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Science Fiction into Science Fact?
Selanit asks: "I'm a student of English literature at the University of Colorado, in Boulder, with a pronounced interest in all things tech as well. Next term I'll be taking an Independent Study course which combines the two -- the topic will be 'Influences of Science Fiction on Real-World Tech.' The professor and I are still trying to assemble a reading list. So here's my question: what science-fiction novels have had a particularly noticeable effect on the development of technology? I'm mainly interested in books that have been written since World War II. The line of inquiry is not limited to computers; any kind of link between sci-fi and hard tech will do (e.g. Cap'n Kirk's communicator == prototype mobile phone). Books that have lent a name to a technology are also interesting (like the 'Little-Endian, Big-Endian' terms which were lifted from Gulliver's Travels, or 'Babel Fish' from Douglas Adams)."
From (old) Star Trek and (by reference) Dune equates easily to my cube at work.
http://www.tuxedo.org/~esr/jargon/html/index.html
remote control arms used to work with nuclear and hazardous material. I think it's in a short story though.
Jules Verne, from "20,000 Leagues" to "From the Earth to the Moon".
Mod Karma -1: I sed bad wurds. If I cep my mouf shut, I wud be at riyses.
Jules Verne wrote about nuclear submarines a long time before their invention. Even though this is not your typical "science fiction" book it did have an influence on people.
Seriously. 1984.
I think Sci-Fi has had less to do with bringing about certain technologies (still waiting on my ansible) than it has on coining terms that have been applied to technologies.
For instance, look at Neuromancer. It gave us the term "Cyberspace", which was cool, but then tried to convince us of a guy running around trying to fence one-megabyte ram sticks. Talk about dystopian...
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Bleah! Heh heh heh... BLEAH BLEAH!!! Ha ha ha ha...
Oh, right, that didn't actually happen, did it?
Al Qaeda has ninjas!
Star Trek : The Next Generation Technical Manual
While this book may be the inverse (or reverse?) of what you're looking for, it is extremely interesting, and will surely help you a lot from a research standpoint for your project. It is basically a detailed description of every technical aspect of the ST:TNG universe, which includes many convergences between science fact and science fiction.
Also don't forget to note the name of the first space shuttle ever: The Enterprise.
He predicted the Y2K problem (Ghost from the Grand Banks), and communications satellites (The Fountains of Paradise), and also invented the concept of the space elevator. He didnt invent the AI, but he certainly popularized the concept in film and text (2001 A Space Odyssey). Not to mention a realistic look at the role large corporations would play in space travel (Pan Am flights to the Space Station). I've never read The Deep Range, but it is supposed to be quite visionary as well regarding undersea exploration.
Don't blame me - I voted for Howard Dean. http://dean2004.blogspot.com
Scientists and inventors do not scour literature looking for devices and ideas to turn from fantasy into reality, which means that Sci-Fi has had zero effect upon what gadgets get invented.
More simply, engineers don't sit around waiting for writers to come up with the ideas.
A better thesis would be, "What ideas have been foretold by science fiction writers years before technology made it possible?"
Or, "Since writers tend to take the social aspects of technology under consideration more often than engineers, what novels and authors have correctly identified social and techonological necessities long before engineers invented the device that created the situation?"
From dictionary.com:
Word History: Robot is a word that is both a coinage by an individual person and a borrowing. It has been in English since 1923 when the Czech writer Karel Capek's play R.U.R. was translated into English and presented in London and New York. R.U.R., published in 1921, is an abbreviation of Rossum's
Universal Robots; robot itself comes from Czech robota, "servitude, forced labor," from rab, "slave." The Slavic root behind robota is orb-,
from the Indo-European root *orbh-, referring to separation from one's group or passing out of one sphere of ownership into another. This seems to be the sense that binds together its somewhat
diverse group of derivatives, which includes Greek orphanos, "orphan," Latin orbus, "orphaned," and German Erbe, "inheritance," in addition to the
Slavic word for slave mentioned above. Czech robota is also similar to another German derivative of this root, namely Arbeit, "work" (its Middle High German form arabeit
is even more like the Czech word).
Arbeit may be descended from a word that meant "slave labor," and later generalized to just "labor."
mahlen
If I want your opinion, I'll ask you to fill out the necessary form.
