I've working for computer security companies, and my experience is people don't buy security unless they *have* to.
Vista will sell, sure, but only because it'll come with every new PC. But I can't believe Joe User running XP will spend the money to upgrade to a new version of windows for "security" purposes. Not a chance.
Now, Joe Pointy-Haired-Boss may want to upgrade -- but his network admin will probably insist on sticking with the Win2k/ActiveDirectory system that is "good enough" right now.
Bottom line, Vista will be Microsoft's biggest flop since BOB.
does this mean that Disney's movies will improve, or that Pixar's will become worse?
Disney owned all the sequel rights to Pixar movies, so a few months back Disney was saying they were going to do Toy Story 3 without Pixar. If that'd happened it would've produced a better Disney movie, but a worse Pixar movie -- if you follow me.
Despite popular fanboy and media opinion, John Lasseter is the mind behind the success of Pixar's movies. Steve Jobs is the owner, distribution negotiator, but Lasseter is the talent.
Mono is becoming increasing important due to Windows Vista
As a developer, I have great concern over how Vista will muddle the Windows landscape. Microsoft is creating a situation where developers have to build and test for way too many Windows platforms.
That is, many developers and network administrators use Windows 2000 exclusively and most other pros and home users use XP -- and my father in law still uses Windows 98. NONE of these people have any intention of upgrading to Vista. So Vista will likely only be installed on new PCs
It's getting to the point where there's just too many versions of Windows out there to support:
Win 98 SE Win 2k Workstation and Server(s) Win XP Home and Pro Win Vista??
And the pointy-haired-bosses will continue to shout that *all* versions of Windows must be supported. That means more development, more testing, more installers, more deep sighs.
The "write once run anywhere" of Java is becoming more attractive all the time.
What is the best way for new IS managers to convince their superiors of the need for widespread change?
In a nutshell, just do it.
Take the initiative and start implementing policies and enforcing them. My guess is your boss will be very impressed that you're showing such leadership. Team Captains don't become Team Captains by waiting to be asked.
Keep in mind, that you run the risk of pissing a lot of people off. Be flexible (you probably don't have *all* the answers) but stay determined. Perseverance pays.
Just do it. They'll tell you when you've gone too far.
Steve Jobs has an ego the size of a mountain, and will break his back avoiding it to happen
Yeah, but I think deep inside one of the things that motivates Jobs is that he wants to beat Bill Gates. I believe Jobs wants to show Gates that taste and creativity will beat the monopoly.
IMO, Jobs is the only person in the world that can take on MS on the OS front and win.
Think slashdotters and linux users hate MS? Dell, HP, Sony (and Google and Sun and Oracle and Apple) hate them more.
Man, I'd love to see OS X go after Windows in a BIG WAY -- Apple'd have the whole industry on their side.
For every 1 million computers shipped each year 5% are Apple.
That's 50,000 Apple computers that Apple has to manufacture and ship. Let's say Apple profits $500 on each unit, that's $25 million.
Microsoft, meanwhile is making about $200 per each of the other 95%. That's 950,000 x $200 = $190 million just for software licenses -- no hardware manufacturing, no shipping.
If Apple licenses OS X to Dell, HP, and Sony to ship with clones, they have a realistic shot at 20% of the computer market in the short term.
That's 200,000 units times the $200 MS currently makes = $40 million.
So, Apple makes $40 licensing OS X instead of $25 million selling Macs per every 1 million units. That's a 160% increase in profits, and that's assuming clones completely canibalize Macs which is unlikely -- there's no reason why they couldn't still sell Macs anyway.
CONCLUSION: Apple WILL license OS X to Dell/HP/Sony. It's inevitable.
As a business model, this definition of open source ultimately will be bad for programmers and the software industry. It lowers pay in the industry and demand for programmers, which is bad enough in itself but will also disincentivize young people from choosing programming/CS as a career.
I used to feel the same way, but I now disagree.
I used to think it was a bad thing that the open source Tomcat and JBoss programmers were putting the JRun programer out of work; but I now realize that it's actually progress.
Similarly there were probably a lot of carpenters put out of work when they invented power-tools. Invent a machine that can do the work of 10 men, and that's progress right? And if you give that machine away, doesn't it make each of those 10 men capable of being 10 times more productive?
So the JBoss programmer may be putting the JRun programmer out of work -- but having JBoss for free allows other programmers very employable and capable of building great things at a more productive rate.
The sharing of knowledge through open source doesn't hurt us, it makes us capable of building better things faster.
