Slashdot Mirror
Life on The Net in 2004
NewtonsLaw writes "In recent years the Net has changed very quickly from a great place for geeks and nerds into a highly commercialized marketplace in which everyone is making a grab for your wallet. If it's not wave after wave of spam in your mailbox, it's excessively intrusive ad banners and popups, or demands by websites that you pay a subscription for access.
The DMCA and other pending legislation could soon mean that companies such as Microsoft and the recording labels will cement their total ownership of your online rights -- leaving you with nothing but a hefty bill to pay whenever you want to use their software or services.
Today's Aardvark Daily carries an interesting editorial that speculates on just what life could be like in the very near future. Sobering -- but perhaps not too far from reality?"
Hint: disable javascript, edit your /etc/hosts file to map various interesting domain names to 127.0.0.1, and don't use an idiotic mail client that eagerly executes scripted content.
Crispin
----
Crispin Cowan, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist, WireX Communications, Inc.
Immunix: Security Hardened Linux Distribution
Available for purchase
[An advertisement airs on broadcast television during 2004....]
Narrator: Deep in the shadows and during late night hours, terrorists construct computers so they may prevent Americans the opportunity to enjoy music, film, and software.
(Display a family enjoying a movie and children listening to music)
Narrator: These terrorists are responsible for up to 30% of unemployment in our nation due to reductions in revenue for American businesses.
(Display an unemployment line and a line of Russians waiting to receive bread during the Soviet-era)
Narrator: Moreover, parts (primarily manufactured in the non-American and ugly capitalistic and piggish democractic nation of Russia) are purchased via the computer blackmarket and finance drug sales to children at schools.
(Display computers alongside dead children)
Narrator: Why would a person wish to build a computer?
(Display an individual covered by a black and dark shadow)
Narrator: Only an anti-societal and evil intention lurks in these terrorists to undermine our common courage: "one nation under god, indivisible, and united we stand."
(Display the flag of the United States of America)
Narrator: These terrorists must be reported to the Civilian Protection Team immediately! Now is the time to defend our nation! Do your part... today!
(Display a telephone and Citizen Protection Member (CPM) dressed in uniform and receiving a request from a female citizen in the foreground with the flag in the background)
Narrator 2: This message brought to you by the Council for an Evil Free America.
(Display Evil Buster Logo (TM) )
"There ought to be limits to freedom"
There is this fear of government 'ruining' your life by passing laws about software and copy rights and such.
Some of it is warranted but not this kind of horrid future.
There is a very good alternative to it all. Just walk away from it. I know I don't have to have email in my personal life. I don't have to have the web either. I certainly don't need the music produced by the big record companies, or the movies and t.v. shows produced by the big entertainment conglomerates.
If enough people opt out of these things- and put their energy into developing alternatives, those alternatives will thrive.
The only government that can stop that is one that does away with the very basic liberties of movement and ownership. I know- a lot of people think that is already happening but I would say not.
I'm not saying don't be concerned or take action. I just think that this dark vision of the future is a bit much.
Not to mention it completely leaves out the advances that will be made in the circumvention of these laws.
Imagine before cable t.v. someone writing a story where the draconian cable company sends you a bill- or they'll turn your t.v. off!
Some people pay and don't think anything of it.
A lot of people just steal cable.
Me- I just go without and save a lot of time that would have been wasted watching what is for the most part drivel.
.
It's hard to believe that's how Micronians are made. Why don't we see it right now by having you both kiss one another?
A free market is about being able to empower BOTH the seller AND the buyer so that they can negotiate a price point based on the invisible hand of supply and demand. When a supplier has exclusive control over a market, that is NEITHER capitalism or a free market. Microsoft's business practices have NOTHING to do with capitalism.
Free software happens to empower the buyer and enables more than one seller, hence, it is a very pro-capitalism and pro-market proposition. While it may be true that a single entity may not be able to extort monopolist prices to the determinent of the buyer, it also generally true that a more competitive market with multiple suppliers is generally better both for the quality of goods supplied and the total size of the market. This is real capitalism. This is free software!
