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Downloading The Mind

bluemug writes "The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's popular science radio show Quirks and Quarks aired a piece this weekend about Ray Kurzweil's ideas on downloading human minds to silicon. (The interview is available in MP3 or OGG.) Kurzweil figures we'll have strong AI by 2029 and be able to copy a human mind about a decade after that. Book your appointment now!"

23 of 392 comments (clear)

  1. Sure! by Koyaanisqatsi · · Score: 5, Funny

    Book your appointment now

    Yeah, I'll go check it out on my flying car, while the robot takes care of things at home.

    1. Re:Sure! by troc · · Score: 5, Funny

      Flying car?

      That's soooo last decade. Surely you will be using your household teleportation booth?

      You could combine it with a trip to the tactile 3D hologram suite.

      At least tell me you have a subspace communications port or how else will you download the 1Tb bug updates to Microsoft Windows XXXP with "use this browser or else" Interuniversenet Explorationer?

      Not that I am doubting there's enough silicon out there for a few brain dumps, no, of course not. And anyway Skynet will protect us from the Matrix.

      Troc

      --
      Troc's dubious podcast and blog: http://www.trocnet.net
    2. Re:Sure! by cshotton · · Score: 5, Insightful
      I've met Ray on several social occasions and discussed his vision for the future. There is a huge flaw (or blind spot) in his vision. All of his massive advances in AI and general computing functionality are based on extrapolating trends like Moore's Law, Metcalf's Law, etc. into the near future. He infers that because they predict that massive CPU power and network bandwidth will be available, that the software to match it will naturally come along, too. Ray's a hardware guy, for sure. Unfortunately, we've already seen a plateau in the demand for CPU cycles and network bandwidth. Without market forces to drive these trends, why assume they'll be sustained?

      The problem with depending on hardware and network advances to drive his vision is that software engineering simply cannot keep up with the pace of advances on the hardware front. Anyone who has ever read the "Mythical Man Month" understands this at a basic level. Humans simply cannot organize themselves well enough to tackle software projects of the magnitude that Ray envisions, at least not by 2029.

      Ray dismisses this argument by saying we'll have software that writes the software. Well, there's a tautology for you. If you can't write the software you need because it's too complicated, how can you possibly be expected to write the software to write that software? Genetic algorithms are useful for some very specific trial and error sorts of problems. But using them to random walk our way to a billion lines of debugged, functional AI code seems a bit of a stretch.

      My money sure isn't on Ray's pony...

      --

      Shut up and eat your vegetables!!!
    3. Re:Sure! by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Understand anything?

      My Windows 2000 SP2 Athlon doesn't understand HFS+. My OS 10.2 iMac needed alot of help understanding a .sid Saturday morning.

      And niether of them know anything about the cordless phone, nor have they met my washer and dryer or the sexy new fridge just 3 meters away.

      As for all the awareness coming to the desktop near you, I'll state here and for the record, each new CPU from Intel and AMD will be brought to thier knees by the new versions of Gnome, Windows, and Quake, leaving the desktop user with the same number of free cycles as before.

      Now for this mythical AI thats coming surely by 2040, I say poppycock! My stance towards such "advanced thinking", and "futurists" is the same stance I have towards people telling me the World is ending right after the World Series.

      I didn't buy this whole Strong AI nonsense a while back, but I did read one of his books. I was left with a sense of wasting my time then.

      I popped over to Ray Kurzweil's site and poked around. This bit got my attention.

      "If we can combine strong AI, nanotechnology and other exponential trends, technology will appear to tear the fabric of human understanding by around the mid 2040s by my estimation."

      Those are alot of "Ifs". Strong AI, which is a buzz word. Nanotechnology, which is something that is built 1 or 3 or 10 at a time and photographed, but does nothing at this point. And my favorite "other exponential trends" In other words this whole idea of a Bowie-esque Savior Machine depends on crap he doesn't understand or can't put in words, but he is sure is coming.

      Poppycock.

    4. Re:Sure! by nanojath · · Score: 5, Insightful
      I think you can go beyond the mere technical objections (which are entirely reasonable) and get down with the ideas the basic assumptions feed into. Human intelligence is the result of a, just to throw a random figure out there, 3.5 billion year process of evolution (the exact figure is heavily debatable but that's a ballpark).