After he wrote Snow Crash, the ultimate cyberpunk novel, Neil Stephenson wrote The Diamond Age. Its key plot device was a book with leaves of paper that were computer controlled and displayed whatever the person wanted to read at the moment. Thus a single volume was the equivalent of the entire internet or library of congress or whatever. This differed from using a laptop computer because his society was "neo-Victorian" and everybody wanted to be seen with books, not computers, as a kind of status thing. The funny thing is that Electric Ink is on the verge of making this a reality and has already got posters up in department stores...
I've been told from a retired Navy man that control rooms on latter-day vessels are based on the Enterprise model, which didn't exist until the show did. Previously, key combat stations (such as the helm and tactical) were not in the same room as the skipper. Note: I have not been able to confirm or deny this story; anybody else want to?
In the original series, whenever one character handed another character computer data, the prop they used was a brightly colored square wafer. IMHO, it looked 3.5" on a side--The microfloppy.
Again, unconfirmed: did the taser descend from the "stun" setting on the phaser? Trek showed just how useful it was to have a less-lethal weapon.
The military uses needle-less pneumatic hypodermic injectors to do mass injections--perhaps lining up a regiment to all get a Tetanus booster or something. How is this related to McCoy's spray hypo? I'm not sure.
Finally, a case of ST influencing technobabble rather than technology itself. Under the Unix operating system, the graphics package (X11) easily allows for one computer to run a program, but for its windows to appear on another machine's display. This is often referred to as "Beaming the app over", based on terminology for the transporter.
--The basis of all love is respect
Don't forget 1984 by Orwell for the depiction of an un-blinking eye of surveillance controlled by the government.
::cough:: carnivore, echelon, face recognition ::cough::
--
Scott Brady
I thought the one clear prediction Star Trek made around e-books was their rejection. Starship captains always made such a big deal about having genuine leather-bound books for their pleasure reading. Sure, e-books are fine as a query interface to a computer system, or as a data capture device. But nobody wants to use them for reading. Thirty years later the e-book makers still don't get it. Just maybe there's more to "reading a book" than the viewing of text on a page-by-page basis?
Here is one translation of the Czech play.
Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
You cannot wash away blood with blood
To all these claims: These are things I heard someplace. I did not research any of these, so don't take these as fact.
It is claimed that the 1929 movie "Woman in the Moon" invented the launch count-down.
Star Trek PADD and today's PDAs. (I believe that the Newton actually has been designed with the show's device in mind.
IIRC, pressurized, needle-free vaccination devices have been designed after watching McCoy doing medical treatment on Trek. After a short web search, one of them appears to be the Gene Gun described here.
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How many scientists, engineers, and researchers were influenced by the books they read as kids? Asimov himself was one, though he ended up doing little research.
How much were the scientists who shot the moon influenced by Verne, Welles, and E. E. Doc Smith? If many of them were inspired by these authors' works, then the novels indeed had an impact and influence on technology.
Many authors directly and indirectly influenced our technosphere. Clarke calculated geosynchronous orbit; most satellites orbit in the belt named after him. Larry Niven's warnings about the effects of organ transplants has changed the way people approach the ethics of taking organs from executed criminals. (Incidently, the "Slashdot effect" is really nothing more than a virtual flash crowd, which Niven predicted as a result of easy teleportation.)
The early works about robots and sentient computers have influenced the direction of research in these fields. AI researchers talk earnestly about the three laws of robotics.
Terraforming was an idea first proposed in science fiction. The US First Contact Protocol is based on science fiction scenerios.
SF influences science and research because scientists tend to read science fiction. If that doesn't color our ideas of the world (which in turn influences our research), then our imagination has died.
Microsoft is to software what Budweiser is to beer.
And no, I'm not out trolling today.
The micro-sized cell phones today are an evolution. The first wave came from the idea of merging a phone with a radio, which would allow you to not have to run wires everywhere.
After that, the radio phones were made more portable. Then they were made small enough to carry around in cars. Then small enough to lug around occasionally (check out Danny Glover's cell phone in the first 'Lethal Weapon' movie). Then as small as normal radios. Then smaller.
Science Fiction gets to ignore all the problems and history of actually getting to the point in history where someone can use the gadget -- and Science Fiction has the option of ignoring reality -- which is something Engineers would love to be able to do (it'd make life sooo much easier). Sci-Fi ignores all the hard-won science and discovery that must occur before a magic device is even possible. Scientific discovery is evolutionary -- it builds heavily upon the work of all those previous, and can not exist without everything that came before it.