I love how capitalists and authoritarians alike fall back on the notion that inequality and suffering are "facts of life" and so capitalism and authority is just - and yet they fail to go by that same reasoning when it comes to murder, theft, and overall crime. You can't have it both ways. Either the world revolves around pain and brutality or it doesn't. Whether or not that brutality puts money into your goddamn fucking greedy ass pockets is completely irrelevant.
Why don't you put aside your greed for one moment and think about the possibility, just the possibility, that the world doesn't have to be so fucked up.
We wave the flag of freedom as we conquer and invade.
1) Exactly what this article states. Although I find this the least likely outcome.
2) The internet turns into tv + shopping. Lots of ads you can't get past
3) The internet gets so bad, that the geeks create decentralised, efficient, free-floating network partially on top of the existing network, partially outside of it, and it all begins again
4) It goes on exactly like it is now. the (x)AAs of the world keep trying to hold us down, the advertisers keep trying to make us look, MS keeps trying to make us pay (again), and we keep trying to stay one step ahead of them all. This is IMHO the most likely situation.
Send lawyers, guns, and money!
I'd figure I would write an accound of how I would live then.
.
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It's 6:30am some day in 2004.
The alarm goes and you rise from your bed to face the day's challenges.
After a quick shower and breakfast you wander over to your PC and check to see if any email has arrived overnight.
Hmm... 231 new emails but procmail say that 217 of those are likely to be spam. Even though they've cp'ed dropped into another folder you'll still have to wade through them to make sure that you don't miss an important message that might have been accidentally sidetracked by the less-than-perfect software. But, you still rm -rf them...
Damn, it looks as if you've also received 5 new virus/trojan attachments as well and one of them was 20MB in size -- that's another $4 on your DSL bill.
Suddenly a pop-up dialog box, through emulation by Wine, appears advising you that there are 2 new Windows Security updates that should be downloaded, totalling some 60MB in size (another $12 worth of traffic). You block the server in HOSTS, as so your Windows emulation doesn't tattle on you.
Within seconds, the PC's desktop comes alive with pop-up flashing, animated advertising banners -- you proceed to kill Mozilla you hacked to use with the newer, propeirty html'like protocol. You start up lynx.
Another dialog box pops up, this time warning you that the license for your copy of Windows XP2004 is due to expire in 10 days. You run the registry crack within linux so the emulation dll's will still work.
Fond memories of the days when there were alternatives to Microsoft's OS pass through your mind -- but that was before the government realised that software was like petrol -- a totally essential commodity in the lives of most businesses and individuals. Legislation was passed in 2003 that required all software developers and vendors to be licensed and a 45% tax added to all sales. However, in China, they realised that everything revolved around freely accessible software. China has changed in all thier practices, as to make thier ideal commuinist regime a very livable place for free people. Of course, much to Microsoft's glee, this killed the Open Source from being supported by companies in the US. You howver, bought a black marked copy of DRM linux. This software exploits bugs within the hardware. Of course, having the PCI64 (bought in Korea) anti-drm card has made this much easier
You type in "cnn.com" then enter the ID and password associated with your monthly subscription. Remember when there were hundreds of sites offering the latest news for free? Not any more. Sure, there still a few, but they're regularly hit with law suits by the big names who allege breach of copyright. Although such suits are inevitably dismissed -- the cost of defending them means that the independent news sites usually only last a few months at most. SO you hop onto freenet and use the strange lists of characters that somehow, somewhere lead you to slashdot.
Flicking the remote beside you kicks your digital music player into action and you marvel that 5% of its computing power is dedicated to the sophisticated digital rights management system it contains. You inwardly cheer, as your newly bought anti-drm card with DRM linux does work.
Following an unsuccessful attempt to copy-protect CDs, the recording industry forced everyone to a new mini-CD format that has yet to be cracked (although there are rumours that some Russians have succeeded). You just can't buy music on CDs anymore and the old CDR/RW media now costs $10 a disk, thanks to the $9 anti-piracy levy that was introduced in 2003. Since, the US put levies on anti-'capitalism' countries, you carry removable drives with your required software and movies on them.
