Sorry guys, allot of good arguments about exchange rates, racism, corporate greed, and quality of services as regards offshoring work to India, but these are the facts...
The United States will still remain the powerhouse for technology and technology jobs including software and infrastructure professionals, period! We are still one of the TOP places for offshoring of services and according to three surveys I've read, will remain so! Funny...we read about Indians replacing 30% of all software programmers in the US by 2010 (from analysts like Forrester and Gartner), when really more foreign countries come here and buy stuff from the US in terms of services than we offshore, at present. And the stats show that maybe 1-5% of all technology services procvided in the US are pushed overseas at present. Thats nothing! That speaks VOLUMES for the quality of tech services we provide as a country, to ourselves and the world. The loss of jobs is purely based on poor business decisions and technology ignorant CEO's in the US who are now getting burned by those decisions, from the articles Ive read.
Second, according to Venture LLC, Indians on average make roughly 1/4 what techies in the West make, yet that has risen 10-30% per year. Forget about inflation and the security risks and the HUGE attrition rates of Indians and the mass movement to "captive" corporate employment hiring versus direct purchases of that labor pool. All those things also affect the failures in offshoring, but the HYPE is around the salary differences, when that has almost NOTHING to do with cost...or at present, or lack there of. Venture says that cost savings from work overseas was 9% and maybe 10% OF THAT was due to labor. That means labor cost savings were around 1%!!! Thats nothing...so has NOTHING to do with cost. The issue is it takes 4-12 Indians what it takes one high quality tech professional in the US to do. There is no cost savings when you measure PRODUCTIVITY! Or managemnet costs involved. What does that say about the US techie versus offshored Indians? Or the poor business decisions mangagers in this country have made???
Next, I work for a tech services firm and was the only one left in our development team in 2002 when the last developers were cut by our CEO. Ive been to many corproate board meetings, met many clients and their CEO's and written the code that supports many many corproate products online. Now our company is booming again and we have allot of work and tons coming. Salaries are way up, and we have people from all over the world working with us. Its even hard to find talent. From what I see its clearly an advantage to hire US people over foreigners. This has nothing to do with race...its culture! People nutured in our country and in our corporate environment have HUGE talents and can innovation on a dime and wear many technology "hats". We can put one developer on a very large c# project and it comes out nearly bug free. The productivity and code quality level is unmatched. We have tried hiring small teams of Indians and it takes 4-5 guys to work on one web application...when our team can have one guy building several at once. There is no comparison in quality and productivity...but managers and dumb business people dont see that in technology and the work professionals do...its like we still have this stigma of disrespect from upper level management. Why, when we are the ones managing the infrastructure, the profits from bug-free software, the competitive edge in superior customer support. etc. etc.? But that is changing.....
From my experience, here is what has happened:
US CEO's and business managers are the DUMBEST people in the WORLD as regards technology. Thats a a fact. I cannot tell you how many times Ive met CEO's who have NO CLUE what the technology or spec docs they paid thousands for did! Nor do they or their managers know what their technology people did in their organization before they laid them off. I cannot tell you how much damage US business people have
Well, maybe that got your attention....buts its true! Jobs are back for IT people, and just go check out jobs on dice.com, computerjobs.com, and monster. Its a slow steady climb with some big salaries coming back.
Ive read through allot of the comments on this article and agree with nearly everyone's anti-CEO, anti-Indian, anti-offshoring, pro-technology, pro-job stance. ANd so want to add a positive note for everyone....
First, offshoring is failing more and more everyday...read these studies:
In addition, east coast tech jobs have shot up almost 40% in some cities the past six months according to another article I read. Demand appears to be high again. Technology jobs, as of end of June 2005 are averaging about 20-30% growth right now, and salaries for some positions are approaching 100k! Its not "booming" yet, but I predict thats coming, with the current trend away from computer science in this country. But, I see this HUGE momentum coming for IT software and infrastructure jobs, despite all this BS about offshoring and erroneous claims that Indian software programmers equal US software programmers and can and will replace them. It aint going to happen, period!!!
