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Ask Dan Kusnetzky About Linux Server Counts

Posted by Roblimo on from the is-it-science-art-or-marketing? dept.

How many people run Linux as a desktop OS? How many servers run Linux? Is the Linux server market share 8.6 percent or 24 percent or somewhere in between? Dan Kusnetzky is a heavily quoted analyst at IDC who wrestles with questions like these for a living. This is your chance to find out how analysts come up with all those numbers -- and why analysts seem to disagree with each other so often. One question per post, please. We'll send 10 of the highest-moderated ones to Dan, and post his answers as soon as we get them back.

12 of 109 comments (clear)

  1. *what* consititutes a Linux server? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5

    At what point does a computer become a server? Many Linux desktops have ftp, telnet & http ports open, so do they count as severs too?

  2. Re:Question(ADDNUM) by HeUnique · · Score: 5

    I just remembered an Idea that a friend of mine suggested:

    What if IDC could work with the Linux distributions (RedHat, Mandrake, SuSE, TurboLinux, Debian) to add a small program which will run after the first internet connection has been succsessfull..

    When this program runs - it will ask the user to "register" his copy of the distribution. If it has been purchased from one of the distributors - then the user can add his serial number. Some other questions like will this distribution be used as a server, a workstation, or combination of the 2, or a development workstation. The survey SHOULD be annonymous (unless the user wants to give some details about himself)

    By that way - the distributors can give the numbers back to IDC - and IDC can publish a report which will tell that the number of Linux installations - and that number is X. X is combined of Y free download version and Z purchased copies of Linux.

    What do you think, Dan? what the slashdot readers think about it?

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    Hetz (Heunique)
  3. Data origins by m2 · · Score: 5

    Do you base your data mostly on marketing analysis or do you actually go a pay a consultor to scan machines on the net? If there are scans involved, how do you pick the IP blocks to be scanned and what's the uncertainty associated with such a method (and how is this uncertainty guessed)? If there are no scans involved, why not? If this is "maket analysis", can you defined that for me? Which factors are involved? And a different question: who's the target market for this kind of study? How much does such a thing cost?

  4. Reproducibility by DragonWyatt · · Score: 5
    Has any thought been put into doing a "reproducibilty challenge" against Gartner? That is,
    1. Ask Gartner their methodology,
    2. Document it so that it can be reproduced;
    3. Make sure and get Gartner to say "yep that's how we did it".
    4. Dan&Co reproduces the methodology and compares the numbers
    Might be overly scientific. Maybe consider it an "Open Source" version of market research because of the peer review and verification. Some may think this approach has no place in the market research area.

    But, I (for one) think it would be interesting to call Gartner's Bluff (if indeed that's what this is). I personally place them (and ZD, etc) into the Shill category.

    Thoughts anyone?
    --
    Don't sweat the petty things. But do pet the sweaty things.
  5. I just have to ask... by Ded+Bob · · Score: 5

    Might he have the stats on the BSD's. People from the BSD community are curious. :)

    TIA

  6. Self-fulfilling analysis? by dvk · · Score: 5
    Do you think that there exists a possibility (or can even provide examples of) self-fullfilling analysis, such as "analysis says X is losing market share=>people get skeptical about X=>X loses market share although it may not have done so otherwise"?

    If it is possible or already happened, do analysts in general (and you in particular) find it a worrisom possibility, and if so, are there any attempts/ideas to deal with the issue?

    Thanks,
    DVK

    --
    "The right to figure things out for yourself is the only true freedom everyone shares. Go use it"-R.A.Heinlein
  7. Funding by ritlane · · Score: 5

    In studies of market share(or studies in general), we often hear quotes about who funded them. This seems to somehow imply that those who funded the study had some influence in how the data was gathered/interpreted.

    My question is: Do those who fund a study influence how the study turns out (ie. Microsoft studies show higher MS market share). Or is it that these corperations only decide to fund groups who they know will most likely return results in thier favor.


    ---Lane

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    What's the point of moderating?!
  8. Who Keeps track of the Predictions by dmccarty · · Score: 5
    Mr. Kusnetzky,

    I have a question on the area of predictions in general. For example, fellow IDC analyst Jill House has been severaly negative on Palm over the years, with regard to the Win CE operating system and devices. A sample quote from her in Feb. 2000 read, "If I was Palm, I would be beside myself with panic."

    The issue is, that over the last 3 - 4 years she's been predicting the demise of Palm and the rise of Win CE, a claim that has never materialized. Who verifies the reliability of these predictions and keeps the analysts accountable. With the frequent sound bytes and one-liners that they give to the press, these analysts have significant influence over public perception of the issues. But how is policing done when the analysts don't analyze very well?

    Sincerely,
    Daniel McCarty
    Palm OS Developer

    --
    Have fun: Join D.N.A. (National Dyslexics Association)
  9. What about the so-called "third world"? by Kareem+Abdul-Lamarr · · Score: 5

    Do these analyses factor in the so-called third world? Most of these analyses are US-centric or some times do include the continent across the pond but what about Africa and Asia? Do these analyses *really* take inputs from these continents?

  10. Here's a simple one... by RareHeintz · · Score: 5
    Do you think Gartner Group caved in ethically when Microsoft paid them for this study? That is, do you believe it to be a purchased fabrication? Or might it be an honest mistake, a difference in data analysis, or something less sinister?

    Thanks for your time,
    - Brad Heintz
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    http://www.bradheintz.com/
    - updated
  11. Polling questions by cavemanf16 · · Score: 5

    I have often wondered how biased polls are based on the questions asked, the demographics of the people polled, etc. When results about polls are made public, is it also possible to obtain information about how the poll was conducted in a simple, by request method? Now if the answer to that question is, no, how much can we rely on polls, since we have no way of verifying if the questions asked and the people interviewed were heavily biased to favor one outcome over another? (Such as in the recent large discrepancies of the 8% vs. 24% use of Linux as a server results that we've seen on Slashdot recently).

  12. More breakdown needed by BillyGoatThree · · Score: 5

    When People magazine does an issue devoted to "what's hot" in fashion, do they interview Jane Doe from Des Moines, Iowa? No.

    So why are OS numbers reported with equal rating? Not all users are equally suited to *choose* an OS, therefore not all users *choices* are equally interesting. I'd really like to see a breakdown of OS by user-type (levels of education, field of degree if applicable, occupation, etc). Keep in mind this applies just as much to business. A technology company presumably put more informed thought into their choice of server than an art supply house or whatever.
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