Expect DVD Chip Price Wars

prostoalex writes "With more companies developing the chips for DVD players the price wars might ensue. According to this DigiTimes report, 'Boosted by rising shipments, the higher price of DVD player single-chips is likely to push up the average chip price to US$9.56 in the fourth quarter from US$8.58 in the first half. However, the increasing number of chip suppliers also implies that a new price war may soon develop'. The predictions of DVD chips sales slowing down add to the expectations for price wars."

Comments

Is this a big deal for us?

[FyRE666]

Reading this story, it seems the chips only make a few dollars/pounds difference to the price of a single player, so is this really that big a deal to a consumer? I think the players are pretty cheap anyway - it's the DVD disk box-sets that really hit the wallet!

Re:Is this a big deal for us?

[robbyjo]

Yes, it matters. It may create a domino effect to other DVD parts as well, thus creating a cheaper system in overall. It happens in all electronic products throughout history. It always starts with a measly drop of a key component.

Re:Is this a big deal for us?

[JonTurner]

"Yes, dear, we and the children are starving to death, human rights are unheard of here thanks to our corrupt government, and easily-cured disease is spreading like wildfire leading to a life expectancy of less than 30 years. But, hey, look on the bright side. If only we could get electricity and a television we could watch our favorite Wesley Crusher episode of Star Trek on this fancy new DVD player..."

Re:This is good right

[SnAzBaZ]

No matter how cheap a $10 chip gets, it's not going to change the price for the consumer significantly - it's only $10...

Markups

[Detritus]

By the time you add up the markups of the various stages in the manufacturing/distribution/retail chain, a few dollars in parts cost can translate into a substantial change in the retail price.

Everybody who wants a DVD player now has one...

[Anonymous Coward]

It had to happen eventually, the industry needs to get over it.

I don't have one because:

* Region coding - I object to it on principle, but there is also lack of information - for example, both Europe and Japan are region 2, but if I buy an NTSC disc from Japan, would it play on a European player? Also, does buying a code-free DVD player break the law where I live? I don't know, therefore I won't buy one

* Already have a laserdisc player - and a *lot* of laserdiscs. Sorry, but I'm not about to switch formats to gain, at most, a slight improvement. We're not talking HDTV here, we're talking primarily YUV component colourspace instead of PAL encoded composite colourspace.

* MPEG artifacts - analogue artifacts like dot crawl don't bother me much at all - they look natural now. Blocky digital artifacts bother me a lot, they jump out and scream, 'hello I am a compression artifact' at me, (not really, but you see what I mean).

* Sillyness - 'must watch' chapters on DVD, no, sorry, I'm not going to pay for that, forget it. 10 second copyright notice is possibly tollerable, but not adverts - no way.

* VHS is a lot better than it used to be - sorry, but it's true, in the early 80s, VHS was a terrible format, but modern machines are better than my 1970s U-Matic decks. It's not as good as laser, or DVD, but frankly, I don't cry my eyes out because I have to watch something on VHS.

* Watching fewer films now anyway - this is actually a major reason for not buying DVD. I am getting seriously bored of watching rubbish. The last film I saw at the cinema was Deep Impact - nothing has appealed to me since.

* Compressed audio - there was NO excuse for compressing the audio on DVD. I hate compressed audio, and don't want it. I want uncompressed, 2 or more channels of 48 Kbps 16-bit PCM, or nothing. It's bad enough that the cinemas are using these stupid compressed soundsystems, but don't let it invade the consumer market. Oh, you have. Another reason why I don't have a DVD player.

So, to sum up, I don't have a DVD player, and I don't want one.

Re:Everybody who wants a DVD player now has one...

[John_Booty]

I want uncompressed, 2 or more channels of 48 Kbps 16-bit PCM, or nothing

This isn't a feasible option- at least not without giving up a lot of the audio options that make DVD's cool.

A DVD holds about 8GB of data, correct? Uncompressed stereo PCM takes roughly 600MB an hour. For a two hour movie, that's 1.2GB.

One of the big selling points of DVD's is obviously the 5.1 surround sound. If you add another 4 channels of uncompressed sound on top of the stereo PCM, you could be talking 3.6GB of data just for ONE audio track. Already, this is cutting WAY into the space available for the video.

Another huge selling point of DVD's is multiple audio tracks for different languages and director's commentary and such. Two uncompressed 5.1 audio tracks would consume nearly the entire DVD.