And the data shows that, apparently. It just is not the case. Besides, we all should have known, you CANNOT replace an apply with an orange. It takes very VERY creative and experienced and innovative US tech minds to create successful projects from the sloppy mess US business people create at most upper level company managemnet teams. No WONDER IT and offshoring is failing on so many levels. Business still hasnt learned IT nor grown to understand what it is smart IT people have to do to keep the wagon rolling at most companies....it aint easy and those skills still are worth some bucks. It seems we are in a learning phase as regards buisness and that fact, right now.
So, if you are in IT, just go to dice.com tonight, monster or computerjobs.com and take a look at the US IT jobs businesses now are starting to post. There is allot of IT work out there, looks like, and more to come I would bet! Besides, with all of business processes moving into IT dependent scenarios, its going to take allot more that some 21 year old "IT greenhorn" Indians in cubicles half a world away to heal the wounded pocket books and solve the growing IT business complexities found in many companies tofday (and now created by your average IT "illiterate", fat, old and stupid US business manager/executive found in todays companys). I mean, when will these business people give the US Information Technology Professional the respect they deserve? How DARE they assume technology can be given a bright red bow, packaged up, and shoved overseas and they get the same quality with little cost! Thats assuming anyone with some brains and a PC and an Internet connection can call themsleves a "software engineer" and solve complex banking and business process solutions overnight! IT will NEVER be that way...for every automated task they replace with software or an Indian "grunt", ten more companies drop new proprietary software solutions on the stack that someone somewhere has to learn, train on and innovate on. IT is getting bigger and badder with each passing day and so will the jobs and salaries in the US, despite offshoring....and its obvious failures. That will just fuel a fire I see developing in this field!
So, as far as IT jobs goes my friend, and I have this sneaky feeling this time next year, allot of CEO's will be "defrocked", a ton of new expensive IT jobs/positions will be available, Gartner and Forrester especially will be laying off some people for printing predi
The central problem is that companies obviously made the false assumption that IT is easy and just fire your knowledge workers and pass that baton to sales and managers. They then made the false assumption that because IT is "automating" tasks, which is only partially true, that IT gets easier and so they let more IT departments go. Then they made another false assumption that Indians can do the same job cheaper, that managment would be minimal, that they would read their minds and come up with "cool software" and services exactly as they needed....proving that all the failed US IT projects by US teams would be rectified....and if not, at least via some cost savings if and when the outsorced work matured. They then hired semi-competent Busienss techies thinking its just a managment issue at this point.
Forget that more and more busienss processes, infrastructure, profitability centers, support, innovation, and competitiveness is increasingly BASED ON IT now. Forget that as good and pervasive as technology is becoming, thats its also getting more complex. Forget that busienss people STILL DONT KNOW TECHNOLOGY, and so make false assumptions based on surfing the web in their underwear at home on the weekends, or what some 70 year old IT illiterate CEO spits out in a boardroom.
The fact is that as IT complexity, diversity, dependence, innovation, and customer service moves into every facet of business the next 10 years or so, the shear number, variety and volume of IT needs and staff requirements will have to be addressed in the US. So I think business is stuck and will have to address that, especially if they keep getting burned by offshoring as is the case in some instances recently. Because project management and senior IT managment really has not solved the original problems of NOT knowing IT, not coming from an IT background, or having little knowledge in building good clean spec docs for software programmers, or evaluations of new technologies, this "band-aide" of firing professionsals in US IT departments and hiring a single CIO with a beefier salary and a handfull of managers will continue to fail, in my opinion.
Guys, I sympathize with all your complaints about tech jobs and not finding work. I also was a victim of downsizing and layoffs myslef in 2000. But I went back to school and have been working as a programmer for the last 4 years and seeing lots of work out there in this industry and opportunity for all. Its not like the boom years but there is work to be done. Most of the web stuff is getting so competitive that its not in demand but its out there. But.NET and high level web development is growing. Every business out there Ive met with is slowly moving everything online or into thin-client apps now.
Also, the push and pulls of IT supply and demand right now are confusing are diverse. From offshoring to more competition for IT services globally to more players to more trained IT people in India to less in the US, etc. etc. But when the smoke clears I cannot imagine with everything and everyone moving to digital, thatthere will npot be a HUGE demand for programmers and IT people in all forms to manage and build it. So, its a very good field and like someone says, supply and rising salaries will eventually drive more people back to the field.
