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Besides accumulated cyclone energy worldwide trending down for the last 25 years, there is no discernible climate-change signal in the US economic damage from hurricanes. As far as damage/bigger storms go, it seems what is predicted to happen from climate change isn't happening - the facts don't back it up.

Oh, come one. Don't put your intelligence under your bed.

http://policlimate.com/tropica...

What is wrong with intelligent people like you? Ignoring facts? For what? What is your benefit making bollocks post on /. ? None, I'm sure. So why do you do it?

Thank you for highlighting the issue.

without a LANDFALL.

The number of atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is increasing very obviously just by eyeballing the charts at this point.

The crap shoot is whether we have a weak or strong high over the northern atlantic. If it's strong, they land- if it's weak they don't.

Likewise, it depends on whether El Nino is going- because it weakens hurricanes.

Trust me , we had plenty of AGW foes posting about every year of the lack of landfalls.

Tropical storm + hurricane graph (not just landfalls) here.
http://policlimate.com/tropica...
The cycle is obvious- but so is the trend. More tropical storms. More severe hurricanes.

Been reading The Guardian again, have we? By all means read it. They do some excellent reporting on a lot of things. But their reporting on climate issues is truly atrocious.

Increase in hurricanes? Not happening. Really. Here's a chart http://policlimate.com/tropica... The vertical axis is ACE -- Accumulated Cyclone Energy which is what the cool kids use nowadays. It gives greater weight to stronger/longer lasting storms. But the number of storms isn't increasing either. Why isn't the number increasing? No one knows. Maybe more wind shear offsets more warm water.

Severe drought? No real increase. BTW, the worst drought condition is probably the Sahara. It didn't rain a lot there before, but it quit raining there almost completely about 4000 years ago. No one knows why.

Extreme snowfall? Probably not, but the older records are not very good. Possibly the worst snowfall event on the US East Coast was the blizzard of 1888 but it's hard to compare it with modern events because reporting is different now.

BTW, there isn't any recent event that compares to things like the Summer of 1814 (The "year without a Summer"), the dustbowl drought. The severe droughts in the American West in the 1300s, the 1938 New England Hurricane, etc, etc, etc.

Hum. I did a quick google for "accumulated cyclone energy" http://policlimate.com/tropica...

I don't see any particular upward trend there. I'd guess that 2014 isn't going to be that dramatic.

The ACE is obviously governed by a cycle almost as long as the graph. Of course there is no true trend visible. Yet. Comparing the minima around 1975 and 2011 however ...

Hum. I did a quick google for "accumulated cyclone energy"
http://policlimate.com/tropica...

I don't see any particular upward trend there.
I'd guess that 2014 isn't going to be that dramatic.

And from an anecdotal point of view having been in emergency management for 15 years, I can say from personal experience that storms are getting more frequent and more powerful.

Interesting, must just be your neck of the woods, since hurricane/cyclone frequency and energy is decreasing on a global scale. Sure, we're spotting more hurricanes/cyclones, but fewer are making landfall and are weaker as well. Perhaps our ability to spot hurricanes out at sea, and classify them correctly is what is getting better, not the actual number occurring.

Likewise with tornadoes, which have remained more-or-less constant. Damage caused by F1 to F5 tornadoes is actually dropping; it's the little guys, the F0s, that are increasing damage. Is that because there are more tornadoes? No, there are not more tornadoes. I suggest it is because there is more lightweight construction in/near tornado zones and so damage is happening where in the past it would not - nothing to damage.

The global cyclone energy index is on a downward trend since several decades. I'm not sure why you believe otherwise - there's no support for such a viewpoint in the actual data.

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png

There's not a single "extreme weather" index that's currently on the rise (besides media headlines). There are plenty of models claiming that there will be, in the future, but so far it's not visible in the observations.

(But hey, why let the scientific method stand in the way for activist arguments?)

Here's a graph on total cyclone energy over a climatically insignificant period of time. The global warming signal should be easily spotted:

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png

FTFY

Here's a graph on total cyclone energy over time. The global warming signal should be easily spotted:

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png

If you take just a second to look here, here, and here you will see that hurricanes, for example, have not become significantly more frequent nor intense.

The same applies to other freak weather events. They're just more mediatized now, and affect more people in an increasingly overcrowded world.

If you take just a second to look here, here, and here you will see that hurricanes, for example, have not become significantly more frequent nor intense.

The same applies to other freak weather events. They're just more mediatized now, and affect more people in an increasingly overcrowded world.

If you take just a second to look here, here, and here you will see that hurricanes, for example, have not become significantly more frequent nor intense.

The same applies to other freak weather events. They're just more mediatized now, and affect more people in an increasingly overcrowded world.

Where's the data on a more energetic atmosphere?

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png

Reality?

There's no data pointing to today's weather being any different than the weather we've always had. If you believe differently, please point to such a data set.

Here's some to get your started:

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/cei/step6.ytd.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_figures/precipitation-figure2.gif
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/regplots/real/real_us_2.gif

Reality?

There's no data pointing to today's weather being any different than the weather we've always had. If you believe differently, please point to such a data set.

Here's some to get your started:

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/cei/step6.ytd.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_figures/precipitation-figure2.gif
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/regplots/real/real_us_2.gif

Reality?

There's no data pointing to today's weather being any different than the weather we've always had. If you believe differently, please point to such a data set.

Here's some to get your started:

http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/cei/step6.ytd.gif
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_figures/precipitation-figure2.gif
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/regplots/real/real_us_2.gif

Pardon me. That wasn't the link I intended to post. This is.

Why isn't it a good example?

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

Don't forget to look at the pretty graphis. That's actual data, not models.

... but it hasn't happened. A bunch of models predict it will happen, but there's no data yet to show that the models are correct.

You do know how the scientific method works, I hope?

http://policlimate.com/tropical/