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Statistics of Deadly Quarrels
CarlNorthcore writes "Brian Hayes published this paper in the Computing Science chapter of Jan-Feb's American Scientist. It provides a fascinating and [sadly] relevant statistical exploration of our world's deadly conflicts. Look out for the excellent "Web of Wars" diagram."
I didn't like the fact that the thing has no indication of time. What about the fact that the US has been around for little over 200 years while other countries (especially the European ones with lots of lines) have been around for much more than that. Maybe they should limit this thing by time or something.
Someone should put that diagram into that gnucleus network modelling program so you can focus on certain countries. That image is so cluttered you can barely see anything.
http://www.askthevoid.com
The amount of wars we have, and considering we are entering the nano age and still cant get along. Expect us to destroy ourselves for good in the next world war.
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In most one-sided wars of acquisition (instead of punishment or destruction), you would expect the losing side to capitulate rather quickly and probably suffer not that many casualties. Belgium, for instance, probably did not suffer huge casualties against the German invasion in absolute terms (which the study uses); it did not, AFAIK, have a massive army with which to have massive losses, nor did the Germans try particularly hard to obliterate the Belgian citizenry.
(Compare to the German-Russian conflict, where massive losses were pretty much inevitable because both military machines were of such enormity, and neither's government had any intention of backing down quickly...)
Iraq was an odd case because it had a quite large, as measured in persons, but their training, morale and equipment were quite deficient.
Only the dead have seen the end of war.
Evolution. Human Nature was meant to EVOLVE.
I'm sick of every cave man, murderer, theif, and other bad person getting the term "Oh its just human nature"
No, its caveman nature. This is 2002, Humans should evolve to my level, or else why should I consider them human? I can consider them animals.
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when humanity outgrows religion is when war will end. Political issues can be reasoned through, but religion can't be.
Let us know when you make peace with bacteria and viruses trying to infect you. There are many abuses that do not involve war, but can only reliably be stopped by it, like genocide and tyranny...
Only the dead have seen the end of war.
Religion is not the cause of war. The problem is people dont follow religions which are anti war, and if they do, they ignore the "do not kill" sign on the front of their bibles and qurans.
Its not religion, its people. People want to destroy themselves. Some people their only purpose in life, are to destroy other people, Hitler is a good example.
Theres lots of other people like hitler, all of his Nazi followers, the KKK, Al Qaeda, these people live only to kill other people, they are like rogue cancer cells of society.
Yes I'm calling these people a cancer, because its going to be one of these groups of people, who will take a nano virus and lets say the KKK and Nazis get together, make a nano virus which kills all minorities.
You'll wake up one morning and every non white aryan person will be dead.
The technology is at the point where if we dont evolve, we wont survive another terrorist attack, theres terrorists INSIDE the USA, the KKK and Nazis are INSIDE the USA!!
I'm betting it was one of these groups who sent Antrax, let them get ahold of nano technology!
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First, it's Colombia, not Columbia. It's also one of the most dangerous countries in the world between rebel forces, drug trade, and kidnappers.
EC->ECUADOR
Better than Colombia, but still awfully close to the drug trade. Also has occasional skirmishes with its neighbor, Peru. Doesn't appear on the diagram, but the diagram doesn't give you the whole picture.
kr->Rebublic of Korea
From a military perspective this is one of the most dangerous countries in the world. They only have a million or so troops massed at the North Korea/South Korea border, ready to party.
Far from being a safe place, it's one of the most ripe for a future war.
ve->VENEZUELA
Just had a coup attempt in the last month or so. There are also cross-border rebels that move between Venezuela and Colombia. Drugs is a problem as well.
ph->Philipines
Along with Colombia and Inodonesia, Philipines is one of the current and/or expected new hotbeds for terrorist activity now that their powwow-station in Afghanistan is pretty much toast.
As the author of the material confessed, his analysis doesn't do much to predict wars. He thinks they are random. But, interestingly, the countries you selected as being "safe" are among the most ripe for war these days. Which confirms that the author is right: He proved nothing.
Wars cannot be predicted by math but by logical political analysis.
Too a limited degree, I'd agree -- religious fanaticism is not something that lends itself to negotiation and compromise. As such, theocracies, including de facto theocracies where everything is culturally seen through the eyes of religion, are a fair bit dangerous...
But it's not just religion. Fanaticism comes in various forms, like the few remaining diehard Marxist and Maoist rebel movements scattered around the globe, or the militant wings of racial separatist movements.
Only the dead have seen the end of war.
Humans arent bacteria.
You have ways of dealing with bacteria in the human body.
First you kill the bacteria.(war) Eventually that may cease to work, at this point your body develops immunity to the bacteria (it defends against it) the evolution occurs when the body finds ways to make that bacteria "GOOD" and useful to the human body. (this is the route we should take)
The Human Body even knows not to have war with something forever. It stresses the body (hurts the enviornment), it consumes resouces (money, time, effort), it kills many many cells (lives are lost)
The body has an evolution process, you are saying we shouldnt? we should be in perpetual war even when we have nano technology and biotechnology? The technologies which allow us to control nature?
