Red Hat Invades Washington

Paul Coe Clark III writes: "I caught Michael Tiemann, CTO of Red Hat, in Washington yesterday and grilled him about the DMCA, the SSSCA, the Sklyarov case and the future of Linux."

Comments

Good points, but *how* is the market different?

[fiddlesticks]

The most interseting comment in that i/v -
that he thinks the PC desktop market is dead, and that other markets (embedded, appliance-led products, networked devices) are the way forward, was not picked up by the interviewer IMHO.

'...all show high projected growths, except for PCs. Tiemann taps the dismal PC projection] That is what I'm saying is dead..'.

How is RH addressing these markets? I am sure they are, but more clarity would be nice. I work with Interactive TV boxes in the Uk, and we dont care about the OS, and neither do the consumers.

It's the middleware that counts. Pace boxes running Liberate middleware run VX Works OS, but as a developer for the Interactive box I'm not allowed anywhere near that level of code. So, is RH gonna go for the OEM market, or is it going to what is the *equivalent* of the desktop and build OSs that fit nicely with higher level code?

Nope, I'm not making much sense, but as this is, after all, as he has said, an entirely different market than the one he's used to, I'd like to know more.

Re:Good points, but *how* is the market different?

[fiddlesticks]

Sure, as I said, I am sure RH is addressing these markets. The question is though, where do they see their key strengths?

Is it in the kernel level improvements in speed and rendering time they need to power a DSAT receiver?

Or is it the ability to mass manufacture distros for one (ish) platform, in which there's already a hacker culture that can be tapped into, where the hardware guys have started sticking 'red hat ready' stickers on new peripherals.

Or maybe just being veryveryvery good at runing apache?

How good are they at winning big, f*** off hardware contracts - how many PCs come shipped with RH? How many different appliance level versions are they going to produce? DO they want the GUI market for appliances or the end user? So that end users with box X running digital platform Y care about neither cos it's got RedHatInside?

Which appliance OEMs are they talking to? Who are their competitors? Are they interested in the OS fight? Who is the fight with?

The above markets are not imposible to dominate *as well* as making the desktop software that's EZ to install and packed full of apps, but it's a different ball game. I am not questioning their ability to do that, in fact I'm keen for them to do it, but more detail is needed. I'll check the RH embedded site out, though, thanks

Re:Good Interview

[krmt]

So Microsoft is responsible because people are satisfied with their computers? I don't think that's really what you were getting at.

No, that's not what I was really getting at. I'm not saying it's a bad thing that Microsoft is making people satisfied with their computers. What I mean is that because they are a monopoly, people have nothing else to compare to (except Apple, which they don't even look at) to realize that they could have better. In that sense, their absolute domination has killed the market.

And I think that the point about set-top boxes is mistaken. He's not really promising on any of this, he's delivered a package that people can use. I'm betting most all of the devices that use embedded linux won't be consumer-oriented. They'll be for corporations and engineers and such, people doing highly specialized work who need something more than a palm pilot. That's where I think Linux will make inroads. It won't be something most of us see or really care about, but I think he's right to go there.

Opportunity or opposition?

[spamkabuki]

Q: What are Red Hat's investment priorities?

A: I think it's a build-up to meet the opportunity in the UNIX-to-Linux migration and embedded systems. Those are the two priorities.

Building up to meet the UNIX-to-Linux migration or the migration to UNIX that is OS X? RH basically conceded the desktop in the face of M$ monopoly. Embedded is certainly the place for growth. But aside from that, is Apple the real competition?

OS X is one of the widest installed distribution of UNIX, has an elegant desktop solution, and has the potential to be an elegant server solution for many purposes. Rumors of the possibility of OS X for other hardware also stir the pot.

Don't get me wrong. I really appreciate what Linux has done for me personally. As a (past) RH customer, I can't say the same for that particular company. What direction is RH really going to go, and can they do it successfully?

Embedded; Maybe.
Desktop: No.
Servers, Telcos: Maybe.

Re:Opportunity or opposition?

[krmt]

Building up to meet the UNIX-to-Linux migration or the migration to UNIX that is OS X? RH basically conceded the desktop in the face of M$ monopoly. Embedded is certainly the place for growth. But aside from that, is Apple the real competition?

