Some customers are too expensive or troublesome to bother having.
This is why buffets ("All you can eat") reserve the right not to serve some jerks who self-righteously claim they have a right to eat $48 bucks worth of food after paying $10.
P2P was not foreseen. Things changed. The contracts will too. You are being willfully ignorant. Put yourself in their shoes for just 2 seconds and ask yourself would you keep yourself as a customer?
This is like the rock star who wouldn't let himself stay at his own chain of hotels because he typically did a few thousand bucks worth of damage to the rooms.
Windows XP... have never had a firefox crash with version 1 or 2. Now promoted so I have to use a company laptop without admin rights so I'm stuck with I.E.
Still on firefox 2 at home on XP. No crashes there.
I use NOSCRIPT and flashblocker. Noscript could protect you from a lot of crud.
Kill 10% of the performance but bounds check everything.
I use "noscript" and flashblocker and I havn't gotten anything yet. but a friend using firefox was trashed by a link a friend sent her. A lot of "legit" sites (esp lyrics) now inject stuff into your computer.
I want safety first, then after that,, safety. THEN maybe some new feature.
I agree. Their problem is they managed to basically pull monopolies and the government is telling them they better serve the community or else. It's a wierd hybrid think kinda like the phone service used to be-- part business, part socialism, part government service.
Say that you found out a way to earn or safe a lot of money by staying on the fitness machines 16 hours a day.
Suddenly, the 28 fitness machines they expected to service 5,000 people are being used from opening until closing by the same 28 people.
Do you think the fitness companies and their customers would say "ah well... they've got us because of our advertising unlimited service."
No- the next time your contract came up, it would have a clause that allowed them to force people to share the machines or something to protect them.
You are being unreasonable. The cable companies are trying a weaselly scummy way to get out of the situation instead of just doing what they should do up front.
1) Determine the real usage of their desired customer (say 20gb a month). 2) Advertise 24gb a month for one "low rate" with a "reasonable $1 per gb"
And eventually they will. Even if you have you current company in an iron clad contract, if it is losing money the situation *will* fix it self.
---
The current isp situation in america is a complete joke and anti-capitalistic. We basically have duopolies in 99% of cities between AT&T and a cable company. That needs to stop and be broken up. The internet wires, like the roads, should put be put by the government.
I must post this, my mind was made up before I read the article 7 seconds ago.
We can make snap decisions that are not purely in muscle memory.
Our brain builds subroutines that handle those situations (I'm in doom and i notice the weapon I was running to is gone and instantly turn to head to the next weapon).
Dale Carnegie says that most people make their decisions 90% based on emotions. If you successfully appeal to their emotions, they will FIT the logic and facts to their decision. This drives me crazy since I see it at work when I'm trying to get a logical decision- but at least now I know so I can use it to work with people instead of pissing them off giving them facts they don't like and reject.
Well, perhaps after he gets out of prison for 10 years, he can go get revenge and serve the 5 year sentence they give out for beating someone nearly but not totally to death. I'm sure after 10 years, he'll won't have much to lose and he'll have a lot of experience getting beaten and beating up people and be very nicely desocialized.
It's about 85 during the day (70 at night) until about the last few days of may. Then it goes to about 92 in june with highs up to 96 and highs down to the low 80's. July it is hot. Only 80's after storms otherwise 90's.
Global warming has changed the weather here. We used to have a 6 week winter that was pretty darn cold in feb/march. Now we get one week of winter in the middle of the most beautifully perfect weather from the end of september until the end of may. It moderated the summers. It used to be over 100 regularly in august-- the last few years at least it stays about 95-96.
It is also about 10% less humid than it used to be but humidity remains a problem. It is very good to buy a dehumidifier in the fall/spring because your A/C won't run but the humidity is 65-70% so the house becomes smothering unless you turn it into an ice box. Buy a dehumidifier for about $150 and for about $20 a month, it will keep your house at 45% humidity (and your AC will merely keep the house at the temperature you want it to be).
The high humidity and rain creates a verdant greenery on the north and east sides of town but the south and west are drier. Misquitos are everywhere-- you pretty much must spray for them or they will eat you alive after a series of summer storms for about a week. I keep my bedroom and hall door closed so they can't sneak in the bedroom and buzz my ear any more.