I'm sorry but the rules HAVE changed. When technology reaches a certain point just like when the body is sick for a certain amount of time, it evolves, this is how we create vaccines!
Vaccines are the cure, you can have a Vaccine for aids, or you can keep taking AZT drug cocktails and wait until its time for you to die from aids.
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Be careful! A lot of people have used similar reasoning to justify violence and killing.
Not to be insulting, but I think you DO need to visit these places before really knowing what you're talking about. I've been to both Colombia and Ecuador and currently live in Mexico (but AM an American!).
Believe me, it is easy to be cynical being an American living in the U.S. and never leaving the country--except maybe to Cancun or a few other tourist destinations in "safe" places of the world.
But when you've lived in one of these "other countries" for 6+ years, believe me, you will miss the petty problems the U.S. has. It really puts things in perspective.
Massive electoral fraud.
You haven't seen electoral fraud until you've been to Mexico--and they're supposedly "improving."
I'm kind of tired of the whole "Bush family election fraud" conspiracy theory. I know it's a bummer your candidate lost by so little, but he did. Get over it. If there had been fraud I think they would have at least stuffed enough ballots to make the win decisive.
(Sarcasm on) I'm sure Bush and the Republicans planned the butterfly ballots perfectly knowing that exactly X number of idiots wouldn't be able to read it and, thus, get GWB elected (sarcasm off).
Millions of people are in prison over drugs, many rights are suspended simply on unfounded suspicion of drug involvement.
Do you have evidence? If they were involved in drugs then I'm glad they are in prison. Sure, there may occasionally be errors. I do not believe there is any law enforcement conspiracy to wrongfully imprison anyone. What would they gain? Come on, they do their job just like the next guy.
Believe me, I'd rather be stopped by any American FBI, State Police or Local police on a dark road in the middle of a field than by their Mexican or Colombian equiavlent. ANY DAY.
The US on average takes military action against a nation at least once every 2 years, and has kept it up since 1990.
Being the last remaining superpower is a bummer sometimes. I think we got involved in a few conflicts that weren't our business while Clinton was in power. But Iraq? Afghanistan? Totally justified and our interests were threatend.
Corporations seem to be able to buy legislation to suit their needs. Many of the largest scandals are closely linked to the administration: Enron, Savings & Loan, etc.
There are some cases of corporations having too much power. They are vocal.
I've said it once and I'll say it again: If corporations or interest groups have too much power it is because WE THE PEOPLE aren't doing our job and keeping our congress-critters on a leash. We have no-one to blame but ourselves.
One of the only "civilized" nations to still have a death penalty
Yeah, it's so much more civilized to throw them in a dungeon and throw away the key... but pay $50k/year to do it.
The US has used and continues to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Nukes, yes.
There's a pretty good chance the Anthrax mailer got his stuff from US labs (the whole story is actually much scarier, if true).
Yeah, he probably did. Does that bother me? No. It bothers me that he hasn't been caught but I really could care less whether he got it in the U.S. or in Afghanistan.
Depleted uranium shells used in the Gulf War by coalition forces are causing cancer in Iraqi civilians even today.
Link/source?
Law enforcement appears to be largely unaccountable.
Visit the countries previously mentioned. Believe me, you'll praise U.S. law enforcement.
Still no straight answer on what down at Waco Texas and why specific other agencies were involved (such as the Delta Force), but the end result is an entire, seemingly harmless community of Christians is dead.
Yeah, a bunch of harmless Christians with heavy artillery. Unless you buy into the whole conspiracy theory that weapons were placed there after the fact. Which would mean the government killed off that sect because.... why exactly??
Terrorist attacks against the nation take place on an almost yearly basis.
Yearly? I remember the original WTC attack. Then Oklahoma, then the final WTC? Did I miss any others?
Much better than, say, Israel that measures their terrorist attacks by the day or week rather than the year.
No public healthcare, which most other "civilized" nations offer.
You refer to the quasi-capitalist European nations with confiscatory levels of taxation?
I agree we ought to do something about health care for those that don't have insurance. I think we can and will. But a national healthcare system for the entire country? No thank you, I'd rather pay.
More than 50% of the nation's budget is allocated to the military.
50%? Please check that number again. Even these guys (that appear to probably be anti-military) only cite 23.7%.
I would invite you, in all seriousness, to live in a foreign country for a few years. Not Canada. Not the UK. A "typical" foreign country such as Mexico. Believe me, you'll more than appreciate what we've got in the U.S. Big time.
A. Its not arrogance to see that by harming no one, you are better for the world than those who harm everyone
Your original quote: "Humans should evolve to my level, or else why should I consider them human? I can consider them animals"
Believing yourself to be superior or more evolved is arrogant and that particular belief of yours is shared with many who have killed and committed genocide. It is one rationalization they use to commit such acts. Dehumanizing the enemy is a standard technique used to prepare soldiers for war. You are delusional to think that you are evolved beyond such people.
B. Pacifism leads to utopia, its the only way to get there, and the goal of every society is to reach this.
Pacifism leads to extinction, pacifists can only survive if non-pacifists protect them. Violence in the name of self defense, not personal gain, leads to a better society.