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The Coming Air Age
Lovejoy writes "Sixty years ago in The Atlantic Monthly, Igor Sikorsky wrote The Coming Air Age. "Any of us who are alive ten years after this Second World War is won will see and use hundreds of short-run helicopter bus services." He goes on to write about personal helicopters which fit in large garages and that helicopters that are easier to drive than cars, etc.. So, will personal flight ever be viable? Do wildly wrong predictions like this give futurists pause? I think they should."
... when we can have rocket belts?
Jouster
Personal flight won't be a reality until we figure out how to put skip-lines and double-yellows in mid-air to keep people in line :-)
--NBVB
If all this should have a reason, we would be the last to know.
When a man who makes helicopters tells you everyone needs a helicopter, doesn't it sound a lot like a man who makes computers telling you that everyone needs a computer?
Or an Internet connection for that matter...
"Nothing was broken, and it's been fixed." -- Jon Carroll
The problem is that ground is better. Cars go quite fast enough, and while traffic is really bad the fact remains that after a small collision nobody falls to their deaths. And can you imagine the noise pollution from the rotors? Think of one of those things taking off from your neighbor's driveway! Cars are fine for me, where I don't have to worry about watching for other vehicles in 3D, hey it's hard enough when you don't have cars coming up from underneath you cutting you off! We're still on the ground all the time because it's just a better place to be.
//TODO: signature
I'll admit i'm not expert on this. But i do believe the faster you push something through the air the less fuel efficient it becomes. Also, keeping something In the air requires a lot of fuel. You'd think that cramming a lot of poeple into a fast flying machine would eventually become fuel efficient the more you put in, but its a fact that traveling by train is much more fuel efficient than a 767.
My car goes about 300-400 miles on a 15 gallon tank of gas. Imagine how much gas a any kind of helicopter burns in 300 miles keeping itself up and pushing itself through the air, especially with all the crazy turbulence the roters makes.
I have no doubt that fuel will get cheaper in the future and global warming is bunk, but i dont want a bunch of hippies bugging me.
Sneakemail is to spam filters what an ounce of prevention is to a pound of cure.
Flight (still) has too much takeoff and landing overhead. Even if it was faster, people would go with the more convenient transport anyway.
Btw,futurists often seem to forget about people. Even if there were machines that would cook for me, why would I want it? After a stressful day of looking at source code and trying to fix bugs I like to go to the kitchen, grab a beer and start cooking. I'm not going to pay to let some machine take away my hobby!
I am reminded of one of David Brin's essays in which he bashes George Lucas and Star Wars. (Let it be said that I've bashed Lucas and Star Wars myself a few times.) At one point Brin delivers himself of the self-serving observation that while Lucas and others like him are obsessed with the past, Brin himself looks to the future.
Yes, indeedy, where would we be if it weren't for forward-thinkers like Dave Brin? Just about the same place, I guess. Science fiction writers' track record for predicting the future isn't really any better than that of your average "Weekly World News" fortune-teller, except that the fortune-tellers tend to risk their predictive powers on such quotidian affairs as whether Brad Pitt will stay married to whoever that ditz is from "Friends", while SF writers confine themselves to lofty predictions about the fate of human society and technology. Now and again, one of the sci-fi boys will accidentally get something right, or sort of close (thus has Asimov been credited with "predicting" pocket calculators), as opposed to all those other writers who "predicted" that we'd still be using slide rules),.
As I see science fiction writers and futurists, we could have done without the whole clan of them and it wouldn't have made a scrap of difference. But one can say the same thing about any entertainment--I don't propose that entertainment _per se_ is useless, only that SF is just that, entertainment.
hyacinthus.
The FAA requires all of the following:
The end result is that the FAA has made it almost impossible for manufacturers and aircraft owners to improve their products. That means that aircraft safety can't improve, nor can the cost. So the only way to significantly improve an airplane's safety or cost is for the manufacturer to come out with a completely new design go through the entire certification process outlined above.
People believe these things about aviation because the mass media (movies, news reports, etc.) has portrayed aviation in this light in order to make the news more spectacular and to make movies more exciting. But of course, that kind of excitement isn't what you're after when you're flying for real.
The bottom line is that I don't think affordable personal aviation is ever going to happen because I don't believe the FAA will ever let it happen. The trend for the past 30 years has been for airplane prices to increase while at the same time production volume has decreased. These are the symptoms of a dying market.