And I'm not some tree-hugging hippie with flowers in my hair, I'm a punk-rock right-wing capitalist. Look what Apple has done levering the open source world. They've built, IMO, the best computing platform on the planet. The programming world is creating an amazing arsenal of free tools, take them and do BETTER things with them!
I use lots of open source software, Apache Tomcat, JBoss, a bunch of Eclipse plug-ins. In fact, before I tackle most tasks I check to see if there's a free open-source project that has already solved the hard problems.
I'm really happy that these projects exists because being able to stand on their shoulders make me a much more productive and a better programmer.
But I have often wondered -- who are these people that pay (in money or time) to develop all this stuff? I'm really glad they do, but I hope all the "funding" doesn't all dry up someday. I'd have to do all that work myself!!
The ID proponents are not only going against science, they're also going against the Church that represented christianity for more than 15 centuries - that ought to say something.
Yeah, the same 1500 year old church that burned people at the stake for claiming the earth revolved around the sun, and sentenced people to death for being in posession of a bible in a language they could actually read!
The same church that has spent the last century boinking defenseless little boys in orphinages across north america, and still has not done anything to punish the offenders.
Yeah -- that's right -- don't argue with that infallable bunch!
I went to Future Shop today and they had the recently discontinue 20" LCD iMac for $1699 CAD (was $2199 CAD). Almost bought it, but it was the display model and I'd want my Apple fresh.
I'm tired of Windows -- after 15 years of PCs, they no longer excite me. My next machine will definately be a Mac -- either a Mac Mini or iMac -- just going to wait and see how the Intel thing affects their new products in 2006.
Slashdot Mirror
~1983 : Commodore Vic-20, 3.5k ram, cassette drive
~1985 : Commodore 64, 64k ram, 360k 5.25" floppy drive
~1990 : clone 386SX-16Mhz, 2 meg ram, 40meg HD, MS-DOS
~1992 : clone 386DX-40Mhz, 4 meg ram, 40meg HD, GeoWorks PC/GEOS
~1995 : clone 486DX2-100Mhx, 8 meg ram, 120meg HD, Windows 95
~1997 : clone Pentium 100MHz, 16 meg ram, 2gig HD, Windows 95
~2000 : Dell P3-733Mhz, 128 meg ram, 20gig HD, Windows ME
~2004 : Sony VAIO P4-2.8GHz, 1 gig ram, 160gig HD, Window XP
and sometime this summer I plan on buying a Mac.
boxlight
I've used Windows since Windows 95 and upgraded everytime, and never been very satisfied with it.
95 > 98 > ME > 2k > XP
I *swear* I'm not going to Vista. I *swear* it! I'll keep using XP until it's time to buy a new PC, then I'll buy a Mac.
Stephen
If I'm to dump Java and use Ruby then someone's going to have to show me the money.
boxlight
Vista will sell, sure, but only because it'll come with every new PC. But I can't believe Joe User running XP will spend the money to upgrade to a new version of windows for "security" purposes. Not a chance.
Now, Joe Pointy-Haired-Boss may want to upgrade -- but his network admin will probably insist on sticking with the Win2k/ActiveDirectory system that is "good enough" right now.
Bottom line, Vista will be Microsoft's biggest flop since BOB.
boxlight
I wonder if this means we'll see that remake of (Disney's) TRON that John Lasseter wanted to make?
Cool!
boxlight
Disney owned all the sequel rights to Pixar movies, so a few months back Disney was saying they were going to do Toy Story 3 without Pixar. If that'd happened it would've produced a better Disney movie, but a worse Pixar movie -- if you follow me.
Despite popular fanboy and media opinion, John Lasseter is the mind behind the success of Pixar's movies. Steve Jobs is the owner, distribution negotiator, but Lasseter is the talent.
BTW, there's a great chapter in THE SECOND COMING OF STEVE JOBS about the history of Pixar. Check it out.
boxlight
Mono is becoming increasing important due to Windows Vista
As a developer, I have great concern over how Vista will muddle the Windows landscape. Microsoft is creating a situation where developers have to build and test for way too many Windows platforms.
That is, many developers and network administrators use Windows 2000 exclusively and most other pros and home users use XP -- and my father in law still uses Windows 98. NONE of these people have any intention of upgrading to Vista. So Vista will likely only be installed on new PCs
It's getting to the point where there's just too many versions of Windows out there to support:
Win 98 SE
Win 2k Workstation and Server(s)
Win XP Home and Pro
Win Vista??
