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The Internet Shifts East
Logic Bomb writes: "The San Francisco Chronicle has an article discussing the World Intellectual Property Organization's prediction that in less than 10 years, Chinese will be the most widely-used language on the web. Assuming the Internet becomes a truly global entity, this is an obvious (and mathematically correct) conclusion. On the other hand, the implementation of the Internet in places without certain civil liberties provides an interesting challenge to typical Western (idealist) notions about what the Internet does for society. Would you even consider the average wealthy Chinese citizen with online access truly 'on the Internet'? And how is the Internet supposed to draw people together when the same old language barrier still exists?"
Since when CNN is a news site ? I see similarities between Chinese people who read the People's Daily and westerners who watch CNN.
While the content produced will increasingly come in many different languages as we move forward over the next few years, I still see little movement on the actual programming front.
.. which ends up meaning that he/she also must understand English, thereby limiting the scope of the Web to those who at least have a passing knowledge of English.
Today, 99% of all programming is still done in English which ends up giving a definite bias towards English as the language of the web.
If someone comes out with some programming language that can be programmed in local languages and which gets popular, that is when I see a real shift happening in the base of the web. Otherwise, the content producer still ends up embedding their original language content inside English HTML
The latest UN statistics show China's per-capita income at $798 USD.
Does that sort of income enable the purchase of a computer, or the recurring costs of a phone line and ISP?
If it does, then what are the Internet applications driving this incredible influx of mandarin/cantonese users? Without the huge economic/retail motive that drove American adoption, it's hard to see the huge growth in users and services. And, obviously, there is absolutely no way this will happen by 2007, as it says in the article.
The idea that Chinese will be the predominant language on the web is absurd.
China, despite recent moves towards a more open, capitalist society, has a problem that wont go away. Saw an interesting program on PBS a few months ago that discussed how China has changed in the past 50 years. Basically, you have a situation these days where the gap between the upper class and lower class is insanely wide. The wealthier segment of the population can often afford computers, internet access and the like, but this wealthier portion only makes up a tiny, tiny fraction of China's population. Meanwhile, the bulk of China's population are subsistance farmers who aren't allowed to even BE in (let alone conduct business in) China's main citiies. In most of these rural areas, electric power and indoor plumbing are considered high tech luxuries. Infact, China's national telecom infrastructure is considerably less extensive than most states in the U.S.
China's on the move, yes, but they have a looooooooooooong long way to go before their influence on the Internet becomes anywhere near as large as Europe's or America's influence.
Cheers,
Bowie J. Poag
From: gascan@dcst16.pt (Bill Gascoyne)
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: The dangers of extrapolation (was Re: Speed of Light
A cautionary thought on the dangers of extrapolation.
It is reported that in 1977 there were 37 Elvis impersonators in the world.
In 1993 there were 48,000. At this rate, by the year 2010 one out of every
three people in the world will be an Elvis impersonator.
:-)