To resurrect affordable personal aviation, a large manufacturer (like Toyota) will have to get into the game. It will require an investment of billions (most of that will go into the mass production machinery required) and at least a couple of decades. The manufacturer will have to sell moderately capable (150 knots, 1000 mile range, 18,000 foot service ceiling, 4 seats), simple to fly airplanes for between $50,000 and $100,000. They will have to manufacture their own engines because the current manufacturers are still building engines that were designed back in the 1940's, using 1940s production techniques, for a minimum of $20,000 apiece. This will kill just about any other airplane manufacturer, who won't be able to adapt themselves to that kind of competition because the FAA won't let them. It will seriously depress the used airplane market, because nobody in their right mind would pay $70,000 for a 30-year-old 120-knot 4-seater when they can get a 150-knot brand new 4-seater for the same price.
It'll be opposed by everyone: the FAA because they're 0wn3d by the airlines, the airlines because they'll lose a lot of short to medium range business, and many current aircraft owners, who view their aircraft as investments (used aircraft currently appreciate, not depreciate).
But that's what it'll take to make affordable personal aviation a reality.
Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
1. Take the idiot who cut you off this morning with no turn signal and no glance in the mirror while pulling curlers out of her hair and talking on her cell phone.
2. Drag her from her car like you wanted to anyway.
3. Put her in a helicopter with a failed engine and see how well she does autorotating.
As I pilot, I think that personal flight will occur someday, but only after these two prerequisites are achieved:
1. Antigravity, or some propulsion system that is so simple and efficient that falling out of the sky is not going to happen no matter how inattentive the pilot, and
2. An automatic navigation system that will keep all the vehicles in well-defined "lanes" just as they are now.
Needless to say, I think we have a ways to go yet.
Evil is the money of root.
I for one would be petrified to live in a city if everyone was flying. The average driver has enough trouble paying attention on the ground. And we may also assume that many of them barely squeaked by in their driver's exam. I shudder to think of personal flight units sailing all over the place, just waiting for the day I wake up to some asshole talking on his cellphone, crashing through my window. I don't believe that it is possible for this to be made properly safe. I will never trust computer navigation systems either, they're idiots too.
Ginger scares the shit out of me as well. I'd love to pilot one, sure, but I don't need idiots whipping all over the place on these things. In all the various vehicles I've driven, I've never had an accident, for I always drive with the assumption that everyone else on the road is a complete idiot. Ie: Don't trust turn signals, speed changes, etc, without other cues to determine what the hell is really going on in that tiny brain behind the wheel. It seems to have worked so far.
air traffic control is probably the biggest problem.
the ATC system is already overtaxed in busy areas and part of how they cope is by discouraging general aviation. it's certainly technically feasible for personal aircraft to be reliable, affordable, and about as easy to fly as it is to drive a car IF you can get enough people to use them. but if you get enough people to use them you have a traffic management problem far worse than anything we've ever seen on the ground.
face it, one reason we want to travel by air is to avoid traffic jams - but as soon as we put everyone in the air we need to find ways to keep everyone from hitting each other, and to do that we end up imposing the same kinds of constraints we have on the ground. at least on the ground we can often survive collisions between vehicles.
Keith
One problem with choppers is that they are hard to fly. They are harder than planes, and planes are harder to fly than cars are to drive. This used to be a big problem, but I think we are fast approching a time when any idiot could fly a chopper using a force-ball (you know, some 6-axis controller) and having a PC do all the work of controlling individual axis. On a side note, I think that it's much more likey that gyrocopters will ever be common than 'standard' helecopters.
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
Well of course it assumes a few things...like the rotors are intact...but let's deal with only one emergency at a time. The truth is that it's extremely rare to loose a rotor. Much more likely is the loss of engine power, or hydraulics, or maybe a dynamic component malfunction. I've practiced 100's of autorotations without incident and suffered one intermediate gearbox malfunction. The gearbox malfunction resulted in a crash.
As far as a place to land is concerned, any parking lot, large backyard, baseball diamond or other area large enough to accommodate the length of the bird is sufficient...something you can't say about any airplane. Also, helos glide pretty well. So finding a spot to set down isn't that hard unless you're in some really rugged terrain. If you're in flight flying low (nap of the earth) in anything and loose power you're toast (unless you have an ejection seat...not available on most civilian aircraft), but a good pilot doesn't need much altitude to successfully auotrotate and walk away from the landing.
And there's no way you can compare loosing power in a car with loosing power in an aircraft...unless it's comparison out of ignorance.
One thing that most people don't understand is how hard it is to fly a helicopter. It is not as simple as driving a car where you go and take a test to prove you understand the traffic laws and then go out on a road course with a DMV person for 15 to 20 minutes.
It takes years of schooling in order to be granted a helicopter pilots liscense. This is very costly, and requires a lot of time.
It is not uncommon for people to go to college for flight (airplanes), and once successfully passing their flight exams to go on and study helicopter operation.