Another warning appears -- "Your license for this recording has expired, unable to play." Damn -- another $49 if you want to listen to that music for another year. You then erase them, as you have all your music backed up on steel tape. You wonder, if as they claim, these new measures significantly reduce piracy, why music is now so much more expensive? "It's because of people libe me", you say under your breath.
You type up a quick email to a friend, inviting them to meet you for lunch. As to attract governmental idiots, so they use thier time on a nobody like yourself, you post as your signature the following words:
I will Bomb aeroplane shit damn nuke EMP fire death murder poison buy pirate warez mp3 ogg gpg
After all, every single bit that enters and leaves your PC is now scanned by the authorities -- under the premise that it is in the interests of (inter)national security and crime reduction. I'll make sure to be here at 4 am tomorrow, as they'll make YET another raid. They won't find a thing.
It's funny how they can supposedly detect even an unfriendly tone in an email but they can't (or won't) stop the endless tide of spam isn't it?
Suddenly your PC's screen clears and the image of a naked woman in a seductive pose appears. Oh no, more of those shlopenglaurs whatsits. You see wht pid it's running, and kill it with -9
For a moment a smile crosses your face -- you're thinking of the "good old days" when the Internet was a much simpler, saner, safer place. Instead, you live on the edge of piracy, illegitimacy. You are a hacker.
Then you return to reality with the realisation that it's just 7:05am and the sucker's accound you hacked already spent $264.
_______________________________________________
As a last note, I used this article without permission (I see this differently than normal slashdot cut/paste jobs). So I give full permission to aardvark.co.nz to use my article (even if it makes money (heh, like thats going to happen, but still...)
CARRIER LOST....
Well, the great thing about the Internet is that everyone -- anyone -- can have their place, their nook, their niche.
But let's be honest here... if 50% of America has Internet access -- a good 140 some million people -- it's a safe bet that a minority of those 140,000,000 are "geeks" or "nerds." The net reflects what people online demand. If 90% of surfers were "nerds," I'm sure we'd see it slanted the other way.
I'm not much into programming anymore and I'm done with Linux. I'm a non-programming OS X user now but I come to Slashdot every day (more than once a day) because I love this community... but I also have demands for CNN.com, Macintouch.com, Apple.com, guitar websites, TheOnion.com, Yahoo Finance, Google, and so on... and none of those are "geek locations."
I think the net is just how I like it. In fact, it's close to how anyone likes it! The net's very adaptive because it's distributed. Like democracy, it shifts to what the majority want and allows space for the minority, too (though sometimes slowly).
The next comment I write will be ready soon, but subscribers can beat the rush and see it early!
... actually promoted an essay writing competition to encourage how people approved of the the way IP laws helped them. (http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/alert/2001/ma03r ev.htm)
A bunch of legal scholars spearheaded a counter-essay competition to reflect less sanguine views (http://www.wipout.net/essays.html)
It will be interesting to compare the results.
Everything is cyclical. The 2004 article may in fact happen. If life on the net somehow gets that bad, there will be an equal and opposite force that limits the damage.
Without a doubt, the legal aspects of this will be every bit as bad as the article suggests. However, there is a big difference between having laws and enforcing them. In the 2004 scenario, practically everyone who owns a computer will be violating somebody's license or patent. The legal system may very well drown in it's own filth.
Considering how Napster was launched by a few low-budget geeks, imagine what might happen with serious opposition. I have often heard about the open source movement being the "Viet Cong" of the software world. Using laws to control a guerilla force is not going to be effective. If gun control doesn't stop criminals from using guns, I don't see how SSSCA is going to fare any better with computers. Surely, some people will be intimidated, but the Internet will simply become more encrypted and private. Historically, the Russians have been among the world leaders in dealing with repressive regimes. They are especially well suited for the Microsoft-Disney-Hollings world. Dimitry Sklyarov may very well have the last laugh after all.
The 2004 article presumes that the bad guys have achieved a total victory. The same mentality would have predicted a British victory in the American revolution, and a US victory in the Vietnam war. Goliath doesn't always win.
