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Flare Sends A Gigaton Of Solar Detritus Toward Earth

Dr. Zowie writes: "This morning at about 10:00 UT, a major explosion occured on the Sun. The solar X-ray output went up by over 1,000 times. About a billion tons of material are speeding toward Earth at over a million miles per hour, and should hit sometime in the next couple of days. Low latitude aurorae and anomalies in radio communications and power service are likely consequences. You can see the event from the SOHO spacecraft's home page -- images and movies are here. In the movies, watch for the burst of radiation hitting SOHO about 13:00 UT -- that's a high energy proton storm caused by the flare itself. You can also see the earthly effects of a similar event from last year."

38 of 148 comments (clear)

  1. The sky is falling .... by davidu · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The sky is falling...

    Here's my mirror of the two coolest "wallpaper" size images:

    The Blue One

    The Green One

    -davidu

    --

    # Hack the planet, it's important.
  2. dag NABBIT!!! by Micah · · Score: 2

    And we're supposed to have rain the next couple days! After months of mostly clear skies! Aaaarghgh!

    1. Re:dag NABBIT!!! by AntiPasto · · Score: 2

      dude! yup.... first thing I thought of and now we got this nasty cold front just sitting on me!

  3. should hit sometime in the next couple of days? by MrBlack · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Shouldn't we be able to calculate time of impact a little more precisely than this?

    1. Re:should hit sometime in the next couple of days? by Yazeran · · Score: 5, Interesting
      In theory yes, but remember that this plasma is charged particles and such interact with magnetic fields. The inner solar system is a mess of magnetic fields. Most of these are made by the sun itself, and as such it is not a homogenious field! The sun has no fixed magnetic poles like earth or a bar magnet, thus the solar magnetic field is in a constant state of flux. This insteady magnetic environment will affect the speed and direction of the plasmas ejected from the sun, giving rise to large uncertainties in the arival time.


      Yours Yazeran


      Plan: to go to Mars one day with a hammer.

    2. Re:should hit sometime in the next couple of days? by GeoNerd · · Score: 2, Informative
      Yeah, what he said - also the particle stream will most likely be spread out over several days.

      For example, look at the various graphs at the Space Environment Center and you can see that different things hit at different times. Right now were getting bombarded by the EM and high energy protons, while the matter from the coronal mass ejection will not get here for a few days. The radio blackouts and sensor dazzling are from the EM (X-rays mostly) and we're getting that NOW. But the matter from the coronal mass ejection is hurtling through space towards earth at some (relatively unknown) speed that depends on the speed at which it was ejected. THAT's the stuff that generates drag on satellites, causes the aurora, etc.

      Also it's nearly impossible to calculate when you'll see the aurora, because that depends a lot on local conditions and a lot of other stuff that is completely unknown to science. Best bet is to keep an eye on the data from the POES satellite, which has some great plots showing likely auroral activity.

  4. Glad we have a magnetosphere by bryan1945 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    (sp?) If not, we would be Tater Tots in about 10 hours or so. Really, though, without an electromagnetic field, our planet would pretty much be blasted by the "solar wind" to the point that Mars or Venus would look like a vacation area compared to that version of hell. Another point not to forget is the ozone shield which filters out most UV radiation, where no shield was good at first (to cause mutations into higher lifeforms, like plants, but is now bad) but now is essential to not irradiate humans into extinction. Of course CO2 is bad/good because it will raise/lower global temperatures soon/never so our lives will be altered now/never. This last part is motly right.

    --
    Vote monkeys into Congress. They are cheaper and more trustworthy.
    1. Re:Glad we have a magnetosphere by Yazeran · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Actually Venus do not have any magentic field shielding it from the suns particle bombardment. This gives rise to some interesting interactions in the upper atmosphere of Venus.


      The reason for the absence of a magnetic field in Venus is first that it rotates soo slowly (actually it rotates 'backwards' as the orbital angular speed is greater than the rotational angular speed. The second reason for absence of magnetic fields is that the surface temperature is above the Curie tempeature for most magnetic minerals, thus any remanent magnetic field that might have been preserved from Venus earlier life is erased.


      The remanent magnetisation in some ferrous minerals is also the reason for the Moons small magnetic field, evidenting, that the moon had a planetary magnetic field like earth in it's earlier life when the lavalakes (the mares) were emplaced.


      Yours Yazeran


      Plan: To go to Mars one day with a hammer.

    2. Re:Glad we have a magnetosphere by srand · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually doesn't the polarity of the N-S magnetic axis flip every 10,000 years or so? I was reading some article in Nature about how scientists used that fact to carbon date fossils in Antarctica.