What we must seperate is the influence SciFi has upon an individual's decision to enter a field. The young engineer (proto-engineer?) finds that SciFi appeals to them, and that engineering sounds cool, and decides to pursue engineering. In that respect, SciFi influences the career choice of the engineer.
However, no engineer goes through college for the express purpose of making real an invention they read in a book when they were 14 years old.
The author, who needs a plot device, gets to ignore enough reality to make the device just plausible enough (to most people) to continue the story forward. To the engineers and researchers familiar with the subject matter, they can list for you reason after reason why it's impossible, or why it won't work.
A snippet from a BBC News article, May 11 2000:
Science fiction powers space research
The European Space Agency (Esa) is studying science fiction for ideas and technologies that could be used in future missions.
A panel of readers is currently combing sci-fi novels and short stories published in the early decades of the last century to see if technology has caught up with ideas that were futuristic when first put into print.
Any good ideas turned up in the search will be assessed by scientists to see if they can help the agency in its ongoing mission to explore space.
Knowledgeable fans of science fiction are also being encouraged to send in suggestions to help Esa spot sources of good ideas.
(Follow link above for rest of article, interesting.)
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Predited many of todays technologies including the walkman, and real-time media. The book is particularly interesting because it correctly predicts the effects these technolgies would have on society. e.g. example walkmans have increased our social isolation.
-ShieldWolf
just = (My)Opinion.toCents();
If you're looking for good science fiction reading, check out the product literature that accompanied the launch of Microsoft's Windows 95. In it, there were descriptions of a MS computer operating system that was reliable, fast, and easy.
These bold and exotic claims were so influential, consumers actually started to want a reliable and fast OS from the company, and today, 5 years later, they are starting to produce such an operating system. It still amazes me how fiction can someday turn into fact.
The Internet is generally stupid
http://www.globalideasbank.org/BOV/BV-393.HTML
The biggest problem about getting science fiction applied in what is laughingly called 'the real world' is the old Catch-22. It is best exemplified by Arthur C. Clarke's explanation of why he is not rather better off than he actually is. When he first had the idea of the communications satellite, he tried to get it patented. 'Come, come, Mr Clarke,' said the people at the Patent Office. 'We're a serious outfit, we haven't got time to waste on fantastic ideas like this.' Years later, when the first satellite (with which Arthur was actively involved) actually went up, and the nations were queuing to get their own satellites up, Arthur went back to the Patent Office. 'But, Mr Clarke,' they said, 'the satellite already exists. You should have come to us earlier.'
Typical Bureaucratic bungling.
and there is more:
The very first paper describing the very first constellation, consisting of three satellites in geostationary orbit. Allegedly the only accurate science-fiction prediction ever. Authored by the famous Arthur C. Clarke, before the space race, before Sputnik 1, and before Arthur C. Clarke became a famous author. (There's a mirror of the paper. And now we call it the Clarke orbit, and you can simulate the original proposal.
This Page also discusses the legal issues because at the time Clarke wrote his paper, there was no way to get a satellite into orbit to begin with.
"It is a greater offense to steal men's labor, than their clothes"
Neuromancer had the first use many now-cutting edge techs. Reading it now, it sounds _so_ incredibly cliched... until you remember that they weren't cliches until after this book was written.
Those who fail to understand communication protocols, are doomed to repeat them over port 80.
If you don't mind a bit of controversy, to put it mildly, you should include dianetics/Scientology.
Were Lafayette Ron Howard and Analog's Editor (Joseph?) Campbell pulling everyone's legs with a fake science and fake religion? Was it just a tax scam? Or was it a legitimate effort that went horribly wrong?
This isn't just an idle question - Scientologists have shut down web sites, even seized computer hardware and essentially destroyed it while the Federal courts did nothing, because they published religious "trade secrets" about the evil god Unix. I mean Xinu. I mean Xenu. (Hmm, makes you think....) They have flooded newsgroups with bogus posts to make it hard to find the on-topic posts. They have bought the top 40-odd places on search engines that provide "sponsored links," to make it hard for the casual browser to find critical sites. They have created "safe harbor" web browsers that protect their members from "objectionable" material.