On the surface, it looks like Microsoft, RIAA, and Disney are a dominant force because they have money. We can assume that money will buy custom-crafted legislation (DMCA, SSSCA, and whatever Hollings is told to produce). But the advantage ends there. If you think about the brainpower aspect of this battle, a finite number of software professionals will have to outsmart an almost limitless number of guerilla hackers -- 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. Every time the hackers get lucky, the "axis of evil" loses millions of dollars. The reason why Micrsoft is being hacked and embarrassed on a daily basis is not because they are dumb, it's because they are outnumbered.
We can't afford to be complacent, but this battle is by no means over.
I just upgraded my DVD-rom just to find out that its RPC-2. They moved the Region code from the OS (RPC-1) to the firmware on the drive. You can only switch it 5 times, then it locks in firmware. No where on the box did it say it was RPC-2, nor is there any requirements for them to do so.
/bin/freedom
Maybe DRM is closer than you think.
-
chmod +a rwx
Anything a geek can create, a politician can legislate against.
A political problem doesn't cry out for a technological solution... but we're not politicians. We're geeks.
-Eldurbarn
It does nothing but make things look insane. You think people would stand for this? Where is all the income going to come from this? Someone is going to pay $12 to download 60MB of stuff? Come on. $149 for a software license YEARLY? Please.
What are they going to do, format your hard drive if you connect with an older version of windows? of Linux?
Oh yeah, and of course IBM, Sun, HP, and all those vendors with other OSes besides MS are going to let them get a state mandated desktop OS.
The government would NEVER pass a low outlawing development of software. That would be struck down for anti-free speech rules easy.
Oh yeah, European Union? Canada? They're gonna stand for it? Right. People emigrating from the US so they can use a computer. Whee.
plus, every self respecting geek on the planet would quit working on computers, and the whole frickin internet would collpase in a day.
Paper MCSE's can't run the internet.
As a rock-in-roll Physicist once said, No matter where you go, there you are.
People who support micropayments usually claim that they'll be so small that you won't notice them, much less care about them. Nice dream, but it doesn't take into account the motivations of the people involved.
When people set their mandatory micropayment prices, they'll do it to maximize profit. The prices will find and sit at the awareness threshold of users, so you'll look up and see you've spent $5 over the course of a few minutes without really noticing it. People will respond to this by thinking of internet use as an expensive activity, and keeping it to a minimum. The reduced demand will drive prices up higher.
That's a natural consequence of each entity setting the prices of what their selling. Information doesn't compete on price very well. I forget who said it... "Information wants to be free, because it's so easy to distribute, yet information wants to be expensive, because it's so useful." When the people owning the information set the price, they can make it expensive, because it takes a fairly high price before it's better than not having the information.
However, voluntary micropayments don't have this tendency, being set by the users. Ultimately, I think voluntary payments will win out in any area with a sufficiently clued-in audience to make it work. The competitive advantages of free information are obviously huge, so wherever they can make enough profit to develop a comparable product to the restricted information, they'll win. Also, voluntary micropayments are much simpler and cheaper to implement.
I've written a bit on the kind of systems that would be needed (and can fairly easily be developed) to replace intellectual property restrictions, and I've done some work developing parts of them (see my sig).
I can't stand most of the crap out there, so I don't buy it. I don't buy CDs or DVDs anymore, I don't go out to movies or rent them, I don't buy pay-per-view or subscribe to premium cable channels, etc. (and I don't download any of this stuff either). Instead of producing something I would want to buy, the companies that produce this junk complain about piracy, as if I would even take their crap for free. Unfortunately, they have the money and power to make it more difficult to avoid their products (and avoid paying for them).
Despite all of this, I'm not too worried about the future described in the article. It's not that I don't see it as being likely, I just don't see it being impossible to avoid. If I don't pay today's prices for music, I won't pay high subscription fees. If web sites start charging more than they're worth, I'll go elsewhere or just go without. I base my purchasing decisions on quality, and that won't change with electronic services.
Of course, I have one secret weapon to fall back on if I have to abandon all else. Over the past few years, I have accumulated hundreds of books, at an average price of about 5 cents each. When all else fails, I'll just sit down and read (well, read more actually). And yes, Fahrenheit 451 is in there...
