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How Much Digital Tool Convergence Is Possible?
webword asks: "There are many geek tools in the world, e.g., Palm Pilots, desktop computers, cell phones, cameras, digital watches. I've seen things recently like Samsung's cell phone camera and on Slashdot we've talked about the merger of cell phones and PDAs. Obviously, as time goes on, technology will improve so that these tools can talk to each other. However, it is entirely unclear how much physical merging can occur. There are screen limitations, human memory limitations, color limitations and so forth. So, just how much can our devices merge?"
...of mainstream devices for a while, at least. It's because of size and convenience factors. I can go out and use a variety of best-of-breed tools today to accomplish my needs, or look for a big honkin' everything device, but I think the discrete device approach is better. Here's why.
Merging the PDA and the cellphone works, to a point. But numberic keypads are a horribly inefficient text entry method, and keyboards go against the grain of the smaller phones in the market nowadays. Want to see a merged PDA/cellphone? The PDQ phone from Kyocera (formerly Qualcomm) works pretty well, despite it's size. It combines a CDMA cellphone with a Palm III.
2-way pagers and e-mail devices are also probably going to merge into the PDA in the future. The Motorola devices (sold by SkyTel) and Blackberry don't stand that well on their own when compared to a PDA with wireless capability. If the coverage associated with devices like GoAmerica's Minstrel for the Palm V series can be solved (the Minstrel for the Palm V uses CDPD, mostly available on the East Coast except for Atlanta), then a PDA with wireless will blow away the 2-way paging market.
On my belt, at any given time, you can find one or more of the following:
Motorola PageWriter 2000X (SkyTel 2-way paging)
Palm Vx
Motorola StarTac CDMA
Leatherman Wave
And that's just on my belt or in my pockets. When I carry a briefcase, it has either my iBook or a Dell Inspiron 7500 in it, along with connectivity gear, chargers, etc. I take a healhty back satchel with me to trade shows, meetings, and so forth that I use to carry my GoType and any paperwork I need, too.
Now, let's take a look at what can be replaced or combined:
I could get the GoAmerica service for my Palm Vx and dump the SkyTel pager. But the pager will receive pages virtually anywhere in the US, and send in many places, unlike the Minstrel which relies on the CDPD network. I live north of Boston, where CDPD coverage is good, but the BellSouth wireless and ARDIS coverage (what RIM's devices use) sucks. So a Blackberry is out. I go to Atlanta a couple of times a year, so that's a strike against the Minstrel - Atlanta is the only major East Coast metro area with no CDPD. And I spend a lot of leisure time on the Vineyard, where CDPD works in some locations but not others, and none of the other services work at all - but I can get pages.
So I'm stuck with the pager for now, until something better is more built out.
The Palm is something you'd have to rip from my cold dead fingers. I use it everywhere, for reading, storing technical reference material, and organizing my life. I also sync a huge load of content with AvantGo whenever I'm plugged in. As I said above, I'd take it wireless, but there's a lot of coverage issues for me. I also have a GoType keyboard that I use sometimes to make it a laptop substitute. The Palm stays.
The cellphone stays because it's tri-band (800 MHz AMPS, 800 MHz CDMA, 1900 PCS), tiny, and it works anywhere I've ever been. I can tuck it in a pocket or a glove compartment, it's relatively cheap to feed ($35/month), and there are times you have to talk to someone by voice. I prefer using the pager, though, when possible. I don't give people my cellular number, but I do give them my e-mail address.
The Leatherman stays because it's mondo cool. I have a Micra on my keychain though, making it the first thing I dump from my belt. I also keep a PST in my car.
The problem is that all these devices are small, but together they're large. The only thing I can really see combining are the Palm and the pager, though. If the cellphone were bigger I'd probably leave it at home - like I did the Qualcomm 820 I used to have.
Each one performs a discrete function and can be ditched if I need to. The Palm would be the last one to go, I think, since too much of my brain is outsourced to it. I think that's why I prefer to have several smaller devices each performing a given function than to make it monolithic. If any one device is not functioning or not available I can use the others. If I'm going to put all my eggs in one basket, it needs to be a heck of a basket, and I don't think that level of integration, miniaturization, reliability, and low cost will be practical anytime soon.
But whoever designs a 2-way pager, PDA, and cell phone that takes up the space of a Palm V, plays MP3's, gets me e-mail and web content, and runs on a battery charge for a couple of days straight, please drop me an e-mail and I'll come buy it. Maybe.
