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Where's GNU/Linux Usage Headed?
deego writes: "Here are the plots of GNU/Linux number of users, on a
regular scale , and on a
log scale . Though projections have no real bearing on what
actually turns out to be the numbers, they are fun :). The final projections from the
two plots would seem to be a bit different to the naked eye. So, is
GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first
plot), or 'half a billion users' (second plot)?"
Wow!
XML causes global warming.
So what are the errror bars on these graphs? It seems likely that they include both asymptotes.
Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
Take a look at the chart here: http://www.google.ca/press/zeitgeist.html
That using .ps for an image on the web is just dumb. There are already several standard formats for images on the web, PNG being one of the better ones.
.ps (I have to download it and open it in ghostview, which is annoying).
Hell, I'm currently running Mozilla on Debian and it can't even display the
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
Some time in the early 90's, someone calculated that if the trend at the time continued, by 2020 three quarters of the world's population would be Elvis imitators.
Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
mail from "Barry Schnitt"
Mon, 15 Jul 2002 15:49:14 -0700
to "Sean Fritz"
cc
subject Re: Zeitgeist item suggestion
memo Dear Sean,
We continue to update, expand and improve the Google Zeitgeist. Thank you
for you suggestion. For now, I have included the June percentages for
browsers below. If you have any further questions, please let me know.
Browsers
--------------
MS 6.0--37
MS 5.5--25
MS 5.0--25
MS 4.0--2
Net 4.x--4
Other--7
I live in a giant bucket.
What can a microsoft peon like myself view a postscript file with?
What you're not running CygWin with XFree86 and GNU ghostscript on your Windows box?
While running Windows go to those web sites and click on "Install Now" on each of them to run setup for each free product. If you have enough disk space you will eventually have the X Window System and a UNIX emulator running on your box. To update the system at a later date just use "install now" again.
And beyond that, it's very good at displaying text and vector drawings, because the large solid-color areas that such drawings tend to have compress very well.
Sure, it's not the ideal format to store a vector graphic in for future editing, but for display it's perfectly fine.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
Of course, that's like telling him he needs internet explorer to run windows.
A simple google search for "postscript viewer windows" turned up good results.
-- Who is the bigger fool? The fool or the fool who follows him? --
or use imagemagik:
$convert bob.ps bob.jpg
it comes with most distros.
-- john
But everybody should be running GNU and X11. There's no excuse. :)
So, is GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first plot),
Yes, eventually all people will be using linx. With it's frame support, it is highly superior to the the older, yet more established lynx.
GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards zero, eventually. Same goes for MSWindows, or any other OS you care to name.
Eventually it will be replaced by something that hasn't been created yet. Or, taking the really long view, you can choose from: "The Big Crunch", proton decay, or the heat death of the universe.
-
- - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
...that since June 2001 (the first month when OS stats were available), that Windows 98 usage has only dropped from 12% (from 55% to 43% of Google users)?
Windows 2000 and XP have obvious benefits over Windows 98 -- stability being the biggest one, but also a true multi-user OS with protected memory, a real task manager, etc. They also run almost 100% of the existing Windows 98 programs.
So, if people won't switch off something as flaky as Windows 98 on to 2000 or XP, what makes anyone think that these people will switch to something like Linux (which can't even promise that your old programs will run on it)?
This isn't a troll... it's something we all need to think about.
The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?
Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
1- upgrading costs money, most people don't understand the benefits enough to want to spend money on it. (i.e. people so used to Win98 crashing every 2 hours, they just can't comprehend there's a way to stop that).
:)
2- A lot of people can't afford a PC powerful enough for WinXP or Win2k. I, for one, sure can't
that Amazon.com has the Windows XP Home Edition upgrade for $79.00.
I don't really agree that money is the true factor. I think, to partially answer my own question, that the "good enough" factor kicks in after a while. I suppose at this point people just expect computers to crash once a day (or more). It's a frustrating attitude, but it shows that "more stability" apparently isn't compelling enough to get Grandma to upgrade.
So how do you get Grandma to upgrade? What features of Linux can you sell Grandma on? Or do you just let her keep runnning Windows 98 and expecting it to crash once a day?
Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
No, PNG is not "perfectly fine" for displaying graphs on the web.
Is that why most perl-based graphics routine-using programs (namely MRTG and RRDTool) use PNG as their graphing format?
Aw, fuck it. Let's go bowling. - The Big Lebowski
Hello? Ever heard of AOL?
Guaranteed that most of them haven't heard of Google.
I may have been pretty horrible at math but I would feel very confident about walking over and plunking these guys over the head with a big rubber bat for publishing these nonsense plots. Three data points?! Are you kidding me? They obviously freehanded those dotted lines which could have been in the perpendicular direction and maintain the same statistical significance. All these graphs prove is that there are a lot more "gnulinux-users" in 1998 than there were in 1992 and 1993.
Uhm, IBM does does that. What's cooler than a cute penguin, a heart and a peace sign?