      The capacity for thought we have is an intensely complex combination of the neural processes of survival and reproduction, with all those billions of years behind it, plus the geologically recent development of a whole lot of extra cognitive juice in the frontal lobe department, plus a couple of million years of tweaking this wetware system in the context of social, tool-using behavior, plus several tens of thousands years of social behavior combined with the meta-social instruction of language, art, text and such...


      We have some bare inklings and theories of how we acquire language, intelligence, social functioning. The barest inklings. We're working on it. There is still a helluva lot of controversy on what exactly intelligence is, and no end in sight.


      At the dint of enormous effort we have computers that can take a stab at interpreting meaning of isolated phrases based on context and a whole lotta cultural and semantic training by humans. The most powerful computers built for the job can hit-and-miss beat the finest human chess players... a game with a fully mathematically limited scope which is almost entirely susceptible to a brute force approach. "Seeing" computers can be trained to make some decent interpretations based on heavily patterned information. Voice recognition still has to be tuned to every individual, and it's pretty damn iffy for all that. Nowhere near to a computer that can hold anything resembling a conversation.


      So where in hell do we get an estimate like "Strong AI by...?" As far as I'm concerned science has barely framed the question of what that would mean... and only in qualitative terms at that. So I'll tell you where these pointless predictions come from: ballpark some meaningless figure about biology - numbers of neural gaps, firing rates, impulses per second, whatever. Connect it in some arbitrary manner to some measurable function in a computer, extrapolate based on some law of technological development with far less than a century of statistical evidence and no basis mechanism whatever behind it (statistical evidence without an explanation is ALWAYS suspect in interpretation) and - viola! - you're a futurist. Or, as I like to say, a worthless dumbass.


      ANd how do you get from there to the process of downloading consciousness, despite the fact that there is not even an inkling of a glimmer of the slightest valid theory about how an active and continuously shifting neourochemical proccess of personality and intellectual template, stored memory and present cognition (not to even touch the primal, the emotional, the glandular, the spiritual) gets translated to something that can be interpreted by a machine or stored in a meaningful sense or caused to be active outside of a biological framework? Well you just pull that one right out of your ass because it doesn't have even the flimsiest basis in the "reality" of doodling with a few facts and figures on your scientific calculator.


      I'm not sure exactly why but the idea of people making carreers based on this bullshit makes me so mad I could kick puppies.

      --

      It Is the Nature of Information to Transgress Artificial Boundaries

    5. Re:Sure! by Alsee · · Score: 5, Informative

      Genetic algorithms are useful for some very specific trial and error sorts of problems. But using them to random walk...

      Then you do not understand genetic algorithms. If you are a programmer I recommend you read up on them, they are far more powerful than a simple random walk. Mathematical analysis shows tremendous implicit parallelism. You aren't merely working on X individuals, you are working on X individuals times Y schema, where Y is a monsterously large number. Mutation is the least signifigant thing going on in the evolution process.

      Unfortunately it is to complicated and mathmatical to explain here, but if you are up for it try this Google search on "genetic algorithms" "implicit parallelism".

      Remember, this is the process that created humans. When people hear "evolution" they usualy think "mutation". Mutation is almost insignifigant. The power lies in recombination and immense implicit parallelism.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
  2. Eternal life? by Jeppe+Salvesen · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I have been thinking about this for a while now.. If you can download the mind - will we be able to upload it as well at some point in the future? I'm thinking along the lines of falling asleep in a body that's in its 70s, and then waking up in a body in its teens. It would certainly be interesting to relive my teens. A few things that could be done differently..

    --

    Stop the brainwash

    1. Re:Eternal life? by nagora · · Score: 5, Insightful
      If you can download the mind - will we be able to upload it as well at some point in the future?

      It wouldn't work like that. Imagine that the copy of your mind is uploaded into a new body before you die. Do you think your consciousness would suddenly transfer to the new body? All the copying could do is create a new consciousness in the new body, your old one (ie, you) would still grow old and die in the old body, never to return.

      This is also the argument against Star Trek transporters. You die each time you use one but a new person is created at the other end that thinks it's you. You don't know anything about this, of course, you've just been disintegrated!