I think they need to SERIOUSLY consider what kind of trash these plants will be at end of life. I'm concerned about the amount of nano-particles being used.
They need to do the same for CFL (which suck for lighting and may be an environmental catastrophe in the making).
The chinese and indians can't afford $130 a barrel oil any more than the US.
Something like 15% of people making up to $50k a year are having their electricity and gas cut off now because they can't afford to live. Gasoline is taking up to 10% of some people's pay. People in India and China were getting subsidized gasoline but India stopped and China greatly reduced that subsidy because it is too expensive to maintain when you have a billion people in your population.
You are assuming the market is perfectly responsive and it is not. People in the US will use less oil for at least the next 6 years because of these $130 prices. Those who moved 60 miles closer to work will remain closer potentially for a couple decades.
Prices move around- they over and undershoot. You are parroting the popular wisdom. You might be right-- I might be wrong.
Based on my experience in various markets, I think everyone is behaving hysterically and are mistaken. Which is okay- they were acting like clueless idiots when they all went to 13mpg cars too.
I've seen so many frikkin "The sky is falling, the US is DOOOOOOMED" in my lifetime it gets a bit tiresome. As I said elsewhere, yes we are doomed- the population is getting out of hand. But before oil really runs out, we will have a few years of $60 to $70 a barrel oil again.
People switching to mass transit. People carpooling and cutting the number of cars on the road by 1/4 overnight People reducing gas usage by 4% in the most gas intensive using nation in the world in one frikkin month. People moving from 60 miles from work to 6 miles from work (and riding a bicycle for cripes sake). People over night getting rid of their trucks and trying to get prius (there are *none* for sale in my state right now-- they don't even list prices on the web site- you may what the dealer wants when they get one-- meanwhile $50k trucks are selling for under $30k-- over $20k OFF which is insane since $20k would buy a LOT of gasoline).
Supply vs demand...
And the demand drops permanently every day oil is above $100 a barrel.
It's okay- I get it, you are mostly young hyper types while I'm turning in a crusty old fart that tells you to "Get off my lawn!"
Look at the post about the price of oil and how it fell from $34 to $10 and STAYED there for most of a decade. The only reason you think it is stupid is that you do not understand due to ignorance. Ignorance can be cured by education.
Right now many alternative sources of energy are available that cost less than $130 a barrel. But they require LARGE investments. The day of kicking in $1,000 to start something up are gone. A single wind turbine is a 150-250 foot tall tower with multiple 70' long blades. That takes a looooong time to build, a lot of VERY expensive tooling.
So right now, Jlarroco, are you willing to invest your retirement savings in alternative energy which requires $101 oil to be profitable? Because the rest of the people with big money are not. They expect prices *could* (not will) drop back to $70 for a few years which would result in bleeding money for several years.
Governments subsidizing an energy type directly may or may not work- it helps some in the very early stages. However, providing a *stable* price environment that investors can count on for the next 10 years is much better once you get past the development stage.
You have a good point that less population could mean less advancement because the odds of having a one in a billion brain is now up to about 670% per year.
Once it is posted, it's like when a second programmer looks over your shoulder- suddenly you can see problems that were invisible as you worked over the code for the last hour.
I agree with most of your points (except the speculation mostly).
I would say that #2 is tricky because there is no magic bullet.
The correct answer is
solar, wind, nuclear (but be very careful), biofuels, better construction, wave, yada yada.
We are past the point where any one solution will be effective. If we tried to use solar exclusively, the prices would go through the roof. I think we need 10 10% solutions instead of looking for the one "100%" solution.
Likewise on automobiles, if we went 100% hydrogen- there would be some unknown backlash ( for example- that's a heck of a lot of water you are going to be pumping into the atmosphere which would alter the micro-climates).
Say that american reactors are 10,000 times as safe as chernobyl. There is *still* a chance that we get a chernobyl every year and if we have 100 of them, the odds are about 1%.
So what is the downside? An entire city and region evacuated and uninhabitable.