I suppose that once the technology becomes available, perhaps they'll come up with a format based on optical media with a raw capacity much higher than DVD, like maybe 50GB. Then your wishes will become feasible.

I wouldn't hold my breath for such a standard, though- an increase in output quality would simply not be noticeable on the AV setups found in 99.9% of homes today.

Once there's an HDTV in nearly every house, you may see enough consumer demand for a format offering higher-fidelity than DVD. But not before.

DVD Chips

[Conspire]

FYI, the royalties for DVD proprietary standard are much more than all chipmakers' profits, or the end product makers' profits for that matter.

Re:Please don't call them chips

[Anonymous Coward]

I remember when I ordered some software from America, (I'm in Europe), the woman was suprised that I couldn't buy it locally. There was an irritating delay on the line, (sounded like it was going via satellite, which is unusual for trans-atlantic calls, they usually go via cable), and we kept interrupting each other by talking at the same time.

She said something about 'Fries', and I'm like, huh? What are you talking about? Do I want fries with it or something? HUH???

Then she explained that there is an electrical chain in the U.S.A. called Fries, and I was like, ahhh, right, you had me *really* confused then!

Re:Please don't call them chips

[Qrlx]

Seriously, I've given up grammer trolling, but...

Fry's. Not fries. as in Fry's Electroncis.

Don't feel bad, I ordered an old Compaq VRM from the U.K. because even after shipping it was like $30 cheaper than I could find in the U.S. I got this great email from the firm saying that "the goods have been shipped" and I was envisioning a little heroin bonus in the package.

Who's the largest consumer of DVD players?

[AlaskanUnderachiever]

That's what I want to know.

Who buys the most players? Is it the US? Singapore? China? More importantly, are the major markets for players doing well financially?
I'd say that drops in chip prices are all well and good, but the bottom line is price is going to be dictated by both demand, and what the market can bear in terms of durable goods.
Does anyone remember what the computer makers predicted for this quarter and what actually happened? Sales didn't just stay flat, in many cases compared to projections they nosedived. Durable goods are just that. Durable. Long term. You can only buy so many. Unless there is a compelling reason to upgrade, most people don't.
So who IS the major "market" for the players? Anyone have any good links/data?

Re:Who's the largest consumer of DVD players?

[MtViewGuy]

Right now, the USA is probably the largest market for legal DVD players and discs.

There are two reasons for this: 1) the price of players have dropped dramatically--you can even now get 480p progressive scan DVD players for under US$200 nowadays; and 2) the price of DVD discs are still pretty reasonable (US$20 to US$30 for new releases, US$10 to US$15 for older releases).

Because the price of DVD discs are still reasonable, the incentive to pirate movies is still very low. DVD's very sharp picture quality is one reason why VCD's have never really taken off in the USA. Say what you want about the MPAA, but the fact that movie companies have pretty much followed Disney's sell-through policy for pre-recorded movies in the DVD market has actually discouraged movie piracy for the vast majority of computer users out there.

Re:Who's the largest consumer of DVD players?

[RayChuang]

VCD came out years before DVD.

But VCD's never really took off in the US market when they were first introduced, mostly because they never sold stand-alone VCD players like it was done in Asia. Besides, why bother with a video format with about the same picture quality as VHS tapes?

whoopee?

[Phantros]

I'm less than excited. My last DVD player cost me $90. Yes, $90, new. How much cheaper can they get? Are they going to replace the increasingly poor prizes crackerjack boxes have had to resort to?

A new factor: graphics cards decoding DVD's

[MtViewGuy]

I think one factor that not that many people talk about is the fact that the latest generation of graphics cards can do hardware acceleration at a pretty high level (at least both hardware motion compensation and Inverse Discrete Cosine Tranform) for decoding MPEG-2 video streams from DVD movies.

ATI has been doing this since their Rage 128 chipset arrived around 1999; nVidia's GeForce4 MX and GeForce4 Ti also do this now, and Matrox's Parhelia board do it now, too.

In short, the market for seperate DVD decoding boards has pretty much vanished on the desktop and laptop computer market.

Re:A new factor: graphics cards decoding DVD's

[RayChuang]

The market for separate DVD decoding boards pretty much vanished when CPUs got faster than 350 MHz.

