The Tangled Web Of Fiber Optics Lines & Gates
sdirector writes "Monday, super investor Warren Buffett jolted the nearly prostrate telecom industry by leading an investment of $500 million in Level 3 Communications ... Buffett's investment could set in motion a complex web of relationships and -- if you play it all out in just the right way -- put Bill Gates in charge of every fiber-optic line in the USA." The actual article itself is pretty interesting reading. Update: 07/12 08AM GMT by C :The link was broken, it has now been fixed. Sorry about that.
Housed up @ Kaufmann.. This one's for you, brotha .
-- insomniac --
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Wipe your bloody dick on her teddy bear..
See here
So I'm a pervert. Welcome to the Internet.
Now the whole internet can get BSODed when the routers running the network crash.
Friends don't let friends use multiple inheritance.
See subject.
what a link
Edit the article. The URL is bad and points to Slashdot.
Story I submitted that got rejected follows. That slashdot refuses to carry this story tells me that the people who run it have sold their souls. My karma here is worthless.
The New York Times tells us (after we register for free) that Gnutella developer Gene Kan has committed suicide. Let's see, he was young (25) and just over a year ago saw the company he started bought by Sun Microsystems. It would be wrong to jump to conclusions here. It would also be wrong to not start asking questions. Update: 07/11 23:45 GMT by corebreech: Missed this before, but news of his death was withheld until after the body was cremated.
Additional links:
CNN story
San Jose Mercury News stories: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
Kan's web log
JXTA
Free Republic discussion on Gene Kan
Google search
Is this truly the only Earth I can live on?
slashdot sucks
jamie can't code
the new karma system sucks
page widening is back, because slashdot doesn't support ie
all the editors are fags
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Three midgets were sitting on a couch one day. One had the smallest hands in the world, one with the smallest feet in the world, and one with the smallest dick in the world.
They all started talking and wanted to prove their characteristics. So they decided to travel to the Guinness World Records Building. They all sat in the lobby and the first midget goes in. Five minutes later he comes out and says, "It's official! I have the smallest hands in the world!"
The second one goes into the office. He comes out five minutes later and in pure excitement he shouts, "It's official, I have the smallest feet in the world!"
So then the third one goes into the office. Five minutes go by, and even ten minutes goes by. When fifteen minutes has passed, the third midget comes storming out and says, "Who in the hell is Rob Malda!?!?!"
The link is in error. Could the author please post the correct one?
Here's the fixed link. The submitter didn't code the HTML correctly.
Huzzah for proofreading!
url is supposed to be url
Death to all Lunix fags and GNU knobbers.
Lady goes to see her doctor
Lady: Doc, you are giving me the wrong hormone prescription.
Doctor: No way, it is the right dosage.
Lady: But Doc, I have hair growing out of my chest.
Doctor: I have been doing this for 20 years, you are getting the right dosage. But let me ask you, how far down is the hair?
Lady: It's all the way down to my dick
Credits: on by
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here
Please mod me down if an editor corrects it.
On a related note, how much do you think information-technology.com's worth?
Why can't Stevie Wonder read?
Because he's black.
Are you sure you included a URL?
Didja test them for typos?
Sorry, that was too tempting...
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A: Getting the blood off of your clown shoes.
whats the difference between a truckload of bricks and a truckload of babies?
bricks dont scream when you shovel them with a pitchfork.
I wonder how a major screwup in the HTML like that got through. Maybe it's because the EDITORS DON'T READ THE STORIES BEFORE PUTTING THEM ON THE FRONT PAGE? Nah, couldn't be. Probably just a supernatural screw up - act of God/CmdrTaco sort of thing. :)
using namespace slashdot;
troll::post();
Q:What's the best part about having sex with 8 year olds?
A: When the pictures come back your dick looks huge!
After reading that article, I must say there's some pretty strange possibilities. It seems silly to think of Bill Gates owning the entire telecom industry, but with the way things are now, the author's little prediction of the future may very well come true. And we'd all be in deep shit then.
using namespace slashdot;
troll::post();
Q: What's the best thing about fucking a 9 year old girl?
A: Flip her over, you can pretend she's a 9 year old boy.
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A woman is giving birth when she hears a SNAP. She frantically asks the doctor "What was that?" The doctor says that the baby broke its arm but that they can fix it when it comes out. The woman, reassured, starts to push again. SNAP. "Oh, don't worry. The baby broke it's leg, but we can fix it when it's out." When the baby finally comes out, the doctor dropkicks it in the head, throws it against the wall and stomps on the body. The woman screams "What are you doing? That's my baby!" The doctor replies "April fools! The baby was already dead!"