Every time a topic like this comes up, I am inclined to remind everyone that our online culture originated in the world of BBS's. That's where the real communities are. I've been running UNCENSORED! BBS (click to log in) for the last 14 years, and lemme tellya, I've seen it all. From the heyday of dialup to the commercialization of the Internet, from the utopian vision of a level playing field to the inevitable commercialization of the mainstream Web... guess what, folks? Through all that time, us old-school BBS geeks have been enjoying each other's company for years, in relative peace and quiet.
A friend of mine once put it this way: if places like Disneyopolis, MSN, and America Online compose the roar of the information highway, then your favorite friendly BBS could be likened to the corner pub where the locals gather.
Therefore I challenge each and every one of you to quit whining about what a commercial cesspool the mainstream Web has become, and go find your niche. Locate a BBS you like (I'd be thrilled if you chose mine, but there are lots of good ones out there) and log in daily. Become a part of the community. Meet people. Chat about whatever's on your mind: media, politics, sports, weather, relationships, technology, pets... it's all out there, and the sites operated by hobbyists are completely below the radar of corporate greed.
It's up to you. Don't like Disney's version of the 'net? Neither do I. Come join us in a place where they won't bother you.
Tired of FB/Google censorship? Visit UNCENSORED!
The reality for Internet users in Australia is that traffic costs a minimum of $0.13/Mb.
The ACCC is fighting to make Region Encoding of DVDs illegal in Australia - claiming that it's an anti-competitive trade practice.
I browse with images off as often as possible, because images cost ten times as much as the article they're obscuring. Spam costs me money. Running "apt-get upgrade" on my Debian box will cost me about $3-$10, depending on how much "woody" has changed in the last fortnight.
Opening Internet Explorer costs me money because it insists on redirecting me to the Microsoft Internet Explorer 6 home page and claiming that I really, really should download this new version of IE.
Thanks to spam, "postcards", NTP, scheduled IMAP checks and other non-interactive traffic, I can easily spend $1/hour when I'm sleeping. I don't even have to check my mail in the morning to start racking up the bills.
You people in the USA are living in a market-share-broadening dreamland, where providers are tripping over each other in an attempt to get you signed up to their networks. They all realise that once you've been using their service for 6 months "for free", they can start charging for traffic, and you'll just roll over and accept it like the good consumer-sheep you are.
In any Capitalist economy, you have to keep repeating this holy mantra - "The money has to come from somewhere. There is no such thing as a free lunch."
Damn those public school teachers. They just sit around all day wallowing in their fat stacks of cash teaching their students to be democrats. Those fucking good for nothing leeches are a blight on society. They are lazy and overpaid and worse of all they are all UNION MEMBERS. The mutherfuckers!. Them and all those evil union member cops and fireman ought to be lined up and shot!.
Sure they have good PR. They have convinced everybody that they are "heroes" for rescuing people from burning buildings, or helping out others during 9-11 but make no mistake those fuckers are union members. The teachers are always whining about underfunded schools, long hours, old books, uncaring parents, delapidated buildings as if it wasn't all their fault our educational system is all fucked up. If they would just dissolve their unions then we can pay them even less and make our schools so much better.
War is necrophilia.
Ah, yes! Before everyone else showed up, the Net was this fantastic Geek Heaven, where all things were possible. You could download naughty pictures from the Delft University sever. You could engage in endlessly stimulating MUDs with fellow dungeon-crawling geeks. You could send e-mail! Hell, you could even use Gopher to snag files. It was Heaven on Earth!
Snap out of it! There was no Slashdot (founded in 1997, decidedly after the invasion of "other people"). There was no Gnutella. No Everquest. No online newspapers. No online banking. No ordering that hard-to find computer game or book or whatever in the dead of night when you live miles from the nearest store that carries what you're looking for.
There was less of a connection between "geeks" and "normal people", meaning that people who liked to tinker with computers were shunned far more than they are today.
It wasn't Heaven, just as this predicted 2004 won't be Hell.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