A Unified Theory of Software Evolution
jso888 writes "Salon has a nice article today on Meir Lehman's work on how software evolves and is developed. Lehman's investigation of the IBM OS/360 development process became the foundation for Brooks' Law: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later." He is hopeful that his work will make software development less of an art and more of an engineering science."
While "Brook's law" might be a law, it's only useful in retrospect. Most software projects have no idea how far behind they really are. So basically, you can always add manpower, you're really only half way through anyways...
"Unless IBM programmers had suddenly figured out a way to write error-free code -- an unlikely assumption -- Lehman made a dire prediction: OS/360 was heading over a cliff. IBM, in stressing growth over source-code maintenance, would soon be in need of a successor operating system."
Which means that commerical systems don't so much evolve as stub their growth paths out and switch direction or spawn new generations because embedded complexity has killed off the feasibility of maintaining it. In other words, all new releases are the cause of and ultimately an attempt to escape from, the chimera that is overly complex code. In commercial terms this should be astounding. We're paying to gronk up our own because we erroneously believe the NEXT version will be something radically new and elegant which of course it can't be.
New Version "x+1.y" is simply an ejection seat.
Not only is this not true, it's impossible to do this in practice. If you do this, you'll find that you still blow a lot of time on design, development takes longer, because your design is unnecessarily abstract, and your design proves inadequate for something that you need to implement further down the road. Requirements change, and this has consequences for the design. The best one can hope for is that the basic architecture is robust enough that it doesn't require a complete upheaval.
What is necessary is a method for changing design gracefully. "Refactoring" is the best source I've seen that addresses this. Basically, you change methodically, and you test.