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Where's GNU/Linux Usage Headed?

deego writes: "Here are the plots of GNU/Linux number of users, on a regular scale , and on a log scale . Though projections have no real bearing on what actually turns out to be the numbers, they are fun :). The final projections from the two plots would seem to be a bit different to the naked eye. So, is GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first plot), or 'half a billion users' (second plot)?"

22 of 298 comments (clear)

  1. MyOS by scotch · · Score: 5, Funny
    I wrote an operating system yesterday. Today, my friend started using it as well. Based on this growth rate, every person on the planet will be using MyOS by the end of september.

    Wow!

    --
    XML causes global warming.
    1. Re:MyOS by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 3, Funny

      If current trends continue, I will live forever!

  2. Both? by jc42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So what are the errror bars on these graphs? It seems likely that they include both asymptotes.

    --
    Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
    1. Re:Both? by plaa · · Score: 3, Interesting
      So what are the errror bars on these graphs?

      Huge. So huge that this has absolutely no statistical meaning whatsoever. He gives some reasoning to the numbers, but as far as I can tell, he just threw those user counts from his head. He says there are 40 million Linux users today. The Linux counter fellow estimates it at 18 million.

      As he says on the estimates page:

      Of course, the only thing really shown here is that if I am allowed to pick any number, and multiply by any factor I want to, I can get any number I want to get!
      --

      I doubt, therefore I may be.
  3. Google offers interesting desktop usage stats by mTor · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Google's new Zeitgeist is out and they updated stats for the July 2002. Google keeps anon stats of users who visit their website and Linux numbers are still at 1%. They've been at 1% for a while. Mac numbers are steady at 4% as well.

    Take a look at the chart here: http://www.google.ca/press/zeitgeist.html

    1. Re:Google offers interesting desktop usage stats by friedmud · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Hmmm....

      I am using Mozilla 1.1Beta on Gentoo Linux and I can see all of the sites you list above perfectly. And I mean perfectly - absolutely no glitches (even all the car ones)

      It could be because I am using the crossover plugin - but I just don't know.

      Maybe you should try out the newest mozilla, it seems to be extremely compatible.

      Derek

  4. not to mention... by Trepidity · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That using .ps for an image on the web is just dumb. There are already several standard formats for images on the web, PNG being one of the better ones.

    Hell, I'm currently running Mozilla on Debian and it can't even display the .ps (I have to download it and open it in ghostview, which is annoying).

    1. Re:not to mention... by vsync64 · · Score: 4, Informative
      These graphs consist of text and vector drawings. Why on earth would you suggest that PNG, a raster image file format, is at all appropriate? Secondly, Mozilla should easily let you set up what we in the biz call a "helper app". This will let you single-left-click and have the document automatically appear in the appropriate viewer.

      I do agree, however, that raw PostScript is perhaps not the most appropriate format. May I suggest PDF? It's basically a wrapper for a large subset of PostScript, and there are viewers for most every platform. It also has compression built-in.

      Personally, I'm just wondering why 2 images with no surrounding document for context, and no real discussion rather than a retarded blurb in italics would be regarded as an "article".

      --
      TO BUY A NEW CAR WOULD MAKE YOU SEXUALLY ATTRACTIVE.
    2. Re:not to mention... by kilrogg · · Score: 5, Informative

      You should install "plugger", it allows a great deal of apps to act as pluggins for Mozilla.

  5. Re:MyOS (and Elvis) by jc42 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Some time in the early 90's, someone calculated that if the trend at the time continued, by 2020 three quarters of the world's population would be Elvis imitators.

    --
    Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
  6. slightly diffrent, but also usefull by ealar+dlanvuli · · Score: 5, Informative

    mail from "Barry Schnitt"
    Mon, 15 Jul 2002 15:49:14 -0700
    to "Sean Fritz"
    cc
    subject Re: Zeitgeist item suggestion
    memo Dear Sean,

    We continue to update, expand and improve the Google Zeitgeist. Thank you
    for you suggestion. For now, I have included the June percentages for
    browsers below. If you have any further questions, please let me know.

    Browsers
    --------------
    MS 6.0--37
    MS 5.5--25
    MS 5.0--25
    MS 4.0--2
    Net 4.x--4
    Other--7

    --
    I live in a giant bucket.
    1. Re:slightly diffrent, but also usefull by aminorex · · Score: 3, Informative

      The problem with these numbers is that many browsers
      are forced to announce themselves at windows, as
      internet exploder, in order to gain access to
      some content of interest.

      The statistics are *reported* platforms. There is
      a strong motivation for linux users to lie in
      their reports.

      --
      -I like my women like I like my tea: green-
  7. Does anyone else find it depressing... by SlashChick · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...that since June 2001 (the first month when OS stats were available), that Windows 98 usage has only dropped from 12% (from 55% to 43% of Google users)?

    Windows 2000 and XP have obvious benefits over Windows 98 -- stability being the biggest one, but also a true multi-user OS with protected memory, a real task manager, etc. They also run almost 100% of the existing Windows 98 programs.

    So, if people won't switch off something as flaky as Windows 98 on to 2000 or XP, what makes anyone think that these people will switch to something like Linux (which can't even promise that your old programs will run on it)?

    This isn't a troll... it's something we all need to think about.

    The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?

    1. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by haggar · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I'll tell you why: because they either don't have the money (like me) or don't consider it worth.

