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Cringley Asking for 12 Month Predictions
sckienle writes "Robert X. Cringely is asking in his pulpit this week for help in determining what's going to happen in the tech industry in the next 12 months." I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape. This will occur in January. For the rest of the year, technology will take a vacation.
Anybody with any real insight into the technology of the coming year won't post it to Cringley or Slashdot, they'll run out and get a patent.
Join the fun! patent the obvious next step and sue, sue, sue!
m00.
Developers Developers Developers
I know it's been asked before, but since it seems like Slashdot posts a news story about the Cringely column every week, there's no good reason these stories don't belong in their own category, as I'm sure many readers already read these on their own every week and don't need to be reminded of it.
The tech world was shattered today by the news that two members of the open source weblog Slashdot hooked up at a slashdot.meetup.com meeting.
Anonymously speaking, the female slashddotter was surprised that the two had so much in common "He likes anime, and thought I looked so good in my Sailor Moon cosplay, I was charmed. I was so charmed, he charmed me out of that suit later that night, giggle".
The male slashdotter commented "Well, I was 23 and a virgin, and spending the night recompiling RedHat 8.0 did not appeal to me. I was sure about *****, she was a little chunky, but when I saw that she came out of the ladies room, and not the mens, I knew she was a real women. I think we'll have sex again."
I predict that sometime in the next 12 months, someone will release software that lets Mac OS X users make perfect copies of DVDs. Since OS X is enough under the 'radar' of the MS-lovin' types, they don't notice until millions of people get a copy of the application.
Mike van Lammeren
It will challenge your head, your brain, and your mind.
I wonder why this hasn't happened earlier - I think someone evil is finally going to notice that Usenet is 95% warez/moviez, and go after the big companies that run Usenet servers. This will probably happen after someone makes a tool that allows for easy use of Usenet, ie, a "download, unpar, unrar" tool, that keeps track of binary groups.
BBK
in the next 12 months, I predict
1) Fully functional computerized Voting (e-chad)
2) Linux on the desktop!
3) IIS releases a fully secure, bug-free version!
4) BEOS Makes a stunning comeback!
5) Bionics are introduced widely(and banned by the NFL, MLB still pending)
6) The DMCA is overturned in the supreme court!
7) BLOG's widely viewed as the thing to go on the 'net
8) AOL Version 9, 10, 11, and 12
9) Apple releases the new iMac - in new scratch n' sniff colors
10) Slashdot wins pulitzer prize for news journalism!
I am the lord of the pun. Dance Knave!
I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape.
Yes, but only as retribution for the unrelenting barrage of spelling errors.
The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
We will continue our efforts to supplant staples, but glue will continue to be a stong player.
Oh sorry, I thought you said tack industry.
Best Windows Freeware
Japanese toilet technology will advance to the point that nobody has a reason for ever leaving. Weeks later, people will start asking, "Hey, have you seen the Japanese lately?".
Let's see how close he was... Anyone got a link?
I predict a large company will make an existing product smaller, and double the number of features for 90% of the current price.
I also predict that 99% of the people that BUY that product will be unaware that those features exist and consequently not use them.
I preduct the people least likely to use those features will buy that product because 'It's pretty'.
"Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus."
what's going to happen in the tech industry in the next 12 months
/. will repost many of the articles from today in the next several months (sorry, had to say it) :-)
More than likely, a lot of what is happening already, just in a slight variation.
Manufacturers of video cards, CPU's etc will bring out something that's newer, faster, etc, touting it over the competion. The CPU may be faster, but will be held down by the motherboard/peripheral bottleneck. To some extent the same will apply to the video card.
Meanwhile, large companies will be looking for ways to take down users pirating their wares, and pirates will be looking for better/different ways to exchange those wares and or crack them.
Hammer may come out, but again, for those who aren't currently hitting the limits of their PC's it's not really such a big deal.
Summary: Sold old stuff, new marketing, somewhat faster.
Oh, and chances are
Skynet isn't due for another 27 years, in 2029, so nothing really exciting there - phorm
Well, the obvious choises are .. XP 2 or 2003, Mandrake/Redhat Z (where Z>7), OS X.A (Where A>1).
/. story mentioned) quality audio out soon.
Now the serious stuff.
As Cringley likes to say Wifi would be more wide spread, I believe 802.11g would come out and outdate all other wireless lan technologies. Along with that, we'd see increasing number of community free wireless networks (That might or might not be connected to the Net).
America would skip the whole little-phone-philia, instead we'd be into bigger more bulky gadgets. I believe, the PDA's would get better batteries and thus would slowly start replacing phones (probably the biz ppl and young kids first).
Satellite based radio's would die and we'd see some nice shows on the sky when they fall out (just like the Iradium). This means Sirrus and XM. The cause for this would be better compression technologies and the recent opening of a spread spectrum by FCC that lets higher bandwith be sent over the airwaves. Stations would start to pump out studio (not cd as a
We'll also see a revival of the Dot com like companies, but this would be a more apprehensive revial, companies would be more conservative and we'd see most invetment into technology related with Games (console) and Porn. The old sex and violence.