You don't have to agree with my opinion of Scientologists to see how they're linked to many of the most controversial issues facing us on the 'net. And it all started with a science fiction writer and a magazine editor discussing psychology based on "science," not Freud.
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. -- H L Mencken
The holodeck color scheme used on the "Enterprise" (black with yellow lines) is used by Nasa as the background for vector mapping when information is not known or to convey the axes. The engineers specifically requested it.
Its a small, but notable influence.
Mod me down and I will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine!
Neuromancer was definitely his crowning achievement, and tech lingo will forever be indebted to him.
However, one of his short stories you might find really fascinating, in that he illustrates the opposite of what you are asking. In his collection of short stories Burning Chrome he has a story named "The Gernsback Continuum" where he describes visions of the future that never quite came to pass... but what if they did? Things like flying cars from the 50's and huge single airwings with 100's of propellers. Think about 20's gothic architecture and those early visions of going to the moon. It would be a nice counterpoint in your work to what were "probable" visions of the future versus what was in the imagined future.
Burning Chrome is also a good basis, because little works like "Johnny Mnemonic" and "Fragments of a Hologram Rose" show him developing the ideas that later became the astounding Neuromancer.
TurtleBlue
ps - 62-36, nice - I was there.
I would say that Isaac Asimov's "robot" series of books probably had the biggest effect on both fiction AND science. Although the robots in existance today are nothing like the robots in his novels, the inspiration and the name "robot" came from him. Asimov's robots were a lot like Star Trek's character Data. They looked human, had positronic brains (dreamed up by Asimov, of course), and could think and act on their own. Most of our robots today are nothing like that. They are controlled by computers, which are programmed by humans. Robots are designed for specific purposes and carry out only that purpose. For example, a six axis robotic arm might be installed in an automotive assembly line and programmed to perform the same exact action thousands, tens of thousands (or even vastly more) times. The idea, however, stems from Asimov's dream of machines that could perform actions for humans.
Another great writer, Jules Verne, wrote science fiction novels that eventually became science fact. From the submarine in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, to the rocket in From the Earth to the Moon, to the trip Around the World in 80 Days, Jules Verne came up with some truly incredible ideas that soon became very credible indeed.
There are many others. I'm too busy to list them all, or I'd take the same kind of course. OH WELL
But, I'll stick (stubbornly) by my original comments. The author thinks of what technology can do, and the engineer thinks of what to do with technology. A bit circular, and I'm feeling chatty....
The author throws the rules out the window, and does some What-If-ing.
The engineer, trained and bound by rules, but reporting to the demands of the Manager (who has read too much SciFi, and thus believes nothing is impossible), tries to find what technology can perform the task.
More simply, the author goes from task backward to technology, and the engineer goes from technology forward to task. In your post, they have the techology, and want to know what else to do with it. They are not trying to make SciFi come true. (am I nitpicking, here?)
I do think we need more dreamer-engineers, but the cirriculum and managers tend to conspire and weed them out.
He *invented* waldoes. They are called that after Waldo, the main character in the story and the title of the story as well. Not exactly a prediction. And before anyone else says it, the same goes for waterbeds. Invented, not predicted (in Stranger). Also the "generation ship".
However, I think it would be fair to say RAH predicted the Internet (he wasn't the only one and maybe not even the first, but so what). Check out the "public terminals" that have access to everything from lectures on science to live orchestral performances. These are throughout the "Future History" books, but especially so in Friday. It is interesting to note that revenue method Heinlein envisioned for this as well.
Of course he may have predicted several things that have yet to come to pass. For instance, in Harsh Mistress he mentions (actually the plot hinges on this) warfare between the Moon and Earth as well as induction ring launches from both locations.
324006
I'm a big Neuromancer, Gibson, Stephenson etc. fan, but I think your statement is way too strong. Neuromancer might have provided a social context for some subcultures, as you suggest, but I fail to see how, say, Linux wouldn't have existed without Neuromancer.
In general, I think authors are often given too much credit for both "predicting" and inventing things in their work. The canonical example is Clarke's communication satellites. That may very well have been a real invention, which he might even have patented. Most work in books, though, is nowhere near as original as that. What the best speculative authors mostly do amount to thought experiments which integrate and extrapolate from current trends. In some cases, such as Neuromancer, this is done well enough that the result ends up with strong echoes of something that subsequently happens. This doesn't mean that Neuromancer caused those things. It can mean that it influenced the way many people thought about them, though.
