Slashdot Mirror

databuff writes "Predictions are critical to modern life. Police predict where and when crimes are most likely to take place, banks predict which loan applicants are most likely to default, and hotels forecast seasonal demand to set room rates. A new project called Kaggle facilitates better predictions by providing a platform for forecasting competitions. The platform allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world's best statisticians. It will offer a robust rating system, so it's easy to identify those with a proven track record. Organizations can choose either to follow the experts, or to follow the consensus of the crowd — which, according to New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki, is likely to be more accurate than the vast majority of individual predictions. The power of a pool of predictions was demonstrated by the Netflix Prize, a $1m data-prediction competition, which was won by a team of teams that combined 700 models. Kaggle's first competition is underway, and it is accessing the 'wisdom of crowds' to predict the winner of this May's Eurovision Song Contest." Understandably, participation requires registration.

An anonymous reader submits "Not sure if this is for real or not, but for what it's worth, it seems like a Democratic PAC is letting people vote on where to spend US$10k of its money. Think Oregon is a more important swing state? Pennsylvania? Let' em know at ORvPA.org. What kind of issues does this raise? Think Republicans will try and game the vote? Does it really matter in the grand scheme of things? Is this a good example of trying to harness the wisdom of crowds?"

securitas writes "The New York Times Magazine cover story this week is a (typically) long feature about the rise of comic books and graphic novels into mainstream culture, with writer Charles McGrath (former editor of the Book Review) stating: 'Comic books are what novels used to be -- an accessible, vernacular form with mass appeal ... perfectly suited to our dumbed-down culture and collective attention deficit.' McGrath cites the mid-1980s birth of a movement that began and fizzled with Maus (Art Spiegelman), Love & Rockets (Hernandez Bros.) Watchmen (Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons) and Batman: The Dark Knight Returns (Frank Miller). The current renaissance in graphic novels include non-fiction Palestine (Sacco), non-fiction Persepolis (Satrapi) which has sold 450,000 copies, Ghost World (Clowes), American Splendor (Pekar), Road to Perdition (Collins) and Chris Ware's Jimmy Corrigan: The Smartest Kid on Earth, which won the 2001 Guardian Prize for best first book and has sold 100,000 in hardcover. McGrath interviews Marjane Satrapi, Julie Doucet, Joe Sacco, Art Spiegelman, and Alan Moore, among others. The article also has a multimedia interactive feature with many of the graphic novelists (registration required) in the magazine article."

securitas writes "The New York Times Magazine cover story this week is a (typically) long feature about the rise of comic books and graphic novels into mainstream culture, with writer Charles McGrath (former editor of the Book Review) stating: 'Comic books are what novels used to be -- an accessible, vernacular form with mass appeal ... perfectly suited to our dumbed-down culture and collective attention deficit.' McGrath cites the mid-1980s birth of a movement that began and fizzled with Maus (Art Spiegelman), Love & Rockets (Hernandez Bros.) Watchmen (Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons) and Batman: The Dark Knight Returns (Frank Miller). The current renaissance in graphic novels include non-fiction Palestine (Sacco), non-fiction Persepolis (Satrapi) which has sold 450,000 copies, Ghost World (Clowes), American Splendor (Pekar), Road to Perdition (Collins) and Chris Ware's Jimmy Corrigan: The Smartest Kid on Earth, which won the 2001 Guardian Prize for best first book and has sold 100,000 in hardcover. McGrath interviews Marjane Satrapi, Julie Doucet, Joe Sacco, Art Spiegelman, and Alan Moore, among others. The article also has a multimedia interactive feature with many of the graphic novelists (registration required) in the magazine article."

This is a man who obviously knows a lot about the Internet. I am not making this up. He wrote a book about it. He has his own blog, his own Web site, and his own online alt.fan newsgroup with its own FAQ. Not only that, he is in a band and writes a syndicated humor column that often covers matters of interest to Slashdot readers. What are you going to ask him? Up to you, as long as you hold it down to one question per post. We'll send Dave 10 of the highest-moderated questions and post his answers as soon as we get them back, after which we're sure many alert readers will have much to add even if they haven't heard about Bennett Haselton's excellent automated Dave Barry column generator.

jonerik writes: "Former NASA engineer Homer Hickam (perhaps best known for his 1998 memoir "Rocket Boys," which was turned into the 1999 motion picture "October Sky") has this article in Technology Review in which he advocates that the U.S. revive its nuclear rocket program of the '50s and '60s, arguing that nuclear-powered rockets are the only realistic way of opening up the rest of the solar system - particularly Mars - to human exploration."