- -Josh Turiel
-- Josh Turiel
"2. Do not eat iPod Shuffle."
does your cell phone really need to be both a cell phone and a PDA? (try typing a long URL on a cell phone and you'll give up forever)
is your PDA really going to replace your workstation or laptop?
is your laptop going to replace your corporate server farm?
the fact is that most people would rather have a variety of personalized and specialized devices, but sometimes they hate the redundancy of keeping a phone book on both their PDA and their cell phone, a calendar on their PDA and their intranet, and your laptop and network sync through things such as MS Exchange (sorry, but I really like that program).
The ability to have multiple devices with different capabilities sync together is what is going to drive the mobilization of our technology-driven society. These hybrid PDA's aren't the way of the future. But if I was able to sync my phone book on my intranet to my PDA and from the PDA to my StarTAC, I'd be psyched.
Sync'ing is the way of the future.
I believe that a certain amount of convergence is practical and even desireable. However, some things just don't *want* to be converged. This is why i think the "Pocket PCs" are somewhat silly. Even if they ran a decent OS, many of their capabilities don't make much sense. Why would I want to use an AIM program where I had to type each letter on an onscreen keyboard? Why would I use a web browser that had a maximum screenres of 180x100 (or thereabouts)?
Sure, you can get a lot done with virtual displays on semi-VR goggles, but would you want to do that while sitting on the subway? (Hello, I'm a tool). The keyboard issue is no small one, either, you can either use a detatchable keyboard that folds or what have you, which while being cool and all still makes it so you have to set up your "PDA" as a laptop. Or we could use a virtual keyboard with VR gloves, which while being cool just plain doesn't exist and won't for a while now.
I have no problem converging PDAs with phones and pagers, but to make them try to do more would make them unuseable for the things you really need them for. I think, at least at the current state of the art, there should be a line between "PCs" and PDAs/Communication devices.
"He's more machine now than man, twisted and evil."
But why must cellphones be kept small? Why can't they be used for browsing? In any case, even if you accept the idea that cell phones must be kept small, you can't get any smaller than folding their functionality into another device that you already have. That makes them effectively zero size, though in practice you'll need at least a plug-in headset.
The big driving force for convergence is that many people already have multiple gadgets with somewhat overlapping functionality, and it makes sense to combine the functions into a single gadget instead. For instance, many people already have a PDA and a cell phone. The PDA has a contact list that contains phone numbers, and the phone has an autodialer list. The PDA may be a wireless one, like the Palm VII, and the phone may have wireless web. At that point, you're severely duplicating functions and adding needless complexity and cost.
It might very well be simpler and cheaper just to design a Palm IX that has all of the functions of the Palm VII and also lets you plug in a headset to get phone functionality. You can also get some additional advantages, like being instantly able to phone anyone after they've beamed you their business card. You can even get new functions, like being able to update a person's information every time you phone them, guarantee that appointments that you arrange over the phone are automatically entered in both people's calendar list, etc.
There's no point in questioning authority if you aren't going to listen to the answers.
Most of the arguments against convergence are driven by desktop analogies - which are clearly innapplicable.
Most of the arguments for convergence are driven by Bluetooth-type fantasies - but this doesn't deal with the reality of the immediate market.
The fact is, the ultimate convergence device could be built today. In this market, even a few months coudl spell the difference between total domination and second-rate status, so let's design a machine that could be manufactured next month and be on sale by X-Mas. Here are the specs (modify/iterate freely in replies):
- Palm form factor
- Palm OS
- Encrypted Wallet Application
- WAP browser
- Wireless antenna
.
- built-in cell phone
- audio jack
- dedicated storage expansion slot
- IR port
- Standard integrated pager
The reason for this feature set is simple. The intersection of cell-phone users and PDA users is a SIGNIFICANT fraction of PDA users. While true that not all cell phone users need a PDA, almost all PDA users need a cell phone, and therefore have two devices hanging off their belt. The Palm Wireless showed us that you can add wireless capability to the Palm form factor without significantly adding size/weight, and proper ergonomic design would allow the cell phone aspect of this PDA-phone to be minimized. hey Sony! paying attention?. The form factor could be thickened a bit or ergonomically designed for either one-handed use (like the Sony Palm) or beltclip access.
. The large base of third-party apps make this the best choice. WinCE has too much emotional baggage and it would take about a year for full-fledged Linux equivalents to get coded on the same scale. PalmOS is a mature apps platform.
. Critical app! This device should lessen the wallet load and allow you to store all personal data digitally instead of on pieces of paper.