      TWW

      --
      "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
    2. Re:Eternal life? by ChrisJones · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Isn't that arguably the same thing? You probably don't have many (if any at all) of the cells you had when you were born, so you've been mostly disintegrated many times, you just didn't notice it.
      If there is a continuity of conciousness, which the transporters provide, then you are really the same person, you are just made of different atoms.
      As for the down/uploading brain contents thing, well, that is a bit more complex - if you can copy the contents of a brain and upload them to another, then you have fork()'d yourself. Either you kill the old body and have it's fork of your conciousness die, or you have two of yourself.
      I'm not sure if the human mind could cope with the trauma of first finding itself in a new body, then seeing its old body die. It sounds simple enough, but it would take quite an adjustment!
      Besides, I don't actually believe it's possible, I find it reassuring that our brains are probably too complex for us to possibly understand ;)

      Either route, uploading or transporters, is a great way to build a clone army of yourself though :)

      --
      Chris "Ng" Jones
      cmsj@tenshu.net
      www.tenshu.net
    3. Re:Eternal life? by Washizu · · Score: 5, Funny

      None of the atoms present in our bodies right now, were there 10 years ago.

      Please explain how tattoos last longer than 10 years.

      --
      OddManIn: A Game of guns and game theory.
    4. Re:Eternal life? by BlueGecko · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Probably the best way to look at it is like a fork statement in a Unix program. Suddenly, one program becomes two, with different PIDs, etc. And you could make the case that the one with the original PID is the original program, and I suppose that in many ways you'd be right, but the fact remains that the new PID begins with EXACTLY the same memory and EXACTLY the same register states. The only thing different is where that memory is located. Clearly, the programs are seperate entities, yet they'll follow exactly the same patterns (ignoring their different data input) and we might argue that, from the program's perspective, the PID is entirely artbitrary and it has absolutely no way of knowing which one was not the original program, since they start off in identical states but respond to different stimuli. I actually think that twins are a very good metaphor, only you have to imagine that the twins both have common memories for a certain number of years.

      I honestly don't think words like "dual consciousness" or "death" even apply in situations like this; we need some new vocabulary.

  3. The Age of Spiritual Machines. by russianspy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I actually read about half of the book. I could not finish it as I was unable to read cause I was laughing too hard. I am not saying he's TOTALLY wrong. There may be a time when we will have computers that will be smarter than we are. When we will be able to download our minds into the computer. All of that is fine, his timeline is totally unrealistic.

    A couple of points:
    1. The estimates as to how much processing power is in an average human brain vary quite a bit. Is each neuron a bit? It can have multiple inputs - maybe it's something closer to a byte or a word? How and where is memory stored? Just haveing the raw processing power does not mean we will have the knowledge to USE it. We are seriously lacking in the knowledge departament.
    2. Social implications. How many good technologies are set back, or even stopped because the people are not ready for it? Do you really think that an average person will simply accept and approve of the ability to live forever in a computer? All the religions of the world are going to have a field day with that. Don't think so? We've had genetically modified crops for a while now. They're safe and far more efficient. Why are there still countries that will not allow such crops to be used for human consumption?

    In the end it reminds me of a story I've heard of a long time ago. I'm going from memory so you'll have to forgive me if I get the details wrong.

    It happens during the height of Artificial Intelligence (when a lot of people thought we will have talking, seeing, thinking computers in just a few decades ;-) ). There was a conference, where one of the scientists started making wild predictions. Something like Kurzweil. Computers are supposed to be able to see (image recognition) as well as humans in 20 years, think in 30, etc. One of the other scientists has asked that guy:

    "Why are you saying this? All of those problems are quite hard. It is unlikely anyone will achieve those things in that time."

    The first scientist answered:

    "True, but notice that every date I've given is AFTER my retirement."

    What a way to generate funding, eh? This kind of things simply hurt the field in general.

    And that's my gripe for this week. I feel a LOT better now, thank you!

  4. Floppy minds by Glanz · · Score: 5, Funny

    Well, most people I know could put their minds on floppies, and it would still leave enough space for a nice copy of FDISK........... [fmind?]

    --
    Rien n'est plus beau que le creux du 0.
  5. Brain Dump! by irn_bru · · Score: 5, Funny

    Wow. A literal brain dump. Just don't use Eproms or you might loose your mind...

  6. Downloading only a third of the problem... by Zergwyn · · Score: 5, Insightful
    and not necessarily even the harder third. It is one thing to be able to copy all the information in a human brain. Especially as storage becomes holographic, with 3 dimensional light patterns being used, even everything a person knows could probably be fit. The problems remaining are two fold: how to access the information, and then what to do with it.