coonsta queries: "Being able to embed a Web browser is critical to the success of a platform (and the browser). High Stakes, No Prisoners argues this quite eloquently. Windows has an embeddable IE (and Mozilla to boot); Linux has Mozilla; wxWindows has wxHTML; etc. But what does Java have? I can forsake cross-platform support and embed IE, but that won't interact well with Swing; I can embed Mozilla, if Webclient is ever released in a usable form (and what about OS X?); I can use a JTextPane, and forget about nice-looking pages or script; I can Runtime.exec the browser and forget about being able to control it or interact with it; I can use CalPane and forget about JavaScript; or I can buy a component from Company X-dot-com, and subsequently price the software out of the market. Do any developers know if I can have my cake and eat it to? That is, does anybody know of a cheap, cross-platform Web browser component for Java with a reasonably modern feature set?"

James Scott reviewed Mary Doria Russell's book The Sparrow. Though the plot features interstellar travel and first contact with an alien race, it is not strictly a science fiction novel - it's been summarized as "A comic, tragic, category-defying exploration of the human condition." Click below to learn more. The Sparrow author Mary Doria Russell pages 405 publisher Ballantine Books, October 1997 rating 9/10 reviewer James Scott ISBN 0-449-91255-8 summary A comic, tragic, category-defying exploration of the human condition

The Sparrow, Mary Doria Russell's first novel, is not easily labeled. Though the plot features interstellar travel and first contact with an alien race, it is not strictly a science fiction novel. Many of the characters are members of a religious order (the Society of Jesus), but the book never assumes a pious or moralistic tone. The story ultimately reveals immense suffering, but it also sparkles with wit and word play. Fortunately, what Ellington said of music (there's only two kinds: good and bad) is also true of books. Whatever category of novel The Sparrow may fit into, it is certainly a good book.

The first part of the novel introduces two story lines, and the narrative shifts between these stories until the very end of the novel. The first story is set in early 21st century Puerto Rico. Jimmy Quinn, a young radio astronomer at the Arecibo array, detects signals originating from a planet orbiting Alpha Centauri. Upon analyzing these transmissions, Quinn hears music of an obviously non-human variety. He first shares this discovery with his friends, including a Jesuit priest named Emilio Sandoz. Sandoz immediately proposes mounting an expedition to Alpha Centauri. He quickly convinces his Jesuit superiors to sponsor the adventure, populating the crew with both priests and lay people. They find their way to Alpha Centauri aboard a dugout asteroid powered by a mass driver, where they discover the planet Rakhat, populated by two sentient species.

The second thread, a courtroom drama of sorts, features the Jesuit hearing into the events of the expedition to Rakhat. In late 2059, Sandoz has returned to Earth alone, physically and emotionally shattered. He is preceded by bizarre allegations of murder and prostitution, transmitted by a UN-sponsored followup expedition to Rakhat. The Jesuit order is desperate to dispel this mounting scandal and nurses Sandoz back to health so that he may tell his story. With calculated and sometimes sadistic effort, the Father General of the Society of Jesus flattens Sandoz' defenses and forces him to describe the horrible truth of his experience on Rakhat.

As a science fiction novel, The Sparrow breaks very little new ground. The reader will find no startling new technological or social ideas here, though Russell does a fine job of constructing two distinct alien races. The real value of this book is its exploration of spiritual matters. The the first few months on Rakhat go so well that even the agnostic and atheistic members of the crew begin to think that God might be watching over them. Nonetheless the mission ends in disaster, with most of the crew dead. Sandoz, who despite his priestly vows never developed a personal relationship with God, survives to ponder the implications. What kind of God would abuse human faith in such a callous manner?

In contrast with the weighty nature of its central issues, this book is quite an enjoyable read. This is due in part to the author's liberal application of humor. Russell has created a handful of genuinely funny characters who deliver one-liners and make smooth pop-culture references with frequent grace. She also takes pains to create real emotion in the religious figures, including imperfect faith and sexual attraction. This adds up to an engaging collection of people who draw the reader into the story. When it comes time to pay the piper, we know enough about them to truly appreciate the turmoil they endure.

The Sparrow is definitely worth a few hours of your time. It doesn't map any new sci-fi territory, but it will provoke you to examine your spiritual world-view. Fortunately Russell offers no pat, hollow answers in this book. Instead she offers a painful and wonderful look at what it means to exist. She gets it right: it's hard to be human no matter what planet you're on.

Purchase this at fatbrain.

Greg Bear is rightly recognized as a master of hard science ficiton. James Scott has written a review of Bear's novel Darwin's Radio, an incredible story concerning the human race's next leap ahead. Click below to find out more - or discuss the book, if you've read it. Darwin's Radio author Greg Bear pages 430 publisher Del Rey rating 8/10 reviewer James Scott ISBN 0-345-42333-X summary Bear spins a plausible yet incredible tale of mankind's next giant leap.