This is like the credit fiasco we are in- they judged the risk of it happening very low-- but the consequences of it happening are very high.
If the risk is non-zero and the outcome is a catastrophe, it's a tough call.
As an extreme example..
Say that I created a new energy process that had a 1/1,000,000,000,000 chance of destroying the earth instantaneously but which would provide enough energy to support 20 billion people or let 6 billion people live like kings. Would it be worth using? (The age of the earth is only 4,500,000,000 after all so only a roughly 4.5% chance it would have failed since the earth was created).
It is very hard for the human mind to process such risks. We tend to over or underestimate risks based on 5-10 years of experience.
However, China just raises prices on oil by 17% overnight. They have to do that three more times to get up to the world price. It is bleeding money to subsidize 3/4 priced oil.
Last I checked, China has 47 cars per 1000 people- a fraction of the U.S. so your point is entirely valid.
However because of natural cycles, oil prices will fall and probably stay down for a 3-4 years. The current price of the "last barrel" is 50 dollars. That's the real price of oil. Everything above that price is speculation.
NPR had an interesting story. Apparently when china and india really came on line in the 90s/early 00's a huge amount of new wealth was created. That wealth has been looking for something-- anything to invest in. And it is causing a lot of bubbles until saner investment opportunities come along.
Slashdot Mirror
No.
Some customers are too expensive or troublesome to bother having.
This is why buffets ("All you can eat") reserve the right not to serve some jerks who self-righteously claim they have a right to eat $48 bucks worth of food after paying $10.
P2P was not foreseen. Things changed. The contracts will too. You are being willfully ignorant. Put yourself in their shoes for just 2 seconds and ask yourself would you keep yourself as a customer?
This is like the rock star who wouldn't let himself stay at his own chain of hotels because he typically did a few thousand bucks worth of damage to the rooms.
That is sooo wierd! Thank you! I should have at least tried.
I wonder what they mean by no admin rights / locked down then?
Given the societal benefits and the amount of business that take place over the wires, they are too much like "roads" to not be run by the government.
Windows XP... have never had a firefox crash with version 1 or 2. Now promoted so I have to use a company laptop without admin rights so I'm stuck with I.E.
Still on firefox 2 at home on XP. No crashes there.
I use NOSCRIPT and flashblocker. Noscript could protect you from a lot of crud.
Kill 10% of the performance but bounds check everything.
I use "noscript" and flashblocker and I havn't gotten anything yet. but a friend using firefox was trashed by a link a friend sent her. A lot of "legit" sites (esp lyrics) now inject stuff into your computer.
I want safety first, then after that ,, safety. THEN maybe some new feature.
He must request a new one which arrives after a few days.
He can call in but if the market is melting up or down, there are not enough phone lines at a discount broker (they count on you using the computer).
I agree. Their problem is they managed to basically pull monopolies and the government is telling them they better serve the community or else. It's a wierd hybrid think kinda like the phone service used to be-- part business, part socialism, part government service.
Say that you found out a way to earn or safe a lot of money by staying on the fitness machines 16 hours a day.
Suddenly, the 28 fitness machines they expected to service 5,000 people are being used from opening until closing by the same 28 people.
Do you think the fitness companies and their customers would say "ah well... they've got us because of our advertising unlimited service."
No- the next time your contract came up, it would have a clause that allowed them to force people to share the machines or something to protect them.
You are being unreasonable. The cable companies are trying a weaselly scummy way to get out of the situation instead of just doing what they should do up front.
1) Determine the real usage of their desired customer (say 20gb a month).
2) Advertise 24gb a month for one "low rate" with a "reasonable $1 per gb"
And eventually they will. Even if you have you current company in an iron clad contract, if it is losing money the situation *will* fix it self.
---
The current isp situation in america is a complete joke and anti-capitalistic. We basically have duopolies in 99% of cities between AT&T and a cable company. That needs to stop and be broken up. The internet wires, like the roads, should put be put by the government.
Friend of mine has one for his stock accounts. It periodically drift out of time sync (a little more than once a year).
Hate to be out of sync when you really wanted to log in.
Yes it does.