My little sister is currently studying to be a commerical airline pilot and it will take her 4 years at the number flight school in the USA. Then if she wants to persue helicopters she has to take more classes and spent a lot more time gaining the airtime in a helicopter with an instructor, only then will she receive her helicoptiers liscense from the FAA. The FAA is strick and sometimes tough, and this is for good reason, would you trust any idiot with a piece of machinery like this? If they crash the thing into a crowded area they kill a whole lot people.
Helicopters are not like cars, when you wreck a car, most of the time you can survive, or if you die, you don't kill anyone else. When you crash a helicopiter you are probably automatically dead.
...never piloted an aircraft. The glide characteristics of most airplanes do not allow for "miles" of unpowered flight. A Cessna has a glide ratio of about 9:1 @ 90 KIAS. That means you can go forward 9 feet for every foot you drop. 1,000 feet up equals 9,000 feet forward. Hardly miles! Also, without power your control surfaces do not work as well and a stall is a fairly typical result...unless you've spent a lot of time training for engine failure.
As someone pointed out below, in a helo you have a lot of energy stored in your wings (the rotors) when you loose engine power and helos don't stall in flight. As you "drop like a rock" you can increase the "power" in your wings and use that power as you approach the ground you can trade that power for lift and reduce your rate of descent...landing at a very survivable rate. I've practiced 100's of these and experienced one real one. We landed hard but the bird and the crew were unhurt.
In Sao Paulo, Brazil, there are somewhere around 300 private helicopters that those who can afford them use to avoid traffic and crime. They use them just like the plebes use cars. The best article I found on the topic is at aviation today (here).
Of course, having 300 'copters in a city of unpteen million isn't exactly what the man predicted, but the patter of use is consistent.
Personal aircraft will never be mainstream until they can reliably fly themselves from point 'a' to point 'b' without direct control from the passengers. If you give people control, it would be a horrible problem.
Think of all the times people break out of the confines of traffic when the opportunity presents itself. How many times have you seen people drive up an embankment to get from a slow freeway to the feeder road? How could you possibly police all of the guaranteed violations of this type? This assumes that there is some form of infrastructure to create 'sky lanes' for people to stay in. What kind of mess would there be without some form of organized lanes?
What about parking lots? How would you like to navigate the chaos of a parking lot in 3D? Would you find people in some sort of holding pattern over Woolworths so that they could make a mad dash for the "good spot" when someone takes off? Imagine an early morning commute where people do not trickle into a parking area because traffic lights limit their access, and lanes do not keep them in single file. If everyone decides to leave home at 'the perfect time' because they know exactly how long it takes them to fly to the office, then everyone who needs to be at work at 8:am will get to the parking lot at essentially the same time.
What about the noise? When was the last time you heard a quiet aircraft? I can hear a single traffic helicopter approaching from a mile away when I am in my car. Think of the decibels generated by a freeway of such noisemakers.
What about the fuel efficiency? these things have to maintain flight even at standstill. Ground vehicles do not have to expend energy to counteract gravity unless they are moving uphill. By the time automated personal flying vehicles become practical (by not allowing the occupants to break traffic laws), how efficient will ground vehicles be?
I am rarely a naysayer of future ideas, but this idea has so many impracticalities that I find it to be a no-brainer. It will be nothing more then the folley of idiots for a very long time to come.
The general public is too stupid to manuver safely in 3D.
I've read a bunch of threads from people who talk about how dangerous it will be to have so many people flying around, and I am reminded of how when cars first appeared, they would be escorted in town by sentries waving red flags because it was thought that the cars would be so inherently dangerous.
The currently designed helicopter will not be the flying car of the future. As master Yoda would say "No, there is another". Meet the cyclogiro, our Navy's latest secret weapon, and one of Russia's finest inventions. ;) They operate on the concept of cycloidal propulsion (see Google), which is mechanically complicated but more efficient and quiter than conventional designs.
As a pilot I can tell you, affordable flight already exists. Expensive, yes, but no more expensive than a nice car. IF, of course, you are willing to shop, buy used, and don't require 'sexiness' in your aircraft.
... whose mechanic has had his car for over a month. I've never been without my airplane for a month.
A two seater Cessna 150 or 152 in good condition goes for about $20k, and will generally do 95-100 knots TAS and burns about 7 gallons per hour.
A Beech Sundowner (my personal choice) will hold 3 adults plus fuel, has a range of six hours (more than most people's bladders), does about 105-110 knots, goes for around $40,000 and burns 8-9 gallons / hour.
Annuals typically run $1,000-$2,000, fuel typically costs $2.50/gallon. Insurance is typically $800/year or so (post 9/11), less if you get your instrument rating.
1. The FAA also mandates inspections by FAA certified aircraft mechanics each year at the maximum or after so many hours of flight.
Part 91 (personal aircraft) only requires an annual. Commercial air carriers must submit to more rigorous inspections, such as 100 hour inspections, etc.
If you miss an inspection the aircraft is forbidden to fly as it is not airworthy.
