Posted by
CmdrTaco
on from the insert-beowulf-cluster-joke-here dept.
ringbarer writes "BBC News are reporting a recent Gartner Dataquest statement that over one billion PCs have been sold worldwide. What's even more impressive is that this figure is set to double by as early as 2008."
Yes, abillion served
by
Ass-Gas-Istan
·
· Score: 4, Insightful
But computers these days are almost a disposable item. A PC I bought in 1998 is on the verge of obsolescence, only 4 years later. Much new software is made for the processor (233 MHz Pentium) or higher. Any further power needs, and my PC won't be able to handle the software. Either I must upgrade it or replace it. And replacing means an artifially high number sold, IMHO.
Other consumer electronics like TV's and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy.
What matters more is what percentage of the units are still running today.
doubling by 2008?
by
iritant
·
· Score: 3, Insightful
I'd normally believe that number, given that large numbers of people have NO computers, and those who do will probably go through at least two others between now and then, given planned obsolesence.
On the other hand, since the number did come from Gartner, I'd be inclined to disbelieve it on those grounds alone. These are the same people who told me in 1992 that ATM would take over the LAN market by 1994. Anyone remember LANE?
Re:Stop the press!
by
cperciva
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· Score: 4, Insightful
That's not really surprising: 90% of the population of the world has never seen a PC.
Not true. The US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Sweeden, Norway, Finland, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong together constitute 14% of the world's population; I would be quite surprised if any of those countries had seen-a-PC rates below 95%, let alone 70%. Then, of course, there are all the people in countries like India -- sure, many of them will have never seen a PC, but many will.
It is possible that a majority of the world's population has never seen a PC, but the rate is certainly nowhere near 90%.
How many did Microsoft buy?
by
HanzoSan
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· Score: 3, Insightful
Considering all the PCs they have most likely get infected by Virii, and how Microsoft has 40 billion in cash sitting in the bank.
I'm Sure Microsoft has purchased hundreds of thousands, add in all of the other big companies and you get millions, add in schools and colleges along with government and you get hundreds of millions
-- If you use Linux, please help development ofAutopac
As others have pointed out, that was Watson of IBM. Given we're talking 1943, it's not as absurd as this one (my personal favorite):
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977
-- Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
Re:Six years to double???
by
markmoss
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· Score: 3, Insightful
No, that would only be the case if there were a billion working computers that might be replaced in the next 6 years.
But then Gartner is also expecting PC's to finally get out into the rest of the world. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to get to the real data, just their short announcement... As fast as the PC market has been growing in the last few years, I'd expect at least 1/3 of all the PC's to still be in use somewhere, and most of those will be replaced TWICE by 2008. That doesn't leave a whole lot out of the two billion for exponential growth of PC's in the less wealthy countries.
So it seems to me that either they're misquoting Gartner (entirely possible), or Gartner's estimate is actually rather on the pessimistic side. Of course, it's entirely possible that it's accurate - it's getting harder and harder to find real reasons to keep on replacing PC's all the time, and I think to reach much wider of a market PC's must become cheaper in third world countries and easier to use for Americans. (And maybe the third-world market is going to consist of our discarded 100-233MHz machines running Linux, which will suck for PC manufacturers and MS...)
Re:What about Macs, not just PCs?
by
Alrescha
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· Score: 2, Insightful
"PC:= Personal Computer"
You can bang your fist and stamp your feet, and attempt to be as pedantic as possible, but you won't change the reality. PC is short for IBM PC which today means some compatible clone of that machine.
As was driven home to me in 1981, PC, as relates to computers, has never meant *just* 'personal computer'.
Slashdot Mirror
But computers these days are almost a disposable item. A PC I bought in 1998 is on the verge of obsolescence, only 4 years later. Much new software is made for the processor (233 MHz Pentium) or higher. Any further power needs, and my PC won't be able to handle the software. Either I must upgrade it or replace it. And replacing means an artifially high number sold, IMHO.
Other consumer electronics like TV's and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy.
What matters more is what percentage of the units are still running today.
I'd normally believe that number, given that large numbers of people have NO computers, and those who do will probably go through at least two others between now and then, given planned obsolesence.
On the other hand, since the number did come from Gartner, I'd be inclined to disbelieve it on those grounds alone. These are the same people who told me in 1992 that ATM would take over the LAN market by 1994. Anyone remember LANE?
That's not really surprising: 90% of the population of the world has never seen a PC.
Not true. The US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Sweeden, Norway, Finland, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong together constitute 14% of the world's population; I would be quite surprised if any of those countries had seen-a-PC rates below 95%, let alone 70%. Then, of course, there are all the people in countries like India -- sure, many of them will have never seen a PC, but many will.
It is possible that a majority of the world's population has never seen a PC, but the rate is certainly nowhere near 90%.
Tarsnap: Online backups for the truly paranoid
Considering all the PCs they have most likely get infected by Virii, and how Microsoft has 40 billion in cash sitting in the bank.
I'm Sure Microsoft has purchased hundreds of thousands, add in all of the other big companies and you get millions, add in schools and colleges along with government and you get hundreds of millions
If you use Linux, please help development of Autopac
As others have pointed out, that was Watson of IBM. Given we're talking 1943, it's not as absurd as this one (my personal favorite):
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977
Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
No, that would only be the case if there were a billion working computers that might be replaced in the next 6 years.
But then Gartner is also expecting PC's to finally get out into the rest of the world. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to get to the real data, just their short announcement... As fast as the PC market has been growing in the last few years, I'd expect at least 1/3 of all the PC's to still be in use somewhere, and most of those will be replaced TWICE by 2008. That doesn't leave a whole lot out of the two billion for exponential growth of PC's in the less wealthy countries.
So it seems to me that either they're misquoting Gartner (entirely possible), or Gartner's estimate is actually rather on the pessimistic side. Of course, it's entirely possible that it's accurate - it's getting harder and harder to find real reasons to keep on replacing PC's all the time, and I think to reach much wider of a market PC's must become cheaper in third world countries and easier to use for Americans. (And maybe the third-world market is going to consist of our discarded 100-233MHz machines running Linux, which will suck for PC manufacturers and MS...)
"PC := Personal Computer"
You can bang your fist and stamp your feet, and attempt to be as pedantic as possible, but you won't change the reality. PC is short for IBM PC which today means some compatible clone of that machine.
As was driven home to me in 1981, PC, as relates to computers, has never meant *just* 'personal computer'.
A.
...bringing you cynical quips since 1998