Larsen Ice Shelf Collapses

Cally writes in: "The BBC reports that the Larsen B Ice Shelf in Antarctica, a 200m thick ice floe covering 3,250 sq km, has disintegrated. This is terrible news. The widely respected British Antarctic Survey are quoted as saying "We knew what was left would collapse eventually, but the speed of it is staggering[...] [It is hard] to believe that 500 billion tonnes of ice sheet has disintegrated in less than a month." As a Greenpeace member who's been following the debate for over a decade, it's hard not to feel aggrieved at those with their own agenda who have pushed the theory that global climate change isn't happening. Risk = probability x consequence..." The big iceberg is a separate event.

Comments

Weather patterns

[reachinmark]

It bothers me that people think they can make assumptions about the Earth's weather patterns based on roughly 100 years (NASA: Surface Temperature Analysis) of temperature data.

Given that we are constantly learning about various cycles in global climate, some of which seem to span over thousands of years ( E.g. NASA: The Sun-Weather connection), you can't possibly claim for certain that any temperature fluctuations over the past 10, 20 or 50 years are due exlusively to our behaviour.

I'm not against cleaning up the earth, I just think that global warming isn't a good argument.

Re:Weather patterns

[Cally]

It bothers me that people think they can make assumptions about the Earth's weather patterns based on roughly 100 years (NASA: Surface Temperature Analysis [nasa.gov]) of temperature data.

We don't. We use proxy measurements such as bubbles of air trapped in ice core samples, sediments from lake beds, tree rings, etc etc etc. using many different measurements, which often overlap (and hence correlate each other) we have a fairly good idea of the paleoclimate back to several billion years ago.

Re:Oh my goodness no!

[Denito]

Your post is typical of the 'skepticism by convience' found so often in this debate..

Here are some resources:

BBC Report

EPA website on global warming

Union of concerned scientists.

btw, you forgot to post your evidence.. (typical skeptic evidence: We don't know for 10000000000% sure, so this must be environmentalist propoganda"

-D

p.s. Ok, I'll say It. You, are a mo-ron.

Re:Oh my goodness no!

[general_re]

I'm in, then.

John Daly's massive clearinghouse, Still Waiting for Greenhouse
An article by MIT meteorology professor Richard Lindzen.

There's lots more, but others might want to play.

Two graphs to consider.

[e_lehman]

If you're unsure where you stand on the issue of global warming, you might want to look at the following two graphs. The first shows that carbon dioxide levels are rapidly rising. There is no real question that this is much human induced. At the same time, global temperatures are also dramatically rising. Here the extent of human influence is more debatable. It is possible that an apparent cause (rising CO2) and an apparent effect (rising temperatures) are both happening independently but, coincidentally, at the same time. And, also at the same time, there is some other, unknown force causing the entire planet to heat. It truly is possible. But I wouldn't personally bet the world on that.

Meanwhile, In other news ...

[gewalker]

According to most scientistics, the retreat in the West Antarctic ice sheet has been occuring for 10,000 years.

Also on BBC, Ice thickens in West Antarctica

Sun is hotter, but shrinking (mass energy conversion, you know).

Maybe we should realize that perhaps some of the global warming hype is just hype. Everytime there is a heat wave on the news coasts, there a new round of global warming stories. Normal climate variability is large, and modern winters are not the warmest ever (or even in modern history). Check out Minnesota 1877. The observed long-term warming trend since 1900 is not unusual in terms of climate history.

BTW, risk of Kyoto protocol is followed in 100% of the expected cost, because it is certain damage to world economy.

Re:Who caused the Ice Age?

[goober]

>Finally, who caused the last Ice Age?

One new theory, the Raymo-Chambelin Hypothesis, suggests that the last ice age was triggered by the collision of the Indian subcontinent and Asia, and the subsequent uplift of the Himalayan plateau. This caused a sharp increase in chemical weathering in Southeast Asia which removed CO2 from the atmosphere (reverse greenhouse effect) and dropped temperatures. Cool!