      Anyway...when that happens, there is no electromagnetic field and nothing to protect the earth from solar radiation so there are lots of birth defects and things getting cancer. But scientists also think that's the reason there is such diversity in life on Earth because during these periods, tons of mutants are created.

  5. More information at spaceweather.com by B.D.Mills · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.spaceweather.com has more information about this flare.

    It is a class S3 flare, which is strong enough to expose people travelling in commercial jets at high altitude to radiation equivalent to 1 chest x-ray. On average, the Sun only has about a dozen storms this strong or stronger every solar cycle (11 years). In other words, it's a fairly big one. (reference: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiation Storms

    --

    The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. - Edmund Burke
    1. Re:More information at spaceweather.com by GeoNerd · · Score: 2, Informative

      I don't want to seem overly picky here, but it's actually an X2.6 class flare - the resulting radiation storm is an S3 class event.

    2. Re:More information at spaceweather.com by B.D.Mills · · Score: 2

      Right now, we are just past the peak of the 11-year solar cycle, with the Sun having more spots on its face than a teenager with acne. These spots are the cause of a lot of the solar activity we are seeing.

      --

      The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. - Edmund Burke
  6. Oh no! Not again! by John_Booty · · Score: 4, Funny

    This morning at about 10:00 UT, a major explosion occured on the Sun
    God damned terrorists!

    --

    OtakuBooty.com: Smart, funny, sexy nerds.
  7. The *Sounds* of these discharges by Beautyon · · Score: 3, Interesting
    These discharges sometimes make a sound, especially when there is associated Aurora.

    For sure, I will be out with my VLF reciever to see if there are any whistlers. Ideally, one would decamp immediately to northern Sweden or Alaska to be certain of getting under some Aurora. Its quite interesting that the sound of Aurora and solar flare activity arent used in Discovery Channel programmes, news programmes & such like; its sounds MUCH better than the cheezy muzak that they normally use to illustrate the moving pictures.

    --
    ATH0 Bitcoin: 1DnwFLXczVZV8kLJbMYoheUrpqHesjxrSi
  8. Doh! by maw · · Score: 2, Funny
    Low latitude aurorae and anomalies in radio communications and power service are likely consequences.

    Doh! So much for my glorious uptime! :(

    --
    You're a suburbanite.
  9. Practically Speaking by maggard · · Score: 5, Informative
    This will have repercussions on long-distance communications & electrical transmission.

    Satellites will likely be affected, indeed some may either have their onboard electronics so disrupted they cease to function temporarily or permanently, in other cases the cameras they use for determining proper altitude may become so filled with transient glitches that they loose lock & station-keeping is compromised.

    The Earth's ionosphere will expand and the Van Allen Radiation Belts will become heavily charged resulting in numerous radio transmission oddities ranging from increased static interference to long skips. Low Earth Orbit objects will experience increased drag and possibly require altitude increases. Inhabitants of the ISS should be protected by the magnetosphere though increased radiation counts will be experienced.

    Long-distance electrical transmission lines will build up significant charge. The lines in Northern Quebec are especially vulnerable from to their high latitude and lack of grounding due to the ancient granitic nature of the Canadian Shield. However measures put in place since the "Great Northeast Blackout of 1965" should be sufficient to keep any failures local and not produce a domino effect.

    To Geeks the result will be poor phone and dataline connections, possibly isolated electrical outages. TV signals will be poor as will most other forms of radio & microwave transmissions. Doubtless a few bits will flip from one state to another in the course of this but this will only be noticeable in very large samples.

    The good news is we've just passed the first Solar Maximum of the Information Age without great issue and this bodes well for the future. Though storms like this current one are possible (with diminishing likelihood) for the next year or so it appears fears of widespread disruption due to Solar-Max of were unfounded and along with the GPS rollover, y2k, unix t_time going to 10 digits, various odd dates etc. we've managed to come through all remarkably unscathed.

    --
    I don't read ACs: If a post isn't worth so much as a nom de plume to its author then I wont bother either.
    1. Re:Practically Speaking by BlueUnderwear · · Score: 2
      This will have repercussions on long-distance communications & electrical transmission.

      No problem. People will just blame it on the IIS worm du jour, predict Internet Death at 11 (tm), and later sheepishly admit that this time it was actually solar flares that ate the bandwidth...

      --
      Say no to software patents.
    2. Re:Practically Speaking by maggard · · Score: 2
      Please reread my posting.

      Nowhere does it imply widespread havoc or complete disruption of services. If civilian GPS, telecommunications, etc. continue to operate (and there's absolutely no reason to expect they wont - we been through several flares of this sort in the past few years) then you can expect military ones will too.

      Some satellites will experience problems but there are backups and alternates. Error rates will go up on digital transmissions and static may be annoying on analog ones but those aren't showstoppers. Some broadcasts will propagate oddly but that happens occasionally in the best of times.