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He's trying to get $65k+ and he's worried about the $15 transfer fee?
What's black and blue and hates sex?
The ten year old locked in my basement.
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i love the part about just dismissing at&t at all... yeah ok... whatever... this is fantasy...
....................
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The author is really reaching here. Such a deal would never make it past the regulators without selling off large portions of the network. Of course, GWB could always decide that such regulations are un-American, and tell his people to look the other way, but that is not likely considering the lack of trust that most US citizens have for corporations these days.
Additionally, Warren Buffett never buys into a company with plans to turn around and sell it; he's almost always in for the long haul. Still, Buffett has always stayed away from tech stocks in the past, so maybe he's turning over a new leaf.
"Any fool can make a rule, and any fool will mind it."
--Henry David Thoreau
From the Net-Nexus Seoul article - will Bill G focus on pushing content over the pipes, requiring DRM, or will it be interactive person to person applications?
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+1, informative
So I'm a pervert. Welcome to the Internet.
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Taco has been "gotten to." He wouldn't dare post the story now, lest he have an "accident."
Which is kind of scary. Especially as mr Gates has the money to make that bid mentioned in the last paragraph, and apparently the goodwill-between-friends to make the offer stick. And of course he's shown that he's the kind of man who likes non-competetive markets (read: monopolies). And even more bothersome is that KPNQwest also has lotsa cable running through Europe...and I thought I was safe here :(
What's funny though is the bit about mr Gates telling the three friends all about this internet thing...yup, the same mr Gates who ignored the browser market because he saw no future in that internet thingy...
Now if only he'd had the same attitude about OS', back in the day...
-- Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
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What's the worst part of having sex with a vegetable?
Getting them back in the wheelchair.
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What does 90 year old pussy taste like?
Depends.
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You could have put it in your journal and a link in your sig, and avoided Karma loss and being banned from moderation for life. All respondents to this will be blacklisted as well as those who moderated it up. I just hope I'm not included for trying to give you this heads up, even though I'm doing it AC. Prepare for oblivion.
Story: a few people own a lot of fiber. Gates could offer them money for this fiber and then he owns it.
Ok the article (thanks to earlier posters for the correct url, do they ever check their html?) is interesting enough. But to say that buffet investing in telecoms means he will sell it to gates at the first opportunity is a bit of a long shot
- We are the slashdot. Resistance is futile. Prepare to be moderated -
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If you don't like which stories /. covers, then start your own site.
Quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit, occidentis telum est
Obviously, the slashdot crowd is anti-gates. We all imagine Gates reaching into our pocketbooks with Montgomery-Burns-like limp-wristed glee. It would cost the end user a lot of money - that's what monopolies are about.
I gotta figure that close a marriage of "the network IS the computer" would produce some interesting output, however. Yeah, yeah, so online free music would go away. For this discussion nobody cares about online content delivery. It's old news everybody talks about.
What kind of wacky new tech would something like this spawn? In Gates' mind is echoing the quote from the "Net-Nexus Seoul" article: "(We) wanted to focus on interaction. And what is more interactive than games? We made this market. We made new sectors. American media companies were just using online capacity to distribute offline media."
Gotta wonder what we'll see. Something has gotta make us give gates that nickle and get the 666 tattooed on our arms...
Adam
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Note to all Readers: As of now all your postings are moderated by Bill Gates, owner of the internet in the US.
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My karma is "Terrible"!!! WTF?
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This sounds more likely. Buffett decided the stock was undervalued after the beating it's taken lately and a good longterm investment. A Hack writter noticed Buffett's investment and wanted to grab page hits for the online version of the story, so he invented some half ass conspircy to attract the paranoid.
Quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit, occidentis telum est
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The telecommunications industry is definitely ripe for consolidation. There is just too much bandwidth and too much telecom competition for any company to be very profitable. The article predicts that L3, with Warren Buffett's investment, will buy up the assets of WorldCom and Qwest to consolidate their customer bases, reduce costs, and lower competition. Since Gates has a relationship with Buffett, and current investments in L3 and WorldCom assets, he will be in a powerful position in the telecom industry after the mergers go through. But he'll still only own about 5-10% of L3. Then the article goes completely off a limb and states:
Gates could approach Buffett to buy it all. Gates would own the Internet.
This is stupid. If Gates (or probably Microsoft) wanted to own telecom, he could just buy it now at lower prices. He has enough money to buy L3, Qwest and WorldCom now. Why would he wait for consolidation to occur, the market to improve, and the price of these companies to probably triple?