Not based on the last 100 years at all.

[Moderation abuser]

The trends have been measured over several thousand years using ice cores and sediment analysis.

Re:The Earth's temperature has ALWAYS fluctuated.

[mwillis]

Actually, another ice age has been theorized. Europe could enter another ice age because of global warming.

Worldwide ecology is a complicated system, and Europe owes much of its warmth to actions of salty atlantic ocean currents. We don't know if the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation locations will move farther from europe... but if it did, let's just note that in Canada, there are polar bears at Edinburgh's latitude. Of course, it might also move closer, and europe could get even warmer.

Some more information: Natural Science Article, The Atlantic Online

ps - I'm not sure if I really buy all this, but the lack of certainty does inspire some concern.

Re:Not that much water

[iceT]

Talk about checking your math... You're proposing that the DRY surface area of the planet is 361,000,000 million meters square? There are million square-foot BUILDINGS in the world. Doesn't that seem a little LIGHT to you?

When I square 6,376,000, I get 4.06e+13. Now, times 3.142 = 1.277e+14. And, times 4, I get 5.10e+14.

That's 510,000,000,000,000 meters square. Times .25, you get 127,700,000,000,000 square meters of dry land.

Re:The earth changes..

[MtViewGuy]

BINGO!!

I think too many environmentalists ignore the fact that human activity is nothing compared to what Nature can do. Do you know that a single hurricane can cause destruction on a scale that makes even our biggest nuclear bombs look puny? Look at what hurricane Camille did in 1969--destruction on an unimaginable scale. Or the fact that a single major volcanic eruption can cause climate changes, as witnessed by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, which actually cooled the atmosphere for over a year? We know that the eruption of Mt. Tambora in what is now Indonesia in 1815 (which sent 15 cubic miles of volcanic ash into the atmosphere) caused much of the Northern Hemisphere to cool quite rapidly--indeed, there are records of blizzards in the upper Hudson River Valley in early July 1816!

For everyone looking at that book

[mikosullivan]

in which the author systematically demolishes most of the non-scientific arguments of the "green" lobby

... only for certain values of "demolish" and "most". Be sure to look at these opposing views as well as the book itself:

• UCS examines The Skeptical Environmentalist
• Nine things journalists should know about The Skeptical Environmentalist

As a long time skeptic on many issues myself (just ask my friends who have asked me what sign I am) skepticism is a good thing. Just remember that it goes both ways.

-Miko

More Info

[Alien54]

RFN had this last night. But here is a page with some other photos.

RFN had links to other research sites, some of which have pics every week or two for the past two months.

Re:Oh my goodness no!

[Cally]

Some more sources.



http://www.pewclimate.org/
http://www.marshall. org/
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/welcome.html
http: //www.scienceforum.net/
http://www.rivm.nl/env/in t/ipcc/tar.html
http://www.worldwatch.org/
http: //www.epa.gov/globalwarming/index.html
http://www .ipcc.ch/
http://www.unep.org/unep/eia/geo2000/
http://www.earthdot.org/
http://www-climate.mcs.a nl.gov
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/Model/model.h tml
http://www-unix.mcs.anl.gov/acpi/



And some (mostly BBC) stories related to climate change:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsi d_ 1880000/1880566.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1833000/1833902.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1528000/1528348.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/in_depth/sci_tec h/2002/boston_2002/newsid_1825000/1825283.stm
htt p://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/americas/n ewsid_1820000/1820584.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/l ow/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1804000/1804467.stm
http://science.nasa.gov/headl ines/y2002/15jan_gree nhouse.htm?list98953
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/en glish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1782000/1782691.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1779000/1779619.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1718000/1718183.stm
http://www.spacedaily.com/new s/early-earth-01k.htm l
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/america s/n ewsid_1375000/1375089.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/l ow/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1664000/1664887.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1706000/1706823.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/eng lish/uk/england/newsi d_1661000/1661560.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/e nglish/sci/tech/newsid_ 1643000/1643156.stm
http://science.nasa.gov/headl ines/y2001/ast07sep_1 .htm?list98953

Re:I wouldn't tak eGreenpeace's word for it.