Greg Bear is indisputably one of the preeminent "hard" science fiction writers working today. His past writings have taken ideas from many areas of contemporary scientific research and spun them into fantastic universes. Blood Music and Queen of Angels, aside from being absolutely engrossing tales, helped nanotechnology enter the mainstream vocabulary. In addition to his excellent treatment of science, the development of his characters seldom suffers at the hands of his concepts, and it is always the characters that make the story rewarding. His latest effort is no exception. Darwin's Radio sets complex and believable characters in a story that puts forth a convincing theory of punctuated equilibrium in evolution.

Darwin's Radio is set just after the (not-even-slightly apocalyptic) turn of the millenium in a universe that is recognizably our own. The story revolves around Kaye Lang, a brilliant molecular biologist who specializes in the study of retroviruses. Specifically, she studies endogenous retroviruses - RNA-based viruses that integrate their genetic material into the host's DNA, becoming part of the host's genome. As the book opens, Lang is on a trip to the former Soviet republic of Georgia, trying to win the cooperation of local scientists in a business venture. On a side trip to investigate a recently discovered mass grave filled with the bodies of pregnant women, she meets Christopher Dicken, a virus hunter for the Centers for Disease Control. Dicken is on the trail of a peculiar illness (eventually known as "Herod's Flu") that seems only to strike young pregnant women and cause miscarriages. Soon after her return to the United States, Kaye finds a media spotlight as other researchers discover that Herod's Flu is actually a Scattered Human Endogenous retroVirus Activation - SHEVA - which she predicted. SHEVA soon reaches epidemic levels around the world, causing virtually every pregnant woman to miscarry.

Meanwhile, two fortune-seeking mountaineers lead anthropologist Mitch Rafelson to a startling discovery in the Austrian Alps - a mummified Neanderthal man and woman with a human baby. Mitch sees the Neandertal family as direct evidence of the speciation of Homo sapiens and soon intuits a connection among his discovery, the Georgian mass grave and SHEVA. Already discredited by a previous fiasco with Native American remains, and held in suspicion for the company he kept in the Alps, Mitch is unable to influence the scientific inquiry into his discovery. However, he does eventually connect with Christopher and Kaye, who are working to explain and control SHEVA amid increasingly panicked reactions from the general population. Lang initially assists the federal government's efforts, but never really supports the view that SHEVA is a disease. Like Mitch, she's convinced that the virus is an agent of change for humanity.

I don't think I'm spoiling the book by stating that the story concerns human evolution. If the title doesn't give it away, a cursory glance at the dust jacket reveals comments like Anne McCaffery's: "WOW!...a human upgrade..." In the first 150 pages or so, through Mitch and Kaye's eyes, Bear gives the reader enough evidence to draw the conclusion that SHEVA is responsible for the human baby born to the Neanderthals and will soon create the next evolution of humans. However, he doesn't grace Christopher Dicken and his fellows in the CDC with the same insight. The government continues to treat SHEVA as a pathogen that threatens humanity's existence (which is not an altogether incorrect viewpoint). The CDC can't prevent the miscarriages, and Bear provides a vivid depiction of the violence that results from the government's inability to accept the truth and communicate it to the people.

This novel provides an excellent story as well as some new concepts to ponder. The evolutionary ideas Bear puts forth, aside from sounding extremely plausible (to this non-microbiologist), provoke some very entertaining thoughts. Humans have spent the last hundred years or so modifying nature to suit ourselves. We're used to dealing with problems that we inflict on ourselves. How do we react when nature modifies us? This conflict forms a vibrant backdrop for the human story - the political ambitions that blind Christopher to the true nature of SHEVA, Kaye's brilliance in research and naivete in practically ever other pursuit, Mitch's frustration as his past prevents him from persuading other scientists to his point of view. Bear renders the romance (yes, there's romance) between two major characters compellingly without being lurid, with a bit of unrequited love as garnish. The plot motors along, but gives the reader some time to consider the implications of evolving humans as the government's efforts to "cure" SHEVA patients goes nowhere. Even then, the author entertains us with nonviolent protests, outright riots, and pagan fertility rites. Bear's prose is crisp, if not quite up to the stratospherically high standards he set in Queen of Angels. The ending, while not totally unsatisfying, leaves several questions unanswered and is wide open for a sequel. This is not necessarily a Bad Thing, since Darwin's Radio presents a world that will certainly bear further exploration.

Pick this book up at Amazon