Sure, Gates could own the infrastructure. But if he was still interested in infrastructure, why did he stop investing in MSN? Over the past few years Microsoft has abandoned most of its infrastructure projects and focused once again on software. And the Qwest/L3 investments are years old, back when MS cared about MSN.
Saying that Gates is trying to buy the telecom industry is just flamebait. There's nothing recent to suggest that he's trying to do that.
my blog
From the American perspective it does not take an evil conspiracy to explain why providers would prefer the Internet to be used to deliver content not interactivity. If there is a market it is likely considering the American culture that this is the best way to make money by satisfying consumer demand. Americans with money will have relatively big houses and the willingness to spend thousands of dollars on home entertainment systems. In the past decade American consumers have shown they are willing to purchase billions in content in the form of DVDs. In the US at least it is not considered shameful to spend whatever free hours one has on self-emersed isolated personal entertainment, and there is a strong psychological demand for such entertainment.
The fly in the ointment is simply the classic analysis by Tanenbaum that one should not underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon transporting tapes down the highway. That is, if one can ignore latency of 12 hours, there is no bandwith advantage to the Internet when it comes to delivering content. In the US at least it is very easy for the lone commuter in an automobile to stop by the store on the way home to pick up a DVD. Unless the Federal Government were to launch a program on the scale of the building of the Interstate highway system to close the last mile gap with fiber, something that will not happen, the average US consumer will suffer less latency from just dropping by the local store versus waiting for content to be downloaded. The current cable/DSL piddly bandwidth relative to what DVD quality content demands simply can't cut it.
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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell, 1984
Human logic: 1) I can't so you mustn't. 2) I can but you mustn't.
We never learn i guess. This monoply will again lead to antitrust cases mebbe 10 yesrs from now.. and by then, the states may be powerless to stop anything
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Possible the most overkill i have ever seen, but still fucking funny.
Script Kiddies would be proud!
Good job I'm not in the office or I'd have to explain what was so funny.
If Bill Gates owned every single piece of fiber in the US, it's definately a step in that direction. Perhaps even the only thing preventing a standards change now.
You can find the article here:. html
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20010802
/^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
I watched the price jump by $10 a share 2 weeks ago when my gramps bought the stock, maybe I should listen to him instead of buffet.
Did I miss something? Where in the article does it say that Gates sitll has shares in WorldComm?
He "apparently" sold his 15% stake in WorldComm.
BillG is to competition what food is to a fat babe. He craves it...Err destroying it.
The simple obvious reason that gates doesn't want to directly own telcom companies is his company is built on high margin intellectual capital they barely support. Why go mucking that up and have a giant arm of the company with tons of physical assets, support issues, and real complications. It's just not necessary for how he wants to run the show. It's a software company, not a hardware company.
Communications will be all about wireless.
Let's look at the 802.11x market: the little local guys who used to pull Cat 5 for companies are probably sufferring, because a lot of companies are moving to 802.11x.
Wireless home networks (and public ones, such as at Starbuck's or public parks) are ruining the chances of the major equipment manufacturers to move their existing product lines into homes.
Those same networks are causing broadband providers to fuss about "bandwidth sharing" as if it were a capital offense.
Every week new technologies are announced that extend the reach (and reliability) of wireless networks. Five years ago, only the adventurous would connect a corporate campus using only wireless. Now wireless MANs can connect an entire city.
Let's take another wireless technology, that which makes cellphones possible. AT&T, the grandfather of modern telecommunications, is practically out of the long-distance market. It's wireless division has been going gangbusters for the last 5 years. That means AT&T, who built most of the land-lines in the world, including the last mile to most homes, is still making great money, but not off those decades of investment in cabling.
Oh, one more: we live in a security conscious world. Fear of weak physical infrastructure means the US Government (and military) is continualy looking for ways to remove single points of failure from essential public or strategic infrastructure.
Add it all up? Investment in physical telecom infrastructure is sure loser in the long-term. If Gates wants to "own" the land-lines, so be it. With the continued growth (and interest) in wireless technology, using wires to connect people and machines will become old-fashioned and a specialty need. One can cut a trunk cable to block communications, but you have to be good to block every wireless communication technology under the sun.
Sure, all that investment in last mile cabling and undersea pathways and trans-national networks won't rot overnight. There may always be a need for such networks, but only as a specialty. As time goes on, the need or such networks will be reduced, as the continued evolution of cheap, effective wireless technology makes all of it seem antiquated.
So even if I was paranoid enough to believe Bill Gates could pull off such a feat as owning the Internet (how many billion in cash does Microsoft have right now?), it may not matter for very long.