I'm just trying some way to pull hitler in to finish it.
I must post this, my mind was made up before I read the article 7 seconds ago.
We can make snap decisions that are not purely in muscle memory.
Our brain builds subroutines that handle those situations (I'm in doom and i notice the weapon I was running to is gone and instantly turn to head to the next weapon).
Dale Carnegie says that most people make their decisions 90% based on emotions. If you successfully appeal to their emotions, they will FIT the logic and facts to their decision. This drives me crazy since I see it at work when I'm trying to get a logical decision- but at least now I know so I can use it to work with people instead of pissing them off giving them facts they don't like and reject.
We all pay the same amount of freeways too.
Yet speed limits enforce order... those guys who own sports cars that can break 100 are screwed.
America internet is a joke however and the speed limit is effectively 30mph because we are still on dirt roads.
Well, perhaps after he gets out of prison for 10 years, he can go get revenge and serve the 5 year sentence they give out for beating someone nearly but not totally to death. I'm sure after 10 years, he'll won't have much to lose and he'll have a lot of experience getting beaten and beating up people and be very nicely desocialized.
That houston temperature is an exageration.
It's about 85 during the day (70 at night) until about the last few days of may. Then it goes to about 92 in june with highs up to 96 and highs down to the low 80's. July it is hot. Only 80's after storms otherwise 90's.
Global warming has changed the weather here. We used to have a 6 week winter that was pretty darn cold in feb/march. Now we get one week of winter in the middle of the most beautifully perfect weather from the end of september until the end of may. It moderated the summers. It used to be over 100 regularly in august-- the last few years at least it stays about 95-96.
It is also about 10% less humid than it used to be but humidity remains a problem. It is very good to buy a dehumidifier in the fall/spring because your A/C won't run but the humidity is 65-70% so the house becomes smothering unless you turn it into an ice box. Buy a dehumidifier for about $150 and for about $20 a month, it will keep your house at 45% humidity (and your AC will merely keep the house at the temperature you want it to be).
The high humidity and rain creates a verdant greenery on the north and east sides of town but the south and west are drier. Misquitos are everywhere-- you pretty much must spray for them or they will eat you alive after a series of summer storms for about a week. I keep my bedroom and hall door closed so they can't sneak in the bedroom and buzz my ear any more.
I think they need to SERIOUSLY consider what kind of trash these plants will be at end of life.
I'm concerned about the amount of nano-particles being used.
They need to do the same for CFL (which suck for lighting and may be an environmental catastrophe in the making).
The chinese and indians can't afford $130 a barrel oil any more than the US.
Something like 15% of people making up to $50k a year are having their electricity and gas cut off now because they can't afford to live.
Gasoline is taking up to 10% of some people's pay. People in India and China were getting subsidized gasoline but India stopped and China greatly reduced that subsidy because it is too expensive to maintain when you have a billion people in your population.
You are assuming the market is perfectly responsive and it is not. People in the US will use less oil for at least the next 6 years because of these $130 prices. Those who moved 60 miles closer to work will remain closer potentially for a couple decades.
Prices move around- they over and undershoot. You are parroting the popular wisdom. You might be right-- I might be wrong.
Based on my experience in various markets, I think everyone is behaving hysterically and are mistaken. Which is okay- they were acting like clueless idiots when they all went to 13mpg cars too.
I've seen so many frikkin "The sky is falling, the US is DOOOOOOMED" in my lifetime it gets a bit tiresome. As I said elsewhere, yes we are doomed- the population is getting out of hand. But before oil really runs out, we will have a few years of $60 to $70 a barrel oil again.
People switching to mass transit.
People carpooling and cutting the number of cars on the road by 1/4 overnight
People reducing gas usage by 4% in the most gas intensive using nation in the world in one frikkin month.
People moving from 60 miles from work to 6 miles from work (and riding a bicycle for cripes sake).
People over night getting rid of their trucks and trying to get prius (there are *none* for sale in my state right now-- they don't even list prices on the web site- you may what the dealer wants when they get one-- meanwhile $50k trucks are selling for under $30k-- over $20k OFF which is insane since $20k would buy a LOT of gasoline).
