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10 Linux Predictions For 2002
Weedstock writes: "In an article on LinuxWorld, Joe Barr is once again making 10 predictions about the success of Linux for the new year." The first of many sets of predictions for 2002, no doubt. And some guy named "Robin" or "Roblimo" or something like that wrote about Linux in 2003 for Newsforge.
As far as I can tell, item #4 has nothing to do with Linux directly. Unless of course you believe it's a matter of MS vs. Linux and that's it.
Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?
I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
I'm surprised he didn't predict that Linus Torvalds would be elected head of the UN, and linux would be installed ona satellite thus rendering us the ability to communicate to alien species.
I doubt that the CIA/FBI/NSA even uses windows XP for any sort of confidential information. Most like they're still running the nearly bug free Windows NT, or some incarnation of unix.
A rabbit in the hand is worth 4 in the cage
1. Tux will fly
To this day flightless like other penguins, Linux mascot Tux will shake the world by flying into the Eiffel Tower, prompting a renewal of the 'war on terrorism'.
2. Slashdot will be free of trolls
CmdrTaco will utter the regexp to end all regexps, and the lameness filter will finally work. Forever.
3. RMS installs Windows
RMS, leader of the Free World, will renounce GNU purity and follow the temptations of Microsoft by installing Windows 2.0. From the horses mouth: "Freeware like GNU just doesn't cut it when stacked up against real software made by real programmers with fat wallets. It's a moral choice really - the corporations deserve our dollars. Freedom shmeedom."
4. There is no prediction 4.
Yours Sincerely, Michael.
Computers will become faster!
And will have more RAM!
Linux will continue to develop!
etc... What would we do without this sage guidance?
sic transit gloria mundi
I really don't think that Microsoft discontinuing support for old versions of Windows will make anyone switch to Linux.
When was the last time you called up MS for tech support for Windows? Most people just don't care, or are even aware MS will provide any tech support at all.
I don't anticipate a large exodus to Linux when MS stops providing support. There's no reason at all to think that people will move to and learn a new *operating system* that doesn't provide them anything new over Windows 98 with no official support.
Everyone has been predicting that Linux will explode any minute now for *years*. This won't make it happen any sooner. Fact is, Linux doesn't provide anything over Windows for the vast majority of people, and MS has massive marketing muscle. Linux isn't poised to overcome that at all. Linux will need a ton of marketing money, and do something WINDOWS DOESN'T.
As much as people make fun of MS never innovating anything, everything I see in Linux development is meant to bring its functionality in line with Windows. If I see anything in Linux that enables me to do more than Windows, and do it with more stability (sorry, in my experience, Linux with X gives a much more unstable environment than 2k or XP), I'll give it another try.
For the moment, for me, it's XP on me desktop, 2k on my laptop, and OpenBSD on my server.
This should be under "It's funny. Laugh", not "Linux Business".
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Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace...
Yeah, right. TheRegister might think Mandrake is easier than Windows XP to install, but actually running even this the most simplified of Linuxes is still beyond the average joe sixpack user. This is the only thing really keeping Linux from desktops at the moment - well, that and hardware/software compatibility - but I don't think it's going away any time soon.
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided
If both sides agree on it, why would the judge toss it out? As for the hold-out states, more of them will drop off once the settlement goes through and the ones that remain will be stuck with Microsoft for another year or so, eventually having a very limited impact.
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely
This is just hilarious. Firstly, I doubt that any "three-letter intelligence agency" (there aren't that many) are running XP at this point, or are planning to start doing so. If they're running Windows at all, they'll be on 2000, which is getting pretty secure now that it's been out for a while.
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms
This is quite likely, actually; as Linux becomes more usable and more well-known to big businesses looking to save money/improve security, some companies will undoubably decide to move. Others will decide that Linux/Mac/whatever they were on before wasn't right for them, and switch to Linux. Stuff like that happens all the time. I am thinking Joe was running low on ideas at this point
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux
Yeah, sure. And Tux the Penguin will be replaced by Joe the Wannabe Journalist.
(I don't have a sig)
Quality, performance, value; you get only two, and you don't always get to pick.
This is almost the same article I read in 1995! Back then, I was involved in a newsgroup discussion on usability for Linux on the desktop. Most of the predictions, and complaints from back in the day are still there. Sure, there has been polish added, and some really cool features. The kernel has added lots of new features, but the only interface I have seen that came close to a real desktop has been on a freaking Mac (and I HATE macs). At some point in the future, a group will get together and put together an opensource desktop that my wife could use, and be happy with. After 6 and a half years, I won't hold my breath. Don't get me wrong, I'm already running the 2.4.17 kernel on my Thinkpad. I just wonder if predictions like "Linux desktop will appear in public places" are realistic when it is really an OS for nerds, and will continue to stay that way until a real organized effort takes place to bring about a simple desktop.
Flame answer 1: Yes, Gnome and KDE are great, but they are great for geeks, not moms. Maybe end the political crap and have them get together for a cookout at my house to bury the hatchet and take the best code from both to make KDGnome? That would kick some ass!
