Eight Technologies That Will Change the World

lostincyberspace writes "This story looks at existing advanced technologies, and contemplates how they may combine in the future to create the technology of 70's TV shows. Sensors + Mobile Power + Biomanufacturing = ... Bionics. ("We have the technology") The most fascinating part is that all of these new technologies seem like they'll be available in the not too distant future."

Comments

Re:technologies of 70s TV shows?

[garren_bagley]

Hopefully it'll be more advanced than that. That was 60's technology.

Not from TV...

[blankmange]

But a tractor beam would be nice....

Technology previews

[NETHED]

I think it was in the early 30s or 40s that they demonstrated a video phone. Its twenty-o-two, I see no video phones.

How about that molecular manufactering. Sounds like the replicator they had on the Enterprise. Truthfully, I don't see this even being in the lab for decades. Sure, we can theorize about these things that it is possible, but I can also theoretically date Britney Spears, and we ALL know that ANIT gonna happen.

I take these tech preview thingies with many grains of salt.

Re:Technology previews

[White Shade]

Video phones exist and are actually reasonably common, especially in business circumstances. The reason most home users don't see them though is that for the most part the quality is sorely lacking, and they're often way too expensive...

a quick search on google netted me this:
a home videophone...
another home video phone...
and, for what appears to be the prevailing standard: h.232

molecular manufacturing is a bit of a different story, but:
a group devoted to molecular manufacturing
some interesting stuff on it
and, last but not least:
IBM does some cool stuff sometimes

hope this helps dispel your mistrust of tech previews (Although i'll admit that at least a grain or two of salt is warranted in many occasions)

Re:Technology previews

[flewp]

I don't want a video phone. Ever. Well, maybe, if I can turn off the camera that's recording me. I don't want people to call in the morning before I've gotten up. Or what if you just got out of the shower. Sorry, can't think of any better examples, but you get the idea.

Re:Technology previews

[MSBob]

I see a lot of people replying that there is no market for a videopohone. Video phones make sense but only in a limited number of scenarios.

While it's true that most people don't want to be seen when talking on the phone. It only makes sense for folks like me who want to be seen and see their families who are 5000 miles away. I am in the market for a long distance videophone. Webcams do the trick but the quality is definitely not there yet.

There is a market for videphones but it's not for short distance/local calls. You probably want to videoconference with someone you haven't seen for three years but video-talking to someone you saw last night really doesn't make much sense.

Cognitronics

[IxnayOnTheIxnay]

This tech will allow people to "drive a car simply by thinking about doing so" Of course, thinking about driving will be an entirely new skill, now only inherent in about 10% of the population.

Not so distant future?

[juliao]

The way the article is written , it seems that most of this is just around the corner. But so is cold fusion, and has been, for a number of yeras now. [/sarcasm]
One of the ideas that attract me the most, "cognitronics", as they call them, is reportedly based upon sensors, advanced analytics and smart materials. And none of those will be sufficiently advanced in the next 10 years to allow for any kind of practical widescale use.

Number Nine: Weird Science

[delphi125]

Dildonics

The big idea:

Providing pleasurable massage sensations without using hands, in the privacy of one's own home.

Image of three intersecting circles, labeled 'Internet connectivity', 'AI', 'ultra-delicate tactile stimulators'

The challenge:

There are two major issues still to be solved: making sure the electrical parts don't get wet and sticky, and hiding the gadgets from the unsuspecting parents.

(I hope I didn't use any naughty words there!)

Re:Number Nine: Weird Science

[spazimodo]

done and done: www.bespattered.net/suk2300.html

Right!

[mjh]

The most fascinating part is that all of these new technologies seem like they'll be available in the not too distant future.

Right. Which is exactly what they thought in the 70's, too, hence the TV shows.

The Companion Piece

[donnacha]

The companion piece to this article, Untangling the Future, is also pretty interesting.

Six Million Dollars?

[tshoppa]

But is it worth paying six million dollars of taxpayer money for this?

:-). I'm sure that sounded like a large sum of money in the 1970's, but today it's a drop in the bucket compared to other military projects.

Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to work

[Seth Finkelstein]

I'm always skeptical of any gee-whiz predictions of the future. They tend to have a bad track record , e.g :

The future isn't what it used to be. Take Tomorrowland. When it opened in 1955 as one of the five original sections of Disneyland, Walt Disney himself appeared on the live opening-day telecast and promised "a step into the future with constructive predictions about things to come." He may have been a dull public speaker, but in envisioning "the world of 1987," as it was at one point conceived, he did offer up such astounding attractions as TWA's Rocket to the Moon and Monsanto's all-plastic House of the Future ("Hardly a natural material appears anywhere"). We now know that people still live in wood and brick houses; and that even if TWA did fly to the moon, no one would go because the service would be ghastly; and that if Disney could have given 1950s parkgoers a genuine look at the future, the most amazing thing about 1987 would have been the presidency of Ronald Reagan, ...

Where's my flying car?

But then again, we do have Soma, err, Slashdot :-)

Sig: What Happened To The Censorware Project (censorware.org)

Power Sources?

[TheNecromancer]

Seems to me that this technology is limited, not by what it can do, but by the energy it consumes performing its function. Think about it, the SmartShirt that is talked about has electronics embedded in the fabric, but how is it powered? Current batteries in PDAs don't last very long, and it would be easy enough to replace batteries in the SmartShirt, but what about replacing power cells of electronics embedded in a person's skin? Once we are able to miniaturize powercells enough without sacrificing longevity of power, this field will thrive enormously!

Re:Power Sources?

[Jodrell]

The rate of innovation of portable power sources is a lot slower than in the technologies that depend on them, for a number of reasons - mainly due to the fact that after a century or so of development we're reaching the theoretical limits of the current technology.

This issue was discussed recently following an article on CNN (that's disappeared, unfortunately).

Too late

[anpe]

The most fascinating part is that all of these new technologies seem like they'll be available in the not too distant future.

Sure.
"The height technologies that will change the world once you'll be in the grave" sounds less attractive.

Re:Future Soldiers

[HiQ]

Pwaaah, well our soldiers will be manufactured from the ground up from carbon nanotubes, assembled by our Lego Quantum Storms (tm) molecular building set, and they will run on biodiesel, or even on a quantum nucleonic fuell cell. They will all be linked in on big matrix by our new cognitronic network. So where will your soldiers be then, huh?

Not just 70's TV shows...

[Innominate Recreant]

How about 90's TV shows? The human/computer topic seemed to be limited to mobility. What about sight? A Geordi visor from ST:TNG would be a valuable invention and a really cool integration of computer technology with the human brain.

Business 2.0 Front Cover

[donnacha]

With regard to the front cover's question, overlayed on possibly the smuggest Bill Gates photo I've ever seen:

"How To Beat Him"

I'm hoping that the answer boils down to "with a large wooden bat, spiked with rusty nails".

Re:technologies of 70s TV shows?

[BLAMM!]

Where's my flying egg?

Don't drool, beware! (The Luddite approach)

[juliao]

All of them seem like great things to happen! But are they? Let's take a look...

Biointeractive Material: An idea with a lot of potential, and that may see light sooner than we think. The risk here is reverse interaction, that may allow your shirt to be hacked into heating just a bit too much...

Biofuel Production Plants: They mention the risks themselves: using bio-engineered plants for fuel production may create mutated species that grow beyond our control. And on another issue, growing GMO for fuel will legitimise using GMO for food, won't it?

Bionics: A wonderful potential, but so many risks: yes, it can be use to cure the deaf, and the blind, but as you go on it allows you to replace organs, even to enhance them, and in due time it will allow you to slowly become a bit like a cyborg. It sounds great to me, but maybe it will create even a greater divide between the "have"s and the "have not"s. Will humanity (the poor of the world, their strenght being the numbers) rebel against the cyborgs (the bionic we) someday?

Cognitronics: The greatest of all greats, but... If ir can control, can it be controlled? If it interacts, can you read my mind? It kind of redefines the notion of "0wn3d"...

Genotyping: Hmmm... What was this one good for, again? Too much potential for the wrong things happening...

Combinatorial Science: Wow! At last, a way for the government to find all about life, the universe and everything without having to bother with those pesky scientists and their silly notions of "moral" and "ethics"...! Anyway, anything that is comparable to Excel has to be a bad thing. :)

Molecular Manufacturing: One of the coolest technologies ever. And yet, a great potential for being abused. This effectively removes the limit of scale on anything we build, be it large or small. But the planet isn't large enough for us to start building our private megalopolis and robot armies anytime soon. This had better come true after generalized space travel and colonization.