[Cally]

...and by the way the quotes are from the British Antarctic Survey who, as I said in the story, are respected around the world - what with having been there since 1912, and all. THEY are not sandal-wearing hippie museli munchers: they'r PhDs, grad students, professors etc who spend 6 months a year living on the ice.

Re:Greenhouse Gasses

[suitti]

For any heat base power generation system, like nuclear, gas, coal, oil, the best efficiency that thermodynamics allows is 50%. So, a 1 Gigawatt power plant must produce at least 1 gigawatt of heat. We used to dump this into our rivers. But a 10 megawatt plant on the Connecticut river would raise the temperature of the river by 10 degrees F, forever. This is an ecological disaster, not because it's 10 degrees, but because it's instant. Ecosystems require more time than instant to adapt.

Dumping the heat into the air gets rid of the heat pretty well. That's what the hyperbolic towers are for. Most of the heat radiates into space.

A Nuke plant's pollution is thus mainly a little waste heat. Of course, the gigawatt of electrical power eventually is turned into heat, too.

Nuke plants are pretty expensive to operate. You have to be extremely careful, which costs money. The cost of fuel is quite low - nearly insignificant, like $10/megawatt hour.

There is a hidden cost, and I'm not sure that it has been paid yet. Once the fuel is consumed, it must be disposed of. At the moment, we're storing the spent fuel at the Nuke plant. This is a short term stopgap proceedure. We need a longer term solution. The current proposed solution in the US is very late, and way over budget. Since you must store the spent fuel for a million years, you must store it in a geologically benign place. Since a million years is a long time, I'd argue that no such place exists. So, you have to design it so that it is possible to move the fuel from time to time. This will provide us with an additional cost stream forever.

The other cost is that, statistically, there will be other 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, etc., incidents. The more plants you run, the higher the chances.

The UK is talking about ramping up to 10% of their power derived from wind energy. It is expected to be competitive with other power types.

Solar power isn't currently considered viable, but should become so pretty soon.

At the moment, we heat our houses by burning more fossile fuels. We could heat them by using waste heat from electrical power plants. Purdue University runs it's own electrical power plant, and heats the campus as a side effect. It's not a new idea.

Conservation provided the US most of the way out of the 70's energy crisis. Reducing the highway speed limit saved about 15% in fuel. And, it happens instantly - despite what President Bush said.

We don't really have to drive gas guzzling SUVs. My primary car averages about 33 MPG. It's a 4 door sedan, about 14 years old. I'd like to replace it with something more efficient. Several products are available and affordable.

I've started replacing incandescant lights in the house with screw-in flouresant bulbs. These last longer, produce the same light but use much less power and produce less heat. I'm finding that I can't use them everywhere, but they work in most places. My electric bill is lower.

Re:Oh my goodness no!

[letxa2000]

Temperatures recorded worldwide by satellites have shown no global warming in the 23 years they've been operating (since 1979).

The satellite record is much more accurate because it covers 90%+ of the earth whereas the surface record only covers a small fraction of the earth. I.e., where there are cities, mostly in the northern hemisphere, and almost no constant readings from the high seas.

Further, the surface record is heavily biased due to the fact that urban sprawl has created "heat islands" around cities. Recording stations that used to be out in the fields are now in the middle of parking lots.

While the greenies have tried to discredit the satellite record, they haven't succeeded, and the satellite record is the most reliable and accurate information we have about global temperatures. And they haven't increased in 23 years.

Those of us that don't believe in human-caused global warming are NOT living in denial nor is it that we could care less about the planet. Those of us who don't believe in global warming have taken the time to study the facts and come to a conclusion which is very unpopular in today's culture.

But, say this to yourself until you understand what you means: THERE HAS BEEN NO GLOBAL WARMING IN THE 23 YEARS WE'VE HAD SATELLITES MONITORING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES.