They are little more than lab curiosities, with no practical applications. The late 1980's gave us Cold Fusion, and the late 1990's gave us Bucky Balls and Nano-tubes. What will change the world, (and NOT for the better is the continual meddling in cloning and human genetics. The moral, ethical, legal, environmental, and biological problems are not being addressed by those who are doing the research. We are behaving like children with shiny, dangerous toys. One thing many Science Fiction writers have done over the years is examine these things, as they relate to technology.
George Lucas's first film, "THX-1138", introduced the concept of phone tech support based on obnoxious recorded messages. That was a very insightful film. Lucas later abandoned insight for popularity and became successful.
The first commerically successful "cyberspace" novel was "Neuromancer," by William Gibson. There are two worlds in Neuromancer: the corporeal world, run by corporations, and the cyberworld, which one "Jacks in" to via a computer hookup. IN cyberspace, data passes freely, but a lot work goes into protecting data from hackers. The protagonist is a hacker how specializes in stealing data. Sound familiar?
Gibson was so spot on that several commercial products use names from the book, eg BlackICE.
If you can find it, there is this great interview with William Gibson in which he discussed watching two kids playing pong (the original commercial video game, back in the 70s). Gibson realized that, for the players, the world behind the screen was just a real as a tennis court is to a tennis player. So Gibson pursued this "world behind the screen" metaphor and produced a striking, immersive world based an ubiquitous computers communicated via a world-wide standard network. This vision drove a lot of researchers, and still does. Many of us crave the fully, head mounted, immersive 3-D displays used in the book. But I'll take a pass on the Texas Catheter.
"one treats others with courtesy not because they are gentlemen or gentlewomen, but because you are" --G. Henrichs
Gene having been in the military (Navy I believe) drew alot from his
knowledge of it as well as making many contacts for obtaining more and
ongoing information.
It is more likely that Roddenberry (sp?) created fiction based upon fact
and genuine science theory than the other way around. Though at some point
there is bound to be the creative license use.
One such example of technology existing prior to use in the show is what
many would recognize as the newer type of communicators, the combadges.
As it turns out, the technology these combadges are based on has existed
since before the original Star Trek show. That technology is what you can
do a google search on "neurophone".
And having been one who got a chance to play around with a prototype, I
can say that it does in fact work and what you read about it being better
for the high end of the hearing range is correct.
But this doesn't much support the imagination to reality direction, for
Roddenberry wanted to make his show as realistice in information as he
could and often would bug NASA for technical info (and they were glad to
help because in turn the show helped gain public interest in the space
program) while incorporating current social issues into the plot of each
show.
However, there were a few shows that Roddenberry did in fact write the
plot around the concepts of moving imagination into reality. In fact "Q"
was such a character capable of such power.
The reality is that there is a truth to it. In the process of creating
anything, we must first be able to imagine it. Take the general picture
and begin filling in the details. Really not so unlike the process of
creating software.
There is even an identified formula for it:
T1 (I + E) = v T2 (k)
T1 = non-mystical thought, T2 = things in physical reality,
k = the active constant, I = degree of Intent, E = degree of Effort,
v = velocity of conversion
A formula that like any math equation, makes two statements.
Here it is: All things in physical reality can be comprehended and
all things that can be comprehended in non-mystical thought can be
created.
But it really does all begin with imagination and the application of consciousness (see concepts)
.
It's worth pointing out that Clarke's original concept involved three enormous manned space-stations in geostationary orbit, not the relatively small solid-state devices we have now. Really, Clarke's idea came down to a lot of foresight and some clever geometry. He solved a problem that nobody had even though to consider at the time.
All I can say is a) Clarke's a very clever guy who deserves an enormous amount of credit for his inventiveness, and b) thank god he wasn't able to patent that idea. As clever as he was for being the first one to have it, let's face it... If you need to send a signal over the horizon, it's not going to take long for you to hit upon the idea of geosync sattelites (assuming you have the resources to put them up.)
I can't precisely say that the solution is "obvious", but I do think a lot of communications companies would have found themselves unnecessarily shelling out to Clarke, regardless of his actual contribution to their efforts.