Gee,that explains the problems I lived on broadcast.yahoo.com with Opera... Oh it can't be true? I mean, they completely ignore Opera browser (unknown browser) on their so called "media wizard" or something... also,wait... They select windows media by default, even if you have latest realplayer installed... Most cool of all, while all this stupidness and browser discrimination happens (note,exprienced guys, starting from Opera 6,it supports liveconnect), I see a single tiny logo... "Level3 enabled"
I don't want to believe all my unanswered feedback, stupid replies like "no it doesn't support" while watching videos etc on other places like CNN, doesn't happen just because of that tiny logo and its partner or something?
Can't be that simple? or?
Its a sad story, its something not explained by family and Slashdot takes my respect for not publishing it.
Also, seeing morons like you trying to run "another slashdot" via messages(as the guy on thread cleverly pointed) makes me sick and also more sure it was a good thing not to cover it via Slashdot.
Snow Crash here we come.
-Mark
Gates could approach Buffett to buy it all. Gates would own the Internet.
Huh?
What a ridiculous conclusion. By the article's author's reasoning Martians could land on earth as well. Atlantis could be found. Pigs could fly. The article was completely tangential to his conclusion and did not support it in the least.
While this would be unlikely behavior for Gates, it's even less likely for Buffett.
His strategy is based on taking a very long-term view. Generally, when he buys stock (or the company, outright) he intends to hold on to it "forever." Why would he go ahead and sell this company he just invested in - to make a quick buck? Not his style at all.
Let's look at the 802.11x market: the little local guys who used to pull Cat 5 for companies are probably sufferring, because a lot of companies are moving to 802.11x.
Uhm...right. Wireless can't get me 100Mbps or 1000Mbps like cat5/fiber can. Until then, wireless is best suited to PDAs and laptops. At my house, the desktops are all cabled while my laptop and Zaurus are on 802.11. At work, there is some wireless, but security issues have everyone looking for a better solution. The cable pullers are still very much in business here, and I don't think they will be fearing for teir jobs for quite a while.
have to do with Bill Gates?
They aren't the same person, are they? Or is it Michael/Latoya/Bill/Warren split personality?
The two are so different it isn't even funny.
It boggles the imagination. Buffet doesn't tend to invest in companies to make money simply on the stock trade. He tends to buy things (businesses) to make them profitable, and profit off the business more than the stock.
Bill has MS, and then a huge stock portfolio. He doesn't really run other businesses.
Just glancing at the title I thought it had something to do with rivalry between Linux Torvalds and Bill Gates.
Meh.
They should both take a lesson from the real Buffett -- Jimmy and get wasted away in margaritaville!!
Great Linux Site
NICE FLAME!!!!
"That is, if one can ignore latency of 12 hours..."
You must not be an American. I start climbing the walls if my pizza takes longer than 20 minutes.
Talisman
"Study your math, kids. Key to the universe." -The Archangel Gabriel
I'll give you a quarter for it.
Since Level 3 Communications is trading at $6 now.
Did Gramps also buy LNUX at $200?
The article plays up the soap opera angle, but Buffet is far too experienced to let personalities influence his investment decisions. OTOH, he is also famous for sticking to relatively simple businesses that he feels he understands. So does he now understand the ins and outs of fiberoptic telecom? Probably not. He is likely deviating from his normal practice. Let those tempted to follow his lead on the basis of his past success beware. In all liklihood he really is gambling on a relatively quick pickup in bandwidth demand. The denials are to discourage competative bidding for Worldcom's assets. Unfortunately, his guess about future demand is probably not any better than anyone else's. Perhaps he thinks some MS "innovations", maybe in the DRM area, will somehow spur demand.
"Obtuse Anger is that which is greater than Right Anger" - Lewis Carroll
It seems that Buffet's investment in Level3 Communications is more like $100 million. The other slice of the half-billion-dollar pie is coming from partner investors, Legg Mason and Longleaf Partners. They bought the stock on the cheap, feeling that they would survive the shake-out in the telecom sector.
Here's a good article that details the nuts and bolts of the deal.
There is only so much bandwidth to be had from any reasonable chunk of the electomagnetic spectrum. Cell phones have gotten as far as they have mainly by using "space-division" multiplexing. I.e., the same frequency channel can be reused many time among reciever/transmitter pairs that are sufficienly far separated and use sufficiently low power. But how much greater can the density of cell phone towers go given that it is not even just placement but cost that must be considered?
"Obtuse Anger is that which is greater than Right Anger" - Lewis Carroll
I know it's hard to believe, but Warren Buffett didn't achieve his billions by simply watching the supposedly "negligible" transfer fees slip by.