IPV6 would be postponned and in return we'd see the invention of more and more firewalling/masqurading gadgets, routers would come firewalling/masqurading built in, people would start living within private networks.
Laws would be passed to ban P2P and such similar technologies, but these laws could not be enforced due to jurastiction issues and technology issues. The ppl who'd get hurt in the end would be those sharing files, they might get raided and sentenced. Those who make these software would be out of harms way. We'd see a reduction in the amount of spy ware due to community backlash.
Superman hype would create more superman games and gadgets. (Seriously).
We'll go on war, but our military research facilities would create enough products to stimulate the stangnent information market. Even though this technology would come into the commerical maket 25 years from the time it's created.
We'd see a decline in movie goers... DVD's would be released region free, but with hardware copyright devices.
Slashdot would continue to post these stories. And Cringley would be just himself and ranting like this.
Everyone will continue to not really care.
Who moderates the meta-moderators?
Is your company doing especially well? Are there sectors that are especially exciting, where products are bubbling to the surface and companies feel like they are about to show the world just how good they are? Tell me about it.
Translation:
My portfolio isn't doing so well. Anybody mind helping me out here?
I'm still waiting for my Flying Car from the year 2000..
Trolling is a art,
First of all the slump in the overall economy will stop any significant new technologies in their crib. If current situation remains the only thing corporations havent saved money on is the IT departments. After they sacked half their staff and factories only IT and management is left to do any larger savings on. They will go after IT and not management for cost cuts. I presume that the biggest IT companies will have a hard time to withstand their high earnings if that will be the case.
On the good side this would open up a new area of buisiness that i think would thrive. Companies like IBM that saves money for their customers will be very popular among corporations.
New computer hardware wont be released with the same pace if no one is buying it. The current pace on uppgrades has been predicted to level off for quite some time now and its about time. At some point hardware is up to par with the tasks performed by 90% of people. The rest 10% cant hold the upgrade pace up by themselves.
HTTP/1.1 400
1) In a surprise move, the Taliban will announce its hostile takeover of the Disney corporation. The company's long-standing "no facial hair" policy will be replaced by a "mandatory beard" policy and animators will immediately commence work on a new flagship character, Mullah Mouse.
2) Nevada, Arizona and British Columbia will all pass legislation legalizing marijuana, prompting Bush to name them as part of the "axis of evil" and authorize a retaliatory nuclear strike.
3) RIAA will introduce a surgical throat implant that that causes people to gag and choke when they try to hum or sing copyrighted music. Marketing the device as the "iMusicFreedomSexChoicePod," they will offer it through major chain stores for $99 for a limited time only, while supplies last. After November, the price will increase to $399.
and, finally
4) Sometime in August, independent polls will indicate that Slashdot's daily readership has surpassed that of the New York Times, Washington Post and USA Today combined. In response to this market pressure, all major print dailies will target a 1st grade reading level. Headlines such as "Lame Senator Says He's Rubber, Opponent Is Glue" and "Superfund Site Smells Like Total Ass" will abound.
Everything we see these days seems to be an incremental improvement or "synergy" type of product with nothing fantastic showing up.
Of course I see the eventual "StarTrekification" [Copyright currently under attack by Paramount] of about every modern day device we have. PDA's become phones become cameras, become mobile webservers for on the go Amateur Porn actors with built in audio, video, and Solitaire.
These Predictions are invariably insider information about products in the pipeline that were in the think tank not a long time ago and their usefulness is generally overplayed, but they are an easy, attention grabbing headline (you saw it on Slashdot didn't you?)
With all that said, here are a few things that will almost certainly happen on the technology front:
1) PDA/Phone/Camera combo's will do streaming video. No more lugging that mini-dv to your local Movie Pirate... just WiFi it. Hell... we could all watch a movie in real time from Mobile Pirates(tm).
2) FINALLY something useful - fuel cell batteries for everything
3) LCD's will big bigger and cheaper and somehow they'll figure out how to stop streaking in fast motion applications.
4) Foveon CMOS will make it into high-end prosumer palmcorders
5) DVDxR format will be released. Look for the DVD/R drive a year later. Oh, and the "end-all" DVD+-x/R drives from Sony should be due out about a year after that - don't get left behind, each new version is nominally more compatible than the last!
6) Portable Hologram units (ala Star Wars). 'Nuff said.
7) Virtual Porn on PS2/Xbox/Cube... Think Dead Or Alive X-treme Volleyball engine with a few more 'fun' features. This will be the killer app that finally brings Porn to it's intended audience in the way which we all really want - with full control, no lame acting, and in widescreen
8) THX 9.1 Surround Sound. Get it on your PC now!
9) Mac OS XI
10) AMD turns things around with their monster chip (Please... I have a lot of stock!)
I claim copyright on any and all ideas from this day forward... especially the Porn on the Gaming systems (maybe even the PC).
Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves, or we know where we can find information upon it. -Samuel Johns
But I can tell you what WON'T happen.
Bluetooth will still be that great technology just around the corner that hardly anyone has an example of.