Flame answer 2: Because Macs are great for destop publishing, but that is not what I need to do. (and yes, I know it's BSD, and not Linux)
Flame answer 3: Sorry Linus. You have done great things here, and I have great admiration for your work. I know you are not competing with MS here. I would just like to see Linux knock the head off of Bill's empire. It get's predicted every year.
Flame answer 4: I know, I know, I have all the source code. I should write it myself, right? Well I suck at programming C, and I am man enough to admit that I could not write production level code for a project like that.
Spackler
SlashPh3ar +1 Insightful! bojoH4X0R +1 Funny! eliteboss +1 Informative!
"Though it's hard to beat Visual Studio for rapid application development."
l33t0r -1 Troll! bsdnut -1 Flamebait! bojoH4X0R_2 -1 Overrated!
"Except that it constrains you with heavy licensing for the end user."
h4ckerrocket +1 baaaaah! linuxd3wd +1 InMyLittleWorld!
"Which probably doesn't matter, since 90%+ of your customers already have Windows installed."
supercod-R -1 NotMyBag! CmdrTac0 -1 Heretic! superHaK -1 Blasphemy! C0deG0d -1 KarmaTorch!
Sorry about that. Sit on my hands, no more rum before posting.
Back in 1997 running Samba, I didn't find any problem with 'seamless integration' for my two Windows game (mostly) machines to use the Linux box as server, or for the Linux box to work perfectly well along side of the other two as a peer machine.
If I may elaborate on your point, I think you mean "seamless MS-Office integration."
It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm. Elm doesn't read Netscape Mail folders (ok, maybe it does for someone who wants to take the time, but we're talking seamless here), that doesn't stop someone from using elm to "seamlessly" talk with someone in the same office using Netscape Mail.
MS-Office is a monolithic group-ware package that works (well? at all?) only with itself. As such, there never can be "seamless integration" because Microsoft doesn't want there to be.
Microsoft has won the perception battle with MS-Office. Many managers think that in order to be compatable with anyone else, they must use MS-Office, and that only runs on MS-Win.
If "we" are going to open the desktop market, "we" must change that perception. I am very, very glad to see OpenOffice, KDE-Office, and all the other suites being built. The Noosphere is being homesteaded at the office application layer, and I couldn't be happier.
BTW, my last two jobs have been in shops where the one and only reason they use MS-Win is because they are entrenched into using MS-Office.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
Similarly, a surprising number of online banking services, auction houses, etc are putting Windows-centric code on their sites, limiting site usability for many potential customers.
I'm looking forward to seeing if there's going to be a backlash against that in the coming year. When sites realize that a good chunk of users are being cut off, could we see "platform agnostic" and "Linux-friendly" become marketable buzzwords, causing sites to leap on the bandwagon and to start performing real Linux usability testing?
And if "Linux-friendly" logos, icons and similar start to appear on sites, could the alternative operating systems enjoy even more visibility as a result?
I say...
1. Business as usual. Linux will continue slowly replace Unix servers. Windows will continue to sit on the desktop. Talk of a mainstream linux desktop will continue for several more years.
1. More samba shares on the local networks at work as Comm Tech managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.
/. bandwidth bills is to replace all content with one great big banner add on /. .... and when that does not work they will be bought out by x10.com -- and www.slashdot.org will resolve to 10 popup windows for mini cams.
2. More IIS web servers replaced with Linux and apache as Web Group managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.
3. More Tomcat implementations as said managers save money on the Weblogic license dollars.
4. More failed companies who think they can "cash in" on this Linux thing....
5. The people that started in the garages and basements....(went to work for a few months at various linux startups and got bitter when the stock dipped below a dollar...and they got layed off...) --> will return to the garages and basements...God bless them.
6, VA decides that the only way to pay the
7. The end of world peace.
(+1 Funny) only if I laugh out loud.
My wife now finds it easier to use my Linux box to:
-check web mail
-read and print doc/xls files
-surf w/o crashing browser
-use dial-up
-other business stuff.
...rather than boot up her NT box to do the same.
Now with software we use (Moz/StarOffice/KDE) being so nice, stable, & useful, the desktop is at last becoming a viable alternative for Windoze users--with just a little prompting.
To me, the interoperability with Word/Excel/Exchange is the critical thing for businesses. In 2000, this clearly did not work well at all. I think 2002 will indeed herald the year that linux will be occationally adopted as an alternative in corporate environments. Reading/printing these file formats (and protocols) is now *finally* reliable. Ximian's Exchange connector completes it for most businesses.
I don't think that the desktop not being adopted in large numbers this year was because IT managers didn't want to do it, it was because they couldn't do it.
Now they can.
Joe Barr did a similar article for 2001. Here's how he did:
1. Linux Kernel 2.4 will be released, and will trounce Windows in the benchmarks
Half right. 2.4.0 was released, performance was good, but not as good as it could have been. It's gotten better since. Nobody that I know of has done comprehensive benchmarking. I'll give this one a half point.
2. MS Findings of Law overturned, Findings of Fact stand. Ordered back to lower court. DOJ loses zeal for case
Almost perfect. The Conclusions of Law stood, but the Final Judgement was overturned. Everything else was on the nose. I'll give this one a full point.