Its obvious that so many of you are so bitter abotu your experienec with companies, and thats whats hurting the whole perspective.
I dont care how ignorant or dumb CIO's and project managers, CEO's, and senior business people are towards IT right now. It is and will eventually bite them in the rear when they realize they have to go back to the original model and pay and worship the US IT person as a legitimate and valued asset in their organization. That is slowly happening now, I believe. Despite the tools and offshoring replacing some of that, the field is expanding and diversifying so much that there is allot of work out there finally here in 2005....and more to come.
The article here is CORRECT! Technology is returning and so are the jobs for programmers in the US, but there wont be enough gradates and workers to fill the demand. Microsoft and IBM and these companies are correct, no matter what anyone says in this blog. Those jobs are coming back and there is and will be a shortage!
That may seem strange to most of you who may have lost jobs, but seems perfectly logical to me. Ive kept my software job the past 6 years, so I know.
Look at the history of other new innovative technologies like the railroad, electricity and any technology. The internet and current IT trends are following the SAME PATH. The railroad in England was a huge speculative industry inthe 1840's and 50's. Even poor people had stocks in it and when it bubbled and crashed, by the 1850's, allot of people lost money and jobs. There were all these people that bailed out of the technology. Then it came back and came back with a vengeance all over the world and it remained strong for the next 75 years as the technology blossomed and it enabled all kinds of other industries. Thats what technology is doing now...we are on the edge of the rebound and its all uphill from here for techies, I believe. You just have to retrain and stay on top of the changes. Old skills are NOT in demand. True, new self-programming software technologies and enabling software building tools will continue to be built that enable more non-software type jobs. But I think the armies of smart science people required to build these types of programs for all kinds of indistries, then customize and manage those apps will increase the next 10 to 50 years and require lots of computer people, especially talenetd software programmers here in the US. So, any drops in science recruiting now will be felt by business later. How that translates into better salaries for current programmers is up in the air, but I think likely, as this unfolds the next couple of years. Think about it...how can the demand for IT people not grow, with the internet and business and even public systems all migrating to a data-driven systems now. Data everywhere, and tons of people needed to manage and analyze it!
Lastly, another reason we have fewer science people graduating is our society looks down on intellectualism and looks up to athletics and entertainers. Thats pathetic! Smart people are considered geeks and nerds and dumb, drug-using athletes are worshipped by our children....go figure?!? A recent study showed yound men want to be a sports star now over even doctors! Thats bad....we need to reverse this fascination with womanizing athletes which contribute NOTHING to our society and teach our kids to cherish and look up to intellectuals and artists. Thats the challenge for our society....and a difficult one, if we want to graduate more engineers and scientists!
Here are the facts guys....
1. In the recent past (last 5 years) there have been lots of layoffs and lots of lost jobs in IT
2. That HAS turned away allot of people from IT, so its true numbers of people pursing upper level degrees in scienec is dropping
3. "Offshoring" of IT to India and now China has and will affect IT jobs in the US, but the numbers Im seeing are maybe 5% of US jobs directly affected by this...its not as bad as you think
4. According to article on zdnet.com and here, its turning out with each passing day INDIAN PROGRAMMERS ARE CREATING SLOPPY WORK AND MANAGED IT PROJECTS DONT HAVE ROI's inline with cost savings as expecetd (actually cost more!), and a number of companies are turning back to the US and other sources for outsourced IT, as the offshore model in India appears to not work as most companies thought. This return is currently unfolding when you see all the current US outsourcing startups inside the US now that recruit US IT people, albiet with smaller salaries. If you dont believe me, check out some recent Gartner studies that show Indian outsourced projects have cost more, have lower quality, and there is a HUGE backlash thats unfolding against phone support from India. Check out DELL's current stance on this as well.
