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The End Of The Innovation Road for CMOS
Elledan writes "According to this EE Times article, CMOS technology (also used to create CPUs with) is getting near the moment when we will no longer be able to create smaller structures with it. With the date for this moment set around 2012 and with no replacement technology in sight, this issue might become a real problem in the near future, as the article explains."
At what point does the performance of computers become "adequate"? Once a technology becomes mature, a slow rate of improvement becomes acceptable. Reliability gets fixed, design improves, niche markets get filled. Internal combustion engines, houses, aircraft, ships, bridges, for all of these the lack of a Moores Law isn't a "problem". Perhaps if Moore's Law finally packs in for computers, we can all stop chasing progress and concentrate on things like social implications, human factors, and software that does something useful.
Panurge has posted for the last time. Thanks for the positive moderations.
How many times have we heard this prediction?
I remember when 200mhz was the end of the road. 'They' always manage
to give us another 10-15 years. It's like drilling for oil.
Besides, while Mhz makes a big difference to speed, design is more important.
Even if we hit this wall, we'd just continue to improve in other areas.
This is a different kind of FUD, but FUD it is.
rhadc
I say this is a good thing. Let the end of CMOS come. It's time for us to move forward. I think this is just the kick in the ass we need to really start focusing on quantum computing. IBM and Fujitsu both have quantum computing research divisions, and I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't quite a few companies out there very quietly working on it. The pressure for faster and better computing will drive us forward. And when the first 64-qubit computer comes rolling down the line, I'm certain Tom's Hardware will be there to tell us how many FPS's we'll be getting in Quake8 with it:
Tom's Hardware: I can definitely say that this thing smokes. Unfortunately, due to quantum uncertainty we weren't able to give you an exact measurement of FPS's. but we can say with some confidence that it's between 189 and Infinity + 2. However, with quad-sampling anti-aliasing on, don't be surprised to see that number drop to Infinity + 1.
Damn, I need to get some sleep.
---- El diablo esta en mis pantalones! Mire, mire!
Chip makers complain because the "CAD Community" isn't coming up with solutions to some of their problems, but University R&D programs are unable to keep up with fabrication standards as the equipment gets more expensive.
Isn't this a problem waiting for a few self-interested chip-makers to whip their wallets in the direction of a few universities?
I work in research at a university, and my PhD project is going to help solve this problem (and others) long before 2012. I can't get into specifics because of disclosure issues. But, understand that already a HUGE amount of work has been done behind the scenes and most other researchers don't yet know of what's to come.
.18um fabs could easily be refitted with strained Si material and compete with the .13um fabs. Actually, it's even better than that--the increases in mobility have been up to 8 times over that of Si.
CMOS isn't going to die. Turns out that we're not limited in the horizontal direction like everyone predicted years ago (remember how lithography was always the big problem?). Instead, it's the vertical direction. Our gates are having to get too thin. SiO2 just doesn't work well with 10A thick layers because of trapped charge and whatnot. Also we can't properly control doping at very shallow levels.
But all that doesn't matter. Strained-Si technology is where it's going. If you're interested, check out AmberWave. It turns out that we can increase the mobility of holes and electrons--so even older
No, CMOS isn't going to die. It's going to change and morph. Just like it has in the past. We don't need a revolution like many engineers are claiming--we simply need evolution. Strained Si is an evolution that will make for revolutions later. Current fabs can just swap out their current Si wafers and get strained Si ones--most everything else in the fab stays the same. Talk about a huge cost savings to boot (no need to rebuild a new fab for billions).
Long, cute, or funny Sigs are just another form of over compensation, used by geeks, nerdz, etc.