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When to Buy Technology Goods?
inblosam asks: "I am about to make 'the switch', but the thought came to me that there may be a strategic time of year to purchase technology goods. Of course once you buy something it is nearly outdated already, but there must be some marketing cycle for lowering prices and releasing new toys. Anyone seen any patterns that may help? I do have one hypothesis: Companies push their products that have been on the market for 10-11 months during the holiday season (December), then afterwards drop the prices some and bump up the product with a new feature or size, etc. I believe this was the case for the iPod ($500 down to $300 ?), and even the Handspring Visor Edge was $300 when I bought it (November?) and then $169 three months later."
One thing to remember is that Apple tends to revamp a product category (consumer desktop/loptop, pro desktop/laptop) approx. every 18 months. This is by design. There are incremental upgrades during this time (larger iMac screen).
Gee, did I get a first post?
During the Christmas season, prices go up because retailers know people will pay.
:).
Go to Mac fan sites and find out when all the Mac shows are (obviously that's when the new stuff comes out).
Sometimes new stuff comes out before Christmas for the first reason I listed. Photokina (the big camera show) starts next week I think. The new models announced will probably arrive on store shelves at the end of October (can't wait for a Canon G3
When you're looking at Apple purchases, try and keep the MacWorld schedules in mind. Usually MacWorld NY offers the 'big' updates and price shifts, but the other MacWorld events do too. It's a good idea to buy right after one, because prices aren't likely to change for a while.
My own pointless vanity vintage computing page
For Apple products its always best to get wait for revision after a major product overhaul.
Early adopters get burned. Outside of the obviously faster chips, graphics cards, etc, which just goes with the territory of buying computers, with Apple you get the industrial design quirks that haven't been worked out properly.
In the original Titanium Powerbook the battery comes out if you twist the wrong way and the DVD drive can grind if the thing is at an angle at all.
If you are going to "switch," always take the second or third product revision from Apple. You end up better in the long run.
my general rule is to buy tech at least 1 or 2 yrs after it hits the market. Since I'm a student, I don't have money for cutting-edge, but I get last-year's cutting edge for half price, the initial bugs have been worked out (somewhat), and I can avoid what's been massively rejected. It depends on a) how fast the turnover is for the particular tech B) how much disposable income you have c) intangible factors like status and style, and how important that is to you.
For microprocessors and motherboards, prices are tied to the linewidth cycle.
:).
A couple of months after a new linewidth becomes available, you get a few marginally higher-speed samples at a huge price.
Over the next six months, speed ramps up by a factor of 2 and prices drop on the older stuff. During this time any new chipsets introduced for the new hardware mature.
6 months after a linewidth switch, buy from the low end of the new speed grade range. You'll get a good price, and won't be obsolete for a year or more (as opposed to the usual 6 months).
There should be similar cycles for RAM (twice as fast, since they step lithography in cycles twice as fine), but in practice this isn't the case. Because margins are so thin, you get the occasional upset that drastically affects price (sometimes with help - the warehouse fire that quadrupled RAM prices a few years back only affected 3% of production capacity, according to rumour).
Processors are driven by linewidth, and motherboards are driven by processors, but most other things are market driven and so not as easy to predict. Other posters seem to have a better handle on this than I do
This reminds me of my old manager when I did computer sales, he was an old used car salesman and he would always say "it's ALWAYS a good time to buy a computer."
But he was full of crap. A good example was my PowerMac 8100/110. It $4500 (even at edu discount), it took 60 days to deliver the machine due to delays caused by some idiotic porny easter egg they found in the OS CDs and they had to master new CDs for ALL their stock. 2 weeks after delivery, they dropped the price $300. Mere weeks later, the machine was discontinued and replaced by far cheaper, faster models.
Another good example is my Powerbook G3/500, purchased 30 days before the G4/500 was released at the same price. But that one I don't regret, because I paid for the machine with the 30 days of work for one specific job.
So what you could do is just ask ME, and whenever I buy, that's the WRONG time to buy. FYI, I just bought a new dual-1Ghz machine.
I deal in the retail computer/technology world, mainly compaq, epson, HP, and Envision(AOC) monitors.
:)
Never fails, pretty much every 3 months compaq replaces their desktop line, and 3-4 months their laptop line(presarios and evos alike I believe... I work with both). Stocking them gets to be a bitch in a small market like ours... we order frequent small orders so not to get stuck with old models. So, if we hit it wrong, we're without computers for a week, because the old stock runs out, but the new stuff's still backordered.
Never fails, EVERY back-to-school season we run waaay short, especially on laptops(so figure your cycle starting end of august).
Epson and HP's printers keep a little more lifespan, usually 4-6 months, whenever the decide we need more faux-resolution increase, or a new type of ink/cartridge.
Monitors... a year or better product cycle, at least for CRTs anyway... havent changed much beside the (case) color in a while either.
I usually buy RIGHT at the end of product life.. get nice and cheap then.. but i hate it because the next product I see a week later is always sooo much cooler
Getting at your more general question, the answer is also now. You're always guaranteed that if you wait it will be faster and cheaper. So what? Then you don't get the use of the machine until a long time from now.
