Domain: stockmaster.com
Stories and comments across the archive that link to stockmaster.com.
Comments · 29
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Re:Of course etoys is going under
> It's worth pointing out that, while sometimes the company outlives its cash, the stockholders almost never do.
Whelp, Stockmaster has the chart for MSFT. Could you run up the anticipated date for us?
It's not quite so nearly monotonic as the dot coms you list, but it's still not the kind of thing that cheers stockholders.
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And how's LNUX doing?
VA Linux, Slashdot's parent, isn't doing well either. The stock has dropped from 320 to 9. And they're still not making money.
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SEGA is in deep trouble.
I'm not suprised. SEGA is losing money and their stock is crashing. But they have some well-liked products. That makes them a good candidate for an acquisition.
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SEGA is in big trouble as a company.I think they're just pissed that only like 9 people bought dreamcasts
SEGA stock is down 75% from its peak early this year. They're losing money. And they don't have an entry in the next generation race: Sony has the PS2, Nintendo has the GameCube, and Microsoft has the X-Box. Sega? Well, Sega has a new GameBoy-like unit. Maybe they're moving to the handheld market.
So SEGA is sinking. One article on SEGA wrote "This company is dead", but it's too soon to tell.
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It's about time.I've been expecting this crash for a long time. I've activated my financial bad-news site, Downside.com, which I've had on standby waiting for this. There's an army of analysts cranking out good news, much of it paid hype, but bad news is hard to find. (Only about 1% of analyst recommendations are "sell".) Watch for future commentary.
This is not the end of the world, but it's the end of those "lose money on every sale and make it up on volume" Internet companies. As the Red Herring pointed out, there are around 200 Internet companies that have to outperform Microsoft to justify their stock values. No way could that happen.
As for LNUX, its decline is only vaguely related to the overall market. Look at the chart.. It's been in a screaming dive since the IPO, down over 90% now. Regardless of market conditions or VA Linux press releases, the dive remains steady. It's a very pretty chart. I pointed this out a month ago, when LNUX dropped through 100. Now it's at 29. Enough said.
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It's about time.I've been expecting this crash for a long time. I've activated my financial bad-news site, Downside.com, which I've had on standby waiting for this. There's an army of analysts cranking out good news, much of it paid hype, but bad news is hard to find. (Only about 1% of analyst recommendations are "sell".) Watch for future commentary.
This is not the end of the world, but it's the end of those "lose money on every sale and make it up on volume" Internet companies. As the Red Herring pointed out, there are around 200 Internet companies that have to outperform Microsoft to justify their stock values. No way could that happen.
As for LNUX, its decline is only vaguely related to the overall market. Look at the chart.. It's been in a screaming dive since the IPO, down over 90% now. Regardless of market conditions or VA Linux press releases, the dive remains steady. It's a very pretty chart. I pointed this out a month ago, when LNUX dropped through 100. Now it's at 29. Enough said.
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OOG is right......but maybe not fast enough. It looks like CALD peaked around midday on its first day of trading. High 33, close 29 7/16. Could be another LNUX; all the gains on the first day.
As usual, LNUX is down; closed at 80 today. Check the moving average on LNUX to see the trend. RHAT is down, too. So the CALD offering didn't do anything to pump up the other Linux stocks; it was a lousy day for both of them.
And the Caldera logo does look like Mickey Mouse(tm) overshadowing the world.
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OOG is right......but maybe not fast enough. It looks like CALD peaked around midday on its first day of trading. High 33, close 29 7/16. Could be another LNUX; all the gains on the first day.
As usual, LNUX is down; closed at 80 today. Check the moving average on LNUX to see the trend. RHAT is down, too. So the CALD offering didn't do anything to pump up the other Linux stocks; it was a lousy day for both of them.
And the Caldera logo does look like Mickey Mouse(tm) overshadowing the world.
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OOG is right......but maybe not fast enough. It looks like CALD peaked around midday on its first day of trading. High 33, close 29 7/16. Could be another LNUX; all the gains on the first day.
As usual, LNUX is down; closed at 80 today. Check the moving average on LNUX to see the trend. RHAT is down, too. So the CALD offering didn't do anything to pump up the other Linux stocks; it was a lousy day for both of them.
And the Caldera logo does look like Mickey Mouse(tm) overshadowing the world.
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OOG is right......but maybe not fast enough. It looks like CALD peaked around midday on its first day of trading. High 33, close 29 7/16. Could be another LNUX; all the gains on the first day.