    Copying the information would require an extremely sophisticated, as well as invasive, set of technologies. Nanotech would probably need to be used to get the proper connections throughout the mind. As far as simply linking the brain, many people have discussed 'plugs' and such that would intercept external sensory/control feeds, such as the optic nerve and spinal cord, and then allow that information to be manipulated/redirected. Thus signals to move a leg could be altered so that they would move a mechanical leg, or even something else entirely. In such a way people could transplant their brains into robotic/cyborg surrogates, not even necessarily human looking. A fighter pilot, for instance, might just transport his brain into the plane. Thus the command to 'run' or 'walk' might be mapped onto engine throttling or some such. External camera's would send a feed, acting as 'eyes', etc. However, none of this makes any attempt at all to actually access stuff in reverse, from the brain. We record memories and such in the structure of the main brain, and thus something would need to go into the brain to read those. And because the 3-D structure of the brain is so critical, preserving the meta-information of how the other memories and such were encoded is also critical. Otherwise, you might end up with a record of memories and thoughts, but no way to actually connect those to form the personality.

    Heh, I seem to be ending up with a long post, but the last thing to deal with, assuming sucessful duplication (including the metainformation) is "what now?" A way would have to be found to basically create an artificial neural net that would be able to recreate the exact structure of the original brain. Who knows, it might be possible to do such a thing virtually, having different sectors connected to each other and thus having a person exist in cyberspace. That, however, is pure speculation.

    I actually find a lot of the stuff going on very exciting. Brains seem to last a lot longer then the body supporting them does anyway, so being able to basically have your brain in a very strong container that could be moved from body to body would probably work pretty well, and could potentially be very doable. However, total artifical replacement seems a long ways off. In some ways, what he is talking about in this article is sort of like cryrogenics today. You can get yourself frozen, but for the time being there is no way to ever undo the process.

  7. Thought experiment by Fweeky · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Say you have a class of nanobot which can absorb and replace the function of a single neuron.

    You inject yourself with a load of them, and it starts absorbing neurons and taking their place. Eventually, your entire mind ends up running on these replacements, each of which behaves just like the organic neuron it replaced. You've been concious all the way through.

    Now, assume each of these is able to communicate it's inputs to a machine on the outside which is able to simulate neurons en masse. They start to disable themselves and telling those around them to get their signal from this machine instead of them.

    Eventually, you end up with a load of simulated neurons which are running on this machine, linked to the nerves through whatever method they use to communicate and a bunch of these neuronbots.

    The simulated one is functionally identical to the original organic brain, except now it's got the potential to be pysically a lot more robust. Continuity was never lost, and all that was destroyed was a few neurons at a time, who's function was replaced.

    1. Re:Thought experiment by perfects · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Thought experiments like that are fun, and yours is convincing, but consider some of the implications...

      During the transfer from inside to outside, suppose you use a machine that has redundant circuits. Each nanobot is replace by a trio of simulated external neurons, so that they can check each other for errors. (If the presumably-binary output of the three disagree, the majority wins and the disagreeing unit syncs to the final result.)

      Ok, up to now it's exactly the same situation that you describe, but with additional reliability.

      But after the transfer is complete... The trio-links are broken, resulting in 3 perfectly synchronized systems.

      Which one is you?

      I'm not sure that "continuity" proves anything. Maybe your original consciousness would die slowly, neuron by neuron, as the new consciousness comes to life. If it even does come to life.

      Honestly, I don't think the human race yet has the terms to describe the problem, much less speculate about the answer. It's fun to talk about, but so was "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?"

  8. A decade after 2029? by BluBrick · · Score: 5, Funny

    But the world ends at GMT 03:14:07, Tuesday, January 19, 2038!

    Uhh, pencil me in for the 18th... just in case.

    --
    Ahh - My eye!
    The doctor said I'm not supposed to get Slashdot in it!
  9. Old News by BoBaBrain · · Score: 5, Funny

    We've been making partial brain dumps for years. They're called "Books".

    --
    I am a Karma Library.
  10. Highly Skeptical by dcollins · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No, I very much doubt these kinds of predictions (and it's got nothing to do with the issue of the transferrence step).

    What counts as our "minds" are simply far too tied into the physical instantiation of our bodies. (Not that "mind" is too abstract, but that it's not abstract enough for separation from our bodies.) If I make a computer-based simulation of myself, will it get tired? Hungry? Thirsty? Itchy? Horny? Sick? If not, can it then get excited? Scared? Concerned? Bored? Will it have any emotional reactions at all, if all the standard physical stimuli are removed?

    Even if all the "human" inputs are replaced or simulated -- you've still got an added problem of a new level of "hardware breakdowns" on whatever platform is running the simulation. Suddenly you've also got to deal with the various downtimes, pauses, glitches, etc., that will break the illusion of it being the same "mind" as in the original person.