5. US programmers INNOVATE, and that will never change...thats something OUR COUNTRY nurtures, and its NOT tied completely to education systems. It will take time for US companies to see this and its beginning to unfold, such that more companies are hiring techies in-house
6. Good software "talent", no matter in the US or India or China, is a limited commodity, and thats what Bill Gates recently mentioned...and what this article is really saying. There is a decreasing number of "techies" with both the talent, AND the skills. Thats further inflamed by loss of educated, retrained techies now. Since the world is from here forward a tech world, you will see salaries go up radically, I believe for the "talent". You need to prove you have that edge if you are a US IT person and want the big bucks which will be coming back....
7. I Agree....we will see a HUGE number of jobs and upper level skill sets (c#.NET, DBM's, etc.) that will be in huge demand but not available in the US. Jobs ARE coming back. Go to dice.com and do a search for.NET jobs. There are a HUGE number already that are not being filled. In a few years that will increase. Bill Gates is right.
8. FACT: Even if you are in IT and cant find work now, you need to get retrained in the newest technology, or YOU WILL BE COMPETING SALAREY-WISE against foreigners who also can do your job. BUT, because offshoring is currently NOT working so well, expect soon, many high paying jobs in nearly ALL LEVELS OF IT. Thats my prediction
9. Now for the unknown: Its true software programmers such as myself DONT seem to be showing job increases currently in big numbers but service/business hybrid jobs are growing like crazy!...this because there are allot of software jobs being replaced by offshoring and software that currenlty solves busienss process problems. That will continue UNTIL BUSINESS REALIZES THAT just because you program has NOTHING to do with quality OR innovation. Those are two things that make compoanies cometitive, so I feel will require time for US companies to teach their CIO's to nurture again the original IT model of highly skilled US programmers paid well to innovate the core software that creates value for the company....that WILL return. I predict very soon a huge diversification of the software programming field as well that should be inclusive of more and more people, all obver the globe. Software now is both the support and the income-producing edge to all companies. No company can afford to undervalue that by hiring grunts. Doesnnt matter how talented your project managers. You cant replace innovative US programming!
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Sorry guys, allot of good arguments about exchange rates, racism, corporate greed, and quality of services as regards offshoring work to India, but these are the facts...
The United States will still remain the powerhouse for technology and technology jobs including software and infrastructure professionals, period! We are still one of the TOP places for offshoring of services and according to three surveys I've read, will remain so!
Funny...we read about Indians replacing 30% of all software programmers in the US by 2010 (from analysts like Forrester and Gartner), when really more foreign countries come here and buy stuff from the US in terms of services than we offshore, at present. And the stats show that maybe 1-5% of all technology services procvided in the US are pushed overseas at present. Thats nothing! That speaks VOLUMES for the quality of tech services we provide as a country, to ourselves and the world. The loss of jobs is purely based on poor business decisions and technology ignorant CEO's in the US who are now getting burned by those decisions, from the articles Ive read.
Second, according to Venture LLC, Indians on average make roughly 1/4 what techies in the West make, yet that has risen 10-30% per year. Forget about inflation and the security risks and the HUGE attrition rates of Indians and the mass movement to "captive" corporate employment hiring versus direct purchases of that labor pool. All those things also affect the failures in offshoring, but the HYPE is around the salary differences, when that has almost NOTHING to do with cost...or at present, or lack there of. Venture says that cost savings from work overseas was 9% and maybe 10% OF THAT was due to labor. That means labor cost savings were around 1%!!! Thats nothing...so has NOTHING to do with cost. The issue is it takes 4-12 Indians what it takes one high quality tech professional in the US to do. There is no cost savings when you measure PRODUCTIVITY! Or managemnet costs involved. What does that say about the US techie versus offshored Indians? Or the poor business decisions mangagers in this country have made???
Next, I work for a tech services firm and was the only one left in our development team in 2002 when the last developers were cut by our CEO. Ive been to many corproate board meetings, met many clients and their CEO's and written the code that supports many many corproate products online. Now our company is booming again and we have allot of work and tons coming. Salaries are way up, and we have people from all over the world working with us. Its even hard to find talent. From what I see its clearly an advantage to hire US people over foreigners. This has nothing to do with race...its culture! People nutured in our country and in our corporate environment have HUGE talents and can innovation on a dime and wear many technology "hats". We can put one developer on a very large c# project and it comes out nearly bug free. The productivity and code quality level is unmatched. We have tried hiring small teams of Indians and it takes 4-5 guys to work on one web application...when our team can have one guy building several at once. There is no comparison in quality and productivity...but managers and dumb business people dont see that in technology and the work professionals do...its like we still have this stigma of disrespect from upper level management. Why, when we are the ones managing the infrastructure, the profits from bug-free software, the competitive edge in superior customer support. etc. etc.? But that is changing.....