      This is a medium-large flare; it is not a catastrophic situation nor is it a unique event. I expect the world's militaries will be slightly inconvenienced at most.

      --
      I don't read ACs: If a post isn't worth so much as a nom de plume to its author then I wont bother either.
    3. Re:Practically Speaking by Hard_Code · · Score: 2

      Ok, so now all we have to fear is a strange planet passing within our solar system, causing all mechanical and electrical devices to develop free will...

      --

      It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
  10. Clearly a terrorist plot... by Lethyos · · Score: 3, Funny

    Ladies and gentlemen of the House, we have yet again faced a grave terrorist threat. United States intelligence was unable to detect and then stop this obvious terrorist attack to collide material from our sun. Clearly the terrorists weren't finished with the WTC, they must now slam something into planet earth's atmosphere, and yes, even earth itself. The success of this attack is a direct result of our nation's intelligence agencies inability to crack strong crypto used by terrorists. It is obvious to demand that all cryphers hence forth have back doors for us to use to help prevent such senseless acts of wanton violence in the future.

    --
    Why bother.
    1. Re:Clearly a terrorist plot... by iabervon · · Score: 2

      Once again, people have entirely the wrong ideas about these terrorists. It is obvious that the terrorists only rely on low-tech devices, and have thus performed an attack specifically targetted at our high-tech devices. It is time the US stops relying on frigile technology for vital services and actually do the necessary legwork and have enough human involvement.

  11. When was the Concert Announced? by saihung · · Score: 3, Funny

    I hadn't realized that Disaster Area was scheduled to play this month. And me without rubber bungs for my ears.

    1. Re:When was the Concert Announced? by richie2000 · · Score: 4, Funny
      Aw, just put a fish in them instead.

      BTW, the concert was quite visibly announced in the third janitor's closet to the left in the basement of EMA/Telstar's Galactic HQ on the far side of Rigel 5. You really need to keep up with the flow of information.

      --
      Money for nothing, pix for free
  12. Solar Terrestrial Activity Report by zardor · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This site also gives a good report on solar activity. (Its from the Radio DX-Listeners' Club in Norway. They keep an eye on this type of thing because it effects their radio communications quite severely, especially since they are at quite a northern lattitude.)

    --
    -- We don't understand software, and sometimes we don't understand hardware, but we can *see* the blinking lights
  13. Standard warning issued ? by evil_roy · · Score: 2, Funny

    I suppose this is yet another day when we can't look directly at the sun ?

  14. Quick lets whip up a good Nostradamus quote by deadmantalking · · Score: 4, Funny

    And send it out as a chain mail...
    hows:
    when the blue turban man
    wields the power of his sword
    even the sun will burst out
    and light his road

    --
    A crank is a little thing that makes revolutions
    1. Re:Quick lets whip up a good Nostradamus quote by stoofa · · Score: 3, Funny

      An old man will arise, on his hands too much time
      in predicting the future, he'll make it all rhyme
      he'll write so much garbage, no-one bothers with reading
      making it easy for pranksters to invent things misleading
      like infinite monkeys with shakespearean play
      something is bound to match up on some day
      so much will he write, it'll be hit and miss
      and no-one will twig that he's taking the piss

  15. Re:How does? by John+Miles · · Score: 5, Informative

    HF radio propagation, and to a lesser extent VHF, depends on the relative height and RF permeability of the D, E, and F1 / F2 layers of the ionosphere. Both of these properties can change dramatically when the earth is bombarded with charged particles and high-energy photons from solar flares.

    Normal ionospheric behavior is the reason why AM broadcast radio reception varies so much between daytime and nighttime hours. The lower (D) layer of the ionosphere is much thinner and higher at night when it's not being hammered by as much solar radiation. The AM broadcast band is near the very bottom of the high-frequency radio spectrum, and long-distance propagation of lower radio frequencies depends primarily on refraction by the D layer. So whenever the D layer rises, the "skip zone" around a given transmitter grows considerably. It's common to see nearby AM stations fade out at night, while even low-power transmissions become audible from thousands of miles away.

    Solar flares have the same basic effect as the day/night cycle, but to a much larger degree. They usually just hose the entire HF spectrum, but sometimes the effect is very different. Under the right conditions, "ducts" and other layering effects can occur in the ionosphere, capable of propagating signals extreme distances with much less than normal loss. When you pick up a 5-watt ham radio station in Australia on your handheld shortwave radio in Texas, it's a safe bet that some unusual solar and/or geomagnetic activity is taking place.

