of the time. That's economic suicide.
All those things, you never see mentioned anywhere in the pro-camp, and that's what I find the most annoying. It's not a realistic picture one portrays, but an ideologically coloured one, where reality has to step aside for dogmatic reasoning. I find it highly annoying. How can one make an informed decision, if one actually hides, ignores or outright lies about all these aspects?
The truth is, if one REALLY wants to get a stable alternative, one is better off with geothermal and water(dam) and maybe tidal-wave derived energy sources. At least t
As many have pointed out; it's 12.523,- EUR, not 12,523 EUR.
But that aside, it remains correct to doubt whether such a person should be considered 'the most wanted' on a list of Europol. By any standard, he shouldn't be on there, if one looks at it objectively. Alas, no doubt there was some political pressure or a behind-the-doors-deal or whatever, so he got on there - while persons or companies making a million+ fraud don't, apparently.
It's a pity, because it undermines the very essence of a 'most wanted' list, namely a warning and look-out for the most dangerous and vile criminals. Nothing with mere fraud should be on there. Not because fraud isn't criminal, but, compared to things that ACTUALLY are life-threatening - say, terrorists killing dozens of civilians - you want to set your priorities right. After all, stealing some bread is also a criminal act: is one going to put that to on the 'most wanted' list? It's diluting the purpose for what it is meant.
Yes, I know what you're argumenting. But, on itself, that has little to do with wasting money on overhead and mismanagement. The problem with what you say is, that, even when taken at face value, it's indeterminable *in any case*. So, while it might be true, it has no argumentative value (in determining the best course of action).
Let me make this clear: you basically say, well, the 8 billion might be worth it, since you never know what you will get out off it. Very well, but for 2 billion you could have made a set of smaller mirrors and used interferometry, and you ALSO could not predict what you would get out of it. Seen the potential, one might even assume *more* (foreseen) science would come out of it, as for the unforeseen...well, since it can't be determined in front, anything is as good as the next.
So, even in that case, it *still* makes more sense to go for what you may reasonably assume will give you the most 'foreseen' science, and as for the unforeseen benefits: well, everything has as much chance, since you can't predict it.
This is still the most reasonable thing to do, thus, otherwise one could spend the whole budget of NASA into something like the EMdrive, and simply hope for the one-in-a-trillion chance that something useful will come of it. I...think we can do better and spend it a bit more rationally...
Thus, even when one would take what you say at face value, it's still no way to conduct science (or at least, spend a budget on it) in the best way. Scientific projects are primarily done for the predicted and foreseen scientific benefits it will bring - this is the case even for non-commercial, academic science - and all the rest is a bonus. A bonus you can never be sure of anyhow, so it's not like wasting more money on a certain project will give you any more certainty of getting anything worthwhile in the far future we can not predict today.
So saying one can not fathom what that telescope might bring, might be true, but you also can't fathom what 1)a set of telescopes with interferometry + 2)an overwhelmingly large telescope on earth, + 3) two to three other projects could have brought, for the same money. It's still no reason to put up with overruns and just keep pouring money into it, in the off-chance it could maybe be beneficial in the future in ways we don't know. It might. so might everything else one could have done with the same amount of money. So it isn't an argument on itself in defence of spending so much money.
However, it's reasonable to ask oneself what the best bang for the bucks is. While the purpose might not be making a profit, budgets are never infinite, thus one can not deny cost IS important. The bang, in this case, is indeed not profit, but it is scientific return. But the same principle remains: couldn't one have gotten more scientific value out of the 8,8 billion that one poured into it? Since a lot is due to mismanagement, one can reasonably argue a lot of the budget was wasted. And whether that is a 'primary' concern or not, it still is a concern, exactly because the budget IS limited. A dime can not be spend two times, and what goes one way, isn't available for something else.
That said, my argument is not 'we spend so much on it, so we must finish it', but rather "we spend so much on it, it's now nearly finished, and the money one would save by stopping it today would be peanuts, and wouldn't compensate the loss of scientific value of scrapping it now."
I think this is the most logical rationale. It's all good and well to say science drives revolutionary technologies, but that doesn't mean one still can't spend it better, on more science, even in the domain of science where 'one can't see any application'. On the other hand, at some point, the cost/benefit has a turning point. I would say it exceeds it when only half the project is done and yet one is already half over ones' budget. At the other hand, when 90% is finished, and no great cost-overruns will occur anymore, *at that point* it makes sense to finish it, because, then, *that* is where one gets the most (scientific) bang for the bucks, since the sunken cost of it has already happened, and thus the total amount of money wasted is already there, it means one has to look at the possible savings in regard to the science one will get from it being allowed, or it being scrapped and something else started with the money saved.
This is a purely pragmatic stance. Each project, like that for the F-35, would need to be judged on those merits. But the real problem is letting it go on far too long with cost-overruns, not letting it go on when it's almost finished when the cost-overruns already happened.
And look, I'm all for science. But if they had stopped it when the estimate went from 1 billion to 1,8 billion in one year time, we'd saved 7,8 billion dollar. With that money, you could make far cheaper (2 or 3) space-telescope(s) of 2 meter diameter, and use interferometry to achieve the same (and actually a lot more) science than one can with the JWST, and still have enough left for other science too.
So I think you're in error, here. The 'profit' here is science, but the value-for-money principle still holds up. And it always will, unless you have unlimited budgets - which isn't the case of NASA.
Correct.
It's a well know fact for everyone who has had any curiosity in this regard and bothered to look it up.