From my experience, here is what has happened:
US CEO's and business managers are the DUMBEST people in the WORLD as regards technology. Thats a a fact. I cannot tell you how many times Ive met CEO's who have NO CLUE what the technology or spec docs they paid thousands for did! Nor do they or their managers know what their technology people did in their organization before they laid them off. I cannot tell you how much damage US business people have
Well, maybe that got your attention....buts its true! Jobs are back for IT people, and just go check out jobs on dice.com, computerjobs.com, and monster. Its a slow steady climb with some big salaries coming back.
Ive read through allot of the comments on this article and agree with nearly everyone's anti-CEO, anti-Indian, anti-offshoring, pro-technology, pro-job stance. ANd so want to add a positive note for everyone....
First, offshoring is failing more and more everyday...read these studies:
http://www.stormdetector.com/essays/us_outsourcing _callingachange.pdf
http://www.stormdetector.com/essays/DiamondCluster 2005OutsourcingStudy.pdf
In addition, east coast tech jobs have shot up almost 40% in some cities the past six months according to another article I read. Demand appears to be high again. Technology jobs, as of end of June 2005 are averaging about 20-30% growth right now, and salaries for some positions are approaching 100k! Its not "booming" yet, but I predict thats coming, with the current trend away from computer science in this country. But, I see this HUGE momentum coming for IT software and infrastructure jobs, despite all this BS about offshoring and erroneous claims that Indian software programmers equal US software programmers and can and will replace them. It aint going to happen, period!!!
And the data shows that, apparently. It just is not the case. Besides, we all should have known, you CANNOT replace an apply with an orange. It takes very VERY creative and experienced and innovative US tech minds to create successful projects from the sloppy mess US business people create at most upper level company managemnet teams. No WONDER IT and offshoring is failing on so many levels. Business still hasnt learned IT nor grown to understand what it is smart IT people have to do to keep the wagon rolling at most companies....it aint easy and those skills still are worth some bucks. It seems we are in a learning phase as regards buisness and that fact, right now.
So, if you are in IT, just go to dice.com tonight, monster or computerjobs.com and take a look at the US IT jobs businesses now are starting to post. There is allot of IT work out there, looks like, and more to come I would bet! Besides, with all of business processes moving into IT dependent scenarios, its going to take allot more that some 21 year old "IT greenhorn" Indians in cubicles half a world away to heal the wounded pocket books and solve the growing IT business complexities found in many companies tofday (and now created by your average IT "illiterate", fat, old and stupid US business manager/executive found in todays companys). I mean, when will these business people give the US Information Technology Professional the respect they deserve? How DARE they assume technology can be given a bright red bow, packaged up, and shoved overseas and they get the same quality with little cost! Thats assuming anyone with some brains and a PC and an Internet connection can call themsleves a "software engineer" and solve complex banking and business process solutions overnight! IT will NEVER be that way...for every automated task they replace with software or an Indian "grunt", ten more companies drop new proprietary software solutions on the stack that someone somewhere has to learn, train on and innovate on. IT is getting bigger and badder with each passing day and so will the jobs and salaries in the US, despite offshoring....and its obvious failures. That will just fuel a fire I see developing in this field!
So, as far as IT jobs goes my friend, and I have this sneaky feeling this time next year, allot of CEO's will be "defrocked", a ton of new expensive IT jobs/positions will be available, Gartner and Forrester especially will be laying off some people for printing predi
The central problem is that companies obviously made the false assumption that IT is easy and just fire your knowledge workers and pass that baton to sales and managers. They then made the false assumption that because IT is "automating" tasks, which is only partially true, that IT gets easier and so they let more IT departments go. Then they made another false assumption that Indians can do the same job cheaper, that managment would be minimal, that they would read their minds and come up with "cool software" and services exactly as they needed....proving that all the failed US IT projects by US teams would be rectified....and if not, at least via some cost savings if and when the outsorced work matured. They then hired semi-competent Busienss techies thinking its just a managment issue at this point.