Find free books.
Buy an electronics product when you need it, or when it would make a substantial improvement in your quality of life.
Yes, prices usually drop somewhat after the winter holidays, but prices on most of today's consumer electronics will continue to go lower and lower as eqipment bought a few months ago becomes obselete because of the latest "advance." The solution: wait until you need something and buy it then. If you become obsessed with getting the best price on something and timing the market, you'll either never buy or drive yourself crazy.
Any self-respecting geek knows full well that whatever tech product you end up buying, no matter how well researched, no matter how "latest and greatest," will be instantaneously transformed into the lamest piece of outdated old fashioned stone knife and bearskin technology that even your grandfather wouldn't be caught dead using -- the *moment* you pay for it.
Several people have written and said that you should buy systems 1-2 years after they're first released to maximize reliability.
I've bought lots of Macs over the past 20 years, and since '95 or so I've seen a pattern develop. Here's my theory: buy the most expensive brand-new system you can afford at the instant you're ready to buy.
My first Mac laptop-- a PowerBook 160-- cost me $3,000, and I used it every day for five years. It was my primary-- only!-- machine until I bought my iMac. I regret that purchase, but only a little bit. Both of my iMacs were great, reliable little machines, and I never had a complaint about either of them, but I often wished I had bought machines with more oomph.
When the "speed holes" machines came out last month, I bought again. I found a friend who was willing to give me a few bucks for my iMac, and I plopped down $3,500 on a dual processor 1 GHz with a 17" studio display. It's fast, really fast, and it's got room to grow. I'll keep it for at least three years, I imagine.
But I know, and I accept, that Apple will release faster and better machines eight months or a year from now. It won't be too long before my top-o-the-line machine looks a little pale by comparison to the newest machines shipping. But that's not the point. The point is to get the very best system you can when you're ready to buy, and then be happy with it for as long as it takes to justify the purchase in your mind.
I buy right after something big hits the market. I'd get a 2 GHz processor right after the 2.2s come out. A GeForce 3 right after the GF4 comes out. This gives you a good balance of near-cutting edge for a fair price. Your hardware stays up to date longer, and doesn't cost as much as the top of the line.
Oh shit! I forgot to click "Post Anonymously"...
But, since you asked...
The entire technology industry monitors your activities. As soon as you purchase a product, we lower the price. Dramatically.
Again, I'm very sorry.
Username taken, please choose another one.
I feel knowledgeable enough to say:
Last month.
No, I'm not being fecicious here, but I have seen, and experienced the best prices in July/August. Memory is cheap, and parts are cheap.
My guess is because people and companies just aren't buying much during the summer.
Whatever you do, avoid buying near Christmas. Even if you get a good deal, the extra strain on a dealer to work through Christmas will lower the quality of service, and possibly quality of parts you get.
If you could be told what you can see or read, then it follows that you could be told what to say or think - BoC
The question just cannot be answered. There is no single 'BEST' time to buy technology, no matter how quickly price drops off with time.
Instead, when you 'should' buy a technology depends on the tradeoff between how badly you 'need' that technology and how badly you need to save money. For some people, waiting 1 week or even 1 day for the end of the next MacExpo might be too long to wait to buy the latest/greatest Mac.
Do you HAVE to have the fastest computer out there because you're doing rendering or financial modelling or something really CPU intensive ? If your time is worth enough $, then maybe the time to buy the latest/fastest/greatest AMD/Intel chip or whatever is now. If, on the other hand, you're a hobbyist, then maybe you can make do with a slower CPU or the penultimate video card instead of the ultimate until prices drop.
Check the product pricing curve. For example, look at CPU's. We all woo at the higher-ghz offerings from AMD and Intel. However, those CPUs tend to have the worst price/performance ration. For example (looking at http://www.anandtech.com/guides/showdoc.html?i=169 7&p=2), the Athlon XP 2200+ is $147. The XP 2100+ (only 66 mhz slower) is $117. The XP 2000+ (133 mhz slower then the 2200+) is only $92. Comparing the 2000+ (1.67Ghz) to the 2200+ (1.8Ghz), you are paying 60% more money for an 8% increase in speed. Wouldn't that extra $55 be a lot better if spent on memory or a faster HDD?
A lot of hardware tends to be priced this way. You pay a premium for 'cutting edge'. You are paying more to be the first guinea pig to test their product. In a working environment, do you really want to do this?
Speaking of which, know what you are buying. Don't buy junk, it will come back to bite you. Buy from quality manufacturers who have a history of supporting their products. For windows machines, go with companies that release stable drivers. Also, try to figure out where you need the speed. Do you need fast HDD access? Maybe a Gigabit network. Or is it raw computing power? Read the reviews of the hardware, and check usenet to see if anyone has had any problems.
In short, do your homework, buy quality, and avoid the high-priced bleeding edge hardware.
Just my $.02
I tend to buy the latest neatest motherboard available and the cheapest processor it supports. Then a year or two later I'll buy the fastest processor supported by the same MBD and maybe some more memory. This way I get a system that's reasonably fast all the time and upgrades are much more affordable (never get to buy $300 CPUs).