I disagree on that. It was when CPU speeds went past 400 MHz that all-software decoding solutions became really viable. And even then, programs like WinDVD and PowerDVD took advantage of MPEG-2 decoding assistance on newer graphics card chipsets (ATI's Rage 128 and most of the Radeon line, nVidia GeForce series, SiS 305 and newer, the onboard video of Intel's 810 and 815 motherboard chipsets, etc.) so playback is a bit smoother.

Who cares?

[blair1q]

A dollar price rise on something I may buy nine of in my entire life is about the least important news since Bill Gates' "losing" $11 billion in 2001.

(meta) Illegal comments

[yerricde]

WTF is an "illegal" comment?

Given that Slashdot's servers are located in the United States of America, where all reasonable political speech is permitted, an "illegal" comment generally contains one or more of libel, copyright infringement (as in this case), or enticement to commit copyright infringement or access control circumvention (such as a link to non-Pigdog DeCSS software). Giving the secret code for a level select on one of these DVD chips may be considered such an illegal comment.

APEX 1200

[MsGeek]

$60 at Sears. It's not the hax0rable version but it plays DVDs. MP3 CD-Rs and JPG CD-Rs too. Kinda pissed it doesn't play VCD (Apex had a tussle with Philips and Philips pulled their CD-I/VCD license) but oh well, more for my PCs with DVD drives to have fun with.

At this rate, we will see DVD players in crackerjack boxes by 2005.

Do the more expensive chips have more features?

[Dr. Spork]

You know, not all DVD chips are born equal. For example, some chips coming on the market, like the one from Sigma Designs, can decode MPEG-4 streams as well as MPEG-2. In my book that is a HUGE difference in usability, because it means you can play Xvid, Divx 4+ and new Quicktimes right in your living room.

And what about chips that support DVD-Audio? Jesus, how long has that format been just around the corner? As for me, I'm not buying a DVD standalone until it can play MPEG-4 and doesn't cost me much. If the established chip manufacturers are raising prices, maybe this will open a window for Sigma to get their better chips into consumer players. Hate them if you like for falsely taking credit for Xvid (I accepted their appology), but you still have to admit that MPEG-4 in the living room would rule! It's worth waiting for, in my opinion.

Interesting times for DVD.

[dvd_tude]

It's interesting watching the evolution of DVD in the marketplace since I was involved in it during its infancy. I wonder how long before the grip of the DVD Consortum "Gang of Ten" is finally broken.

The history of DVD offers an object lesson in old rivalaries, protectionism and national politics, battles which still rage on today. It's as if we're still fighting WWII.

The key battle seems to be between Japan and China. The Japanese missed the boat on Video CD, only to watch Philips and C-Cube walk away with the prize in China. By fostering SVCD (Chaoji) as a low-cost (and no-license) alternative to DVD, the Chinese seemed determined to hose Japan again. Under this pressure, the Japanese countered by - slowly - offering DVD technology transfers though joint ventures and though US trade bullying on 'piracy' (which we all know is more about market control than it is about copyright.)

The DVD format is about seven years old now. As prices continue to drop and worldwide DVD player demand slackens, I have to wonder how long that lucrative (and onerous) DVD licensing scheme is going to last.

As it stands now, I think it's possible to make a DVD player without a single component from an original DVD Consortium memmber. They have no value-add anymore.

The Consortium's hammerlock on DVD persists though Hollywood's dominance of content in that format. But, Hollywood is getting more competition from indigenous material - notably in huge markets like India and China - the very material that helped propel Video CD. With Hollywood's recent product becoming increasingly parochial and cliche', one has to wonder how long before its grip, too, is softened in the non-US markets.

One way for the Consortium to add value is to offer a meaningful technology upgrade to DVD. But, there's no reason that it has to come from a DVD Consortium member. What if, for example, China mastered and deployed blue laser technology and high-density disc pressing to go with it, giving them the lead in HD format? It could be Video CD and SVCD all over again.

Here's another scenario: what if a net-new standard-def format (say, MPEG-4 with HTML-based navigation) was developed somewhere and introduced in China, as an upgrade to SVCD? What if it used its own high-density media that could be manufactured on DVD production lines? I could see China threatening exactly that.

- dvd_tude

Re:compressed audio makes sense

[djrogers]

That _might_ make some semblance of sense if any movies were in simple stereo these days, but the CD quality audio you seem to long for is 3.1 tracks short of a modern movie soundtrack. Brings that 1.5G up to 4.5G if you include center, surround and LFE...