Quantum Nucleonics: Hmmm.. Boom?

Re:Don't drool, beware! (The Luddite approach)

[Fesh]

"Molecular Manufacturing: One of the coolest technologies ever. And yet, a great potential for being abused.This effectively removes the limit of scale on anything we build, be it large or small."

You cover the large bit. The small bit is that anyone can create a large batch of any chemical compound at will as long as they have the raw ingredients. Suddenly instead of kids bringing guns to school, they've got a jar of VX in their bookbags.

You're absolutely right. We ought to be thinking about the risks as well as the benefits on these.

cognitronics - dangerous?

[Sarin]

You could turn lights on and off, mute the TV, or drive a car simply by thinking about doing so.

Sounds dangerous to me, you have to be carefull what you think instead of being carefull what you do, escpecially when these devices have lethal uses, like a car.
What if you bionic arm would act on your impulsive first toughts after being annoyed or arroused by someone.Instead of pulling your middle finger to another roaduser, the car might try to hit this person.

Thinking is not a crime might not be true in such a future.

Re:cognitronics - dangerous?

[Thornae]

Very true - and naturally, David Brin has already written about this. He describes a computer interface called a subvocaliser, which reads your unspoken pre-speech impulses in the larynx before they actually get to the word stage, and is the nearest thing to a direct brain interface you can get.

From my well-thumbed copy of Earth:

"Even the tiniest signal to her jaw or larynx might be interpreted as a command... Few people used subvocals, for the same reason few ever became street jugglers. Not many could operate the delicate systems without tipping into chaos. Any normal mind kept intruding with apparent irrelevancies, many ascending to the level of muttered or almost-spoken words the outer consciousness hardly noticed, but which the device manifested visibly and in sound.
... When invented, the subvocal had been hailed as a boon to pilots - until high-performance jets began plowing into the ground. We experience ten thousand impulses for every one we allow to become action. Accelerating the choice and decision process did more than speed reaction time. It also shortcut judgement.
...If they ever really developed a true brain-to-computer interface, the chaos would be even worse.
... Imagine giving a machine like this to young, libidinous, hormone-drenched male pilots! Of all the silly things to do."

Written in 1988, set in 2038, Earth is probably the best 50 year prediction of the future I've ever read. Brin actually extrapolated from the state of usenet at the time of writing to predict something that looks very much like our present www (only with more discussion and less ads. He was out by about 45 years there...).

While much of the novel may well turn out to be inaccurate, and (much to my concern) overly optimistic, it covers many issues that are just beginning to be recognized as important - privacy, globalization, eco-crimes, and so-on. I'm convinced that his "Sea State" - a floating, multi-boat/raft 'nation' of asylum seekers and the like - is only a matter of time (no, Stephenson wasn't first with this idea - although Brin probably wasn't either).

Of course, the subvocaliser is the nearest Brin actually gets to any of the above-mentioned eight. Instead, there's a heavy focus on Gaia theory - very popular at the time of writing. He also invents a new branch of gravitational science, which I won't spoil for you by expanding upon.

Finally, the book has an excellent postscript in which Brin discusses his basis for many of his extrapolations, and issues he considers likely to arise in the next few decades. Those wanting some entertainment along with their speculation upon the next thirty-six years could do far worse than chasing up a copy of Earth.

(My, that wandered a bit. But it's all relevant. Honest.)

Re:Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to wor

[CaffeineAddict2001]

I think someone in 1957 would be pretty impressed with home computers, cell phones, big screen TV's, VCR's, etc...

"Quantum Nucleonics"???

[wowbagger]

Halfnium amplifying X-Rays "exponentially"?? OK, I realize that this is a e-mag for PHB's, but come on - that reads like something straight out of Star Trek: "I know - we'll use a sheet of halfnium to amplify the X-Rays exponentially" "Shut up, Wesley" (no offense intended, CleverNickName...) Ignoring the fact that "exponentially" makes no sense in this context (after all, .9^n 1, you cannot define this without stating your units), but more importantly the energy must come from somewhere - either you are causing fission or some other form of decay in the halfnium, or you aren't getting any more energy out than you put in.