Some folks here have actually attempted to answer the original question, like the guy who suggested the Navy adopted the use of key tactical stations in the same vein as the Enterprise. Others, however, seem to confuse the mere mention of some "futuristic" concept as "having an effect" on the realization of the concept.
I've read Verne, and I find it hard to believe his ideas (futuristic as they were) had any influence on modern nuclear technology. I think Selanit has taken on a formidable task: How does one prove a cause-effect relationship between sci-fi and reality? I've seen little evidence here I would consider "proof" in this regard.
Maybe Selanit would be so kind as to publish a link of his/her work on
"How do you land the ship?"
"Umm... you don't have to. We can kinda land the people. Hell, send 'em wherever we want them to go."
"'K."
Of course this led to the amazing coincidence that ~50% of all planets have weird fields/mineral deposits/alien entities with the effect of completely neutralizing transporter technologies.
I was suddenly picked up on this in Enterprise; I don't know why I hadn't seen it before. The transporter was an ad hoc solution to a design flaw that worked so well that they had to scramble for new deus ex machina transporter difficulties in every other episode.
By now, it's almost canonical:
1. Enterprise picks up a subspace distress call.
2. Away team beams down.
3. Red shirts die, Captain kisses girl.
4. Transporter trouble prevents timely rescue of crew.
5. Engineer modifies the main deflector to emit a tachyon pulse, solving the problem. He does this in 1/4 the amount of time expected.
6. One week later, the crew of the Enterprise has forgotten the whole incident, but may make side remarks about events (shore leave, &c.) that did not occur in any episode.
Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.
Thanks for a great response to my question! I've read many of the comments already, and liked a lot of the suggestions.
The reading list is not likely to include Neuromancer. Why? Because I read that one this term in a different course, with the same professor. We've already decided not to allow any overlap on the reading lists between the two courses. We are likely to be reading some early Heinlein, possibly Waldo Inc. Many people have suggested reading Jules Verne, and that is certainly a possibility; I was hoping to do more twentieth century stuff, but we'll certainly consider starting with some older material.
Tonight (or possibly tomorrow night) I will read each and every post which has been submitted (even the -1 posts). I may contact some of you via email for further discussion on some of the more interesting points raised.
Thanks again for all the terrific comments!
A common thread in most recent future fiction is the idea of monolithic governments slowly becoming irrelevent to our lives. They are replaced in importance by communities or tribes that reflect the lifestyle choices of its members. These tribes are sometimes megacorporations which are an extended family to their employees, providing everything they need to live productive lives. Sometimes they are special interest groups such as religions, philosophies, pop culture groups, hacker clans, etc.
For years I've felt like this was slowly becoming true. I think Card's vision of a future Democracy powered by highly sophisticated online discussion groups is the most likely form of government that would rise to manage such tribes.
Take the society described in Sterling's "Distraction" and add the tribal ideas in Stephenson's "Diamond Age" and then the government from Card's "Ender's Game". I think together that is an excellent picture of what the western world will look like 20 years from now. Read Copland's "Microserfs" to see a good current example... or just realize how powerful Slashdot is in organizing (un)productive energy in the young tech community.
Also, I recommend that you seek out authors who genuinely come from scientific backgrounds or clearly take these subjects very seriously. David Brin, Vernor Vinge, Bruce Sterling are brilliant people who spend a lot of time thinking about these ideas.
Others (Gibson) are more interested in the pop culture metaphorical aspects and are in my opinion highly overrated. Gibson did not in any way "invent" virtual reality. Famously he refused to use e-mail for years. Not long ago he wrote for Wired about finally discovering the appeal of the Internet when he began shopping for antique watches on eBay. Whatever.
If you're interested in good idea sci-fi from the last few decades, find the authors who helped build The Well, or were writing stories inspired by the precursors to the Usenet in the 70s.
Secondly, I believe that your choice of Star Trek's communicator isn't actually a good example.
Specially because there is a much better model of mobile phone from the previous year (1965): Agent 86 and his shoe-phone.
One could ask the inverse question: what technology was most unpredicted by scifi writers? The I would vote for the personal computer. Until the early 1970s, computers seemed to be going the direction of becoming larger and more central. We had stories about wayward supercomputers like the Forbin Project, 2001 HAL, and the story that spawned the Terminator movies ("I have no mouth and I must scream!") The idea that everyone would own a computer, or hundred or more hidden in cars and appliances, seemed outlandish when they cost a hundred years' salary or more. And whole new segments of human culture- computer stores, software writing companies, games, geekdom, etc.