Supply vs demand...
And the demand drops permanently every day oil is above $100 a barrel.
It's okay- I get it, you are mostly young hyper types while I'm turning in a crusty old fart that tells you to "Get off my lawn!"
Jlarocco.
Look at the post about the price of oil and how it fell from $34 to $10 and STAYED there for most of a decade.
The only reason you think it is stupid is that you do not understand due to ignorance. Ignorance can be cured by education.
Right now many alternative sources of energy are available that cost less than $130 a barrel. But they require LARGE investments. The day of kicking in $1,000 to start something up are gone. A single wind turbine is a 150-250 foot tall tower with multiple 70' long blades. That takes a looooong time to build, a lot of VERY expensive tooling.
So right now, Jlarroco, are you willing to invest your retirement savings in alternative energy which requires $101 oil to be profitable? Because the rest of the people with big money are not. They expect prices *could* (not will) drop back to $70 for a few years which would result in bleeding money for several years.
Governments subsidizing an energy type directly may or may not work- it helps some in the very early stages. However, providing a *stable* price environment that investors can count on for the next 10 years is much better once you get past the development stage.
You have a good point that less population could mean less advancement because the odds of having a one in a billion brain is now up to about 670% per year.
Your suspicion is incorrect however.
And how exactly is saying "here it comes" getting in your way?
Wouldn't make a difference.
Once it is posted, it's like when a second programmer looks over your shoulder- suddenly you can see problems that were invisible as you worked over the code for the last hour.
I agree with most of your points (except the speculation mostly).
I would say that #2 is tricky because there is no magic bullet.
The correct answer is
solar, wind, nuclear (but be very careful), biofuels, better construction, wave, yada yada.
We are past the point where any one solution will be effective. If we tried to use solar exclusively, the prices would go through the roof. I think we need 10 10% solutions instead of looking for the one "100%" solution.
Likewise on automobiles, if we went 100% hydrogen- there would be some unknown backlash ( for example- that's a heck of a lot of water you are going to be pumping into the atmosphere which would alter the micro-climates).
Say that american reactors are 10,000 times as safe as chernobyl. There is *still* a chance that we get a chernobyl every year and if we have 100 of them, the odds are about 1%.
So what is the downside? An entire city and region evacuated and uninhabitable.
This is like the credit fiasco we are in- they judged the risk of it happening very low-- but the consequences of it happening are very high.
If the risk is non-zero and the outcome is a catastrophe, it's a tough call.
As an extreme example..
Say that I created a new energy process that had a 1/1,000,000,000,000 chance of destroying the earth instantaneously but which would provide enough energy to support 20 billion people or let 6 billion people live like kings. Would it be worth using? (The age of the earth is only 4,500,000,000 after all so only a roughly 4.5% chance it would have failed since the earth was created).
It is very hard for the human mind to process such risks. We tend to over or underestimate risks based on 5-10 years of experience.
They are definitely factors.
However, China just raises prices on oil by 17% overnight. They have to do that three more times to get up to the world price. It is bleeding money to subsidize 3/4 priced oil.
Last I checked, China has 47 cars per 1000 people- a fraction of the U.S. so your point is entirely valid.
However because of natural cycles, oil prices will fall and probably stay down for a 3-4 years. The current price of the "last barrel" is 50 dollars. That's the real price of oil. Everything above that price is speculation.
NPR had an interesting story.
Apparently when china and india really came on line in the 90s/early 00's a huge amount of new wealth was created. That wealth has been looking for something-- anything to invest in. And it is causing a lot of bubbles until saner investment opportunities come along.
Picture prices as the edge of the ocean.
While the fundamental location of the shoreline (true price) is fixed,
The waves come in and splash up, and then they recede.
And then on much longer periods you have tides.
And then on much longer periods you have storms.
---
The news of the day.. everything they attribute the behavior of prices and the market to moves the real shoreline by only fractions of an inch.
This is true in any market that I've ever seen.
There is no conspiracy. And whenever prices for something to to the moon, they will be coming back down hard.
Currently, all you can see is the high prices and reasons why they will be high and higher forever.
But it doesn't happen that way in real life.