As usual, LNUX is down; closed at 80 today. Check the moving average on LNUX to see the trend. RHAT is down, too. So the CALD offering didn't do anything to pump up the other Linux stocks; it was a lousy day for both of them.
And the Caldera logo does look like Mickey Mouse(tm) overshadowing the world.
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RHAT and LNUX cash flowWell, let's look at the cash flow situations for the Linux companies. A look at the latest SEC 10-Q filings, the quarterly reports, gives us a snapshot of the cash situation of each.
VA Linux has about $130 million in cash less liabilities, and they're losing money at an annual rate of about $46 million. (This is computed as 4x the most recent quarterly figure.) So they're in good shape in the cash department, and have two or three years to become profitable. Yes, the stock is tanking, but they have the money in the bank. This gives them some staying power.
Red Hat is in good shape, too. They have around $88 million in cash less liabilities, and they're losing money at around $14 million a year. So they have a few years if they don't overexpand. Red Hat is trying to do a second-round public offering to raise more money, presumably so they can overexpand. When they filed with the SEC for that offering in January, their stock was at 131; now it's around 59. That's an bad situation in which to try another offering, but they don't need immediate cash to operate.
So neither of those companies is going to go away quickly. They're in businesses that don't really take heavy capital investment, after all. On the other hand, as stocks, both are incredibly overpriced, as the market is recognizing.
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RHAT and LNUX cash flowWell, let's look at the cash flow situations for the Linux companies. A look at the latest SEC 10-Q filings, the quarterly reports, gives us a snapshot of the cash situation of each.
VA Linux has about $130 million in cash less liabilities, and they're losing money at an annual rate of about $46 million. (This is computed as 4x the most recent quarterly figure.) So they're in good shape in the cash department, and have two or three years to become profitable. Yes, the stock is tanking, but they have the money in the bank. This gives them some staying power.
Red Hat is in good shape, too. They have around $88 million in cash less liabilities, and they're losing money at around $14 million a year. So they have a few years if they don't overexpand. Red Hat is trying to do a second-round public offering to raise more money, presumably so they can overexpand. When they filed with the SEC for that offering in January, their stock was at 131; now it's around 59. That's an bad situation in which to try another offering, but they don't need immediate cash to operate.
So neither of those companies is going to go away quickly. They're in businesses that don't really take heavy capital investment, after all. On the other hand, as stocks, both are incredibly overpriced, as the market is recognizing.
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IBM's bad decade on the desktopIBM has had a terrible decade on the desktop. They lost control of the PC business, failed with OS/2, discovered that Java still isn't ready for prime time, and had a disasterous fling with Apple (IBM was going to make Mac-compatibles, remember?). Only their mainframe business saved them. Jumping on the Linux bandwagon is consistent with their non-strategy.
But it's good to have a real company behind Linux. The "Linux companies" may not have much time left. VA Linux continues its screaming dive with no sign of a pullout (it's at 87 right now, down from over 100 last week), and Red Hat doesn't look all that great either. Red Hat's latest partner: StupidPC. (Really)
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IBM's bad decade on the desktopIBM has had a terrible decade on the desktop. They lost control of the PC business, failed with OS/2, discovered that Java still isn't ready for prime time, and had a disasterous fling with Apple (IBM was going to make Mac-compatibles, remember?). Only their mainframe business saved them. Jumping on the Linux bandwagon is consistent with their non-strategy.
But it's good to have a real company behind Linux. The "Linux companies" may not have much time left. VA Linux continues its screaming dive with no sign of a pullout (it's at 87 right now, down from over 100 last week), and Red Hat doesn't look all that great either. Red Hat's latest partner: StupidPC. (Really)
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IBM's bad decade on the desktopIBM has had a terrible decade on the desktop. They lost control of the PC business, failed with OS/2, discovered that Java still isn't ready for prime time, and had a disasterous fling with Apple (IBM was going to make Mac-compatibles, remember?). Only their mainframe business saved them. Jumping on the Linux bandwagon is consistent with their non-strategy.
But it's good to have a real company behind Linux. The "Linux companies" may not have much time left. VA Linux continues its screaming dive with no sign of a pullout (it's at 87 right now, down from over 100 last week), and Red Hat doesn't look all that great either. Red Hat's latest partner: StupidPC. (Really)
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It may be too lateIt's awfully late to be doing a Linux IPO. Both Red Hat and VA Linux are tanking. VA Linux remains in their screaming dive; they just dropped to 93 as I write this, down from over 100 only yesterday morning and 320 in December. A lousy time to launch yet another Linux IPO.