    Disclaimer: I'm a ham operator myself, but it's been a long time since I operated on any frequency below 10 GHz, so some or all of the details above may be shaky. :) I'm not sure about the exact mechanism of ionospheric excitation during a solar flare, for instance: it might be due primarily to heavy charged particles from the solar wind, or it might be due to high-energy photons knocking loose a few extra electrons here and there. Any physics types around who can clarify?

    --
    Dahlmann tightly grips the knife, which he may have no idea how to use, and steps out into the plain.
  16. Peanuts by Random+Walk · · Score: 5, Informative
    Although this is a fairly big event for a calm, middle-age star like Sun, it is peanuts compared to the events observed for younger and more active stars of similar mass (the brightest flare ever observed on a young solar-like star released 10000 times more energy than any flare on Sun). Which implies that Earth has experienced much more impressive flare events when the Sun was young.

    Also the qouted gigaton of mass loss is not really that much. The Sun has 2x10^30 kg, and loses 5x10^9 kg per second (one from solar wind, four more from conversion of mass into the radiated energy). So one gigaton is just 200 seconds of normal mass loss.

  17. Time to consult the BOFH for advice by camusflage · · Score: 5, Funny

    In times of solar flares, the BOFH recommends: "MAGNETS. Wrap your disks up in a pillow case with lots of magnets - Solar Flares hate that"

    --
    The truth about Scientology, Xenu, and you: Operation Clambake
  18. Northern Lights Predictor by msheppard · · Score: 2

    I use this site to guage the probability of northern lights. If it's red and you're north of NYC, you've got a good chance to see some.
    ---
    Simpsons Quote:
    Skinner: [faking a yawn] Well, that was wonderful. Good time was had
    by all. I'm pooped.
    Chalmers: Yes, I guess I should be --
    [notes entire kitchen is on fire]
    Good Lord, what is happening in there?
    Skinner: Aurora Borealis?
    Chalmers: Aurora Borealis? At this time of year? A this time of day?
    In this part of the country? Localized entirely within your
    kitchen?
    Skinner: Yes.
    Chalmers: May I see it?
    Skinner: Oh, erm... No.
    -- Skinner and Superintendent,
    "Twenty-Two Short Films About Springfield"
    ---

    --
    Krispy Cream is people
  19. Solar Status Monitor by The+Dev · · Score: 2

    maj.com has a pair of Solar Status images you can include on your web pages for real time flare info.

  20. Mega-solar flares during solar maxima by SysKoll · · Score: 2, Informative

    It's interesting to note that these events (the July 13 2000 mega-flare and this one) happened during a solar maximum, i.e., the peak of a 11-year solar cycle.

    There is a nice explanation with graphics here: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/tour.cgi?link= /sun/activity/solar_cycle.html&sw=false&sn=872223& d=/sun/activity

    Note that in spite of documented variations (e.g. the "Maunder Minimum" from 1650 to 1700, where cold climate coincided with very low solar spot counts), solar emissions are assumed to be constant in numerical climate simulation models. Which explains why these simulations are not exactly accurate.

    -- SysKoll
    --

    --
    Mad science! Robots! Underwear! Cute girls! Full comic online! http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/

  21. Re:Empty movie boxes by Amazing+Quantum+Man · · Score: 2

    Ehhh, you mean dis Eludium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator, doc?

    --
    Fascism starts when the efficiency of the government becomes more important than the rights of the people.
  22. Re:The U.S. Response by Amazing+Quantum+Man · · Score: 2

    Too Late, it's already nuked and glowing!

    change of subject:

    I remember back in 1981, at Washington University, the anti-nuke groups were protesting that "any amount of radiation is dangerous". Hence, some friends and I formed a group called SOTS (Stamp Out The Sun). "Stamp Out The Sun... because any amount of radiation is dangerous". Looks like we knew what we were talking about!!!!

    --
    Fascism starts when the efficiency of the government becomes more important than the rights of the people.
  23. End of the World by huckda · · Score: 2

    It's the end of the world as we know it...
    it's the end of the world as we know it...
    and I feel fine...

    Don't fret the little stuff, just smile and nod,
    it will all go away

    --
    "Just Smile and Nod." --Huck
  24. Kill the weatherman! by Webmoth · · Score: 2

    Oh, great.

    Here we've had cloudless nights for the last 5 months, and now that we've got what promises to be the best aurora all year they forecast... RAIN.

    Get outta my storm cloud. Grumble.

    --
    Give me my freedom, and I'll take care of my own security, thank you.
  25. Re:Behind the times by mmontour · · Score: 2

    The largest recorded since we've started measuring these things was an X20 in 1989. Quebec's power system overloaded that year.

    According to this table, the 1989 flare is tied for #1 with one from April of this year (at least, in terms of X-ray intensity). However I don't remember hearing about any significant power or communication disruptions from the April flare.