Proper accounting is good for wealth generation. Poor accounting is only good for a few select officers of a few companies (Enron, Worldcom)
the bonds had a 3.41 conversion rate.
Either way, if Level 3 blows or not, Buffet has virtually a guaranteed gain on his $500 mil.
It's not because he suddenly likes telecom, he is not a fan of tech at all, cash, yes.
Wires still rule. For long-distance hauls, relatively error-free transmission and high-speed links, fiber and wire will be the only way to go for a long time.
Wireless is susceptible to weather, depends on line of sight, and the requirements for a quality link are very strict. Wireless is also limited by spectrum licensing, data rates, and nasty things like roof-rights and buildings cropping up 5 years later in front of your installation.
Wireless is fine and dandy for 11Mbps LANs and 45Mbps WANs. But we're not talking about offices and campuses here. We're talking about highspeed datalinks spanning cities, states and continents.
Even if wireless could approach the level of reliability of fiber and copper, you have that little "curvature of the earth" problem for long haul networks. And bouncing signals off sattelites is not a solution.
Level3 is heavily in debt with junk bonds, but it has an awesome network underground in both the US and Europe. They built their fiber network in a way that can be easily updated as new fiber technologies come along. They build 12 conduits, say, and fill two with fiber. When the technology changes, they have all these empty conduits to blow new fiber through. They have co-location facilities in nearly every major city, and these facilities fill up almost immediately after construction. They are doing backbone stuff for companies like AOL. It's actually Level 3 equipment that is used for dial-up in many places. It's an all-IP network.
Level 3 stems from Peter Kiweit (may have the spelling wrong) which is a hundred year old and extremely well respected construction company. Through some very weird transactions the base company turned into Level 3 and spun off the construction arm. The construction arm then contracted with Level 3 to build out the network!
As I understand it, Level 3 is taking full advantage of the WorldCom and others' problems by buying up local loops these other companies are dumping because of their distress. Of course, their stock has doubled in price in the last week because of the Buffett news. Then again, that makes it worth $5.00 when two years ago it was in the $80.00 range, so maybe that's not saying much.
My belief is that when bandwidth demand creeps up, as it surely MUST, Level 3 is going to be there to take advantage.
How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
It's called the Warren Buffet - all you can eat, right inside Nebraska Furniture Mart/Megamart (Nebraska's attempt at a Fry's clone)
Anyone else notice that whenever we hear about these mutigazillion dollar acquisitions and mergers all that's ever talked about is obtaining an already existing product and by extension an already existing customer base? You never hear about them, I don't know, maybe intending to create a NEW product or something? Think about the amount of money that is spent just shifting ownership from one entity to another with no items of actual worth (a subjective term I know, but I think you get the idea) being created. More likely, jobs will be lost as a result. Here's a crazy idea, how about we take all that money and invest in more research or supporting fledgeling inventions or industries. I'd love to see a breakdown of total dollars spent on mergers/acquisitions vs. R&D in this country, I bet the discrepancy is staggering.
It's just one more example of how here in the U.S. we've totally transitioned from being a nation and society of mostly producers to being a nation and society of mostly consumers - be it multibillion dollar companies, customer bases, automobiles, hamburgers or lousy mass media. I'm not saying we should all go back to being farmers, but sweet fancy jeebus, how many middle managers, investment advisors, busines oriented laywers and accountants do we really need? We've created a bizzaro culture of championing parasitic occupations which feed off the results of an ever shrinking pool of actual producers and creators. So if you're with me, go out there and hug an artist, craftsman or scientist (even a computer scientist) today!
Thanks for putting up with me, I think I'll go buy something now.
> Land-line telecom not a good long-term investment
So, you know more about investing than Warren Buffet? Somehow, I doubt that very much.
Our lack of tech insights, we should add, does not distress us. After all, there are a great many business areas in which Charlie and I have no special capital-allocation expertise. For instance, we bring nothing to the table when it comes to evaluating patents, manufacturing processes or geological prospects. So we simply don't get into judgments in those fields.
The author of the article doesn't know Buffet's style that well. When Buffet invests he tends to keep his stocks for many many years. But who knows, this is a strange move of Buffet, he might make another strange move and sell to Gates in the short term.
By the way, Buffet only invested $100 million, which is a very small investment compared with his other investments. The rest of the $500 million investment is from two others. This too is quite strange, as usually Buffet goes after majority ownership. loz
loz
Didn't Klez render this point moot?
Quintus malus puer est.
I love the pun...
The link was broken, it has now been fixed. Sorry about that.
congratulations, this was extremely well done. I was laughing from about a quarter of a way through to the end of that over-wrought genius post :)