Content will either dry up, or it won't. If it does, the market will have instructed people that downloading stuff for free destroys the golden goose, and they will self-correct. If it doesn't dry up, and the content creators thrive (which seems to be the case so far, manipulated RIAA figures to the contrary), then the dubious content providers were wrong and the downloaders are right: downloads don't hurt the business model.
Something that you're overlooking is that those in power will want to maintain the status quo.
Hollywood, TV shows owners, etc. will want to ensure that the current format of 20 minutes of programming and 10 minutes of commercials is maintained, since it's easier to stick with what works than it would to deviate from it.
I am convinced that the market will only "self correct" when producing a TV show becomes a sure-fire way of losing money. Only when ALL the shows begin to lose money will things change. Otherwise, you'd better hope the commercials are as entertaining as the show's they're interrupting.
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Something that you're overlooking is that those in power will want to maintain the status quo.
Hollywood, TV shows owners, etc. will want to ensure that the current format of 20 minutes of programming and 10 minutes of commercials is maintained, since it's easier to stick with what works than it would to deviate from it.
I am convinced that the market will only "self correct" when producing a TV show becomes a sure-fire way of losing money. Only when ALL the shows begin to lose money will things change. Otherwise, you'd better hope the commercials are as entertaining as the show's they're interrupting.
"Looks like a rolled for a BFG 9000... I hit an Imp, so I kill everything and I win again!" Sounds like fun.
"...This really does bring a new meaning to the Lean Mean FAT grilling machine!" As opposed to a Lean Mean NTFS grilling machine...