Forget that more and more busienss processes, infrastructure, profitability centers, support, innovation, and competitiveness is increasingly BASED ON IT now. Forget that as good and pervasive as technology is becoming, thats its also getting more complex. Forget that busienss people STILL DONT KNOW TECHNOLOGY, and so make false assumptions based on surfing the web in their underwear at home on the weekends, or what some 70 year old IT illiterate CEO spits out in a boardroom.
The fact is that as IT complexity, diversity, dependence, innovation, and customer service moves into every facet of business the next 10 years or so, the shear number, variety and volume of IT needs and staff requirements will have to be addressed in the US. So I think business is stuck and will have to address that, especially if they keep getting burned by offshoring as is the case in some instances recently. Because project management and senior IT managment really has not solved the original problems of NOT knowing IT, not coming from an IT background, or having little knowledge in building good clean spec docs for software programmers, or evaluations of new technologies, this "band-aide" of firing professionsals in US IT departments and hiring a single CIO with a beefier salary and a handfull of managers will continue to fail, in my opinion.
Guys, I sympathize with all your complaints about tech jobs and not finding work. I also was a victim of downsizing and layoffs myslef in 2000. But I went back to school and have been working as a programmer for the last 4 years and seeing lots of work out there in this industry and opportunity for all. Its not like the boom years but there is work to be done. Most of the web stuff is getting so competitive that its not in demand but its out there. But .NET and high level web development is growing. Every business out there Ive met with is slowly moving everything online or into thin-client apps now.
Also, the push and pulls of IT supply and demand right now are confusing are diverse. From offshoring to more competition for IT services globally to more players to more trained IT people in India to less in the US, etc. etc. But when the smoke clears I cannot imagine with everything and everyone moving to digital, thatthere will npot be a HUGE demand for programmers and IT people in all forms to manage and build it. So, its a very good field and like someone says, supply and rising salaries will eventually drive more people back to the field.
Its obvious that so many of you are so bitter abotu your experienec with companies, and thats whats hurting the whole perspective.
I dont care how ignorant or dumb CIO's and project managers, CEO's, and senior business people are towards IT right now. It is and will eventually bite them in the rear when they realize they have to go back to the original model and pay and worship the US IT person as a legitimate and valued asset in their organization. That is slowly happening now, I believe. Despite the tools and offshoring replacing some of that, the field is expanding and diversifying so much that there is allot of work out there finally here in 2005....and more to come.
Read about unhappiness in outsourcing in India and new IT jobs in rural America growing:
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-5685170.html http://news.zdnet.com/2100-3513_22-5562732.html
The article here is CORRECT! Technology is returning and so are the jobs for programmers in the US, but there wont be enough gradates and workers to fill the demand. Microsoft and IBM and these companies are correct, no matter what anyone says in this blog. Those jobs are coming back and there is and will be a shortage!
That may seem strange to most of you who may have lost jobs, but seems perfectly logical to me. Ive kept my software job the past 6 years, so I know.
Look at the history of other new innovative technologies like the railroad, electricity and any technology. The internet and current IT trends are following the SAME PATH. The railroad in England was a huge speculative industry inthe 1840's and 50's. Even poor people had stocks in it and when it bubbled and crashed, by the 1850's, allot of people lost money and jobs. There were all these people that bailed out of the technology. Then it came back and came back with a vengeance all over the world and it remained strong for the next 75 years as the technology blossomed and it enabled all kinds of other industries. Thats what technology is doing now...we are on the edge of the rebound and its all uphill from here for techies, I believe. You just have to retrain and stay on top of the changes. Old skills are NOT in demand. True, new self-programming software technologies and enabling software building tools will continue to be built that enable more non-software type jobs. But I think the armies of smart science people required to build these types of programs for all kinds of indistries, then customize and manage those apps will increase the next 10 to 50 years and require lots of computer people, especially talenetd software programmers here in the US. So, any drops in science recruiting now will be felt by business later. How that translates into better salaries for current programmers is up in the air, but I think likely, as this unfolds the next couple of years. Think about it...how can the demand for IT people not grow, with the internet and business and even public systems all migrating to a data-driven systems now. Data everywhere, and tons of people needed to manage and analyze it!