Cell phones will still not be good at browsing the web or reading e-mail.
Linux won't be the dominant force on the desktop (not for a few years at least).
The United States won't be finished with the job of restoring order in Afghanistan or Iraq.
PC's won't have a decent memory subsystem that can keep up with the CPU's.
The record companies won't have a good solution for distributing music on the Internet. Neither will movie companies.
Robots will not take over the world.
The fast/good/cheap trilemma will not be solved with technology.
Microsoft will still have a bunch of security holes in their OS. So will most distributions of Linux. OpenBSD will not.
NASA will not be able to keep their launch schedule.
The new Matrix movie will not live up to the hype, but it'll still be really good.
OK, to announce one thing that WILL happen in 2003: The Supreme Court will undo the Sonny Bono copyright law. Micky Mouse will be free!
Get your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape
Having amazed everyone by creating a sensible, usable Linux desktop environment for the masses, Lindows will clean up the internals of the OS. Installs and post-install configuration will start getting better and better. Sales of pre-loaded Lindows boxes will spread out of the Wal-Mart niche, and the Linux desktop revolution will gain serious steam.
Red Hat will continue their work integrating KDE/Gnome into a single usuable desktop, spurred on by the growing praise for Lindows. Mandrake, currently the king of the desktop Linux world, will go full steam ahead on matching the desktop work that Lindows and Red Hat are doing, throwing another vendor's hat into the make-the-linux-desktop-not-suck ring.
Sun Microsystems will move into the desktop market, giving a familiar hardware name to Linux desktops, making it eaiser for IT staff to bring Linux PCs into their networks. HPQ will do the same, and Dell will rejoin the Linux desktop world to keep up.
Apple will be keeping an eye on this, and keep refining OS X. OS X will gain popularity with the computer users who favor minimal administration. Mac users will learn the value of Open/Free software, and communication between the Mac/Linux world will grow.
Microsoft will sit in the background, watching the TCO of Windows rise and the TCO of Linux drop, and the path for Linux domination will be ready for the world to walk down.
Steve Ballmer will leave Microsoft to join the circus sideshow, as the only man who can put his foot in his mouth while his head is still up his ass. The Circus will generate billions of revenue, while Microsoft will be forced to have Craig Mundie scream "I Love This Company!" at this years COMDEX.
There will be at least a dozen more Outlook Worms infecting the Internet. People's Inboxes will become so flooded with viruses, that millions will quit using email all together. With the loss of a huge potential market, companies selling weightless, pumpless penis enhancement devices will go out of business, and millions of dollars will still be tied up in Nigerian banks while the King's widow lives in poverty.
Hundreds of people will be arrested for printing paychecks on their computer and trying to cash them at a bank.
The RIAA will create another method to prevent people from copying CD's, this one will be defeatable by a common stapler.
The RIAA will reveal that Hilary Rosen has actually been dead for 5 years, that they've just been propping her up "Weekend at Bernie's" style.
Scott McNealy will release several press releases over the next year bashing Microsoft.
Two big predictions for 12 months:
1) Cell Phone "camming" will become a rage among teenagers, who mainly use it to flash each other. Sprint (under CDMA2000) will benefit greatly from this.
2) A quantum computer will be built using a 2D array of hundreds of quantum dots using Si or GaAs. The theory is there today, all that remains is an efficient read of electron spins. The machine will factor a number in the range of 2^16, which will look much more interesting than IBM's factoring of 14 or whatever.
Here's how I responded to The /. artice about the Cringely preditions last year:
Slashdot will link to every article written by Bob Cringely in 2002. Bob Cringely will start writing for Slashdot, under a level two pseudonym. This post will receive a +5 funny.
Sadly, I was wrong about the third prediction. The second? Hard to say.
1) $100 PC
2) Greater PC/TV integration leveraging wireless networking
3) A Fortune 500 company will deploy desktop Linux. A Fortune 100 company will deploy Open Office.
4) Tech hiring will pick up as corps beef up cybersecurity and integrate handhelds into core business processes
5) IBM buys Sun and changes Java to their open source licence
6) Boucher's bill passes, Berman's bill passes (both modified and clarified), while Hollings bill fails as the tech industry (sans MS) rallies against it.
7) DVDCCA loses both the jurisdiction and on the merits in CA, meanwhile all Federal threats to the DMCA fail, and no major new litigation commenses even though flagrant violations become commonplace.
8) The MS trial concludes by the judge adopting a slightly tougher final judgement than the DOJ version, and both sides declare victory. MS promptly combines innovating new forms of anticompetitive behavior and routine violations of the agreement.
9) US based laws for open source procurement fail, but many succeed in the developing world.
10) Spam increases by 30%. Some lawsuits succeed, others fail. Congress introduces legislation making forged headers illegal.
11) AOL converts its users to the Netscape browser, and web-based XUL applications start to appear. The browser war 2 is declared in the media. Tech users embrace Phoenix as their browser of choice.
12) CD sales revenue will fall by another 10% even though existing P2P networks become unusable. Semi-private, trust based P2P networks become the rage.