. (duh)
.
. Regarding form factor, if the ergonomic design is done well, the reverse side of the device could have the voice speaker and earpiece and still be a comfortable grip. The entire device should still weigh less than a land-line cordless phone.
. essential for plugging in standard headphones. Audio DSP chip would be ideal and well-worth a $25 dollar increase in price, so digital audio and cell phone audio could be integrated.
. The only thing people really need is more storage in terms of peripherals. Something along the lines of Memory Stick is needed - VERY small form factor and essentially negligible weight.
. for local data sharing and interactivity with other users.
. The pager should operate using the same antenna as the cell phone, but be configurable to operate with any paging service. Any PCS user can tell you that the integrated pager sucks when indoors.
--
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Don't blame me - I voted for Howard Dean. http://dean2004.blogspot.com
Well, I figure with glue and duct-tape, you can merge anything with anything... :)
That's for sure. We regularly tote around PDAs and cell phones that have more computer power and storage than refrigeraor-sized minicomputers did 20 years ago.
It looks to me that the limits are based on the same things it has always been:
Input has advanced from punch cards and teletypes to usable speech recognition and spy-sized video cameras.
Moore's law has held up so far; we're gaining two-fold increases every 18 months.
Output devices have shrunk tremendously to the point we can easily make them so small that their images are illegible. As for audio, Sony has shrunk an MP3 player to the size of a large pen.
We continue to make amazing progress in miniaturization. Cell phones used to be the size of a briefcase. Especially with nanomachines coming in the foreseeable future.
Protocols and compressed streams bode well here for fat pipes to/from anywhere, too. Blue Tooth, MP3, MP4, and 3rd Generation Wireless all come to mind.
We regularly expect, and see, more power and capabilities in computers and technology, at a lower cost, year after year.
As I see it, the limits we are now seeing have to do with the limits of the humans which need to interact with these devices. It's only a matter of time until we can go no further in size reduction. Unless, we begin using borg-like augmentations to our human sensory network. And much of the work is already under way:
My guess? In 5-10 years, implanted technology will be in the hands (umm, well, heads) of the early adopters.
Given the fact that to some extent for cameras and cell phones and even PDA's, form follows function and they have vastly different functions, trying to have one form that encompasses them all is foolish. You get something that is a jack of all trades and master of none. It's better to have devices that are optimized for complementary uses. The PDA is your generic data entry and display device. The cell phone is voice communication. The camera is to record visual data. The key is to make all of these specialists work together as a team.
Personally I wouldn't mind having a cell phone and a PDA but having the two of them talk to each other seamlessly. Indeed, I could see the PDA being bright enough to know that I have a cell phone and use it to do long range wireless, which would spread the load of work done across multiple batteries. And as for my electronic camera, if it can instantly transfer the photographs it takes over to my PDA, that would be fine and dandy. The PDA acts as the hub of my personal LAN, the brain controlling it, with cell phone and camera as periphials.
Come to think of it, that's the best analogy I can think of. Would you really want a personal computer with a printer and scanner built in? Or even a laptop that's built that way? It can be done and you could argue there's an all-in-one utility factor, but even for a laptop people tend to back down from that. The personal computer industry could have converged but didn't. They realized (consciously or not) that it was better to have those periphials separated from the main box. The iMac or laptops are the limit for integration there.
And so I think we're going to see the same thing on the personal devices level. The PDA takes the place of the computer and the other devices become things that connect via wireless to it.
A little thinking out loud...
HUDs are the way to go to cure the physical screen limitation. Bonus is you get a little more privacy.
Micro Optical Corporation has the right idea with their Clip-On. IBM could pull it off with their Wearable stuff.
For audio, look to the In-Ear monitors musicians use...
For the rest of it, I think Charmed Technology has the right idea. The ultimate form for our every-day tech is when it no longer looks like tech. It's the peripherals that count. A single screen that can pull the video from any device, clip-on headphones to listen to any audio, and cameras and microphones added as you see fit - the Blue Tooth promise.
To be honest, the barriers to physical size reduction are power-source and connectivity between chips. Watch the SOC developments (System-On-Chip) for significant shrinks from multi-chip to single-chip forms. At the rate feature size is shrinking on-chip, the limitation isn't how many transistors or gates you can squeeze on, it's how many bond-pads you need to I/O with the chip.
Aside: Bought myself a couple of E-holsters to take care of more immediate gadget-loading. Works well under a sweater or jacket.
--The more you know, the less you know.