Secondly, did anyone else feel like they were reading the Great Library from any of the Civilization games - "Domestication + Iron working = Stirrup" "Bio-informatics + Genetics = Enhanced crops"?

I agree - the tech of the future will come about as combinations of what we have: I'm far too big a fan of James Burke to dispute that. But this article was "a crock of excrement, and none may abide the odor thereof".

Re:Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to wor

[Anne_Nonymous]

Agreed. Plus, this sounds like some bad Cosmo article headline:

Eight Technologies That Will Change the World
Eight Makeup Tricks to Make You Look Thinner
Eight Ways to Keep Your Man Interested
Eight Hot Looks for Summer

Interesting theme.

[Junta]

Not too long ago, the top list of techs that would change the world were typically all about computers and the internet, focusing on how people interact with each other and get information. The big internet bubble kinda grew out of this whole excitement over computer and internet technology as an end in and of itself rather than a means to another end.

Now it seems like the general populace have tired of thinking of computers and the internet as they did before. This lack of interest and the recession have fed each other to a downward spiral. It seems that now the populace is getting more excited about biotech things, as reflected in this article. e-everything and fast communications got boring, but now people see biotech as having the potential for enhancing and extending life in a very real and pervasive way.

So are we about to see a "biotech" bubble like the "internet" bubble we saw in the past few years? Are bio-engineering, genetics, and biology programs about to reach record high enrollments like computer science and engineering programs saw a few years ago (when the general populace thought computer knowledge = big bucks).

Anyway, though boring to the public in general, botany research could have great impact on our lives. Things like spider silk and insulin from plants, as well as enhancing foods to feed more people could offer further reaching impact than anything mentioned in the article, in terms of reaching third world countries, for example. It's pretty exciting. Before long, they expect to be able to produce enough insulin to supply all the world's diabetic population in a few farms. Pretty cool stuff, just hope this stuff doesn't get lost in the noise of "bionic man" super-hyped research.

many grains of salt

[stego]

unless by date you mean 'frantically and repeatedly masturbate to'...

Technology increase

[Kushana]

The Venn diagrams of the article remind me of the pretty pictures I see whenever I get a new technology in Alpha Centauri or Civilization. How long do I have to wait for Matter Transmission?

Re:technologies of 70s TV shows?

[Darth RadaR]

According to this, we've had this technology for the past 3 years.
:)

Re:Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to wor

[Untimely Ripp'd]

We now know that people still live in wood and brick houses

Well, yes, but ... Your kitchen cabinets and most of your cheap, assemble-it-yourself furniture are made of particle board (wood fibers glued together in a plastic matrix). Your countertops are particle board and formica if you're a working joe, and Corian if you're a yuppie. Your subfloor -- and your roof sheeting -- are Oriented StrandBoard (wood fibers glued together in a plastic matrix). Your floor is probably "tiled" with either polyurethane or vinyl, and carpeted with recycled polyester. Your exterior walls have an OSB layer (if you're lucky), a polystyrene insulating layer, and more probably vinyl than brick to face the elements. Your bathtub is either acrylic or fiberglass (silica fibers in a polyester matrix). Your deck is quite likely to be either sheathed in plastic, or simply made of plastic. Your couch is upholstered with polyurethane foam covered with polyester fabric. Your patio furniture is, of course, resin (plastic). Your LOTR chess set is resin (plastic). etc.

No they won't

[r_j_prahad]

They won't change a damn thing, they'll never even get a chance to, because they'll all violate either the DMCA, the CBDTPA, a EULA, somebody's Terms of Service Agreement, UCITA, a patent, the Bern Convention, the Patriot Act, or some as yet unknown restrictive legislation yet to be enacted.

The technology future for the U.S. was yesterday. It's all over, man. We're rushing headlong into third-world status at breakneck speed and there's nobody out there to stop us.

Re:technologies of 70s TV shows?

[sharkey]

transporters and communicators?

No, hair products that will keep your mutton-chops, afro, handle-bar, etc. picture perfect even after mixing it up with Cylons, Motown-ninjas or mutants from the sewer.

Re:Future Soldiers

[Skevin]

Made of carbon nanotubes?

Well, what's going to happen if you want to snap a picture of them?


Solomon

Re:technologies of 70s TV shows?

[Tablizer]

Where's my flying egg?

Sunny-side-up on I-80.