    People are simply too much a construct of their wetware to be able to remove their "minds" as a separate set of procedures.

    --
    We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
  11. There're a lot of reasons why Kurzweil is wrong by Nutrimentia · · Score: 5, Interesting

    "Downloading" a brain is a lot more complicated than copying a harddrive. Even if we figure out how the brain works, and then figure out how this contributes to a mind (neither of which we are close to understanding at all), downloading a brain is just a duplication of you. You yourself wouldn't notice anything, but your copy's memories would depart from your at the point of the brain scan from which the copy is instigated.

    Ugh, there are so many loose ends its hard to pick one to pull on. Someone mentioned before, but your body is more than just a bunch of neurons floating in fluid. Your mind, your person, your sanity rely on constant bodily feedback. Your mind isn't just the brain, its the entire nervous system, head to toe. (check out Antonio Damasio's books Decartes's Error and The Feeling of What Happens for a thrilling discussion of this).

    George Dyson's book Darwin Among the Machines doesn't address the stupendously anthropocentric idea of human intelligence on silicon but does explore some possibilities behind the emergence of intelligent (not necessarily conscious) systems on their own.

    I read Dyson's book after stumbling across it browsing at a bookstore, only to learn that he lived about 2 miles from me! I went down to his boat shop and introduced myself and have had a few chats with him. He talked about Kurzweil a little bit and he actually gave me a copy of The Age of Spiritual Machines. At the time I was a naive fanboy (as opposed to the seasoned fanboy I am now) and asked him if he could write something in the book (I had him sign the Darwin book earlier). He declined, asking me with the ever present Dyson eyesmile, "What am I supposed to say? Sorry this book isn't as good as mine?" It was very humble humor, don't read it wrong.

    I read Spiritual Machines and enjoyed it, if for no other reason that it provided a fun exercise in saying "that's a nice idea, but it won't work for these reason..." It addresses a lot of concerns and the whole identity dissolution theme was rather interesting to play along with. Still, I don't think that his future is a likely one.

    Bah, I'm just rambling. Short end to a long story: Kurzweil's ideas are fun to read and worth the time spent if you have time to kill, but are highly unlikely. Copying humans into computers is a much bigger problem than just raw clock speed, which is what he boils it down to.

    Here's a link to a page about Kurzweilian Singularity. Its worth checking out if you haven't read any of this stuff before.

  12. This seems slightly backwards by shimmin · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Kurzweil figures we'll have strong AI by 2029 and be able to copy a human mind about a decade after that.

    It seems to me that the ability to copy a human mind is almost prerequisite to strong AI. Sure, the "great AI winter" is at least partially due to the crash government funding the field enjoyed in the late 80's / early 90's drying up as suddenly as it emerged, but AI has always been a field prone to too-early predictions. It seems that with each new metaphor we invent for describing the human brain, we also convince ourselves that our minds really are as simple as our metaphors suggest. But Turing thought that human-level mimicry would be possible by 1990 (while at the same time vastly underestimating the quality of hardware that would be available in 1990).

    There's a real possibility that we just aren't smart enough to figure out how we work, and so the only route to strong AI is to make monkey-see, monkey-do copies. And while procreation is a time-honored method of doing that, the structure of the brain suggests that serialized output was not high on God's list of priorities, and the biological format rather resists studies. So, I often think that we might have to be able to emulate the brain in silico or some other more easily-studied medium before we have a chance of understanding what makes that brain tick.

  13. Why not? by Goonie · · Score: 5, Interesting
    But I hardly think you'll be able to understand the underlying processes going on in the brain, particularly how the brain evolves new pathways etc.

    If you're claiming that we don't know that much about how the brain works, I'd agree with you. If you're claiming that it's going to be tough to figure out how it all works, I'd probably agree with you there as well.

    However, if you're claiming that science can never understand the brain, I'd have to strongly disagree with you. As an atheist, I don't think there's anything so special about the brain. There's no soul there, put there by some random deity. There's no magic. It's just a lump of protein mixed with water, in essence. Sure, it's a marvellously complex lump of protein. but it's still a lump of protein. We've made a heck of a lot of progress understanding the behaviour of lots of other types of stuff using science. What makes this particular lump of protein any different?

    Can anyone give me a non-religious argument why, at some stage in the possibly distant future, that the workings of the brain won't be entirely comprehensible to humans?

    --

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
    --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)