...at least two more sample points, one in about 1995/6 and one in 2001 or 2002. And why not at least one every year?
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
Scientists have shown that the moon is moving away at a tiny, although measurable distance from the earth every year. If you do the math, you can calculate that 85 million years ago, the moon was orbiting the earth at a distance of about 35 feet from the earth's surface. This would explain the death of the dinosaurs...the tallest ones, anyway.
Do the editors actually believe these graphs have any significance or even basis in reality?
Is this where the GNU "Black Ops" budget goes?
Now that Apple is shipping more BSD boxes than all the other incompatible fragmented *linux distributions combined, *linux is finally dying from greed and overcommercialization. It time we banded together and start working on the truly free BSD source code again. It has proved commercially viable and lives on in both commercial Unix(tm) offerings like Solaris and AIX, as well as truly free source offerings like FreeBSD and NetBSD. *linux is an evolutionary dead end which has cost the computing world a lot of wasted effort re-implementing what's already been implemented.
Slightly off topic, but when I read this, my weird mind remembered the samurai accountant skit from old SNL. He's explaining performace, which has a peaked graph, up then down. Someone questions that, why does it go down? Belushi takes out his sword and cuts the graph out at the peak. it all goes up. Everybody is satisfied.
67.7234597% of statistics are made up.
having counted Linux users since 1995, I believe I know something about the error factors when estimating the Linux user population.
This guy is not saying ONE word about where he got his numbers from; that's a new low in statistical harebrainedness.
If I could invent my own data points, I could do considerably better than three datapoints, at least. So he's probably using someone's numbers. But whose?
High quality scientific plotting packages dump to Postscript because the output is intended to be printed -- it's for use in reports and journal articles.
However, what we're talking about is the web. You can embed a PNG image in a webpage. You cannot embed a PostScript image in a webpage. In fact, the only vector graphics format I know of that can be embedded in webpages with any chance of your audience being able to view it is Flash, and it's targetted primarily at vector animations, not static images.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
This site has much more reliable data
Best regards from Linux user #127040...
-- From Denmark
A hundred years from now, people may not know what a ".ps" file format is.
But I am sure, somewhere, somehow, some machine(s) still runs gnu / linux codes.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
Another chart that would be interesting would be one showing GNU/Linux vs. Linux.
Some of us just don't give a rats ass about the GNU part of things.
. Quit playing Monopoly with Bill. Switch to one of many non-Microsoft products today.
That's what we were told in MBA school and I believe in it strenuously.
Linux usage will exhibit fluctuations both up and down.
Oh? you mean complete world dominance? Nah that's just the Ecstacy talking.
Most people don't change the OS on their PC, they just use what was preloaded. It's not a matter of cost, merit, or any of that stuff. Most people just don't change or load the OS. When the machine starts getting too flakey, they do one of three things:
1: Buy a new PC, because the old one is *obviously* obsolete and broken.
2: Reload from the recovery CD, which isn't really the same as installing from generic media.
3: Use the computer less, until/if they get around to buying a new one.
We curse the preloads, because they're behind Microsoft's market lock. But the same inertia denies Microsoft the upgrade revenue they'd like, as well. I suspect that PC makers actually like the flakiness of Windows, because it helps drive new PC sales.
The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
I use Linux. The reason why I use Linux is because it simply doesn't crash and it actually uses the hardware I have underneath it. I had an incedent a couple of months ago where my Cheetah 10k died - drive motor burned out - but I was still able to use anything open... Now trying to open somthing caused errors, but the OS was still running. How is that for stability? Anyway, I am glad that people are still out there running windows. It gives me job security -- really it means that I am at least 6 months to a year ahead of the learning curve. You have to understand: Microsoft stole most of what they have and they continue to piss people off by trying to push out their competitors. The SEC has also told them to stop misstating their earnings... It is only a matter of time before that giant falls over and slays itself with it's own sword. So Windows users, cheers! Keep it up! You are making sure that I am employed when all your little icons get changed out for conf files. Anyway, IMHO Windows is like TV. It keeps you dumb. While Linux always presents new challenges. Even if you are a guru, you can still do things like create a distribution (started this weekend, got it to boot!) or basically do what ever you want. There are no secrets with Linux so the possibilities are endless. Somthing to think about.
Be sure to ask yourself this question in reverse the next time you view a web site using Word, Powerpoint, AVI, Quicktime or some other asinine proprietary format to distribute data over the internet. As far as I'm concerned postscript was/is one of the great standard formats- great for printers, great for display and programmable! So of course it's ditched for pdf...
Justin
Linux? Well, even if you accept the doubtful proposition that they've heard of it, it is doomed to be a nonstarter as long as no Linux apps are compelling enough to draw people away from Windows. (Forget Wine and all that. Why go thru the hassle, risk and cost of switching to Linux just to run the same apps you're running now quite happily in Windows? Again, why bother?)
-- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"