In Germany, if your car misses its biannual inspection, it is illegal to drive.
The inspections can take some time and any defects found must be corrected before the craft can fly.
Some defects which affect air worthiness must be fixed. Others, which may be a good idea for safety but are not required to insure air worthiness you can either fix or put off. A wise pilot chooses to fix such things, but there are those who do not. Part of getting an annual done is discussing and working out with your mechanic what should be fixed now, and what makes more sense to put off.
A Piper Navajo inspection costs upwards of $2,500 and the aircraft may be out of service for some time.
As for time, annuals typically don't last more than a week or two, unless something is seriously wrong or a part is backordered.
Which is what happened to a colleague of mine
2. Detailed logs must be kept of each flight, each repair, and each add-on. If the logs are not correct, spanning the whole life of the aircraft, it is not airworthy.
Not true. First, you are confusing pilot logs (logs of each flight, kept by and for the pilot in their own log book) with aircraft logs, of which there are two: airframe logs and engine logs.
Second, the only thing that has to be certified is that the aircraft is currently airworthy, i.e. a certified aircraft mechanic has performed an annual within the last twelve months and signed off that the aircraft is airworthy. If logs are missing that is irrelevant, so long as the log showing the most recent annual is intact. Missing logs will decrease the value of the plane, they will not affect its air worthiness unless you've had the bad luck to lose the log book containing the most recent annual.
3. The manufacturer and FAA provide notices of problems that sometimes require inspections, repairs, and replacement. The repairs must be complied with. You are not allowed to fly around with defects.
If you are part 91, most ADs are to be complied with at the next annual. Commercial aircraft have more stringent requirements, of course. If an AD does require immediate inspection and repair (it happens, but is rare), that is akin to an automobile recall.
4. Avionics are expensive to purchase, install, and maintain. The last time I checked three or four years ago a collision avoidance system cost $25,000. This would tend to put the price of the aircraft out of reach of most folks.
Avionics are vastly overpriced. But most private planes do not have collision avoidance systems, moving map GPSes (Garmin 540 goes for about $14k installed). Most have the basic radio stack and navigational instruments, which are included in the prices I mentioned before. But yes, if you are feeling greedy for the latest fancy equipment it will cost you dearly, as will the latest, faster aircraft. So don't be greedy, fly an older, reliable, less sexy aircraft instead.
All in all, I think that the typical person is not well suited to this degree of complexity, care, and expense and it won't happen any time soon.
Agreed. However, the Germans don't just let anyone drive. A drivers license typically requires about $2,000 for the training and a fairly rigorous exam. Not as rigorous as a pilot exam and checkride by any stretch, but far more rigorous than the silly tests we in America take.
However, if everyone were given rigorous flying lessons in high school (as we are drivers ed) and the prerequisites to becoming a private or instrument rated pilot remained as they are (fairly rigorous), I think the majority of people could become very competent pilots. Not every idiot, as we have with cars, but perhaps as many as 70-80%.
Of course, the skies would be vastly more crowded, and that would present its own set of problems. Those issues are being addressed (smart autopilots, vastly better navigation and guidance equipment, etc.), but alas, that will be expensive.
However, if someone wishes to become a competent pilot and fly today, in America at least it can be done on a budget, if you are careful and willing to forego the latest, sexiest toys in favor of used hand-me-downs.
The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
Why didn't this happen?
1. No matter how much automation is used to reduce manufacturing costs, air transport would use far more real resources than cars currently do. I mean more fuel, more materials, higher grade parts....everything would have been more expensive.
2. Lets face the truth here. As a whole, the human race isn't really that smart. The average individual makes countless poor and irresponsible decisions, gets stuck in stupid patterns and addictions, stops learning most new things past a certain age...(the list continues) I'd also say that most slashdotters (myself included) fall into part of this category. I know I've made plenty of dumb mistakes, even when I was aware that I was doing so.
There are simply not enough individuals in society capable of safely piloting these vehicles to put them into common use. There are not enough responsible mechanics who could keep fleets of these things running safely. Its not a lack of education : I'm saying we couldn't really find enough people to run this system who would be responsible enough.
3. The current system of cars for (relatively) short distances and planes for long distance does work. While many complain of long commutes, citizens do make it to work...the system functions. It would take considerable investment to build a short distance air transport system that was really significantly better than the compromise in use today.
How can this be built in the future?
By removing the human from much of it. At some point (it may require computers "Turing capable") it should be practical to build computer controlled flying vehicles where the human may lack even manual overrides.
To ease the maintainence problem, the flying machines moving parts would all be embedded with arrays of diagonostic sensors and the vehicle would refuse to start if a fault were detected. Any monkey of a mechanic could hopefully then swap out the faulty component, safely repairing the vehicle.