Remember, these are tiny companies with no profits and little unique technology. They don't have anything that makes them valuable. Even worse, considering they have a business model that consists of putting free stuff in a box and selling it, it's embarassing that the Linux companies lose money. They're going to make it up on volume? Yeah, right.
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It may be too lateIt's awfully late to be doing a Linux IPO. Both Red Hat and VA Linux are tanking. VA Linux remains in their screaming dive; they just dropped to 93 as I write this, down from over 100 only yesterday morning and 320 in December. A lousy time to launch yet another Linux IPO.
Remember, these are tiny companies with no profits and little unique technology. They don't have anything that makes them valuable. Even worse, considering they have a business model that consists of putting free stuff in a box and selling it, it's embarassing that the Linux companies lose money. They're going to make it up on volume? Yeah, right.
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WhateverIt happens. SIGGRAPH was once a minor technical conference of the Association for Computing Machinery's Special Interest Group on Graphics. It now fills the L.A. convention center.
Besides, the Linux hype is winding down. Look at the Red Hat and VA Linux stock prices. VA Linux hit another new low today; they're down to 96. Red Hat isn't doing well, either.
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WhateverIt happens. SIGGRAPH was once a minor technical conference of the Association for Computing Machinery's Special Interest Group on Graphics. It now fills the L.A. convention center.
Besides, the Linux hype is winding down. Look at the Red Hat and VA Linux stock prices. VA Linux hit another new low today; they're down to 96. Red Hat isn't doing well, either.
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Re:Finally...After almost a year of being owned by Andover, Slashdot finally links to a story on Andover News,...
And to the home page, too, not to the story, so you get to read all the banner ads. Grr.In other Andover-related news, the stock of the parent company, VA Linux, dropped below 100 for the first time today. This continues the screaming dive from the high of 320 only last December. How low can it go?
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Re:VA LINUX and REDHAT stock to fallStock To Fall? They've already fallen a long way, and continue to fall. VA Linux has been falling for months. It's at a third of its peak last fall. Their acqusition of Andover.net and Slashdot only pumped the stock up for about a week, after which it went back to its usual dive. Red Hat isn't doing too well, either. It's down to around 40% of peak.
Both are in continued steep declines. This is the usual pattern after a speculative bubble. The real question is where they'll bottom out. Both are unprofitable, so none of the usual financial metrics apply. The theoretical bottom for a money-losing company is zero. Live by the hype, die by the hype.
The insiders can cash out after six months now. The restricted period used to be two years, so the company actually had to become a success for the insiders to profit. No longer. Watch the insider trading reports. So far, nobody can sell, but wait.
Note: I have no holdings or short interests in either company.
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Re:VA LINUX and REDHAT stock to fallStock To Fall? They've already fallen a long way, and continue to fall. VA Linux has been falling for months. It's at a third of its peak last fall. Their acqusition of Andover.net and Slashdot only pumped the stock up for about a week, after which it went back to its usual dive. Red Hat isn't doing too well, either. It's down to around 40% of peak.
Both are in continued steep declines. This is the usual pattern after a speculative bubble. The real question is where they'll bottom out. Both are unprofitable, so none of the usual financial metrics apply. The theoretical bottom for a money-losing company is zero. Live by the hype, die by the hype.
The insiders can cash out after six months now. The restricted period used to be two years, so the company actually had to become a success for the insiders to profit. No longer. Watch the insider trading reports. So far, nobody can sell, but wait.
Note: I have no holdings or short interests in either company.
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21 billion for Network Solutions.The only way Verisign can possibly justify paying that is to find new ways to monopolize something. That's a concern. It seems late for Network Solutions to do much in that area, now that there's competition in name registration, but they've been trying. The latest scheme is to make it difficult to make changes using their basic service, while making it easier if you buy their unnecessary "value-added" services. But that's a short-term revenue-enhancing strategy. Domain name pricing is headed down, and in fact, I suspect we'll see a lot of names go inactive in the next year or two, as it becomes clear that bulk domain hoarding is a marginal business.
Think about how much money 21 billion is. You could replicate the entire US Internet backbone for less. You could replicate AOL's entire system for less. And Network Solutions provides what, after all, is a minor piece of the system. It's like a steering wheel manufacturer selling for more than a car company.