      Dear friend, the cycle of upgrades has been way too quick, and even though I am sure Gates would love us all to upgrade everytime Microsoft burps up a new version of Windows, people just got annoyed with cashing out every year. When Win95 came out, everybody thought it would be the greatest OS we'll ever need. As people started using Win95 they realized how f*cked up it really is, but they started getting used to it. Then came Win98, and it didn't make any difference in stability, and really very little in functionality. And then came Win98 SE, and it changed so little that, no doubt, many got burned right there right then.

      There is, of course, the corporate market that is more faitful to MS, and mostly they are the buyers of Win2000. But as recession sat in, even corporations started to press on the breaks. Point in case: in my company only about a third of the desktops have been upgraded to Win2000, the restis still happily running WinNT or, on laptops, Win98SE.

      --
      Sigged!
    2. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by ergo98 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?


      Because switching is an investment of time and money, and if someone has a working computer, why bother? The humorous reality is that Microsoft is their own biggest competitor to people upgrading: Even running Windows 98 you can still run IE 6.0, for example. Of course Microsoft has started to see the satisfaction that people have with their current OS, so things like Media Player are now only coming out in new versions for XP, for instance.


      Personally I find it very hard to believe that as many people use Windows 2000 as Google reports: Windows 2000 is a `professional' OS, and it was never marketed or really sold to the home population (and it's expensive as well), yet 20% of Google users use it? I have to guess that that 20% is mostly corporate users, or developers.

    3. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by FyRE666 · · Score: 3, Interesting
      It'd be interesting if slashdot had a few stats concerning OS and browser usage available to view. Here's the analog stats for OS use amongst visitors to my web server here at home on my ADSL line - it's only advertised on slashdot, so it's a pretty good measure of the OS slashdotters use (at least the ones that visit my server):


      no. reqs pages OS

      1: 272024: 110492: Windows
      : 115335: 46976: Windows XP
      : 64394: 26984: Windows 2000
      : 55761: 25105: Unknown Windows
      : 27537: 8576: Windows 98
      : 3458: 1344: Windows ME
      : 2828: 1317: Windows NT
      : 2697: 187: Windows 95
      : 5: 3: Windows 3.1
      : 9: 0: Windows 32-bit
      2: 66184: 31302: Unix
      : 61669: 28955: Linux
      : 3542: 1828: BSD
      : 654: 356: SunOS
      : 231: 115: Other Unix
      : 28: 22: IRIX
      : 46: 17: OSF1
      : 14: 9: AIX
      3: 25198: 12846: Macintosh
      : 24955: 12666: Macintosh PowerPC
      : 155: 97: Macintosh 68k
      : 88: 83: Unknown Macintosh
      4: 20107: 4163: OS unknown
      5: 39: 26: Amiga
      6: 35: 25: RISC OS
      7: 20: 15: Known robots
      8: 29: 15: BeOS
      9: 10: 5: WebTV


      What's really scary is that Win3.1 is still in use - although I'm guessing it's a robot/joke. Nice to see there's almost as my Linux users as Win2K! The WinXP stats are exagerated as I use it on my desktop, and I've been testing new scripts on the server lately...
    4. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by Quarters · · Score: 5, Insightful
      people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?


      The answer is simple -- The masses view their computers the same way they view their televisions, stereos, and vcrs. They're appliances. They'll use whatever OS comes on the computer they bought up until the day they buy a new computer. Then they'll use the OS that comes on that one, etc...

      Average users aren't geeks. Average users don't care about the pros/cons of a given OS. They just want an OS that will run the shelves of software they see in Best Buy.

  8. Meaningless by KidSock · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I may have been pretty horrible at math but I would feel very confident about walking over and plunking these guys over the head with a big rubber bat for publishing these nonsense plots. Three data points?! Are you kidding me? They obviously freehanded those dotted lines which could have been in the perpendicular direction and maintain the same statistical significance. All these graphs prove is that there are a lot more "gnulinux-users" in 1998 than there were in 1992 and 1993.

  9. Mmm..extrapolation.. by ekidder · · Score: 5, Funny
    I love extrapolations. I do. They let you determine things which may have no effect on reality. I refer you to this. I wish I knew the author. I first saw it on Usenet long ago.

    Scientists have shown that the moon is moving away at a tiny, although measurable distance from the earth every year. If you do the math, you can calculate that 85 million years ago, the moon was orbiting the earth at a distance of about 35 feet from the earth's surface. This would explain the death of the dinosaurs...the tallest ones, anyway.

  10. Why isn't this posted under "humor"? by Have+Blue · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Do the editors actually believe these graphs have any significance or even basis in reality?

  11. Samurai accountant? by cant_get_a_good_nick · · Score: 5, Funny

    Slightly off topic, but when I read this, my weird mind remembered the samurai accountant skit from old SNL. He's explaining performace, which has a peaked graph, up then down. Someone questions that, why does it go down? Belushi takes out his sword and cuts the graph out at the peak. it all goes up. Everybody is satisfied.

    67.7234597% of statistics are made up.

  12. No indication of what numbers he is using..... by hta · · Score: 4, Interesting

    having counted Linux users since 1995, I believe I know something about the error factors when estimating the Linux user population.
    This guy is not saying ONE word about where he got his numbers from; that's a new low in statistical harebrainedness.
    If I could invent my own data points, I could do considerably better than three datapoints, at least. So he's probably using someone's numbers. But whose?