If anyone came close to predicting this, it may have been Asimov. I recall a short story (in Nine Tomorrows?) about a society entirely dependent on PDA devices. When a savant comes along who can do arithmetic in his head, then that society goes into chaos.
Another close Asimov prediction are his robot plantations where armies of robots do all kinds of labor. In some sense the all of embedded CPUs are like this army.
Orson Scott Card in Ender's Game describes (in 1977) a very realistic laptop computer/PDA with a touchscreen and wireless network. Ender enjoys instant messaging and email with his friends, and plays a 3D-animated RPG similar to EverQuest on the machine.
Ray Bradybury's short story, "The Veldt," is about parents who worry that their children are spending too much time in a holodeck-style entertainment room. (OK, the holodeck is still science fiction, but Bradbury aptly defines the anti-videogames suburban hysteria that crops up in the media from time to time.)
His 1953 novel _Fahrenheit 451_ features interactive talk shows and soap operas, projected on wall-sized TV screens. It describe the protagonist's wife obsessing about upgrading her equipment (buying an attachment that will make it look like characters in the TV shows are speaking her name, thus including her in the experience). He also predicted O.J.-style helocopter chases. From a Salon interview with Bradbury:
The day after news helicopters pursued O.J. Simpson fleeing in a Ford Bronco, a New York Times columnist noted that the chase was the "real-life fulfillment" of "Fahrenheit 451."
I'm saving the best for last...
E.M. Forster's "The Machine Stops" describes a future civilization in which all but the lowest classes associate with each other chiefly via long-distance communications devices, rather than in person. In this passage, a woman has just spent three minutes disconnected from the network in order to speak privately to her son. She logs back on (so to speak), and is assaulted by a flood of incoming messages.
To most of these questions she replied with irritation - a growing quality in that accelerated age. She said that the new food was horrible. That she could not visit the public nurseries through press of engagements. That she had no ideas of her own but had just been told one-that four stars and three in the middle were like a man: she doubted there was much in it. Then she switched off her correspondents, for it was time to deliver her lecture on Australian music.
The clumsy system of public gatherings had been long since abandoned; neither Vashti nor her audience stirred from their rooms. Seated in her armchair she spoke, while they in their armchairs heard her, fairly well, and saw her, fairly well. She opened with a humorous account of music in the pre Mongolian epoch, and went on to describe the great outburst of song that followed the Chinese conquest. Remote and primæval as were the methods of I-San-So and the Brisbane school, she yet felt (she said) that study of them might repay the musicians of today: they had freshness; they had, above all, ideas. Her lecture, which lasted ten minutes, was well received, and at its conclusion she and many of her audience listened to a lecture on the sea; there were ideas to be got from the sea; the speaker had donned a respirator and visited it lately. Then she fed, talked to many friends, had a bath, talked again, and summoned her bed.
Bear in mind, Forster was writing in 1909! Here's one online copy of the text:
http://brighton.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~prajlich/forster.h
Literacy Weblog http://jerz.setonhill.edu/weblog
E.g., if you were writing a story in 1870, descrbing how everyone would be driving around in cars in the future is amusing, but not important. How the automobile will change society by giving people a much greater range of movement is what is important.
I'd say the biggest influence of SF on future technology has been inspirational. A lot of people involved in the space program in the 60's and 70's got hooked by reading SF, especially Heinlein's works, for example.
The web site www.Everything2.com seems just like how Douglas Adams described the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: full of information about everything, but often silly and informal.
Under the patent laws of the day, he would have had 17 years. Not very renewable.
1945 + 17 = 1962.
Note, the first geosynchronous satellite was launched in 1964
The patent would have likely run out anyhow.
"It is a greater offense to steal men's labor, than their clothes"
There are tons of paper cover the exact topic you are exploring. A Comparative literature professor is an expert in the field and has managed to build the largest scholastic collection of science fiction. In 1997, the second closest collection had half the number of books.
Everyone seems to be mentioning the big names, but there are a lot of smaller authors who influenced the science fiction genre. There are a lot of science fiction experts in the Comparative Literature field, so consider looking there for really specific information with citations. I won't bother trying to remember the essays I've read in those topics. The material is numerous and the field of study is about 20 years old.