We're seeing a frantic effort by Internet bubble companies to acquire before their idiotic market caps go away. And they are going away. VA Linux, for example, continues its screaming dive down from 320. It's at 110 right now, about 1/3 of the peak last fall. They got down to 101 a few days ago. It used to be that you didn't see drops like that for anything short of a bankruptcy.
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It pumped up VA Linux stock...Well, the acquisition did something for VA Linux; it pulled their stock out of its screaming dive, at least for a while. I suppose they have to do something with that market cap before it goes away. Acquiring Andover and Slashdot gives VA Linux some legitimacy; now they're an "internet company", instead of just a hardware and software reseller.
Personally, I consider Red Hat legitimate but overvalued, LinuxOne a scam, and VA Linux somewhere in between.
For those of you in Silicon Valley, the authors of "The Internet Bubble" are speaking at Kepler's Books in Menlo Park this Wednesday evening. I recommend this to anybody who thinks investing in this outfit is a good idea.
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Re:I hope their IPO doesn't rocket...Red Hat stock seems to be doing OK, while VA Linux seems to be in a screaming dive. It's probably too late for a third player, especially a flakey one.
Incidentally, VA Linux does not make hardware. They're a reseller for a small PC assembler in Fremont, CA. Read their SEC filing.
Historically, there are very few examples of companies that had huge price/revenue ratios and eventually grew up to generate enough profits to justify them. (Exercise for investors: name three.) But there are many examples of speculative bubbles.
The Linux stocks aren't the usual growth company situation. Usually, you have big revenue, big expenses, and small profits. The classic good example is Amazon.com. (The classic bad example is Buy.com, which has a business model of selling at a loss and making it up on volume.) But both Red Hat and VA Linux have small revenue, no profits, no valuable assets, and a huge market cap. That's not a growth company. It's something else, and it's not good.
The current market is running on what's called "greater fool theory", the hope that, even though you own something that's overpriced, there's some sucker out there who will buy it for even more money. As with all Ponzi schemes, eventually you run out of suckers.
There is going to be a bloodbath in these stocks. Probably this year.
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Re:I hope their IPO doesn't rocket...Red Hat stock seems to be doing OK, while VA Linux seems to be in a screaming dive. It's probably too late for a third player, especially a flakey one.
Incidentally, VA Linux does not make hardware. They're a reseller for a small PC assembler in Fremont, CA. Read their SEC filing.
Historically, there are very few examples of companies that had huge price/revenue ratios and eventually grew up to generate enough profits to justify them. (Exercise for investors: name three.) But there are many examples of speculative bubbles.
The Linux stocks aren't the usual growth company situation. Usually, you have big revenue, big expenses, and small profits. The classic good example is Amazon.com. (The classic bad example is Buy.com, which has a business model of selling at a loss and making it up on volume.) But both Red Hat and VA Linux have small revenue, no profits, no valuable assets, and a huge market cap. That's not a growth company. It's something else, and it's not good.
The current market is running on what's called "greater fool theory", the hope that, even though you own something that's overpriced, there's some sucker out there who will buy it for even more money. As with all Ponzi schemes, eventually you run out of suckers.
There is going to be a bloodbath in these stocks. Probably this year.
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Re:SourceForge; also contact Red Hat, VA, etc.I have some misgivings about SourceForge. Their terms of service are too one-sided. For example, they can yank source for any project off SourceForge at any time, while retaining nonexclusive rights to the content. They also want SourceForge users to indemnify SourceForge against third-party claims. Read their TOS. Until there's a mirror site not under VA Linux control, I'd avoid relying on SourceForge for primary source code storage.
Yeah, VA Linux are good guys and all that, but you have to look ahead to the next change of control, either due to acquisition or other management events. VA Linux is headed for heavy stockholder pressure; look at LNUX stock, down more than 50% from the first day. Scary.
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Re:the real story is
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Check out Etoys stock (ETYS)
I wonder whether Etoyss bullying tactics and
the following bad press had contributed to the dive of Etoys stock.
Check out here. A friend of mine bought at 57 because he was sure
that ETYS had potential.
Then came the dive. Oooops. That hurts.
This ETOY-ETOYS battle shows that even
small guys have a chance against big guys if they
march united.
Another reason to think about supporting the
Electronic Frontier Foundation.
I today subscribed for a membership. Costs me 35
bucks per year. I think that these people do
a good job supporting my interests. Nobody should
feel pressed to subcribe, but consider that
you still can do some good before y2k hits us and
our boxes and well have to shine up before our Lord and blah blah....
Give them a hand, they IMHO deserve it.