Lastly, another reason we have fewer science people graduating is our society looks down on intellectualism and looks up to athletics and entertainers. Thats pathetic! Smart people are considered geeks and nerds and dumb, drug-using athletes are worshipped by our children....go figure?!? A recent study showed yound men want to be a sports star now over even doctors! Thats bad....we need to reverse this fascination with womanizing athletes which contribute NOTHING to our society and teach our kids to cherish and look up to intellectuals and artists. Thats the challenge for our society....and a difficult one, if we want to graduate more engineers and scientists!
Here are the facts guys.... 1. In the recent past (last 5 years) there have been lots of layoffs and lots of lost jobs in IT 2. That HAS turned away allot of people from IT, so its true numbers of people pursing upper level degrees in scienec is dropping 3. "Offshoring" of IT to India and now China has and will affect IT jobs in the US, but the numbers Im seeing are maybe 5% of US jobs directly affected by this...its not as bad as you think 4. According to article on zdnet.com and here, its turning out with each passing day INDIAN PROGRAMMERS ARE CREATING SLOPPY WORK AND MANAGED IT PROJECTS DONT HAVE ROI's inline with cost savings as expecetd (actually cost more!), and a number of companies are turning back to the US and other sources for outsourced IT, as the offshore model in India appears to not work as most companies thought. This return is currently unfolding when you see all the current US outsourcing startups inside the US now that recruit US IT people, albiet with smaller salaries. If you dont believe me, check out some recent Gartner studies that show Indian outsourced projects have cost more, have lower quality, and there is a HUGE backlash thats unfolding against phone support from India. Check out DELL's current stance on this as well. 5. US programmers INNOVATE, and that will never change...thats something OUR COUNTRY nurtures, and its NOT tied completely to education systems. It will take time for US companies to see this and its beginning to unfold, such that more companies are hiring techies in-house 6. Good software "talent", no matter in the US or India or China, is a limited commodity, and thats what Bill Gates recently mentioned...and what this article is really saying. There is a decreasing number of "techies" with both the talent, AND the skills. Thats further inflamed by loss of educated, retrained techies now. Since the world is from here forward a tech world, you will see salaries go up radically, I believe for the "talent". You need to prove you have that edge if you are a US IT person and want the big bucks which will be coming back.... 7. I Agree....we will see a HUGE number of jobs and upper level skill sets (c#.NET, DBM's, etc.) that will be in huge demand but not available in the US. Jobs ARE coming back. Go to dice.com and do a search for .NET jobs. There are a HUGE number already that are not being filled. In a few years that will increase. Bill Gates is right.
8. FACT: Even if you are in IT and cant find work now, you need to get retrained in the newest technology, or YOU WILL BE COMPETING SALAREY-WISE against foreigners who also can do your job. BUT, because offshoring is currently NOT working so well, expect soon, many high paying jobs in nearly ALL LEVELS OF IT. Thats my prediction
9. Now for the unknown: Its true software programmers such as myself DONT seem to be showing job increases currently in big numbers but service/business hybrid jobs are growing like crazy!...this because there are allot of software jobs being replaced by offshoring and software that currenlty solves busienss process problems. That will continue UNTIL BUSINESS REALIZES THAT just because you program has NOTHING to do with quality OR innovation. Those are two things that make compoanies cometitive, so I feel will require time for US companies to teach their CIO's to nurture again the original IT model of highly skilled US programmers paid well to innovate the core software that creates value for the company....that WILL return. I predict very soon a huge diversification of the software programming field as well that should be inclusive of more and more people, all obver the globe. Software now is both the support and the income-producing edge to all companies. No company can afford to undervalue that by hiring grunts. Doesnnt matter how talented your project managers. You cant replace innovative US programming!