No, when he said UNIX, he meant it. Like you said, Apple isn't really a competitor, they're a niche market. OSX Server ain't bad (used it plenty myself) but it's really going to be a minor player in relation to 2k (and whatever follows) and other *NIXes. Everyone knows Linux is a great server OS, there's no denying it,and that's where the meat of Redhat's income will be coming from for now. The way to make that income grow is to gather more of the server market, and the easiest way for them to do this is to make it easy to transition from their HP's and Solaris servers.

And as for rumors of OSX Server on other platforms, I'll believe it when I see it. There's no way, given Apple's past, that they'd do this now.

let's look at what he said

[Erris]

It is certainly possible to be successful using Linux on the desktop, as I do, but from a commercial perspective, as long as there is a monopolist who continues to behave in a way that violates antitrust law, I don't think there's much hope for an alternative desktop. The desktop market is not an exciting market. It has reached a point of saturation.

Translation: we could do it, but we won't make any money on it, M$ has effectivly blocked us there so we are going to look elsewhere.

He's wrong. Packaging a slick easy to install set of desktop software was a great Red Hat strength, and there is great demand for what they offer. They need to position themselves as the solution to the problems of propraitory code: programs that don't talk to each other, shifting "standards" that waste work, poor security, and massive IT budgets that churn junk all day without being able to fix anything. They have not done a good job of getting the word out about specific issues and how they have a solution. No one else in the US has the training network, name recognition and ability to do what they can. The market is there, you just have to make it happen. Think of Sony and the Walkman. The demand was there, despite a downturn in consumer electronics. Sony just created the product that people really wanted. Red Hat will only be defeated if they give up, or start acting like M$ themselves.

Re:Good Interview

[krmt]

This is very true, but consider this: what if Microsoft's hegemony has squashed innovation to such a degree that the new great processor-and-memory-intensive-apps-for-the-masses just aren't being made? OSX is not that fast, even on high end hardware. The reason is that it's doing a ton of great stuff for the user behind the scenes. Maybe we can't see past our noses in this regard? Maybe there is more to be done that can really take advantage of all this capability, but because Microsoft doesn't really have anyone left to steal ideas from it hasn't gotten done?

This does seem a little absurd in a way, but I don't think it's far fetched. We all know how little Microsoft innovates, and now that there is no other real game in town, how much innovation is happening? There is a reason people advocate competition in the marketplace, and I think we're seeing the reason for it, as well as the dangers of monopoly.

Computers Evolving, or Changing.

[SuperDuG]

With RedHat's new buying into the eCos and embedded technologies ... of course the CEO of RedHat will be publically pushing towards that realm of things ...

I say it now and I know I'll eat my words in 10 years, but "Who wants a box that can change channels, play every type of media, connect to the internet and play games?" Well the X-Box and PS2 have almost made the perfect component for that, but daddy wurbucks isn't putting one in his new home entertainment system quite yet ...

Why are PC sales dropping? Everyone and their brother has one ... I mean lets face it ... everyone has a computer, or they at least can name 50 people they've met that have one. When the television came out no one thought anyone would ever have a need to have more than one TV in their house??? But low-and-behold multiple TV's are something that most middleclass to uperclass people have in their homes now.

Multiple computer homes are starting to become the standard for joe-public, but they aren't as common as they will be in the future. Will embedded low-priced systems be the key to this. You bet your ass they will. Will they run ( insert favorite free OS here ) ??? who knows ... I mean does that really matter anymore. If people want to run ( insert favorite OS here ) on their systems ... they will.

Computers aren't going away ever ... the home computer is so big that we have made billionaires out of the craze. Will there be a bigger craze ... of course ... will it make new billionaires? ... of course.

So is the interview all bunk? ... Is the CEO of RedHat lying when he says he believes that personal computers are becoming a thing of the past? ... NO ... but I don't think the home computer is leaving any time soon ... people like the ability to upgrade their computers ... even if they have no idea how ... so long as they believe they can upgrade without having to actually buy a whole new product ... even if buying a new better product really isn't that much more than the cost of the new product.

I dunno ... I'm weird ... and hell ... this is all just opinion ... I can be wrong :-)