Yet, people still say whatever nonsense comes up in their mind and then proclaim it as a fact.
Ah, well, that's slashdot for ya.
No, they measured it with a fancy new laser-device, and based themselves on that to sharpen the mirror. And not on the two measurements of the old focus-determining device, which showed a discrepancy with it.
Alas, turned out tit was their fancy new toy that was calibrated wrongly, and not the other ones they always used. And THAT was why it went wrong.
I'm not sure if you understood my post. It's meant to be a taken as indicating it has cost TOO much, and the money would well have been spend much better. If you're not agreeing to that, give arguments, not just some non-sequitur snapshot remarks and links that have nothing to do with the issue.
If, however, you are specifically taking out one element of my post, namely that I argue that one should have pulled the plug out long ago, and that now it's not a good idea anymore - feel free to argument why this would be untrue in this *de facto* specific example. Do note, that, while in the begin-years the costs overruns were gigantic (the time where one SHOULD have pulled the plug), this is not the case for these last few years anymore. Moreover, by now it's largely build. *Whatever* you would spare and recuperate money from it starting today - if you should shut it down now - the total amount 'saved' that way would NOT get you as much scientific worth as what the JWT would give. It's a fully rational reasoning if you take a pragmatic stance, and not some idealistic purist one. One should have done it in the year 2000, then, when there was an 80% increase of the cost in one year time. Now that it's already build for more than 90%, even if further overruns would occur, they won't be drastic - which is shown in the cost-estimates of the last few years, btw. for the few hundred millions you would save that way, you couldn't make another telescope - even when cheaper build - of the same capabilities with that money.
The main point however, was that there should be more control on cost-overruns of such projects, and pull the plug much more early. I don't see how anyone would NOT agree to that. Then one wouldn't encounter things like this, where one would argue to scrap an almost finished product and thus basically waste all what was put in already. Doing such a thing makes only sense if the benefits outweighs the cost *at that time* (aka, when you are debating to scrap it or not)...
I'm not sure if you understood my post. It's meant to be a taken as indicating it has cost TOO much, and the money would well have been spend much better. If you're not agreeing to that, give arguments, not just some non-sequitur snapshot remarks and links that have nothing to do with the issue.
If, however, you are specifically taking out one element of my post, namely that I argue that one should have pulled the plug out long ago, and that now it's not a good idea anymore - feel free to argument why this would be untrue in this *de facto* specific example. Do note, that, while in the begin-years the costs overruns were gigantic (the time where one SHOULD have pulled the plug), this is not the case for these last few years anymore. Moreover, by now it's largely build. *Whatever* you would spare and recuperate money from it starting today - if you should shut it down now - the total amount 'saved' that way would NOT get you as much scientific worth as what the JWT would give. It's a fully rational reasoning if you take a pragmatic stance, and not some idealistic purist one. One should have done it in the year 2000, then, when there was an 80% increase of the cost in one year time. Now that it's already build for more than 90%, even if further overruns would occur, they won't be drastic - which is shown in the cost-estimates of the last few years, btw. for the few hundred millions you would save that way, you couldn't make another telescope - even when cheaper build - of the same capabilities with that money.
The main point however, was that there should be more control on cost-overruns of such projects, and pull the plug much more early. I don't see how anyone would NOT agree to that. Then one wouldn't encounter things like this, where one would argue to scrap an almost finished product and thus basically waste all what was put in already. Doing such a thing makes only sense if the benefits outweighs the cost *at that time* (aka, when you are debating to scrap it or not).
For all it's worth - and I'm sure it will be a great telescope - one can not also look at the downside of it. It has been exorbitantly expensive. Originally estimated at 1 billion, and 5 years development, it will now clock at 8,8 billion (more than 8 TIMES as much, thus!) and 11 years later...
For sure, I do not agree with those who say to just scrap it, since it gobbles up all the money that other space-science projects could use - at least at this point. It has come this far, and we'd poured so much money in it already, and it's now actually close to be finished, it would be foolhardy to shut it down now. We needed to do that years and billions of dollars ago. Now it's too late, and it would mean wasting all that money and time for nothing.
No, then we'd better get everything out of it that we can, costly as it may have been. No use stopping and returning if you're finally at the finishing line.
That said, one has to acknowledge it has been mismanaged to an awful degree, and cost-overruns were rampant, and no sensible control was exercised on it (or at least, they didn't had the balls to pull out the plug when it became apparent it would cost 50% more than expected, in which case, imho, ALL projects should be cut. Because if you're already at 50% overrun and you still have next to nothing built, it's bound to 'overrun' much, much more. But apart from it being far too costly, there is also the problem it took so much time as to have been outdated by now.
Technology didn't stand still. These days, one could achieve the same lightgathering power with creating three much cheaper and easier to build 2-meter mirrors as space-telescopes and use optical interferometry. And it would have a ten time BETTER resolution, or even more, depending how much the mirrors are apart while remaining stable and data-connected with a laser. And that for about a quarter as the price of the JWT.
In fact, for 8,8 billion, you could make something that would be 5 times bigger than the overwhelmingly large telescope ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ) of the EU (which has been cancelled due to it being considered too costly), on Earth. That would given you a FAR more powerful Telescope than what you have now, with only very minor drawbacks in comparison to the JWT.
All in all, thus, it has been a bad decision to keep the project alive with all the time and money-overruns. But now that it's finally finished...well, I hope it turns out to be a worthwhile machine, and a telescope that will brings uw many amazing things. There is no sense in crying over spilled milk, after all.