Re:Oh my goodness no!

[rm-r]

Actually science shows us how global temperatures DROP after major volcano blasts. By comparing thr rings on tree trunks (thiner in cold years, wider in warm years) to a record of big blasts (such as here.)

Your turn.

PS why should I blind believe you over 'the greenies'? No doubt you have an agenda to, yet you seem to think you are the only one who knows theirs

Re:The Earth's temperature has ALWAYS fluctuated.

[Reziac]

As you say, global climate shifts have always happened, and our piddly couple hundred years of records are nothing against the overall patterns, which probably have more to do with orbital wobbles and variations in the sun's output than anything that happens on the microcosm of the Earth's surface. Even relatively massive surface events like Krakatoa (which IIRC put out more dust and "greenhouse gasses" in one swell foop than all of humanities' efforts combined) don't have a lasting effect against the overall patterns of climate.

Not only that, but per studies that didn't have an axe to grind, it turns out natural sources of "greenhouse gasses" -- swamps and such -- outstrip humanity's production by several orders of magnitude.

Furthermore, that the biggest human-caused waste-gasses and general-atmospheric-pollutants production spike took place about 1890 (during the major spasms of the Industrial Revolution) and has dropped ever since.

Methinks coincidence is being taken for causation again.

Re:The Earth's temperature has ALWAYS fluctuated.

[zudark]

"Even relatively massive surface events like Krakatoa (which IIRC put out more dust and "greenhouse gasses" in one swell foop than all of humanities' efforts combined)".

This "volcanos are worse greenhouse emitters than humanity" bit keeps popping back up ever since Rush was spouting about it for a while in the early/mid 90's. In fact, total global volcanic C02 output is estimated to be about 1/150th that of athropogenic C02 output [Gerlach, T.M., 1991, Present-day CO2 emissions from volcanoes: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (EOS), v. 72, p. 249, and 254-255.]

Sulfer is a slightly different story -- volcanos actually make up around 50% of natural sulfer emmisions! This is still only about 1/10 as much as human activity produces, however.

About the only area of concern in which volcanos outstrip human emissions are stratospheric injection of various aerosols and dusts during explosive erruptions (rare!) and emmissions of certain heavy metals like selenium. Not lead though -- we still win there :)

Going beyond that to your several orders of magnitude swamps... anthropogenic C02 emmissions total somewhere around 5 to 10Gigatons of carbon per year... gross terrestrial biosphere carbon release is somwhere around 60GT/year, which is in fact less than one order of magnitude. Couple that with the fact that gross terrestrial biosphere _uptake_ of carbon is quite close the emissions, and the net effect on the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources is greater.

-Ethan O'Connor

So lets feed the troll

[ramb]

The petition was something between fraudulent and a horrible joke. Robinson's co-authors included his home-schooled son, 22 at the time, and two astrophysicists. None of the authors had ever done any climate work.

The Oregon Petition, sponsored by the OISM, was circulated in April 1998 in a bulk mailing to tens of thousands of U.S. scientists. In addition to the petition, the mailing included what appeared to be a reprint of a scientific paper. Authored by OISM's Arthur B. Robinson and three other people, the paper was titled "Environmental Effects of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" and was printed in the same typeface and format as the official Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A cover note from Frederick Seitz, who had served as president of the NAS in the 1960s, added to the impression that Robinson's paper was an official publication of the academy's peer-reviewed journal.

The NAS(USA) eventually sent out a public rebuke disavowing involvement and pointing out that it's own committee had reached the opposite conclusion.

"The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal," it stated in a news release. "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." In fact, it pointed out, its own prior published study had shown that "even given the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge of the relevant phenomena, greenhouse warming poses a potential threat sufficient to merit prompt responses. Investment in mitigation measures acts as insurance protection against the great uncertainties and the possibility of dramatic surprises."

Re:The earth changes..

[Kintanon]

Bad me for replying to myself, but here is a link to check out if you don't believe me.
Climate Study

Kintanon