And the pointy-haired-bosses will continue to shout that *all* versions of Windows must be supported. That means more development, more testing, more installers, more deep sighs.
The "write once run anywhere" of Java is becoming more attractive all the time.
boxlight
In a nutshell, just do it.
Take the initiative and start implementing policies and enforcing them. My guess is your boss will be very impressed that you're showing such leadership. Team Captains don't become Team Captains by waiting to be asked.
Keep in mind, that you run the risk of pissing a lot of people off. Be flexible (you probably don't have *all* the answers) but stay determined. Perseverance pays.
Just do it. They'll tell you when you've gone too far.
Boxlight
Yeah, but I think deep inside one of the things that motivates Jobs is that he wants to beat Bill Gates. I believe Jobs wants to show Gates that taste and creativity will beat the monopoly.
IMO, Jobs is the only person in the world that can take on MS on the OS front and win.
Think slashdotters and linux users hate MS? Dell, HP, Sony (and Google and Sun and Oracle and Apple) hate them more. Man, I'd love to see OS X go after Windows in a BIG WAY -- Apple'd have the whole industry on their side.
boxlight
That's 50,000 Apple computers that Apple has to manufacture and ship. Let's say Apple profits $500 on each unit, that's $25 million.
Microsoft, meanwhile is making about $200 per each of the other 95%. That's 950,000 x $200 = $190 million just for software licenses -- no hardware manufacturing, no shipping.
If Apple licenses OS X to Dell, HP, and Sony to ship with clones, they have a realistic shot at 20% of the computer market in the short term.
That's 200,000 units times the $200 MS currently makes = $40 million.
So, Apple makes $40 licensing OS X instead of $25 million selling Macs per every 1 million units. That's a 160% increase in profits, and that's assuming clones completely canibalize Macs which is unlikely -- there's no reason why they couldn't still sell Macs anyway.
CONCLUSION: Apple WILL license OS X to Dell/HP/Sony. It's inevitable.
boxlight
In other news ... Microsoft files patent for sucking-resistent code.
Yeah, and all right-wing capitalist wear three-piece suits, carry patent leather breif cases, drink expensive French wine and drive BMWs.
This one don't. In my best Tommy Chong voice, "Get our of your world of *labels* man." ;-)
boxlight
I used to feel the same way, but I now disagree.
I used to think it was a bad thing that the open source Tomcat and JBoss programmers were putting the JRun programer out of work; but I now realize that it's actually progress.
Similarly there were probably a lot of carpenters put out of work when they invented power-tools. Invent a machine that can do the work of 10 men, and that's progress right? And if you give that machine away, doesn't it make each of those 10 men capable of being 10 times more productive?
So the JBoss programmer may be putting the JRun programmer out of work -- but having JBoss for free allows other programmers very employable and capable of building great things at a more productive rate. The sharing of knowledge through open source doesn't hurt us, it makes us capable of building better things faster.
And I'm not some tree-hugging hippie with flowers in my hair, I'm a punk-rock right-wing capitalist. Look what Apple has done levering the open source world. They've built, IMO, the best computing platform on the planet. The programming world is creating an amazing arsenal of free tools, take them and do BETTER things with them!
boxlight
I'm really happy that these projects exists because being able to stand on their shoulders make me a much more productive and a better programmer.
But I have often wondered -- who are these people that pay (in money or time) to develop all this stuff? I'm really glad they do, but I hope all the "funding" doesn't all dry up someday. I'd have to do all that work myself!!
boxlight
Yeah, the same 1500 year old church that burned people at the stake for claiming the earth revolved around the sun, and sentenced people to death for being in posession of a bible in a language they could actually read!
The same church that has spent the last century boinking defenseless little boys in orphinages across north america, and still has not done anything to punish the offenders.
Yeah -- that's right -- don't argue with that infallable bunch!
boxlight
PS. Try: www.bibleinfo.com
Which, if true, must have been very depressing to Moses, since his death is recorded in the second of the the five books.
I guess it's easy to throw around untrue statements and get modded up.
The death of Moses is in Deuteronomy 32:48-52; 34:1-12. This is the end of the FIFTH book of the Bible.
boxlight
I'm tired of Windows -- after 15 years of PCs, they no longer excite me. My next machine will definately be a Mac -- either a Mac Mini or iMac -- just going to wait and see how the Intel thing affects their new products in 2006.
Boxlight
How do new releases of FreeBSD affect OS X?
Boxlight