3. Consolidation and attrition of Linux companies. Fewer distributions. RedHat & VA merge. SuSE & Atipa merge.
Didn't happen. There were some mergers, but no big ones. There was much attrition, but primarily on the fringes of the Linux world, the rest of the computer industry was much harder hit attrition-wise. There are more distributions than ever. There are no superdistributions, in fact, I'd say more people realize today that RedHat != Linux than a year ago. No points.
4. KDE and GNOME continue as separate projects.
Easy point.
5. Linus stops heavy kernel hacking, focuses on community leadership.
You've got to be joking. No points.
6. One of the big five computer retailers offers a Linux boot (or dual boot) for a retail desktop machine.
Nope, didn't happen.
7. Widespread government desktop adoption of Linux
Nope, didn't happen. More servers tho.
8. Bruce Perens shakes up HP.
If it happened, it was completely behind the scenes. From out here, it looks like Compaq's pleading to be eaten had much more effect on HP's management than Bruce did. He has had some effect, and he's still there, so there's always next year. No point.
9. Linux stocks will thrive.
Ha. Hahahaha. Hahahahahaha. Seriously, they didn't do badly compared to the rest of the tech stocks, but I would hardly call it "thriving". No point.
10. Another great year for Linux
Easy point.
So, last year, he got three and a half out of ten. One was a complete giveaway (#10), and most people would say #4 was a giveaway too. Not the most impressive set of predictions.
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Open mind, insert foot.
1 and 6 maybe mulligans, but I'd call 8 more of a "gimme" ...
I've seen screenshots of an official (and not even alpha quality) official AOL client for Linux.
Given AOHell's recent decision to join the Liberty Alliance, could it be that AOL's partnership with Sun (as in Sun is the center of the Netscape iPlanet world now) has addicted AOL-TW to the need for open standards???
utter rubbish
As for Linux on the desktop, I have to remain skeptical of its success. If MacOS X never came about, I'd say their are definite possibilities, but now there is just too much going on besides Linux. Here are reasons why Linux is not going to succeed on the desktop anytime soon:
- Software companies are currently devoting a good chunk of resources towards updating their applications for XP, and also exploring possibilities of using new XP "features".
- .NET will also consume more software company resources that could possibly be focused towards Linux desktop software.
- Apple is going to be releasing faster, more appealing hardware along with an improving OS X. Software companies are going to get distracted into doing new Mac versions of their applications.
- A high-end multimedia explosion is about to hit the computer industry. Over the past several years, multimedia has been a joke in my opinion, but now hardware and software is actually capable of doing some useful and cool stuff. When I read about wireless IEEE-1284 (Firewire), see new media features come out like DVD-RW+, and video software that does a million things in a simple package, I don't even begin to think about Linux. Sorry.
If Linux was where it is now, two years ago, I'd say it had a good chance. Now the future is looking even more bleak. I don't like saying that, but it's the current reality. A bronze medal is still not that bad though, when you think about it...Got friends?
Well that's a bit of a stretch. "Dependendts", "Slaves" or "Prisoners" would be better descriptions, IMO.
They will betray and leave Microsoft the first time they get the chance.
After all, like it or not, MS brought PCs into the realm of usability for the average idiot.
Like it or not, but this is plain wrong.
It was asian-hardware makers which brought PCs into the price range suitable for the average person. Remember DOS? Remember high-memory? Remember IRQ/DMA problems?
Usability is secondary and always was. Otherwise the awkard DOS could have never had any chance against MacOS.
Do you really think Dell would be pulling in almost $32 BILLION dollars if we were still using Dr Dos?
Now, let's get clear about something: Microsoft always trailed the computing industry. Windows was late - very late. All other computers (Amiga, Apple and most Unix) had GUIs much earlier than Microsoft.
Yet, everybody pretends as if without Microsoft there would be no GUI. Without Microsoft, the computing industry would be a couple of years farther ahead than it is now.
Welcome to the joys of market share. MS and the "OS-community" are in much different positions. Since most people use Windows, if a hardware manufacturer wants it's product to sell, they have to make it work with Windows.
That's correct now, *BUT* on servers, most manufacturers support Linux as good as Windows and it's possible that a couple of years down the road, Microsoft will have to write drivers themselves for RAID, etc. and will support only a limited selection of server-hardware. (And this will eventually kill them)
You need an example?
Compaq dropped support for the Alpha-platform, because Linux has taken it over completely and Windows only accounted for 5% of new sales of Alpha-systems.
Within a week, Microsoft dropped support for the Alpha, too, because they just can't support it alone, they just can't.
Hell, even on ordinary x86-hardware, Windows is much more complicated to install if the hardware is not preconfigured by the PC-maker for Windows. If you build your own computer, you know what I mean.
OS developers write their own drivers because they have to. Until they have sufficient market share to justify the expense from the manufacturer of creating another set of drivers, this will be their only option.
Yes, but Microsoft does not have that option.
Once, their dominance is in danger it's just a big way down for MS without any hope for return.